Ideal ladder position

Coach_Required

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Lose one game and finish 5th then we are done, but as previously said if that happens then we just arent good enough.

Perfect ladder position for us is either 4th v Geelong or 3rd v West Coast or Brisbane 1st up, then if we lose we end up on the other side of the draw in finals.
 

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Coach_Required

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as long as we avoid WCE at Optus I'm happy, that place will be a cauldron and i don't fancy our chances, haven't played well against WCE in recent times
We have played them only once in almost 2 years LOL and that was in Perth. I was concerned about West Coast a week ago but actually think they should be concerned about us just as much.

West Coast are spluttering along playing in patches during a game just like us, they arent as unbeatable as people think.
 

aislegi

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Except if there is a lucky kick in both matches - we could lose those two and still be good enough. The Eagles this week is the game we should fear the most. Granted we due to lose one against the Lions, what are we, 11 on the trot, but it should get to 12 on the MCG. These quirky things - bet we then have to play them again in a Qualifying Final ala North in the Elimination. Murphy and his ******* laws!
You can't underestimate the role of luck but if we lose either of our next two games I don't see why we would turn the tables in the finals
 

tugga

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The squiggle shows the odds of us finishing in various spots. Still more likely to finish in the top 4 than out of it.


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Yep we could lose this week and win the following week and finish 4th and go to Perth.
Likewise we could finish 6th and likely meet one of the Adelaide teams.
Whatever happens, happens.
I think we are more likely to finish top 4 though
 

Michaels

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from a completely selfish perspective I hope we play Brisbane in Brisbane for week 1, would be an extreme amount of luck for me given I will be away up on the Gold Coast that week so I could make a detour and get to the game!


I think Adelaide will do us a favor and knock the pies off this week, so I see our likely finishing position as 4th.
 

Phar Ace

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from a completely selfish perspective I hope we play Brisbane in Brisbane for week 1, would be an extreme amount of luck for me given I will be away up on the Gold Coast that week so I could make a detour and get to the game!


I think Adelaide will do us a favor and knock the pies off this week, so I see our likely finishing position as 4th.
We share the same selfish streak - praying for Gabba final too!
 

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The Goon

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Link please as it would be interesting what the odds are. Yes I said 90% chance of winning at least one game which would just about do it. Collingwood v Crows will decide it if we only win one game. Or we have to belt Brisbane.
Doesn't seem to give the exact %, but you can click through to other analysis sites that do.
 

TigerImposter

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Silly question.

The ideal ladder position is where we finish that allows us to play at the G, all other alternatives are less attractive.

Obviously top 4 & G...
 

TigerImposter

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So according to Mr Squiggle the probability of Richmond beating the Eagles is equal to the probability of Richmond beating The Lions =0.63

Therefore
Pr(HH)=0.63x0.63= 0.40 rounded off

Pr(HT)=1-(0.40+0.14)=0.46 rounded off
Pr(TT)=0.37x0.37=0.14 rounded off

So Mr Squiggle is saying
Richmond has an 86% chance of winning at least one game and a 14% chance of losing both.
The probability of winning both games is at 40% although we start favourites in both.
 

Cotcho

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If we finish fifth it's because we're not good enough
Lose one game and finish 5th then we are done, but as previously said if that happens then we just arent good enough.

Perfect ladder position for us is either 4th v Geelong or 3rd v West Coast or Brisbane 1st up, then if we lose we end up on the other side of the draw in finals.
I see what you guys are saying but I can't stand this whole, "if we can't do X then we weren't good enough". What does the outcome of one match have to do with the ability of the team overall? No team has ever had an undefeated season has it? It's not logical to say this as luck and a whole variety of factors come into premiership calculations. You only have to look at the difference in 2017 and 2018 to see how circumstances can play a part. IMO we are a Dylan Grimes suspension in Round 3 off being top of the ladder. If the oblong shaped ball takes one different bounce in the Eagles/Collignwood game from a couple of weeks ago and the eagles steal the game we are basically locked for a top 4 spot. None of that changes "how good" we are. lol
 

Coach_Required

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I see what you guys are saying but I can't stand this whole, "if we can't do X then we weren't good enough". What does the outcome of one match have to do with the ability of the team overall? No team has ever had an undefeated season has it? It's not logical to say this as luck and a whole variety of factors come into premiership calculations. You only have to look at the difference in 2017 and 2018 to see how circumstances can play a part. IMO we are a Dylan Grimes suspension in Round 3 off being top of the ladder. If the oblong shaped ball takes one different bounce in the Eagles/Collignwood game from a couple of weeks ago and the eagles steal the game we are basically locked for a top 4 spot. None of that changes "how good" we are. lol
I'm clearly saying if we cant beat the Eagles at the G on Sunday then finishing 5th is more than likely, especially if Collingwood knock over Adelaide. If we finish 5th and West Coast 2nd then even if we win our finals before hand we are on a collision course with West Coast in Perth for the Prelim.

So if we dont beat West Coast at home this weekend then we have no one else to blame but ourselves. It's shaping up to be our biggest game for the year.
 

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