If We Got Cameron, How Come.....

[Partridge]

Interesting. Thanks.

Do you have an age profile for each of the starting teams?

I’m working on one for grand finalists and eventual premiers. Will share when done.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

But Dusty WAS there, and the result was inevitable because of that, the fact that their game plan was / is superior to ours, and they had / have superior fitness and speed.

I don't think that's inevitable at all. We have a tendency to attribute certain outcomes as having been inevitable after the fact because we struggle to think how later outcomes are influenced by earlier ones. Richmond for all their dominance weren't the favourites on grand final day, $1.75 for the crows $2.25 for Richmond. If Tom Hawkins didn't get suspended do they even make it to the 2019 gf?

It happened yes, but outcomes in footy are not deterministic. We were a far, far better side than the Hawks in 08 so our premiership that year was inevitable by that logic.

 

[Cataholic]

I’m working on one for grand finalists and eventual premiers. Will share when done.

Thanks Partridge.

Will be an interesting insight.

 

[catempire]

For the sake of reference, here's the number of trade-ins for every premiership team since 2012. We had 7 trade-ins in our 22 in the Grand Final last year, which is well within the normal range of every premiership-winning team of the last decade. That's not to suggest our list construction method has been identical to these teams, or that our recruitment philosophy hasn't had differences, but the idea that we've been wildly outside some kind of "draft only" norm in our approach is false.

Sydney 2012 (6 of 22 traded in)

Kennedy
Richards
Mattner
Shaw
Mumford
Morton

Hawthorn 2013 (7 of 22 traded in)

Burgoyne
Guerra
Gibson
Hale
Gunston
Lake
Simpkin

Hawthorn 2014 (7 of 22 traded in)

Burgoyne
Gibson
Gunston
Hale
Lake
Spangher
McEvoy

Hawthorn 2015 (7 of 22 traded in)

Burgoyne
Gibson
Gunston
Hale
Lake
McEvoy
Frawley

Bulldogs 2016 (2 of 22 traded in)

Boyd
Biggs

Richmond 2017 (6 of 22 traded in)

Grigg
Houli
Nankervis
Caddy
Prestia
Townsend

West Coast 2018 (6 of 22 traded in)

Kennedy
Cripps
Yeo
Redden
Jetta
Vardy

Richmond 2019 (5 of 22 traded in)

Houli
Caddy
Prestia
Nankervis
Lynch

Richmond 2020 (4 of 22 traded in)

Houli
Nankervis
Prestia
Lynch

Pesky facts.

 

[Baudolino]

Thanks Partridge.

Will be an interesting insight.

Spoiler alert: it's high.

The only winners since 2011 with an average age under 26+ were Bulldogs 2015 and Richmond 2017.

 

[catempire]

It’s also relevant to point out the average age of current lists:

Clubs ranked by average age

1	St Kilda	25.4
2	Geelong Cats	25.3
3	West Coast Eagles	25.0
4	Richmond	24.8
5	Western Bulldogs	24.7
6	Melbourne	24.6
7	Hawthorn	24.6
8	GWS Giants	24.5
9	Port Adelaide	24.4
10	Sydney Swans	24.3
11	Carlton	24.3
12	Collingwood	24.2
13	Fremantle	23.9
14	Essendon	23.9
15	Brisbane Lions	23.9
16	North Melbourne	23.8
17	Gold Coast Suns	23.7
18	Adelaide Crows	23.7

One might note the correlation of winning with age.

 

[Partridge]

It’s also relevant to point out the average age of current lists:

Clubs ranked by average age

1	St Kilda	25.4
2	Geelong Cats	25.3
3	West Coast Eagles	25.0
4	Richmond	24.8
5	Western Bulldogs	24.7
6	Melbourne	24.6
7	Hawthorn	24.6
8	GWS Giants	24.5
9	Port Adelaide	24.4
10	Sydney Swans	24.3
11	Carlton	24.3
12	Collingwood	24.2
13	Fremantle	23.9
14	Essendon	23.9
15	Brisbane Lions	23.9
16	North Melbourne	23.8
17	Gold Coast Suns	23.7
18	Adelaide Crows	23.7

One might note the correlation of winning with age.

You also need the ages of the 22 that take the field every week.

 

[Baudolino]

You also need the ages of the 22 that take the field every week.

That would also correlate with winning. Probably even more so.

 

[Partridge]

That would also correlate with winning. Probably even more so.

Good. Given the number of 30+ year olds we have, I’m now expecting a golden run of success. 2007-2011 will be a blip by comparison.

 

[catempire]

You also need the ages of the 22 that take the field every week.

It’s all here:

AFL Team Selections

Up to date AFL team selections.

www.footywire.com

 

[Turbocat]

But we have Wells. Are you saying his not as good as we all think?

You might want to think about reliance on SW...

Geelong Advertiser

No Cookies

www.geelongadvertiser.com.au

 

[Down at K Park]

Yep, take out Dusty and maybe they wouldn’t have even won one flag.

Sadly for us (and the other teams) you can’t take out Dusty.

But, yes, there’s no guarantees with the draft.

Well you can take him out. Might not be legal though.

 

[Cataholic]

I don't think that's inevitable at all. We have a tendency to attribute certain outcomes as having been inevitable after the fact because we struggle to think how later outcomes are influenced by earlier ones. Richmond for all their dominance weren't the favourites on grand final day, $1.75 for the crows $2.25 for Richmond. If Tom Hawkins didn't get suspended do they even make it to the 2019 gf?

It happened yes, but outcomes in footy are not deterministic. We were a far, far better side than the Hawks in 08 so our premiership that year was inevitable by that logic.

Yes, there are many more factors in play than just age, trades etc.

For that reason I saw the result as inevitable. Richmond had us covered in the majority of areas, especially a better game plan and ability to run it out, imo.

 

[feelinfeline]

Well you can take him out. Might not be legal though.

And you might have to deal with his dad's mates afterwards.

 

[Baudolino]

Yes, there are many mire factors in play than just age, trades etc.

For that reason I saw the result as inevitable. Richmond had us covered in the majority of areas, especially a better game plan and ability to run it out, imo.

Was Collingwood's win over Richmond in the 2018 Prelim "inevitable"? If so, why?

 

[ninjahcat]

There's got to be a crunch sooner or later when a club focuses on older players for a period of time......it creates a playing group that will suffer a more pronounced downturn as the consequence of Father Time and rolling retirements outpace the development of a reduced list of youth.

That’s not always a bad thing.
i know Scott did a great job of bucking the trend but the reality is you need a few years towards the bottom to snare some top 10 picks.
If we fall off a cliff then as long as it’s accompanied by some clever drafting we may end up well positioned.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

That’s not always a bad thing.
i know Scott did a great job of bucking the trend but the reality is you need a few years towards the bottom to snare some top 10 picks.
If we fall off a cliff then as long as it’s accompanied by some clever drafting we may end up well positioned.

I think it depends. If you're a good team who underperformed for a season then yeah the top 10 pick makes you better.

If you're genuinely earning that early pick then the losses incurred to get there make you worse than the top 10 pick makes you better

 

[cats_09]

With SDK to debut tomorrow it'll mean 3 debutants within the first 5 rounds this season, and meaning it's clear the MC isn't afraid to give the kids a go

So maybe Kreuger yet to debut is saying more about where he's at with his game than the club not wanting to look at the options on the list

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

And yet watching osmemo9f last nights game WC did a good job of mimicking us. Slow short kicks across the back line slowly moving it forward. Think our problem is between the ears or perhaps between Chris Scott's long untidy hair and beard

I think Scotty really, really enjoyed the hobo aspect of hub life last year and now it's just himself. Hobo Chris.

 

[Shai]

With SDK to debut tomorrow it'll mean 3 debutants within the first 5 rounds this season, and meaning it's clear the MC isn't afraid to give the kids a go

So maybe Kreuger yet to debut is saying more about where he's at with his game than the club not wanting to look at the options on the list

Yeah, hate to say it but Freddy looked somewhat clumsy in the practice match. Would prefer him to be showing the way now.

That’s not always a bad thing.
i know Scott did a great job of bucking the trend but the reality is you need a few years towards the bottom to snare some top 10 picks.
If we fall off a cliff then as long as it’s accompanied by some clever drafting we may end up well positioned.

So you back in our 'new draft managers' to produce?

 

[cats_09]

I'm aiming to get to the VFL match on Sunday - booked in for an early lunch ahead of that match

Will try to keep an eye on Kreuger, and our other senior options, to see how different options are going

And as much as I say that, I'll probably end up just watching the match and not paying too closer attention to individual players

No Freddie in the VFL tomorrow - will have to wait for another match to watch him more closely