If we're gonna lose...

[DaveW]

First of all, this thread's devoted to ant. His pessimism - believing we can still slip to 7th - has forced me to get the spreadsheet out and see what it takes to stay in 6th.

So the following is what we need to score (the absolute MINIMUM) to stay in 6th.

e.g. Going by the first line: if Port win 75-1, we stay 6th; if Port win 75-0, we drop to 7th.

Port	Adel	margin
75	1	74
76	2	74
77	3	74
78	4	74
79	5	74
80	6	74
81	8	73
82	9	73
83	10	73
84	11	73
85	12	73
86	14	72
87	15	72
88	16	72
89	17	72
90	18	72
91	19	72
92	21	71
93	22	71
94	23	71
95	24	71
96	25	71
97	26	71
98	28	70
99	29	70
100	30	70
101	31	70
102	32	70
103	33	70
104	35	69
105	36	69
106	37	69
107	38	69
108	39	69
109	41	68
110	42	68
111	43	68
112	44	68
113	45	68
114	46	68
115	48	67
116	49	67
117	50	67
118	51	67
119	52	67
120	53	67
121	55	66
122	56	66
123	57	66
124	58	66
125	59	66
126	60	66
127	62	65
128	63	65
129	64	65
130	65	65
131	66	65
132	68	64
133	69	64
134	70	64
135	71	64
136	72	64
137	73	64
138	75	63
139	76	63
140	77	63
141	78	63
142	79	63
143	80	63
144	82	62
145	83	62
146	84	62
147	85	62
148	86	62
149	87	62
150	89	61
151	90	61
152	91	61
153	92	61
154	93	61
155	95	60
156	96	60
157	97	60
158	98	60
159	99	60
160	100	60
161	102	59
162	103	59
163	104	59
164	105	59
165	106	59
166	107	59
167	109	58
168	110	58
169	111	58
170	112	58
171	113	58
172	114	58
173	116	57
174	117	57
175	118	57
176	119	57
177	120	57
178	122	56
179	123	56
180	124	56
181	125	56
182	126	56
183	127	56
184	129	55
185	130	55
186	131	55
187	132	55
188	133	55
189	134	55
190	136	54
191	137	54
192	138	54
193	139	54
194	140	54
195	141	54
196	143	53
197	144	53
198	145	53
199	146	53
200	147	53

So Port would need to win by some 10 goals or so to see us on a road trip next week.

 

[SAbella]

Win or lose, looks like (luckily) we'll be playing at AAMI next weekend-phew!

Still hoping for fourth though...

 

[macca23]

Thanks Dave. That's very comprehensive and you'd think we could keep their score below 126 points and the margin below 11 goals.

Now I know that you're the master of this, and I can never remember it.

Let's say we finish 6th and we defeat West Coast, then who do we play the loser of - Port v Sydney or Pies v Lions??

And if we win that one which group do we swing into for the prelim??

 

[DaveW]

Originally posted by macca23
Let's say we finish 6th and we defeat West Coast, then who do we play the loser of - Port v Sydney or Pies v Lions??

The winner of 6 v 7 plays the loser of 2 v 3.

So it would be a trip to the MCG or the Gabba.

 

[MarksGirl-kbcrowgirl]

somebody quoted shakira the other day - whenever, wherever - I don't really mind just as long as we win!

k
xx

 

[tribey]

mmmmm shakira...

 

[macca23]

Originally posted by DaveW
The winner of 6 v 7 plays the loser of 2 v 3.

So it would be a trip to the MCG or the Gabba.

Okay, so we would want Brizzy to win, as our better chance would be Collingwood at the G.

Then if we were to win that, then we would play Port or Sydney in the prelim. Port most probably.


If we win against Port this week, then we must play the winner of Sydney and Essendon at home if we lose for the right to play the winner of the Pies and Brisbane. Right?

And if we win against Port both times where would our prelim be played?

 

[DaveW]

Originally posted by macca23
Okay, so we would want Brizzy to win, as our better chance would be Collingwood at the G.

Then if we were to win that, then we would play Port or Sydney in the prelim. Port most probably.


If we win against Port this week, then we must play the winner of Sydney and Essendon at home if we lose for the right to play the winner of the Pies and Brisbane. Right?

All correct.

And if we win against Port both times where would our prelim be played?

OK, there has to be one preliminary at the MCG.

If Collingwood win their qualifying final, then they'll host a preliminary final at the MCG.

If Port lose their qualifying final and Brisbane win theirs, then the Lions will host a preliminary final at the Gabba. With the other one at the MCG.

 

[kirky]

There are no ifs and buts because we HAVE to win tommorow to ensure that we don't have to go to the Brisbane (should they lose to the Wobblers) in the second week. Yes, playing the Coasters in week 1 is ok but not preferred for obvious reasons.

 

[kirky]

Originally posted by macca23
And if we win against Port both times where would our prelim be played?

Providing the Woods won in week one and everything went according to seedings (except us winning week one) then we would play the Lions at AAMI. Teams crossover therefore allowing for the teams playing in week 1 to possibly play off in the GF.

 

[macca23]

Originally posted by DaveW
All correct.

OK, there has to be one preliminary at the MCG.

If Collingwood win their qualifying final, then they'll host a preliminary final at the MCG.

If Port lose their qualifying final and Brisbane win theirs, then the Lions will host a preliminary final at the Gabba. With the other one at the MCG.

Geez, what a mix-up.

Depending whether we're 4th or 6th and if 4th whether we win or lose our first final, determines whether we want Brisbane or the Pies to win.

Ah well. We'll either know or partly know tomorrow.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Originally posted by dyertribe

mmmmm shakira...

 

[DaveW]

Port	Adel	margin
94	23	71

Phew, at least we got those 23+ points.

 

[ant]

Awww, a thread devoted to me, shucks.

To be honest, I was stunned we kept the margin to under 8 goals today.

 

[DaveW]

Originally posted by ant
Awww, a thread devoted to me, shucks.

To be honest, I was stunned we kept the margin to under 8 goals today.

Ah that famous ant pessimism again.

 

[ant]

Originally posted by DaveW
Ah that famous ant pessimism again.

Thankfully they did miss a few.

PS I prefer to be known as a realist.