If two years ago you were told Kelly had left the club, and dangerfield would be out 9/11 of the first rounds..

[Seeds]

They get replaced by both new players to the list and existing players on the list stepping up. There’s no reason they can’t be as good.

And you think we have those players? Last time we brought in Dangerfield, Henderson, touhy, Ablett, Selwood, smith, Cameron, rivers, Macintosh, Clark, Stanley, touhy, dalhaus, smith, stevens, caddy, Rohan And Higgins to replace those players.

we don’t have the draft picks to trade and do this again over a three year period.

 

[catempire]

And you think we have those players? Last time we brought in Dangerfield, Henderson, touhy, Ablett, Selwood, smith, Cameron, rivers, Macintosh, Clark, Stanley, touhy, dalhaus, smith, stevens, caddy, Rohan And Higgins to replace those players.

we don’t have the draft picks to trade and do this again over a three year period.

Players and picks. We are only missing one R1 pick and it is made up for by two R2 picks. In 2022 and 2023 we have a full complement of picks. We also have access to free agents. There’s just no reason it can’t be done.

 

[Seeds]

Maybe once we lose ALL of these stars, we rebuild. But as you've said, we've had too much talent to not do what we've done. I fully endorse what the club has chosen to do, and we remain a pain to all other clubs, and the envy.

What the club has chosen to do has lastEd a lot longer then I thought it could.
no team has ever been able to trade for players the way we have in the past 10 years. But I still don’t think it’s sustainable.

we started from a base of one of the games greatest sides. We could afford to lose a few. We got super lucky with the Kelly trade giving us picks to keep the approach going for a few more years.

but I think it’s about to fall in a deck of cards in 2 years time.

you pay top dollar with picks for players in a trade most of the time. When you draft you can get guns for nothing.

 

[Seeds]

Players and picks. We are only missing one R1 pick and it is made up for by two R2 picks. In 2022 and 2023 we have a full complement of picks. We also have access to free agents. There’s just no reason it can’t be done.

We will see. Mathematically I say it’s against us. I see a cliff.

just like in 2006 when everyone said we will never see a recession coming again. I see the gfc equivalent Happening to the gfc.

 

[Vdubs]

What the club has chosen to do has lastEd a lot longer then I thought it could.
no team has ever been able to trade for players the way we have in the past 10 years. But I still don’t think it’s sustainable.

we started from a base of one of the games greatest sides. We could afford to lose a few. We got super lucky with the Kelly trade giving us picks to keep the approach going for a few more years.

but I think it’s about to fall in a deck of cards in 2 years time.

you pay top dollar with picks for players in a trade most of the time. When you draft you can get guns for nothing.

Agreed.
I think we will come back to more reliant drafting in a few years.
And there may be some relative short or long term pain.
In those times, we truly get to appreciate a simple win, instead of being disappointed if we are not top 4, or top 2 or premiers, every year.
From where I support, we have been spoiled and we still are.

 

[year of the cat]

We will see. Mathematically I say it’s against us. I see a cliff.

just like in 2006 when everyone said we will never see a recession coming again. I see the gfc equivalent Happening to the gfc.

I had similar thoughts a couple of years back thinking we were a likely bottom 3 side in 2023. But I’m a bit more optimistic seeing we have developed a decent core of young talent in Parfitt, Henry, Miers, Holmes, O’Connor, Close, DeKoning, Narkle and Clark. Even Krueger and Stevens are looking very promising and we still have Stephens who could be a future big bodied mid. That’s 11 players I’ve named.

In addition, we’ll still have Duncan, Blicavs, C.Guthrie, Menegola and Stewart for another 3-4 years.

The immediate needs will be to replace Selwood, Danger and Henderson. To find a decent ruck.

Then medium term to replace those 5 players mentioned in the second last paragraph. A focus on bringing in more quality young mids should be obvious.

I’m now quietly optimistic we can do this without a massive fall. We’ll likely not be a finals contender for a couple of years but if we draft/trade/FA well then we could bounce pretty quickly.

 

[Baudolino]

So who should it be in your opinion, after Selwood?

Hard to say.

I don't mind the idea of a transitional short-term appointment of Dangerfield or Stewart for 2-3 years as a bridge to the next long-term leader. I'm not sure there's anyone below the age of 28 on our list right now who stands out as ready to lead the team, so maybe it makes more sense to give the reigns to someone who like Danger until the best candidate from the next generation has more clearly emerged.

 

[Baudolino]

Given how well both Hawkins and Selwood are going at the moment I'd be extremely disappointed if at least one of them isn't still around in 2023.

 

[fpm84]

I reckon Selwood would have come close to retiring if we won last year’s GF and, though his form suggests he has another 12 months in him, think he’ll do it this year if we win it. I think he would have seen how Ling and Ottens retired on a high with a bit left in the tank and that he’s giving it everything to add ‘premiership captain’ to his legacy.

If he was to retire this year I’d think Duncan would be the obvious choice as captain. Experienced, reliable, respected; still has 3+ years of good football left you’d expect, and great with the media.

 

[Overhang]

We will see. Mathematically I say it’s against us. I see a cliff.

just like in 2006 when everyone said we will never see a recession coming again. I see the gfc equivalent Happening to the gfc.

There is no doubt at some time it's going to occur, it just has to and I don't think anyone really thought we would hold out this long. One person who is never mentioned in the cliff who is pivotal to the success of our club is Scott. I know some here disagree however their are too many in the AFL coaching community who rate him highly, he is a great coach, is he the best coach... prob not however the odds of getting better are unlikely. I think at some point Scott is going to turn around and say he no longer has the drive or passion to remain a senior coach and will want a break from the industry, a few comments he has made this year make me think it might be sooner rather than later.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Bartel, Chappy, SJ, Corey, Kelly, and Pods - 3 years.

Plus Ling Mooney Scarlett Ottens Hunt Byrnes all within those 3 years and then Stokes Kelly Mackie Rivers Varcoe etc all within 3 years after..we have been turning over quality experienced players for a long time and still staying competitive.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Depends on the timing I think. If it’s end of this year I could see Paddy taking over. Blicavs next most likely. If it’s any later we need a generational change and I’d say Stewart would be most likely.

O’Connor is in the leadership group which gives you an insight into succession planning.

If Joel hands it over id assume Paddy Blitz or Duncan (im excluding guthrie as i assume he doesnt want it but hed be a good choice) as all three are young enough and respected enough. If Joel keeps it 2 more years all of those guys will be too old (though they will still be playing) to be captain options then and Stewart would be 30 by then so we might need to go for someone generationally younger.

Which is why its important our young leaders really develop.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

And you think we have those players? Last time we brought in Dangerfield, Henderson, touhy, Ablett, Selwood, smith, Cameron, rivers, Macintosh, Clark, Stanley, touhy, dalhaus, smith, stevens, caddy, Rohan And Higgins to replace those players.

we don’t have the draft picks to trade and do this again over a three year period.

You realise only three of those players cost us a top 15 pick (danger cameron and caddy)and some came free as free agents. We absolutely have the capital in picks and players to bring in a similar set of top up players over the next 3-4 years if we choose to.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Players and picks. We are only missing one R1 pick and it is made up for by two R2 picks. In 2022 and 2023 we have a full complement of picks. We also have access to free agents. There’s just no reason it can’t be done.

We have 3 R2 picks and a R3 this year actually. But totally agree with your post.

 

[catempire]

We have 3 R2 picks and a R3 this year actually. But totally agree with your post.

Yeah I meant two extra R2s.

 

[Tony Barber]

It's pretty difficult to show you are a leader under the shadow of Selwood.
But the club would know already.

My guess is Patrick will get the gig and then they'll see who presents.

I don't want Stewart, Blicavs, Parfitt. etc.
We have a few years.

 

[And_ROOS]

If Selwood retired this year, I feel like Danger or Duncan would get it for a couple of years until the next obvious candidate came through. One from left field for me would be Mark O'Connor but I feel like long term might be Sam Simpson or Jack Henry could develop into good leaders.

 

[feelinfeline]

I had similar thoughts a couple of years back thinking we were a likely bottom 3 side in 2023. But I’m a bit more optimistic seeing we have developed a decent core of young talent in Parfitt, Henry, Miers, Holmes, O’Connor, Close, DeKoning, Narkle and Clark. Even Krueger and Stevens are looking very promising and we still have Stephens who could be a future big bodied mid. That’s 11 players I’ve named.

In addition, we’ll still have Duncan, Blicavs, C.Guthrie, Menegola and Stewart for another 3-4 years.

The immediate needs will be to replace Selwood, Danger and Henderson. To find a decent ruck.

Then medium term to replace those 5 players mentioned in the second last paragraph. A focus on bringing in more quality young mids should be obvious.

I’m now quietly optimistic we can do this without a massive fall. We’ll likely not be a finals contender for a couple of years but if we draft/trade/FA well then we could bounce pretty quickly.

No mention of Sam Simpson? He was a favourite on here late last year.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We have traded a lot of our good picks. Lost two first rounders for cameron, one for danger, one for henderson. A number of second rounders for the others.

We have managed to keep it going cos we got lots of draft picks for kelly and our core side is still there. It wont be for much longer. We need to find replacements for danger, selwood and hawkins within the next 18 months and then a year or two latwr we need replacements for duncan, rohan, henderson, blicavs, stanley, guthrie, touhy. We can not replave those players through trading over the next 3 years. We dont have the picks to do it. This is when the approach falls apart.

To put how badly Hawthorn mismanaged their current situation into the correct context consider the following:

Since the last time the Hawks went top 4 they have taken 2 first round draft selections. We have taken 4. That's the same number they've taken in the top 40. We've drafted 11 top 50 selections (Inc Krueger) in that period, whereas they've taken 8. The Hawks traded out of drafting for years before that. We didn't, drafting kids like Parfitt, Sav, Miers, Henry.

Consider also that unlike the Hawks, our upcoming issue is going to be isolated to the midfield. Our backline just needs SDK and one KPD. Our forward line maybe just add a medium sized over the next couple of years.

Our issue is going to big no doubt. But with MOC as the tagger, Clark hopefully sticking around on one wing, Parfitt already established, 3 more years of Guthrie, Narkle potentially developing a tank, and the possibility of Stephens or Holmes coming on, the actual shopping list is likely a ruck and maybe one really good mid, at worst 2.

The truth is we've been competing the last three years and our rebuild is still further advanced than theirs.

 

[Baudolino]

Consider also that unlike the Hawks, our upcoming issue is going to be isolated to the midfield. Our backline just needs SDK and one KPD. Our forward line maybe just add a medium sized over the next couple of years.

Mostly agree with your appraisal of the Hawks although I will say I think they've already pretty much got their defence sorted long-term. All their best young players (Jiath, Day, Grainger-Barras, Scrimshaw) are concentrated in that end of the ground, and they have Sicily and Impey too who are only in their mid-20s.

Mids and forwards are another thing altogether though for them.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Mostly agree with your appraisal of the Hawks although I will say I think they've already pretty much got their defence sorted long-term. All their best young players (Jiath, Day, Grainger-Barras, Scrimshaw) are concentrated in that end of the ground, and they have Sicily and Impey too who are only in their mid-20s.

Mids and forwards are another thing altogether though for them.

Yeah they have the backline pieces for sure, but so do we and we didn't need 2 years of being irrelevant to build it.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

its Only last while selwood, Dangerfield and Hawkins have been the backbone of the said. Once they are gone it’s all up unless we recruit readymade players to replace them. Good luck with that.

we didn’t lose the core of our premiership team and rejuvenate??

we relied in selwood?? He averaged 17 touches last year in a side that made the grand final. We had absolutely no reliance whatsoever on him making a grand final.

so two players now are apparently the only reason we are good??

This is some laughable stuff right here

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Agreed.
I think we will come back to more reliant drafting in a few years.
And there may be some relative short or long term pain.
In those times, we truly get to appreciate a simple win, instead of being disappointed if we are not top 4, or top 2 or premiers, every year.
From where I support, we have been spoiled and we still are.

we have entirely redeveloped from scratch since our premiership bar 2 players the side we currently have right now. So it obviously can be sustained and done as long as it’s done right. A lot will depend on the important 3 aspects of list management
1. Draft
2. Trades
3. Free agency

we have done well in all 3 aspects since 1999. A very long time.

can we continue to do this?? I don’t see us any different to 17 other clubs right now. If we Continue to nail all 3 we will stay a good team.

the key is to nail all 3 aspects. The days of the draft only are gone and won’t win you a flag. Melbourne and bulldogs who are 1-2 both hit free agency and trades for key aspects of their side.

melbournes entire back line which is the AFLs best is via free agency and trading.

 

[Seeds]

we didn’t lose the core of our premiership team and rejuvenate??

we relied in selwood?? He averaged 17 touches last year in a side that made the grand final. We had absolutely no reliance whatsoever on him making a grand final.

so two players now are apparently the only reason we are good??

This is some laughable stuff right here

Well last year you can add in Taylor to the core group that kept us going. and this is about a decade not one season.

 

[Seeds]

You realise only three of those players cost us a top 15 pick (danger cameron and caddy)and some came free as free agents. We absolutely have the capital in picks and players to bring in a similar set of top up players over the next 3-4 years if we choose to.

4 top picks. You only get 1 a year. And a lot of seconds and thirds.

we can’t give up 4 top picks over the next 3 years.