Analysis If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest player of all time?

[Fadge]

And Ablett tended to run around at half back getting uncontested possessions in his, whilst Martin as we know smashed 3 finals series to pieces with massive midfield and scoreboard impact.

Yeah, it was probably unreasonably optimistic of me to expect any greater level of analysis than this from you..

 

[Fadge]

So far I have watched 1/4 of Ablett’s 2008 GF v Hawks and taken some notes. This is my busiest time of the year, but I will watch either all Ablett’s prime aged finals eventually or a good selection of them as my time opens up a bit more as it is a big undertaking. Currently working 3 jobs to keep the country running.

No doubt your final analysis will be worth the wait.

Maybe we can have some progressive updates, though I understand why it has taken you so long just to watch the first quarter - there is so much to assess...

 

[Fadge]

All thing being equal, Martin will have a strong season. Much stronger than you would have it. He is training well, and as we know he is on many measures in a class of his own as a modern player. If his body stands up(and from his whole career he only has his mystery 9 week hamstring issues from 2022 to suggest otherwise) he will be a dominant force. I actually went live to a game against the Hawks last year where he played, and it was pretty clear watching that he wasn’t past it. 31 turning 32 in the season is not old for a top class player if he is in good physical condition(and avoids injuries.)

So what's a pass mark?

 

[Trav 20]

Fair question but if you exclude finals in Ablett’s 3rd and 4th years because he was pre-prime, and even his later finals because he was post-prime, we probably need to exclude Dusty’s 2013 & 2015 final on the same basis and his 2018 PF when clearly hampered by injury and his 2022 final when first up off 9 weeks missing injured, and a terribly interrupted season.

What we are left with is the comparison we have done before, their prime age finals when both were fit and properly prepared. And Ablett tended to run around at half back getting uncontested possessions in his, whilst Martin as we know smashed 3 finals series to pieces with massive midfield and scoreboard impact.

I'm happy to include Ablett's end years, because it is what it is. Some players slow down. Just like I'll include Martin's last years in the future where he may or may not slow down.

But Ablett very much had two distinct careers, ie his first 100 games where he was a small forward and then from 2007 on.

Martin never had that disparity. Granted in year's 4 (2013) and 6 (2015) he may not have been in his absolute prime, but he was still a gun. He was still kicking over 20 goals and averaging over 20 disposals in each of those years. How many players do that ? So they're included. Just like I'll include Petracca's modest 2018 finals series before he improved when discussing his overall finals record.

So, if you eliminate Ablett's first 5 finals how do things look head to head ?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So what's a pass mark?

I don’t deal in pass marks. We don’t ev en know the precise role he will be given yet, and to be honest I doubt Richmond would even have settled properly on that. All manner of things can go right or wrong for any team or player. We can just assess based on known facts after the event. He is a top class player. If he doesn’t meet with catastrophe he will be a dominant force, a huge weapon for Richmond and a massive headache for opposition teams to cover.

 

[Fadge]

I don’t deal in pass marks. We don’t ev en know the precise role he will be given yet, and to be honest I doubt Richmond would even have settled properly on that. All manner of things can go right or wrong for any team or player. We can just assess based on known facts after the event. He is a top class player. If he doesn’t meet with catastrophe he will be a dominant force, a huge weapon for Richmond and a massive headache for opposition teams to cover.

Hmm. Very non-committal.

You would hope that a player who is being talked up as the GOAT by his team's supporters has enough left in the tank as a 31/32 year old to have a 10 or so vote Brownlow year, on the podium in his club's best and fairest, and on the verge of All-Australian selection.

I guess time will tell.

 

[blaisee]

For the majority of you who won't waste their time reading this, Meteoric Rise has just stated no club would draft GAJ over Martin with the benefit of hindsight.

He has officially jumped the shark.

By the way, still waiting for your relative assessments of GAJ's 2007 to 2010 finals series' compared to Martin between 2017 to 2020.

We need more than 'it is not even close to match Martin's finals record'.

On the balance of their careers no club would draft Gaj over Martin.

One was a mercenary that shafted his club, his club actually got better after he left, the other was a loyal servant that knocked back millions to stay loyal to the club that drafted him. The fact that GAJ still left Geelong, The club that made his families name, perhaps one of the most famous in history, the club that his father played at, for more money, TBH is a blight on his character. It confirms his as a mercenary. On the flip side, has anyone ever knocked back as much money as Dusty to stay loyal to his mates?

One was a selfish stat peddling footballer, the other is perhaps the most unselfish champion to ever play

Knowing what we know, you would be crazy to draft GAJ over Martin

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'm happy to include Ablett's end years, because it is what it is. Some players slow down. Just like I'll include Martin's last years in the future where he may or may not slow down.

But Ablett very much had two distinct careers, ie his first 100 games where he was a pretty ineffectual small forward and then from 2007 on.

Martin never had that disparity. Granted in year's 4 (2013) and 6 (2015) he may not have been in his absolute prime, but he was still a gun. He was still kicking over 20 goals and averaging over 20 disposals in each of those years. How many players do that ? So they're included. Just like I'll include Petracca's modest 2018 finals series before he improved when discussing his overall finals record.

So, if you eliminate Ablett's first 5 finals how do things look head to head ?

That jst isn’t a sound way to compare Trav. Have a look at Ablett’s first 5 years, statistically he ranged between decent and gun small forward/high half forward. If Martin was better than Ablett in the early part of his career then to me it is just another thing to suggest Martin has been a better player overall.

I am rushed today, but you can present any comparison you think is fair by referring to the players’ respective careers at afltables.com

AFL Tables - Gary Ablett - Stats - Statistics

AFL Tables - Dustin Martin - Stats - Statistics

To be honest I think the 2007-10 Ablett 6th to 9th year v the Dusty 2017-20, 7th to 10th year comparison probably gives the best comparison as it is both players in their prime, 98 Brownlow votes Ablett v 97 Brownlow votes Dusty(adjusted for 2020 shortened season.) The finals in those seasons should be indicative.

 

[Fadge]

That jst isn’t a sound way to compare Trav. Have a look at Ablett’s first 5 years, statistically he ranged between decent and gun small forward/high half forward. If Martin was better than Ablett in the early part of his career then to me it is just another thing to suggest Martin has been a better player overall.

I am rushed today, but you can present any comparison you think is fair by referring to the players’ respective careers at afltables.com

AFL Tables - Gary Ablett - Stats - Statistics

AFL Tables - Dustin Martin - Stats - Statistics

To be honest I think the 2007-10 Ablett 6th to 9th year v the Dusty 2017-20, 7th to 10th year comparison probably gives the best comparison as it is both players in their prime, 98 Brownlow votes Ablett v 97 Brownlow votes Dusty(adjusted for 2020 shortened season.) The finals in those seasons should be indicative.

So you're going to disregard the other 5 to 7 years that Ablett was regarded as the best player in the competition, because Martin has nowhere near the equivalent longevity?

Convenient.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Hmm. Very non-committal.

You would hope that a player who is being talked up as the GOAT by his team's supporters has enough left in the tank as a 31/32 year old to have a 10 or so vote Brownlow year, on the podium in his club's best and fairest, and on the verge of All-Australian selection.

I guess time will tell.

If he plays a full season I will be pretty surprised if he isn’t in strong AA contention. Brownlow, who knows, his role could preclude a really strong showing but he is a known vote getter, so will get votes. But ultimately it will come down to when the best play the best and whether Richmond and Dusty are there and how they play. His record says he will take a lot of stopping if he gets a good run at it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So you're going to disregard the other 5 to 7 years that Ablett was regarded as the best player in the competition, because Martin has nowhere near the equivalent longevity?

Convenient.

Errr…we are talking about their finals records. Ablett didn’t play finals in the years you are splooging over. I cannot rewrite history to make him play finals in those seasons. In any event, he gets a very fair comparison of 12 finals in his prime v 12 finals in Dusty’s prime. Only a very biased person would complain over that comparison.

Ablett wasn’t considered the best player in the competition in 5-7 seasons post 2010 in any event. You can probably at best identify a 7 season phase 2007-2013 where Ablett’s body of work is the best over that whole phase rather than the best at all times during the phase. But guess what? Go from 2014-2020 and try to come up with a player who had a better body of work than Dusty in that period….of 7 years.

Need to start calling you Fudge again.

 

[Jack The Godfather]

Talk about delusional.

 

[Fadge]

Errr…we are talking about their finals records. Ablett didn’t play finals in the years you are splooging over. I cannot rewrite history to make him play finals in those seasons. In any event, he gets a very fair comparison of 12 finals in his prime v 12 finals in Dusty’s prime. Only a very biased person would complain over that comparison.

Ablett wasn’t considered the best player in the competition in 5-7 seasons post 2010 in any event. You can probably at best identify a 7 season phase 2007-2013 where Ablett’s body of work is the best over that whole phase rather than the best at all times during the phase. But guess what? Go from 2014-2020 and try to come up with a player who had a better body of work than Dusty in that period….of 7 years.

Need to start calling you Fudge again.

Ablett not the best in 2014 despite his season finishing at round 15 but leading the Brownlow through to round 21, and trying to include that in a 7 year period where Dusty was the best.

 

[Fadge]

His record says he will take a lot of stopping if he gets a good run at it.

You could say the same about John Coleman but he hasn't played for 70 years and passed away 50 years ago.

Martin's recent record indicates he's unlikely to get a good run at it.

But we'll see.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Yep, they also include Ablett's later finals series' as a Cat, as a 34/35/36 year old...

Ok …. so you criticise anyone who wants to excuse Martin’s injured 2018 PF or 2022 EF after a 10-week layoff, but now want to take away Ablett’s first 5-years of finals and his last 4-years of finals …ok, removing 9-years of data that may skew his numbers sounds reasonable…..


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[Trav 20]

That jst isn’t a sound way to compare Trav. Have a look at Ablett’s first 5 years, statistically he ranged between decent and gun small forward/high half forward. If Martin was better than Ablett in the early part of his career then to me it is just another thing to suggest Martin has been a better player overall.

I am rushed today, but you can present any comparison you think is fair by referring to the players’ respective careers at afltables.com

AFL Tables - Gary Ablett - Stats - Statistics

AFL Tables - Dustin Martin - Stats - Statistics

To be honest I think the 2007-10 Ablett 6th to 9th year v the Dusty 2017-20, 7th to 10th year comparison probably gives the best comparison as it is both players in their prime, 98 Brownlow votes Ablett v 97 Brownlow votes Dusty(adjusted for 2020 shortened season.) The finals in those seasons should be indicative.

Plenty of players were better than Ablett in his first 100 games. He was a B grader. He was a 35 goal small forward.

It's no feather in Martin's cap, or any quality midfielder, to say they had Ablett covered prior to 2007.

Considering you've already done the work, and I haven't, all you have to do is deduct 77 disposals from his total finals tally and take off 5 finals games to adjust the numbers.

I'll do it if you pass on the tallies you've already compiled.

 

[Fadge]

Ok …. so you criticise anyone who wants to excuse Martin’s injured 2018 PF or 2022 EF after a 10-week layoff, but now want to take away Ablett’s first 5-years of finals and his last 4-years of finals …ok, removing 9-years of data that may skew his numbers sounds reasonable…..

I don't want to take away any data.

I'm just commenting that when you have the following data set it's not exactly a like for like comparison:

Years into career of finals games:
Player 1 - Gary Ablett Junior - 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 17, 18, 19 (5 x finals in years 3 and 4, 8 x finals in years 17,18,19)
Player 2 - Dustin Martin - 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13 (2 x finals total in years 4 and 6)

Or do you disagree?

 

[Noidnadroj]

Not to mention the different positions and roles they played...

I'm looking forward to the comparison with Barassi's worst 7 finals...

Your silence on my analysis of the ‘worst’ 7 finals of a cavalcade of superstars you rate all above Martin is deafening.

His worst 7 finals are comparatively better than theirs (Hird didn’t kick a goal and averaged 15 touches…. Goodes averaged 12 touches ….oh my!!) , and his best 9 x finals are without question streets ahead of theirs.

Do you accept your memories of these stars may be a little sketchy from days gone by?

Also, GAJ’s worst 7 x finals? Averaged 13.14 touches and didn’t kick a goal. Or let’s go to his worst 11 x finals? Averaged 17.27 and kicked 2 x goals total.

Pendles worst 7 x finals? Averaged 14.71 touches and didn’t kick a goal. He’s played a lot of finals, so Pendles worst 12 x finals? Averaged 18.17 touches and didn’t kick a goal.

Let’s be fair and take out his 5 x absolutely worst finals, and look at the ‘next worst 7’:

Averaged 21.71 and didn’t kick a goal. So that’s after we’ve taken out his 5 x complete disasters as a young player or if he got injured or was sick etc…..

With Martin’s complete disaster finals included … youngster, injured, not match fit etc…. he averages just under 21 touches and kicked 2 x goals.

Amazing what a little digging unearths, isn’t it Fadge?

Penny for your thoughts ?


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[JackOutback]

On the balance of their careers no club would draft Gaj over Martin.

Troll thread confirmed.

 

[Trav 20]

Pendles worst 7 x finals? Averaged 14.71 touches and didn’t kick a goal. He’s played a lot of finals, so Pendles worst 12 x finals? Averaged 18.17 touches and didn’t kick a goal.

Old ''zero flag Pendles'', eh ?

 

[Fadge]

Your silence on my analysis of the ‘worst’ 7 finals of a cavalcade of superstars you rate all above Martin is deafening.

How many times and how many different people do you need to tell you that comparing players' statistics from different eras, particularly when they played in different positions across those eras, is fundamentally flawed, before you come to the conclusion it is fundamentally flawed?

Refer to my earlier post highlighting the number of finals games GAJ and Martin played in the respective years of their careers as an example.

I mean, if you want to take the worst 7 finals games of GAJ's career, which I expect will be from the 13 games he played in years 3, 4, 17, 18 and 19 of his career, and compare them to Martin's worst 7 finals, of which only three were played outside of his peak 2017 to 2020 period, then be my guest.

But don't expect anyone who has an iota of analytical skills to take any notice of your comments.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Ablett not the best in 2014 despite his season finishing at round 15 but leading the Brownlow through to round 21, and trying to include that in a 7 year period where Dusty was the best.

So you can say 2007-2014 in that 8 year period isolated, Ablett is the best player in the AFL over the whole period rather than in each individual year, not in the conversation any other time.

It is not saying much that elevates him above Martin because you could as easily say Martin 2013-2020 is the best performed player in that 8 year period without question, though not the best player in every individual season. Where Ablett has done more of something for longer Martin has done more of something else for longer. But the way they are easily separated is finals output. Ablett despite your fantastic claims to the contrary is not considered to be anywhere near Martin on that score. Which is one of the tests you used to try to differentiate Ablett from Martin that he was “considered” the best player in the AFL leading into xyz amount of seasons. I will later watch Ablett’s finals in his prime and give an honest appraisal v Martin’s prime finals with which I am more familiar. But statistically and for impact and acclaim, Martin is starting from a position of being way ahead on that score. Bar your ratings, which says it all really.

 

[Fadge]

So you can say 2007-2014 in that 8 year period isolated, Ablett is the best player in the AFL over the whole period rather than in each individual year, not in the conversation any other time.

It is not saying much that elevates him above Martin because you could as easily say Martin 2013-2020 is the best performed player in that 8 year period without question, though not the best player in every individual season. Where Ablett has done more of something for longer Martin has done more of something else for longer. But the way they are easily separated is finals output. Ablett despite your fantastic claims to the contrary is not considered to be anywhere near Martin on that score. Which is one of the tests you used to try to differentiate Ablett from Martin that he was “considered” the best player in the AFL leading into xyz amount of seasons. I will later watch Ablett’s finals in his prime and give an honest appraisal v Martin’s prime finals with which I am more familiar. But statistically and for impact and acclaim, Martin is starting from a position of being way ahead on that score. Bar your ratings, which says it all really.

So Martin is starting from a position of being way ahead of GAJ in finals, because you're yet to actually watch GAJ's finals...

I won't even waste my time commenting on your 8 year windows for GAJ and Martin.

Oh my.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I don't want to take away any data.

I'm just commenting that when you have the following data set it's not exactly a like for like comparison:

Years into career of finals games:
Player 1 - Gary Ablett Junior - 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 17, 18, 19 (5 x finals in years 3 and 4, 8 x finals in years 17,18,19)
Player 2 - Dustin Martin - 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13 (2 x finals total in years 4 and 6)

Or do you disagree?

Martin played in a final in his 5th year.

 

[JackOutback]

It is not saying much that elevates him above Martin because you could as easily say Martin 2013-2020 is the best performed player in that 8 year period without question, though not the best player in every individual season.

No you couldn't.