If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

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TheBrownDog
Sep 2, 2008
54,504
31,497
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Essendon
Two close away losses to top 8 teams from last year. I'm actually feeling more optimistic than I was pre-season. Not necessarily optimistic for 2020, but for us bouncing back to finals.

From the starting 22 on Saturday if you swap out Duman, Banfield, Schultz, Colyer, Cox, Hughes, Darcy and Bewley for four Best 12 experienced players in Pearce, Hamling, Hogan and Acres plus four Top 30 picks from last two drafts in Sturt, Valente, Sarong and Henry (and I'm assuming Hill is cooked) then immediately that team is hugely improved. Won't happen immediately, given Pearce, Hamling and Henry are a few weeks off, but apparently Hogan, Sarong and Valente were the pick of the team in the scratchy on the weekend and Sturt was the Rising Star from Round 1. I hope by Round 5 our team is really beginning to take shape.

Doubt we will make finals this year, but this is a squad building for a push to finals in 21/22.
There is a nucleus there to build with Freo heading in the right direction
 

projectv

mostly nonsense
May 27, 2017
4,173
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Freo wont make finals on current form.


Point is, Had freo wont those 2 close games, maybe the mindset would be different.

However.... I look at Freos next 3 games: Port, Gold coast and Crows. Can easily be 0-5.
Freo were competitive in both games.

I think they will be fine. Even more so if WA allows the borders to be open and you get a run of games in WA.

The games against Gold Coast and Adelaide should be easy wins, but who knows right now. If you're 2-3 going into round six you'd probably be a game outside the 8.

How many wins makes finals this year? 10 maybe? No club is out of it yet.
 

Schauermann

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 27, 2011
5,742
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Fremantle
Yes. Can't change it now. So winning on Sunday (and any other future game) should be our priority.

But when future is supposed to mean next year then of course no. Always play to win all games.

Btw. not feeling confident at all, but even the shorter season is still very open after just 2 rounds. Based on last years form we'll probably beat Port and loose to Adelaide with GC being a 50:50 game.
 

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tonygeeks

Premiership Player
Sep 11, 2016
4,182
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Well no Alex Pearce and no Joel Hamling hurts. that meant we have been deprived of freos 2 best and 2 most experienced mids.

Acres hurts to a degree. Hogan? He makes freos forward line better. But.... This isnt 2012-5 freo where Freos tall forward stocks was An ageing Matty Pavlich, a Young matt taberner and a young but eventually injury riddled Rory Lobb.

Freos tall forward stocks now are Hogan, a KPF/Ruck in Rory lobb, a mid 20s Matt Tarberner, a CHF/CHB swing man in Brennan Cox and a 190 cm 90 kg cam mccarthy.

Saying that any of Lobb, taberner, Cox and McCarthy can kick 30 goals each.




Considering each team playing 17 games each.

0-2 isnt the best, being 0-3 is not good either.

Being 0-10 is very disastrous. That means you only got 7 games left to avoid a winless season.

If it was each team playing 22 games each.

0-2 isnt Ideal, 0-3 isnt great either but you can recover from a 0-3 record and get 12 or 13 wins to make finals.

Being 0-10 is disastous but like Carlton that was 1-10 last season, they had 10 solid games in the 2nd half of last year and got 5-6 wins.


2017, the Swans were 0-6 and made finals at 14-8 and lost twice to the hawks in Narrow margins.

As I said, worst position is to finish 9th or 10th. At least you get a finals spot in 8th spot, even if you limp your way with injuries and get belted by 60-80 points.

Hell if you finish 16th with 5-7 wins, you get pick 3.

Hell I didnt mind freo finishing 14th in 2017 and 2018 and had pick 5. You could use pick 5 in the draft or in freos case in 2018 when they had no 2nd and 3rd rounder, traded pick 5 and pick 41 or the next years 3rd rounder for picks 10, 28 and 46.


I cant rule it out.

If your going to compare the dockers and crows current form, Dockers form is better, but its not really worth Bragging about. Crows lost by 3 points at home vs the Swans and got belted by 75 in the showdown. So crows have had 2 home state games and lost. I expect the Crows to bounce back vs the suns this week.

Freo lost by 6 points vs essendon and 12 points vs Brisbane at the Gabba. So freo had 2 Away games and lost. Freo have port this week. Suns At metricon and then the crows at Metricon.


Saying that I am hoping freo gets 1 win by round 5, if not Freo goes to WA and plays 4 Home games in WA and 2 of them are going to be the derby and the hawks.
0 - 10 jeez you would really have to wonder if you had the right coach if that happened


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
4,154
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AFL Club
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How many wins makes finals this year? 10 maybe? No club is out of it yet.
Probably 9, possibly 8 or 10.

edit: Actually, I ran the numbers. Here's the likelihood that the 8th-ranked team will have this many wins:

More than 10 wins: 2%
10 wins: 21%
9 wins 1 draw: 12%
9 wins: 51%
8 wins 1 draw: 6%
8 wins: 8%

The draw likelihood jumped this week now that two teams already have one.

Screenshot from 2020-06-17 10-39-04.png
 
Last edited:

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
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I'm unsure what it looks like this year.

On the one hand with 17 games every game matters so much more. And starting 0-2 with 15 games left is very different to having 20 games left. No double ups either so you must beat the weaker teams as it's harder to make those wins back.

On the other hand, you might only need maybe 10 wins to make finals? Possibly 8 or 9 depending on percentage? 8/9 from 15 is an easier get than 13/20 that you might usually need if you go by % of games you need to win. And if you go on a bit of a hotstreak for 3-4 games and then win every other week that might get you there with a bit of luck.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
4,154
17,002
AFL Club
Richmond
I'm unsure what it looks like this year.

On the one hand with 17 games every game matters so much more. And starting 0-2 with 15 games left is very different to having 20 games left. No double ups either so you must beat the weaker teams as it's harder to make those wins back.

On the other hand, you might only need maybe 10 wins to make finals? Possibly 8 or 9 depending on percentage? 8/9 from 15 is an easier get than 13/20 that you might usually need if you go by % of games you need to win. And if you go on a bit of a hotstreak for 3-4 games and then win every other week that might get you there with a bit of luck.
It's not as different as you might think. I can't remember what thread it was, but I had a look at that a week or two ago, and IIRC there was only one 0-2 team in the last decade or so that made finals but wouldn't have in a 17-round season. Finals-bound teams that start 0-2 tend to recover pretty quickly.
 

BarbieITFC

Team Captain
May 11, 2015
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I think it's pretty hard to draw any comparisons with previous seasons - there are just so many unique variables:

- Shorter quarters
- Shorter season
- The 12 week gap between R1 and R2 meaning some teams fielded significantly different teams between rounds
- A totally messed up pre-season
- The WA teams in particular will have a completely different travel load, and maybe a long run of home games towards the back end of the season
- A H&A season pushing well into Spring with the consequent increase in temperatures
- No mid-season bye??

I could easily see a team start 0-5 come home like a train and win 9 of their last 12 to make it into eighth.

One thing that hasn't been discussed yet (probably because 2021 seems like a lifetime away) is the impact the delayed end to the season will have on pre-season and next year - especially for the finalists. If the grand final is in late October/early November then realistically the grand finalist won't start pre-season until after Christmas.
 

Freomaniac

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May 3, 2007
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Freo were competitive in both games.

I think they will be fine. Even more so if WA allows the borders to be open and you get a run of games in WA.

The games against Gold Coast and Adelaide should be easy wins, but who knows right now. If you're 2-3 going into round six you'd probably be a game outside the 8.

How many wins makes finals this year? 10 maybe? No club is out of it yet.
I reckon those 2 close losses are going to cost freo a finals spot anyway.

As I said, the season has been turned to hell due to this virus.

On Freos current form, Port should beat freo, Gold coast to narrowly beat freo and Freo to eat the crows.

I got a gut feeling who freo will get in rounds 6-9 where freo gets their home state games. 2 of them will be Hawks and west coast, so pencil 2 freo losses there.


0 - 10 jeez you would really have to wonder if you had the right coach if that happened


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com
Yeah you wonder that. I was hoping J-lo to do well. I want him to be a semi-decent coach.
 

Mr.X

Premiership Player
Apr 27, 2007
3,542
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Leon Cameron may be wondering this on March 29
 

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