Roast IF it isn't biased or ncompetent..... THEN it must be inciteful media coverage part II

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One thing that often isn't factored into the 'home ground advantage' discussion is the level of success that the team is having. Noone ever bleats about GC Suns having a home ground advantage. Noone complained about WCE home ground advantage when we were crap. And there's only been a few seasons where the Cockburners have been considered to have a home ground advantage even though at the very same time Subi was giving (the more successful) WCE a home ground advantage.

(BTW if Eagles are slated for having a home ground advantage why is it that playing interstate never seems to be an 'away ground disadvantage'?)

Of course another benefit of the home game is the home crowd. 'Noise of affirmation' etc. So a more accurate term might be 'home game advantage' which is a combination of familiar ground plus overwhelmingly partisan crowd.

However, that overlooks what I think is the most significant element - adding to the favourable ground-crowd is the lack of travel. Not travelling means own bed, family, friends, routine, good rehab and no long hours with planes and airports. (See Kade Simpson and Pavlich both played around 340-350 games; the former travelled about 123K kms, the latter a massive 861K kms.)

So while the grounds are different (although nowhere near as much as in past decades) I'm sure an MCG team would rather play a non-Vic side at a 'neutral' Docklands rather than say at a 'neutral' Darwin or Alice Springs.

And while some will reply with 'that's just the way it is' my response is that with better scheduling some of this can be overcome. For example, no WA side plays in Tas as it makes an already long flight an all day affair. Teams flying interstate stay six days and play two opponents which gives extended time at home. Etc etc.
 
It is true that Richmond derive little home ground advantage from a game against Collingwood. But it is yet another game at the G, which helps come GF day against a non-MCG tenant.

However, travel is absolutely the angle you should use when debating the inherent inequalities in the normal fixture. People will argue that there is nothing you can do about where West Coast and Freo are based.

But you can drop the automatic twice per year matchups of the ‘big clubs’, regardless of where they finish on the ladder. Theoretically, you should only play the same team twice if you finish in the same third of the ladder. Yes, that means we should accept only playing Freo once as well in the same circumstances.

This should help free up the fixture to ensure vic clubs are travelling regularly.

But, the problem is, we play those fixtures twice because of money. You can call it vic bias if you like, but it’s really bias to cash.

I’d love for there to be a 17 game season, but we’ve crossed the Rubicon and are addicted to cash now. However, a shorter season should allow for state of origin, if the TV fat cats want their money.

I was happy to see that Nesbitt, in his rebuttal of Caro and Ross Lyons’ argument against us receiving a home final mentioned that we are continuing to seek a more credible fixture.

One final per week at the MCG is dealt with. The GF at the MCG is a lost cause (although the WA government should be seeking to make a deal to be the official back up if we get any more unforeseen events like this year). The amount of games which Richmond play at the MCG is a bit of a red herring.

But...some kind of travel parity is the long term change we should be seeking in the game.
 
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ukurrie said:
It is true that Richmond derive little home ground advantage from a game against Collingwood. But it is yet another game at the G, which helps come GF day against a non-MCG tenant.

However, travel is absolutely the angle you should use when debating the inherent inequalities in the normal fixture. People will argue that there is nothing you can do about where West Coast and Freo are based.

But you can drop the automatic twice per year matchups of the ‘big clubs’, regardless of where they finish on the ladder. Theoretically, you should only play the same team twice if you finish in the same third of the ladder. Yes, that means we should accept only playing Freo once as well in the same circumstances.

This should help free up the fixture to ensure vic clubs are travelling regularly.

But, that’s the problem. We play those fixtures twice because of money. You can call it vic bias if you like, but it’s really bias to cash.

I’d love for there to be a 17 game season, but we’ve crossed the Rubicon and are addicted to cash now. A shorter season should allow for state of origin, if the TV fat cats want their money.

I was happy to see that Nesbitt, in his rebuttal of Caro and Ross Lyons’ argument against us receiving a home final mentioned that we are continuing to seek a more credible fixture.

One final per week at the MCG is dealt with. The GF at the MCG is a lost cause (although the WA government should be seeking to make a deal to be the official back up if we get any more unforeseen events like this year).

The amount of games which Richmond play at the MCG is a bit of a red herring. Some kind of travel parity is the long term change we should be seeking in the game.
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Yep, agree with this. An even fixture with each team meeting twice over two years is a great solution. Yes, this shortens it to a 17 game season but I think this time could be used to develop the women’s league.

At the moment it is shunted off to the warmest months of the year, but if it was moved up a month on the calendar, it would allow for mor footy friendly conditions, and give the AFLW room to breathe and build more engagement.

It’s a win-win to me as it invests in the growth of the game, in this instance AFLW, while also providing an even, non-compromised fixture.
 
FreeTK said:
5) Dylan's post was trash. It was reverse engineering a post for likes and then finding the data to support it.
Click to expand...

FreeTK said:
Dylan is a very smart guy, and he knows as well as anyone that if you are using data to support an argument, you also present the data that doesn't support what you are saying, and present a balanced argument. He didn't, and I assume that he didn't on purpose, because he was just dishing out some red meat to the folks on here that are looking for extra ammunition to support their petty grievances.
Click to expand...


I'm not sure what your issue is with this, but the posts in question are simply a count of the number of matches this season where one team has two days or more additional break over the other. Nothing within them is either reverse engineered or fabricated.



Post 1: 2+ Additional Days Break
Dylan82 said:
5 day break vs 9 day break. Geelong were always going to be flat.

Richmond have a days break differential of +14 over their opponents this year, the most in the competition.

The six matches alone from Round 12 to the end of Round 18 provides them with a cumulative additional 12 days of rest over their rivals.

And yet people still marvel at how the Tigers manage to maintain such a high-pressure method - here's a clue, it's in the fixture.


You have to go back to Round 5 last year for the last time that Richmond had a two or more day break deficit in comparison to their opponent (and even then they still had 7 days break in total).

Fremantle alone have had that happen to them six times this season.


If you take a look of the number of matches where a day break differential of 2 or more occurs, the disparity with Richmond is clearly evident.

View attachment 959240

Indeed, compare the outcome tally on the above right to the competition ladder and it becomes apparent how much of an outsized impact this effect is having upon the season.

Anyone who thinks the fixture has been fair this season are absolutely kidding themselves.
Click to expand...


Post 2: Outcomes of Matches with 2+ Additional Days Break
Dylan82 said:
Further to this, I had a look through the outcomes of these matches; the impact is even greater than I had anticipated.

If you remove situations where the team with additional days break advantage has travelled interstate to play a non-travelling team and the manufactured bye in Round 4 for Melbourne and Essendon (where the longer break became a disadvantage), the record for these matches this season is 23-3.

The only losses being:
  • Essendon in Round 11 against GWS (where the Bombers threw away a five goal lead)
  • Gold Coast in Round 16 against Brisbane (packed up for the season)
  • North Melbourne in Round 17 against Fremantle (again, packed up for the season)

The majority of the "unusual-ness" of results this season can be explained by this effect.

Take Adelaide for example. 8 of their 11 matches from Rounds 3 and 13 had less days break than their opponents. They have two matches in the fixture where they have two or more days rest over opponents - Rounds 15 and 16 - it is no coincidence these are their only wins for the entire season.

Round 6, who expected Carlton to blow away the Bulldogs? The Blues had 3 additional days of rest for that match.

Round 12, Melbourne smashed Collingwood. The Demons had 2 additional days of rest for that match.

Round 16, West Coast lost to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs had 4 additional days of rest for that match.

I could keep going on, there are examples throughout the season.


The correlation here is so strong I had to re-check several times to make sure that it was not a mistake. Whatever sliver of "integrity" the competition had completely evaporates in the face of this.

We have a FIX-ture that overwhelmingly advantages half the competition over the other, but specifically places the reigning premiers in a situation where, before even taking to the field, 6 of their 17 matches (more than a third of the season) have a near complete certainty of winning.


And this is just breaks between matches. It doesn't include absurdities such as cross-continent travel on 4 day breaks or a team playing over 80% of its matches within its home state for example. The situation is so far removed from any semblance of equity that any attempt to explain that it is rapidly decays into complete farce.


Don't expect any favours in Round 18 either: each of Geelong, Richmond and Port Adelaide have 2 day break advantages over their opponents for the final round (as do West Coast over North Melbourne - the club's single such occurrence for the season).

Statistically, the club's best chance of finishing top 4 is in Brisbane losing both of its remaining matches - a very long shot indeed.
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This is the source data, day break differential for each club after the resumption:

Day-Breaks-Differential-A.jpg

Note the following from the above image:
  • 3 of the bottom 4 positions on the ladder are occupied by clubs with a season differential of -9 or below.
  • of the 6 clubs with a season differential of -7 or below, only West Coast alone managed to make the top 8.
  • each of the 3 clubs with a season differential of 10 or above finished inside the top 8, with two of them finishing top 4.
It cannot be denied that the inequity of these totals from the fixture has had a major impact upon the outcome of the season.



If you really want the detail to 'balance' the argument, here are the figures in regard to matches with 2+ day break differentials in 2020:

Day-Breaks-Differential-B2.jpg

The figures speak for themselves. The advantage gained here is more than considerable and actually correlates far higher for wins than interstate travel.



But that alone is not the source of ire. That is instead driven by the blatant inequity of the following:

Day-Breaks-Differential-c.jpg

That's right. Left to chance alone, the likelihood of Richmond getting 6 such matches in its fixture is less than 1%.

Yet here we are.

Unless of course, you think that a 1-in-125 outcome in favour of the reigning premiers who happened to benefit from advantageous fixture anomalies in previous seasons also, is just purely coincidental.
 
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Dylan82 said:
That's right. Left to chance alone, the likelihood of Richmond getting 6 such matches in its fixture is less than 1%.

Yet here we are.

Unless of course, you think that a 1-in-125 outcome in favour of the reigning premiers who happened to benefit from advantageous fixture anomalies in previous seasons also, is just purely coincidental.
Click to expand...

All by design, working as the AFL intended.
 
Dylan82 said:
I'm not sure what your issue is with this, but the posts in question are simply a count of the number of matches this season where one team has two days or more additional break over the other. Nothing within them is either reverse engineered or fabricated.



Post 1: 2+ Additional Days Break



Post 2: Outcomes of Matches with 2+ Additional Days Break



This is the source data, day break differential for each club after the resumption:

View attachment 967297

Note the following from the above image:
  • 3 of the bottom 4 positions on the ladder are occupied by clubs with a season differential of -9 or below.
  • of the 6 clubs with a season differential of -7 or below, only West Coast alone managed to make the top 8.
  • each of the 3 clubs with a season differential of 10 or above finished inside the top 8, with two of them finishing top 4.
It cannot be denied that the inequity of these totals from the fixture has had a major impact upon the outcome of the season.



If you really want the detail to 'balance' the argument, here are the figures in regard to matches with 2+ day break differentials in 2020:

View attachment 967364

The figures speak for themselves. The advantage gained here is more than considerable and actually correlates far higher for wins than interstate travel.



But that alone is not the source of ire. That is instead driven by the blatant inequity of the following:

View attachment 967247

That's right. Left to chance alone, the likelihood of Richmond getting 6 such matches in its fixture is less than 1%.

Yet here we are.

Unless of course, you think that a 1-in-125 outcome in favour of the reigning premiers who happened to benefit from advantageous fixture anomalies in previous seasons also, is just purely coincidental.
Click to expand...
But we get to sleep in our own beds #caro

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
 
Dylan82 said:
I'm not sure what your issue is with this, but the posts in question are simply a count of the number of matches this season where one team has two days or more additional break over the other. Nothing within them is either reverse engineered or fabricated.



Post 1: 2+ Additional Days Break



Post 2: Outcomes of Matches with 2+ Additional Days Break



This is the source data, day break differential for each club after the resumption:

View attachment 967470

Note the following from the above image:
  • 3 of the bottom 4 positions on the ladder are occupied by clubs with a season differential of -9 or below.
  • of the 6 clubs with a season differential of -7 or below, only West Coast alone managed to make the top 8.
  • each of the 3 clubs with a season differential of 10 or above finished inside the top 8, with two of them finishing top 4.
It cannot be denied that the inequity of these totals from the fixture has had a major impact upon the outcome of the season.



If you really want the detail to 'balance' the argument, here are the figures in regard to matches with 2+ day break differentials in 2020:

View attachment 967364

The figures speak for themselves. The advantage gained here is more than considerable and actually correlates far higher for wins than interstate travel.



But that alone is not the source of ire. That is instead driven by the blatant inequity of the following:

View attachment 967247

That's right. Left to chance alone, the likelihood of Richmond getting 6 such matches in its fixture is less than 1%.

Yet here we are.

Unless of course, you think that a 1-in-125 outcome in favour of the reigning premiers who happened to benefit from advantageous fixture anomalies in previous seasons also, is just purely coincidental.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure it was a post by sirswampthing that highlighted the discrepancy in the first place.

The data provided by Dylan was essentially drilling down further.
 
Love this analysis. I think a lot of the fixturing is based on financial modelling rather than fairness. Either that or the afl is still using the 1985 spreadsheet that Bob in the mail room came up with.
 

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Dylan82 said:
I'm not sure what your issue is with this, but the posts in question are simply a count of the number of matches this season where one team has two days or more additional break over the other. Nothing within them is either reverse engineered or fabricated.



Post 1: 2+ Additional Days Break



Post 2: Outcomes of Matches with 2+ Additional Days Break



This is the source data, day break differential for each club after the resumption:

View attachment 967470

Note the following from the above image:
  • 3 of the bottom 4 positions on the ladder are occupied by clubs with a season differential of -9 or below.
  • of the 6 clubs with a season differential of -7 or below, only West Coast alone managed to make the top 8.
  • each of the 3 clubs with a season differential of 10 or above finished inside the top 8, with two of them finishing top 4.
It cannot be denied that the inequity of these totals from the fixture has had a major impact upon the outcome of the season.



If you really want the detail to 'balance' the argument, here are the figures in regard to matches with 2+ day break differentials in 2020:

View attachment 967364

The figures speak for themselves. The advantage gained here is more than considerable and actually correlates far higher for wins than interstate travel.



But that alone is not the source of ire. That is instead driven by the blatant inequity of the following:

View attachment 967247

That's right. Left to chance alone, the likelihood of Richmond getting 6 such matches in its fixture is less than 1%.

Yet here we are.

Unless of course, you think that a 1-in-125 outcome in favour of the reigning premiers who happened to benefit from advantageous fixture anomalies in previous seasons also, is just purely coincidental.
Click to expand...

Where did I say the data wasn't validated or reliable? What I said was a) It only tells part of the story. The other part is Richmond is the only team that played in 5 different states this fixture (5), and played on equal most amount of different grounds in the comp and b) Is boring AF and not worth paying attention to.

The other point I made is that you seem to enjoy spending hours and hours constructing spreadsheets to trawl for likes with a group of people who are only more than willing to jump on the "VFL is biased" victim narrative that is so prevalent in these parts.

This conversation is not only incredibly boring, but it underlines the victim mentality that exists among this fanbase, constantly looking for external factors to explain why West Coast isn't top four or not winning the flag every year etc. Not only is it circumspect, but spending hours upon hours posting about Richmond goes to demonstrate how much that club is fuccking this fanbase with no lube. It's weak as piss.

Everything that people say on BF about our fanbase is totally correct. It has to be the sookiest fanbase on this forum, everything that goes against us is Vic Bias and all the things that go our way are exceptions to the rule. That is epitomised by the existence of this long a dreary thread where people seem to get their joy and pleasure from engaging in negativity and "waaa, VFL is screwing us again" victim mentality. I guess misery loves company, so that's explains why this thread is 333 pages long.

It's not for me, so I kindly ask not to be quoted or tagged in to this thread anymore.
 
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giphy.gif
 
FreeTK said:
The other point I made is that you seem to enjoy spending hours and hours constructing spreadsheets to trawl for likes with a group of people who are only more than willing to jump on the "VFL is biased" victim narrative that is so prevalent in these parts.
Click to expand...

The fact of the MCG grand final deal and ridiculous unfair fixture cannot be disputed. Dylan has shown you a mountain of evidence proving this. We do continually get shafted by the AFL, big Melbourne teams (our direct rivals) are continually favored and its no coincidence. I have no idea why you think fans on a West Coast footy forum should accept this when our team is smack bang in the middle of a premiership window and this manipulation is a HUGE reason why we aren't clear premiership favorites right now. * we missed the top four by percentage to the team gifted by far the easiest draw who just happened to have won a flag last year (and therefore should have had the toughest draw). How do you explain the AFL giving us Richmond on a 4 day break and cross country travel when it was our turn to host them at Optus?
 
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Dylan82 said:
To be honest, deriving this kind of content doesn't actually take much time at all as it already exists within the same database that is used to update the squad selection/player ratings thread.
Click to expand...

The majority seem to appreciate your insight and analysis. I know I do. Please don't change because of the rants and rambles of one individual.
 
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