If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

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PiesUserName

Senior List
Apr 11, 2015
213
469
AFL Club
Collingwood
Since 1990, only 3 teams (Adelaide, Brisbane and Hawthorn) have won consecutive Grand Finals.
West Coast should maybe write the year off and blood some kids and have a real crack at it in the 2020 season.

Wait....it has just been discovered that 100% of previous clubs that have won consecutive premierships since 1990, that they all have yellow/gold in their team colours....This now changes everything.
 

beerbandit

All Australian
Mar 7, 2006
871
567
AFL Club
Collingwood
Dwayne Russell made a comment midway through the second quarter in the Dons Saints game that “somehow he felt the bombers season was on the line” . It was the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard a commentator say midway through the second quarter of the second game. FFS there are 20 more games to go!!!
 

OniAu

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 4, 2007
5,819
5,369
Bendigo
AFL Club
Collingwood
Dwayne Russell made a comment midway through the second quarter in the Dons Saints game that “somehow he felt the bombers season was on the line” . It was the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard a commentator say midway through the second quarter of the second game. FFS there are 20 more games to go!!!
Wish his commentator position was on the line with 20 rounds to go.

Yeah he loves his calls like that. Especially loves to call a game over with 15 minutes to go if a team gets out to a two goal lead


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

nahnah

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 26, 2012
23,811
31,805
AFL Club
Collingwood
Melbourne 0-2 play bombers who are 0-2


Then the week after Melbourne play Sydney who are 0-2 so one of Sydney and Melbourne at best will be 1-3 (potentially 0-4) at the end of round 4
 

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caspian

Team Captain
Jan 6, 2019
416
669
AFL Club
West Coast
Surely there's someone on here with an excel spreadsheet open and a lot of time to kill at work? Would love to see a proper analysis of this done since, say, the top 8 began. How much does 0-2 fry your season? What about 0-4? Remember us in '96 going 1-4 then winning 11 in a row (not that we won or anything), or Sydney in '16, but how big anomalies are these?

44 teams started 0-2.
1 Earned finals off their own back. (Sydney 2014)
I had to word it that way because Carlton 2013 did make it based on Essendon being kicked out.
It'd be interesting to see how many of these 44 teams were expected to make the finals. Melbourne 2011 or whatever most likely lost their first two, but does that really effect (affect? no idea) the stats in a meaningful way? You list 7 good examples of teams who fell dramatically after going 0-2, and that's cool, but it's also a much smaller/less meaningful sample size than 44 teams. If we're talking 1/8 suddenly it's a 12.5% chance which is a rather different story.
 
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Billy ray

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 10, 2013
15,087
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The Valley near the Alley
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Gold Coast
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Hell no
Surely there's someone on here with an excel spreadsheet open and a lot of time to kill at work? Would love to see a proper analysis of this done since, say, the top 8 began. How much does 0-2 fry your season? What about 0-4? Remember us in '96 going 1-4 then winning 11 in a row (not that we won or anything), or Sydney in '16, but how big anomalies are these?



It'd be interesting to see how many of these 44 teams were expected to make the finals. Melbourne 2011 or whatever most likely lost their first two, but does that really effect (affect? no idea) the stats in a meaningful way? You list 7 good examples of teams who fell dramatically after going 0-2, and that's cool, but it's also a much smaller/less meaningful sample size than 44 teams. If we're talking 1/8 suddenly it's a 12.5% chance which is a rather different story.
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&...aw3oWnPUWRY1Rl0_S28m8iqc&ust=1554076547942332
 

caspian

Team Captain
Jan 6, 2019
416
669
AFL Club
West Coast
Cheers. Yeah, there's probably something to be said about an 18 team comp making finals a fair bit harder to reach as well.

Like it may not have mattered back in '98 or something where a 11 win season would probably get you in contention for the finals. Now it's closer to 13 wins required.. stating the obvious but it's much easier to go 11-9 than 13-7 after starting the season 0-2.
 

Hank Scorpion

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2013
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Not quite OP's question, but based quick scan of seasons with 18 teams: on average, 6 of the 8 teams that are in the top 8 by the end of round 2 will make finals.

So at least a couple of BL/Port/WB/StK and probably Freo should continue to surprise.

Tigers, Hawks, Crows and Eagles still hunting for finals already means that Essendon and Melbourne are statistically up against it.
 

caspian

Team Captain
Jan 6, 2019
416
669
AFL Club
West Coast
Not quite OP's question, but based quick scan of seasons with 18 teams: on average, 6 of the 8 teams that are in the top 8 by the end of round 2 will make finals.

So at least a couple of BL/Port/WB/StK and probably Freo should continue to surprise.

Tigers, Hawks, Crows and Eagles still hunting for finals already means that Essendon and Melbourne are statistically up against it.
IF you're keen/bored, care to do one since the top 8's beginning?

Would be neat to do it from round 2/round 10/round 18 or something
 

Hank Scorpion

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2013
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Putting some updated numbers to this, since 2012:

After R2:
Teams 2-0 have made finals 29/39 times (74%)
Teams 1-1 24/48 (50%)
Teams 0-2 3/39 (8%)

Collingwood 2018, Sydney 2017 & 2014 are the exceptions. Both times Sydney were coming back off a GF appearance, so them bouncing back wasn't too surprising. I don't think any of 0-2 teams this year have that pedigree, so they'll be long shots.


As for when the top 8 starts to solidify:

After R2, on average 5.7 teams in the 8 at the end of the week made finals (so already there's likely to be a couple of underdogs holding on)
After R5, 6.3
After R8, 6.7
After R18, 7.3


IF you're keen/bored, care to do one since the top 8's beginning?

Would be neat to do it from round 2/round 10/round 18 or something
Without some stats wizardry, that would skew the results. Easier to come back from 0-2 with only 16 teams vs. 18.
 

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