Expansion If the AFL expanded, where would the next team/s be?

General Giant

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Could Ballarat ever get its own team? Although many will argue Victoria has enough teams, Ballarat is becoming a major population centre in its own right, has a big catchment area and is growing at a similar pace to Melbourne and Sydney (3.8% per year population growth for the past 8 years). If Tasmania ends up transitioning from AFL cash cow to getting a full team, I wonder if Ballarat could do the same.
Isn't that the Dogs?
 

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General Giant

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No more than Hawthorn or North are a Tasmanian team. It's pretty clear from the Whitten Oval redevelopment plans that Ballarat is just a cash cow for the Dogs.
Fair enough. Isn't Ballarat only 90 mins down the road? Bit different to Tassie or even the Canberra deal.

More of a Wests Tigers Campbelltown/Leichhardt deal yeah?
 

footyfan78

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there are no other teams worthy
Two hours down the road. Maybe for outer Western suburbs people they could get there in 90 minutes
 

footyfan78

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there are no other teams worthy
Bendigo isn't growing anywhere near as fast. If present trends continue, Ballarat will get much bigger and charge towards 150k people.
I actually meant more the overall region and distance from Melbourne has more merit. I do not think either need a team.
 

Professor Knowall

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Bendigo isn't growing anywhere near as fast. If present trends continue, Ballarat will get much bigger and charge towards 150k people.
NQR - using stats from the ABS, we find this -

Bendigo population as at 30/6/18 - 116,045 - https://profile.id.com.au/bendigo/population-estimate
Ballarat population as at 30/6/18 - 107,325 - https://profile.id.com.au/ballarat

Bendigo projected population 2031 - 144,754 - http://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/victorias-regions/bendigohttp://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/victorias-regions/bendigo
Ballarat projected population 2031 - 139,650 - www.rdv.vic.gov.au/victorias-regions/ballarat

Being originally from the Wimmera, I know both cities well and consider Bendigo as an overall slightly better location than Ballarat for an AFL team, being a bit further from Melbourne, higher average income than Ballarat and more central to other population centres such as Shepparton (pop just over 66,000) and Echuca. However, I think Albury Wodonga (combined population 95,000, would be better still, being 3 hours from Melbourne and able to attract fans from Wagga (population 65,000) and Shepparton.

But having said all of this, I don't think any of the above have an actual chance. It will be Tassie for sure and after that probably Canberra, which is much bigger than Bendigo, Ballarat and Albury-Wodonga combined, though a couple of their home games could be farmed out to Albury (Lavington Oval) and Wagga (subject to a stadium development).
 

Johnny Bananas

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NQR - using stats from the ABS, we find this -

Bendigo population as at 30/6/18 - 116,045 - https://profile.id.com.au/bendigo/population-estimate
Ballarat population as at 30/6/18 - 107,325 - https://profile.id.com.au/ballarat

Bendigo projected population 2031 - 144,754 - http://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/victorias-regions/bendigohttp://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/victorias-regions/bendigo
Ballarat projected population 2031 - 139,650 - www.rdv.vic.gov.au/victorias-regions/ballarat
So here's the issue, the Victorian government sites are using population growth rates from 2006-2011 to make projections, whereas I'm using figures between 2014-2018 from population.net.au. Bendigo has consistently had figures of 1-2% growth per year for the past five years whereas Ballarat is 3-4% most years, that will add up if it continues.

We'll see what happens with Canberra, I feel like the GWS push there is simply an attempt by the AFL to sweep Canberra under the carpet and justify no full-time team there for several decades.
 

Sockeye

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Don't know where to post but what the actual fu** is going on? Posted in a few threads.

http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/publications/tabledpapers.nsf/displaypaper/4012312c8ca54ce60c1651234825835c0007b3f9/$file/tp-2312.pdf

Profile
Shanghai CRED was founded in 1999 and is based in Shanghai, China. The group’s total assets are estimated at more than A$2.0 billion. The two main agricultural investment operations in Australia include Zenith Australia Group and Australian Outback Beef Pty Ltd.
Zenith Australia Group is owned and operated under Zenith Investment Holding Pty Ltd. The Group owns seven properties in Western Australia with its portfolio including Yakka Munga and Mount Elizabeth Stations in the Kimberley, Marvel Loch Station and Goldfields Station.
Australian Outback Beef (AOB) is a joint venture between Hancock Prospecting, with a 67 percent share, and Shanghai CRED, with the remaining 33 percent share. AOB acquired S Kidman and Co Ltd at $380.5 million in December 2016. The company’s assets include 150,000 cattle on stations covering 80,000 square km across three states and the Northern Territory.

Key attendees
Mr Guojie Gui Managing Director
Ms Jing Liu Business Manager
A/Prof Ying Jiang Director, Confucius Institute UWA
Staff members from Shanghai CRED and Zenith Australia
Representatives from the Australian Football League, Australian Pork Limited and Shanghai Zhongfu.

Key discussion points  Minister MacTiernan discussed Mr Gui’s interest in establishing an agricultural innovation centre in northern Western Australia.  Mr Gui indicated his interest in a centre for educating and training young people in pastoralism and agriculture practices in partnership with the University of Western Australia.  Mr Gui offered his stations as potential research and training locations for the centre.  Further discussions on this proposal will be required.

So WTF are AFL representatives doing at a meeting in China about a Kimberley cattle station owned by Gina?
 

abcde12345

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We'll see what happens with Canberra, I feel like the GWS push there is simply an attempt by the AFL to sweep Canberra under the carpet and justify no full-time team there for several decades.
I reckon it's not so much the AFL sweeping Canberra under the rug, but more that Canberra, and the associated Riverina and Murray areas nearby ("technically" NSW) are way too convenient to use as a recruitment zone for the big investments in Sydney. GWS got a significant boost in its talent by having the area as part of their zone.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see this relationship continue, but grow weaker over time, until GWS is consistently producing talent similar to the way the Swans are, at which point another investment into the massive growth corridor in the South-West of Sydney can conveniently take the deal and zone off GWS's hands so they can focus full time on the West. Obviously there is a lot more gain for the AFL out of strong Sydney teams than a regional team, so that's my logic in that.

Sydney is obviously the goal for the AFL. Unless that changes significantly, I expect to see the Murray and Capital regions as talent factories to ensure the teams stay strong.
 

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Adroyo

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I reckon it's not so much the AFL sweeping Canberra under the rug, but more that Canberra, and the associated Riverina and Murray areas nearby ("technically" NSW) are way too convenient to use as a recruitment zone for the big investments in Sydney. GWS got a significant boost in its talent by having the area as part of their zone.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see this relationship continue, but grow weaker over time, until GWS is consistently producing talent similar to the way the Swans are, at which point another investment into the massive growth corridor in the South-West of Sydney can conveniently take the deal and zone off GWS's hands so they can focus full time on the West. Obviously there is a lot more gain for the AFL out of strong Sydney teams than a regional team, so that's my logic in that.

Sydney is obviously the goal for the AFL. Unless that changes significantly, I expect to see the Murray and Capital regions as talent factories to ensure the teams stay strong.
As a Canberran, I'm happy to be the GWS alternative. We get big crowds because we have 3 games a year here. Canberra isn't AFL mad enough to have a full time team.

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abcde12345

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As a Canberran, I'm happy to be the GWS alternative. We get big crowds because we have 3 games a year here. Canberra isn't AFL mad enough to have a full time team.

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Fair point. It would have to be the city with the most even split of interest between the rugbies and Aussie Rules. In a city of only 400k, it would probably not be sustainable for a full time team, especially if it was having trouble on the field.

And that's not even factoring in the convenience of the talent factory in the area they can send to the flagship Sydney projects.
 

FootyJunkie

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Tasmania is inevitable in the mid 2020s... the arguments and public pressure for it will be too much for the AFL to keep sweeping it under the carpet...
"fine! here you go, now shut up!" and they'll get their license.

20th side is a bit of a toss up for me. There is $$$ money to be had in a third side from Perth, with potentially the prospect of the three sides sharing a semi-frequent Sunday evening TV fixture for east coast viewers and adding an added flavor of of tribalism to Perth (Freo are south of the river embracing as far south as Mandurah and perhaps Bunbury with community reach/pre-season games out there, Eagles are the true inner city Perth club, northern suburbs and regional areas up north get around the new Joondalup side). But is it really necessary? The 2 team set up in Perth works just fine atm. Perhaps the pre-requisite would be that Freo needs to win a flag before WA3 appears, lol.

An alternative would be Canberra.... a lost opportunity that could be salvaged, with support form the Riverina region, Albury/Wodonga etc.
Still, a much daunting task to expand there than WA3 would be.

I reckon Gold Coast should rebrand as Queensland Suns and play a few games up north in Cairns and Townsville, perhaps even a token game at the Gabba against a high drawing side, but keep its primary base at Metricon. Turn the Q-Clash into a City (Lions) vs State (Suns) rivarly.
 

Walshawk

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Tasmania is inevitable in the mid 2020s... the arguments and public pressure for it will be too much for the AFL to keep sweeping it under the carpet...
"fine! here you go, now shut up!" and they'll get their license.

20th side is a bit of a toss up for me. There is $$$ money to be had in a third side from Perth, with potentially the prospect of the three sides sharing a semi-frequent Sunday evening TV fixture for east coast viewers and adding an added flavor of of tribalism to Perth (Freo are south of the river embracing as far south as Mandurah and perhaps Bunbury with community reach/pre-season games out there, Eagles are the true inner city Perth club, northern suburbs and regional areas up north get around the new Joondalup side). But is it really necessary? The 2 team set up in Perth works just fine atm. Perhaps the pre-requisite would be that Freo needs to win a flag before WA3 appears, lol.

An alternative would be Canberra.... a lost opportunity that could be salvaged, with support form the Riverina region, Albury/Wodonga etc.
Still, a much daunting task to expand there than WA3 would be.

I reckon Gold Coast should rebrand as Queensland Suns and play a few games up north in Cairns and Townsville, perhaps even a token game at the Gabba against a high drawing side, but keep its primary base at Metricon. Turn the Q-Clash into a City (Lions) vs State (Suns) rivarly.
Who do you think would follow WA3?
 

FootyJunkie

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Who do you think would follow WA3?
old West Perth fans.... perhaps if East Perth got involved and called the side the "Royal Falcons" you could get some of those supporters on board as well, maybe a few WA footy fans who never quite embraced the corporate machines of WC and Freo but may give a new start up local side a try
… fans who are not already members of Eagles and Freo who can't get to a game and want to support the "alternative"
… young folks who are moving into the northern suburbs or already growing up there yet without an affiliation... immigrants who may being to follow the game
… they wouldn't have a massive fan base right off the bat, but it would grow akin to Freo's growth in their early years

I think long term, a third side would work, it's just a question of whether its worth it or does it produce any value?
WA is already a footy state and AFL is already full entrenched
 
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