littleduck said:
If the UNSC had been united. If the French and the Russians had been totally on board and using all the backdoor diplomatic pressure they could command - while at the same time leaving Saddam in no doubt they would back the military option if necessary - then there would have been insurmountable pressure on Saddam, his odious sons and his key Baathist henchman to go into voluntary exile in Libya or some other sympathetic Arab state and the war would never have happened
Instead the French and the Russians were so hopelessly compromised by their backdoor arms and oil deals with Saddam and by the fact that they'd been assisting Saddam to rort the UN Oil for Food Program - all of which was meticulously documented by the Iraqis as useful future blackmail - that they did the opposite - fed Saddam's delusions that he could avoid complying with the UN sanctions AND avoid a war with the US and UK.
He was also assisted in these delusions by the massive anti War demos in the West which would have led him to the belief that the UK at least would not stay the distance.
Personally, even though it would have avoided a war, and this ongoing jihadist war, I don't think the outcome would have been been good for Iraq. It would have left the basic Baathist infrastructure intact and the Baathist Army and security forces, and I can't imagine we would have seen these elections this year or any sort of democratic framework for the country.
The Iraqis and the Americans have had to pay a big blood price for the removal of Saddam, but that has just re-inforced their determination to make this democratic, federal Iraq work.
