Analysis If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest player of all time?

If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest pla


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Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
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He didn’t win the BnF 15,16 played 14 games in 17 and he won because they were rubbish.
6 games in 2015 and 14 games in 2016.

Again, he was considered one of the best 3 players in the competition going into each of those seasons, and again in 2017.
 

Cdog71

Premiership Player
Sep 21, 2017
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6 games in 2015 and 14 games in 2016.

Again, he was considered one of the best 3 players in the competition going into each of those seasons, and again in 2017.
Your right he was great prior to 2014 and maybe on track for another Brownlow but I don’t think he was top 5 at the end of each of those seasons, the way he played and that’s just an opinion.

Expected to play but he didn’t want to.
Had to use the I’ll never play again if you don’t break the contract after asking the previous year.
So obviously a sh.t relationship in the end with the club and no doubt affected the playing group the last couple of years him not wanting to play.

Made a great recovery and played full seasons after that.

I know that’s not a very flattering way of saying it but it happened.
Could’ve hit 400 games easy.
I doubt Gold Coast fans would worship at the shrine like you do after the way he brushed the club.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
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Your right he was great prior to 2014 and maybe on track for another Brownlow but I don’t think he was top 5 at the end of each of those seasons, the way he played and that’s just an opinion.
I'm not saying what he delivered was the top 5 players in the competition at the end of the season, but if you sat down at the start of 2015, 2016 and likely 2017 and you could pick anyone from the comp, you'd go GAJ as your first picked at the start of 2015, probably top 3 at the start of 2016 (with Fyfe and Buddy), and Top 5 at the start of 2017 (with Fyfe, Buddy and Dangerfield). He then starts to drop off.

Do the same exercise with Dusty and he may have been just inside your Top 10 before or at the start of 2017, he becomes the game's number 1 player that year, and would be one of the first picked each year through to and including 2021. Based on 2021 form he drops out of the top 5 and would he be in anyone's first 20 players picked going into the 2023 season based on projected output?

For 2023 I'm picking the following players ahead of him:
Neale
McGluggage
Dunkley
Cripps
Curnow
McKay
Weitering
(not Walsh due to injury)
Moore
De Goey
Crisp
J. Cameron
Oliver
Petracca
Miller
Bontempelli
Naughton
T. Greene
A. Brayshaw
C. Serong
J. Steele
C. Rozee
C. Mills
C. Warner
B. Smith
S. Bolton
T. Lynch
M. Gawn
T. Stewart

I notice he's paying $81 for the Brownlow, and reckon that's unders.
 

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Noidnadroj

Premiership Player
Dec 8, 2020
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6 games in 2015 and 14 games in 2016.

Again, he was considered one of the best 3 players in the competition going into each of those seasons, and again in 2017.

I can’t agree going into 2017 : Danger just came off a thumping Brownlow win. Buddy.
Fyfe. Pendlebury. Selwood. Rance. Bontempelli. Gray. Gawn. Rioli. Betts.

No doubt still a gun, but not sure many saw him in the top handful of players in the competition. FWIW ‘Slobbo’ had Gazza at no.6 in his top-50 prior to start of 2017.


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Noidnadroj

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Which 9 finals was he BOG in?

I'll give 7, which is about the same number he's been a non-factor in.

2017: QF. PF. GF
2018: QF
2019: QF. GF
2020: SF. PF. GF

Even if you were to debate a couple where you argue he was second best to bring him down to your 7 x BOG’s, he was outstanding in 9 x finals.

In his other 7 x finals his averages were:

Possessions: 21
Inside-50’s: 5.71
Goals + goal assists: 1.29
Clearances: 1.86

DeGoey’s 2022 season averages:

Poss: 20.8
I50’s: 4.4
G+GA: 1.3
Clearances: 5.1

So even Martin’s worst 7 x finals don’t get shaded that badly by DeGoey’s career best season.

I was suspicious that there’s a ‘glow’ about yesteryear where bad games are forgotten, so I checked on the worst 7 x finals from players of days gone by:

Averages of worst 7 finals :

GAS / Carey / Hird:

Possessions: 10 / 10.57 / 15.14
Marks: 2.86 / 3.14 / 3.0
Goals: 1.57 / 0.57 / 0 (yes, Hird didn’t kick a goal and Carey kicked just 4)

So there’s 3 undisputed superstars of our game, with ‘look away now kids’ stats in their worst 7 x finals.

I then reviewed Buckley, who has only played 10 x finals so I took his worst 5 x finals. And Judd as he’s often touted as a big game player. And Goodes because for most Martin is in behind him in ratings:

So here are stats averages for Judd’s and Goodes worst 7 finals and Buckley’s worst 5 (not all stats easily available such as GA’s)

Judd / Buckley / Goodes

Possessions : 17.43 / 21.2 / 12.43
Goals: 0.43 / 0 / 0.29
Marks : 2.86 (Goodes only)

So in his worst 7 finals Judd averaged 17.43 touches and kicked 3 goals. Goodes averaged 12.43 touches, 2.86 marks and kicked 2
Goals. Buckley in his worst 5 averaged 21.2 and didn’t kick a goal. Martin averaged 21 and kicked 2 goals.

So Martin’s worst 7 finals compare very favourably with the worst 7 finals of some of the games greatest players. I’ll let you decide if others delivered 9 x BOG’s in the rest.

As I’ve said many many times…. our memories of the greats slowly sift out the crap games and their weaknesses where we only remember them with a ‘glow’,. Fortunately we have facts to get a better picture of the reality.


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HAPPY CHEFFY

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lol @ richmond battlers comparing stat averages of todays style of game to that of last century and acting all surprised that Dustie has more touches. 🤦🏻‍♂️

You can’t make this s**t up.

😂
 

Cdog71

Premiership Player
Sep 21, 2017
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I'm not saying what he delivered was the top 5 players in the competition at the end of the season, but if you sat down at the start of 2015, 2016 and likely 2017 and you could pick anyone from the comp, you'd go GAJ as your first picked at the start of 2015, probably top 3 at the start of 2016 (with Fyfe and Buddy), and Top 5 at the start of 2017 (with Fyfe, Buddy and Dangerfield). He then starts to drop off.

Do the same exercise with Dusty and he may have been just inside your Top 10 before or at the start of 2017, he becomes the game's number 1 player that year, and would be one of the first picked each year through to and including 2021. Based on 2021 form he drops out of the top 5 and would he be in anyone's first 20 players picked going into the 2023 season based on projected output?

For 2023 I'm picking the following players ahead of him:
Neale
McGluggage
Dunkley
Cripps
Curnow
McKay
Weitering
(not Walsh due to injury)
Moore
De Goey
Crisp
J. Cameron
Oliver
Petracca
Miller
Bontempelli
Naughton
T. Greene
A. Brayshaw
C. Serong
J. Steele
C. Rozee
C. Mills
C. Warner
B. Smith
S. Bolton
T. Lynch
M. Gawn
T. Stewart

I notice he's paying $81 for the Brownlow, and reckon that's unders.
Well I guess we’ll see.
De Goey over Crisp…that’s funny
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
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lol @ richmond battlers comparing stat averages of todays style of game to that of last century and acting all surprised that Dustie has more touches. 🤦🏻‍♂️

You can’t make this s**t up.

😂
Not to mention the different positions and roles they played...

I'm looking forward to the comparison with Barassi's worst 7 finals...
 

Cdog71

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Sep 21, 2017
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Not to mention the different positions and roles they played...

I'm looking forward to the comparison with Barassi's worst 7 finals...
Regardless,he is the most decorated player in GF’s and he is undisputed as a big game performer who’s direct impact resulted three premierships.

That’s why there’s a thread speculating if he were to win another would he be thought of as the greatest player of all time.
Certainly ought to have a statue erected at the G if it comes about ,IMO.

Who deserves one from the Colliwobbles?
 

owen87

Brownlow Medallist
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Had to use the I’ll never play again if you don’t break the contract after asking the previous year.

Pretty sure he wanted to go home for family reasons. Gold Coast said no. Then his sister died. They said yes.

 

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Meteoric Rise

Norm Smith Medallist
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Yet if you were doing a list of your top 5 players in the comp going into 2015, 2016 and likely 2017, he would be included. Comfortably.

If seasons where people hope you return to your best before the season count then Martin has more than the 4 seasons at the top. What a stupid(but creative so points) way to judge a player. Ablett’s career is over. We can see his output. He averages less Brownlow votes than Dusty. had way less impact in finals in his prime, was a failed captain. So if leadership is truly as important to you as you say, you are taking points off Ablett for straight out failed leadership.

Get serious though, how a player is rated going into a season has absolutely no place in rating how good a player they are post career. Ablett over his career leads Martin in accumulation of most statistics, but marginally. It shows how good Ablett was, because we have established clearly on this thread how good Martin has been across his career. But you move to the biggest games, finals, and the contest between the two is put to bed, and not marginally. Martin averages more disposals by around 8%, more goals by 125%, more goal assists by by 100%, more contested possessions by 25%. These are all the key statistical indicators of impact. Knowing the impact of the two players in advance and when it has been delivered, no club would draft Ablett over Martin. No club would draft any player we can fairly compare to Martin over Martin. They would if finals didn’t exist, but they do exist, they are what clubs prize most and Dusty’s performances in finals added to his overall excellent career would make him a certain pick 1 over any modern player to whom he can be fairly compared by us. To show just how certain this is, Ablett has a very decent - though not dominant - finals record. And it is not even close to matching Dusty’s finals record, as much as you have attempted to twist things to make it do so.
 

Meteoric Rise

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Pretty sure he wanted to go home for family reasons. Gold Coast said no. Then his sister died. They said yes.


Whatever his reasons for wanting to go home, and we are in no position to judge what factors formed his true motivation, if the Suns had their time again they surely wouldn’t want him as Captain.
 

owen87

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 23, 2016
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Whatever his reasons for wanting to go home, and we are in no position to judge what factors formed his true motivation, if the Suns had their time again they surely wouldn’t want him as Captain.

Gold Coast made a lot of errors when they first started, partly caused by the AFL, partly not.

Ablett was an amazing player for them, but time and again we've seen that making someone Captain just because they're your best player isn't a great plan.
 

Trav 20

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But you move to the biggest games, finals, and the contest between the two is put to bed, and not marginally. Martin averages more disposals by around 8%, more goals by 125%, more goal assists by by 100%, more contested possessions by 25%.
Do those stats include Ablett's first 5 finals in 2004 and 2005 ?

Ablett averaged only 15 disposals in his first 100 games between the years 2002 and 2006.

In his first 5 finals, which were included in this period where he was a modest small forward, his total disposals were 77, which pretty much mirrored his 15 disposal average from those first 5 years.

I'm more interested in the disposal comparison sans those first 5 finals, because they skew the data. If you have them, of course ...
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
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If seasons where people hope you return to your best before the season count then Martin has more than the 4 seasons at the top. What a stupid(but creative so points) way to judge a player. Ablett’s career is over. We can see his output. He averages less Brownlow votes than Dusty. had way less impact in finals in his prime, was a failed captain. So if leadership is truly as important to you as you say, you are taking points off Ablett for straight out failed leadership.

Get serious though, how a player is rated going into a season has absolutely no place in rating how good a player they are post career. Ablett over his career leads Martin in accumulation of most statistics, but marginally. It shows how good Ablett was, because we have established clearly on this thread how good Martin has been across his career. But you move to the biggest games, finals, and the contest between the two is put to bed, and not marginally. Martin averages more disposals by around 8%, more goals by 125%, more goal assists by by 100%, more contested possessions by 25%. These are all the key statistical indicators of impact. Knowing the impact of the two players in advance and when it has been delivered, no club would draft Ablett over Martin. No club would draft any player we can fairly compare to Martin over Martin. They would if finals didn’t exist, but they do exist, they are what clubs prize most and Dusty’s performances in finals added to his overall excellent career would make him a certain pick 1 over any modern player to whom he can be fairly compared by us. To show just how certain this is, Ablett has a very decent - though not dominant - finals record. And it is not even close to matching Dusty’s finals record, as much as you have attempted to twist things to make it do so.
For the majority of you who won't waste their time reading this, Meteoric Rise has just stated no club would draft GAJ over Martin with the benefit of hindsight.

He has officially jumped the shark.

By the way, still waiting for your relative assessments of GAJ's 2007 to 2010 finals series' compared to Martin between 2017 to 2020.

We need more than 'it is not even close to match Martin's finals record'.
 

Aristotle Pickett

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I'm not saying what he delivered was the top 5 players in the competition at the end of the season, but if you sat down at the start of 2015, 2016 and likely 2017 and you could pick anyone from the comp, you'd go GAJ as your first picked at the start of 2015, probably top 3 at the start of 2016 (with Fyfe and Buddy), and Top 5 at the start of 2017 (with Fyfe, Buddy and Dangerfield). He then starts to drop off.

Do the same exercise with Dusty and he may have been just inside your Top 10 before or at the start of 2017, he becomes the game's number 1 player that year, and would be one of the first picked each year through to and including 2021. Based on 2021 form he drops out of the top 5 and would he be in anyone's first 20 players picked going into the 2023 season based on projected output?

For 2023 I'm picking the following players ahead of him:
Neale
McGluggage
Dunkley
Cripps
Curnow
McKay
Weitering
(not Walsh due to injury)
Moore
De Goey
Crisp
J. Cameron
Oliver
Petracca
Miller
Bontempelli
Naughton
T. Greene
A. Brayshaw
C. Serong
J. Steele
C. Rozee
C. Mills
C. Warner
B. Smith
S. Bolton
T. Lynch
M. Gawn
T. Stewart

I notice he's paying $81 for the Brownlow, and reckon that's unders.
What a joke u r sometimes. This post is nothing but a pissweak troll. He's $81 for the brownlow because he'll be playing forward mid.
Time to have a spell from this thread if you're going to post crap.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
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Do those stats include Ablett's first 5 finals in 2004 and 2005 ?

Ablett averaged only 15 disposals in his first 100 games between the years 2002 and 2006.

In his first 5 finals, which were included in this period where he was a modest small forward, his total disposals were 77, which pretty much mirrored his 15 disposal average from those first 5 years.

I'm more interested in the disposal comparison sans those first 5 finals, because they skew the data. If you have them, of course ...
Yep, they also include Ablett's later finals series' as a Cat, as a 34/35/36 year old...
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
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What a joke u r sometimes. This post is nothing but a pissweak troll. He's $81 for the brownlow because he'll be playing forward mid.
Time to have a spell from this thread if you're going to post crap.
He's $81 for the Brownlow because he's (more than likely) past it.

What are your expectations for his output in 2023?

I've gone on record that 15 games and 10 Brownlow votes (if we are using a measure like that, which is always fraught with danger) is a pass mark.
 

Meteoric Rise

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 4, 2008
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Do those stats include Ablett's first 5 finals in 2004 and 2005 ?

Ablett averaged only 15 disposals in his first 100 games between the years 2002 and 2006.

In his first 5 finals, which were included in this period where he was a modest small forward, his total disposals were 77, which pretty much mirrored his 15 disposal average from those first 5 years.

I'm more interested in the disposal comparison sans those first 5 finals, because they skew the data. If you have them, of course ...

Fair question but if you exclude finals in Ablett’s 3rd and 4th years because he was pre-prime, and even his later finals because he was post-prime, we probably need to exclude Dusty’s 2013 & 2015 final on the same basis and his 2018 PF when clearly hampered by injury and his 2022 final when first up off 9 weeks missing injured, and a terribly interrupted season.

What we are left with is the comparison we have done before, their prime age finals when both were fit and properly prepared. And Ablett tended to run around at half back getting uncontested possessions in his, whilst Martin as we know smashed 3 finals series to pieces with massive midfield and scoreboard impact.
 

Meteoric Rise

Norm Smith Medallist
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He's $81 for the Brownlow because he's (more than likely) past it.

What are your expectations for his output in 2023?

I've gone on record that 15 games and 10 Brownlow votes (if we are using a measure like that, which is always fraught with danger) is a pass mark.

All thing being equal, Martin will have a strong season. Much stronger than you would have it. He is training well, and as we know he is on many measures in a class of his own as a modern player. If his body stands up(and from his whole career he only has his mystery 9 week hamstring issues from 2022 to suggest otherwise) he will be a dominant force. I actually went live to a game against the Hawks last year where he played, and it was pretty clear watching that he wasn’t past it. 31 turning 32 in the season is not old for a top class player if he is in good physical condition(and avoids injuries.)
 

Meteoric Rise

Norm Smith Medallist
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For the majority of you who won't waste their time reading this, Meteoric Rise has just stated no club would draft GAJ over Martin with the benefit of hindsight.

He has officially jumped the shark.

By the way, still waiting for your relative assessments of GAJ's 2007 to 2010 finals series' compared to Martin between 2017 to 2020.

We need more than 'it is not even close to match Martin's finals record'.

So far I have watched 1/4 of Ablett’s 2008 GF v Hawks and taken some notes. This is my busiest time of the year, but I will watch either all Ablett’s prime aged finals eventually or a good selection of them as my time opens up a bit more as it is a big undertaking. Currently working 3 jobs to keep the country running. 😉