If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

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SBD Gonzalez

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 5, 2012
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Kidding, right?
I'm just hesitant to write Sydney off, afterall they've only missed finals once in the past 16 seasons.

Even if they miss finals this year I can see them bounce back next year.
Not with our coach’s sclerotic inability to alter our game plan.

The game’s moved on but Horse can’t, or won’t, adapt.

Mystifying but becoming more clear with every passing week.
 

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Black Stripe

Yellow Paint
Feb 15, 2019
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Not with our coach’s sclerotic inability to alter our game plan.

The game’s moved on but Horse can’t, or won’t, adapt.

Mystifying but becoming more clear with every passing week.
It's a shame Horse hasn't adapted as I've always rated him as a coach.

I see him and Chris Scott as being very similar in many ways.

Except Chris Scott has finally changed things up this year instead of going with the tried old gameplan from previous years.

I had hopes coming into the season that Horse would do the same as what Scott has but sadly he hasn't.
 

SBD Gonzalez

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Jul 5, 2012
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Kidding, right?
It's a shame Horse hasn't adapted as I've always rated him as a coach.

I see him and Chris Scott as being very similar in many ways.

Except Chris Scott has finally changed things up this year instead of going with the tried old gameplan from previous years.

I had hopes coming into the season that Horse would do the same as what Scott has but sadly he hasn't.
Yep.
 

Power Raid

TheBrownDog
Oct 15, 2004
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you can Rule out Sydney, Carlton, North Melbourne, Essendon and Melbourne then.

I swear your mob went 0-2 and ended up 18-4 in 2002 or 2003.
Port were at their peak during that period. I can’t say that about any of the above sides.

Being 0-2 isn’t the end of the world, rather an assessment of where those teams are at. Same said for port being 2-0, they to have no chance for a flag this year.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
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When does the ladder ‘set’

Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s after round 3
There's no real inflection point. On average it just gets steadily more accurate one round at a time.

It gets accurate faster earlier, though. That is, you learn more about most teams in the first 2 rounds than you do in the next 2 after that.

By about halfway through the season, most of the effects of fixture bias have been shaken out, so at that point the ladder is a very good estimate of the final ladder, roughly on par with the accuracy you'd get from computer modeling or human prediction. The ladder will still change, of course, but due to unpredictable things, like fluctuations in form or injury, and not just teams having a run of especially tough or soft games.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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There's no real inflection point. On average it just gets steadily more accurate one round at a time.

It gets accurate faster earlier, though. That is, you learn more about most teams in the first 2 rounds than you do in the next 2 after that.

By about halfway through the season, most of the effects of fixture bias have been shaken out, so at that point the ladder is a very good estimate of the final ladder, roughly on par with the accuracy you'd get from computer modeling or human prediction. The ladder will still change, of course, but due to unpredictable things, like fluctuations in form or injury, and not just teams having a run of especially tough or soft games.
Squiggsy thinks all 5 0-2 teams will fill the bottom 7 on the ladder - yet more proof a HUGE amount of information can be taken from the fact a team has started 0-2.
 

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Testekill

Don't look at me like that
Dec 3, 2009
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This sounds like a blueprint for building a carlton / melbourne
Yeah, it's sort of immediately throwing everything away since it's not working. Now reshuffling options or throwing a bunch of kids in the deep end can work but it's best to take stock at the end of the year and decide what needs to be done.
 

Sausages

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The Lions were 0-8 last year - I'd have to do research to find something beyond that, but I'm sure there's something worse in AFL history.
 

caspian

Team Captain
Jan 6, 2019
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my memory is not so good anymore.
I reckon you may be right.
There were many Owen meme's if i recall.
Pretty sure they went 0-18 somewhere between 2000-2002. I've said it before, I'll likely say it again; having Fremantle as your cross town rival is the gift that keeps on giving.
 

Sausages

HIGH PRIEST IN THE TEMPLE OF GG/SNSD
Feb 27, 2007
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GWS went 0-17 in 2013 (but mitigating circumstances there and not really the same as an established club).

Freo went 0-17 in 2001.
 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
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i looked.
0-2 becomes 1-8 into the bye.

:(
I call bull**** I have seen your 1st half of Essendon games. No chance Essendon will go 0-11. you have 4 winnable games.

Grow some balls. Don't be as gutless as Tough Man Tony Abbott.
Who are you beating?
Go look at the bombers draw. They wont be 0-11. They have Brisbane, North, Freo and Carlton all in Melbourne.
someone is bound to slip up.
surely.....has a side ever gone 0-9?
The winnable games you have got are

Round 4 Brisbane at the MCG
Round 5 North at Marvel
Round 9 Freo at Marvel
Round 11 carlton at MCG.

Bare minimum you will nail 2 of those wins. Can win all 4. Hell, Bombers cold beat the demons at the MCG this weekend if they get their stuff right.
Didn't Fremantle Start 0-10 a few years ago?
Yep we were 0-10 in 2016. Still bitter about it to this day.
Pretty sure they went 0-18 somewhere between 2000-2002. I've said it before, I'll likely say it again; having Fremantle as your cross town rival is the gift that keeps on giving.
0-17 in 2001. Still.... That was a fluke as Freo should of won 3-4 of those close games ithe 1st half of that season.

Gift that keeps on Giving? Far from it.

Freo were far from garbage from 2010-15.
 

caspian

Team Captain
Jan 6, 2019
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Gift that keeps on Giving? Far from it.

Freo were far from garbage from 2010-15.
A few years out of 25 does not a powerhouse club make. Neither does finishing in the top 8 only 7 out of your 24 seasons.

Anyway, surprised by your % in 2001- 72.02%! I would guess that's easily the best a 2-20 team has ever went.
 

Freomaniac

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May 3, 2007
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A few years out of 25 does not a powerhouse club make. Neither does finishing in the top 8 only 7 out of your 24 seasons.

Anyway, surprised by your % in 2001- 72.02%! I would guess that's easily the best a 2-20 team has ever went.
I looked at freos 2001 results. Freo scored 1794 points which was 81.5 points a game. Conceded 2491 points or 113 points a game.

I looked at the results on Wikipedia. Yep as expected, a few 3-5 goal defeats at home. A 1 point loss at home to Carlton and a 10 point loss to the saints also at home. A 19 point loss to the swans at the MCG.

So Yeah freo had a few close games. Should of won 5-8 games rather than 2.

Still bitter about the 2016 season. averaging 73 points a game, conceding 96 points a game and got only 4 wins.

Yet in 2017, averaged 72 points a game, concede 98 points a game and got 8 wins. got belted away by 60-100 points one week then win at me the next week by 15-25 points the next.People say our win/loss record was inflated due to the close wins. True, but we could of got 10-12 wins. Definitely not a 4-18 side.
 

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