You are looking to the past not the future, if you think 0-2 is the reason to give up on the now.
Prediction Q: If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?
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sr36
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In fact, I reckon you've got to be 1-1. Teams who win both games are also in big trouble.
100% of teams that have made the Grand Final since 2017 are currently sitting at 1-1.
PiesUserName
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Since 1990, only 3 teams (Adelaide, Brisbane and Hawthorn) have won consecutive Grand Finals.
West Coast should maybe write the year off and blood some kids and have a real crack at it in the 2020 season.
Wait....it has just been discovered that 100% of previous clubs that have won consecutive premierships since 1990, that they all have yellow/gold in their team colours....This now changes everything.
West Coast should maybe write the year off and blood some kids and have a real crack at it in the 2020 season.
Wait....it has just been discovered that 100% of previous clubs that have won consecutive premierships since 1990, that they all have yellow/gold in their team colours....This now changes everything.
Why do people love to make a call that finals are over after just two games ? God this sports media commentary does my head in
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Dwayne Russell made a comment midway through the second quarter in the Dons Saints game that “somehow he felt the bombers season was on the line” . It was the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard a commentator say midway through the second quarter of the second game. FFS there are 20 more games to go!!!
Wish his commentator position was on the line with 20 rounds to go.
Yeah he loves his calls like that. Especially loves to call a game over with 15 minutes to go if a team gets out to a two goal lead
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Power Raid
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No team 0-2 will win the flag in 2019
Suns better win today. 0-2 won’t do our premiership aspirations any good because maths
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Melbourne 0-2 play bombers who are 0-2
Then the week after Melbourne play Sydney who are 0-2 so one of Sydney and Melbourne at best will be 1-3 (potentially 0-4) at the end of round 4
Then the week after Melbourne play Sydney who are 0-2 so one of Sydney and Melbourne at best will be 1-3 (potentially 0-4) at the end of round 4
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caspian
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Surely there's someone on here with an excel spreadsheet open and a lot of time to kill at work? Would love to see a proper analysis of this done since, say, the top 8 began. How much does 0-2 fry your season? What about 0-4? Remember us in '96 going 1-4 then winning 11 in a row (not that we won or anything), or Sydney in '16, but how big anomalies are these?
It'd be interesting to see how many of these 44 teams were expected to make the finals. Melbourne 2011 or whatever most likely lost their first two, but does that really effect (affect? no idea) the stats in a meaningful way? You list 7 good examples of teams who fell dramatically after going 0-2, and that's cool, but it's also a much smaller/less meaningful sample size than 44 teams. If we're talking 1/8 suddenly it's a 12.5% chance which is a rather different story.
It'd be interesting to see how many of these 44 teams were expected to make the finals. Melbourne 2011 or whatever most likely lost their first two, but does that really effect (affect? no idea) the stats in a meaningful way? You list 7 good examples of teams who fell dramatically after going 0-2, and that's cool, but it's also a much smaller/less meaningful sample size than 44 teams. If we're talking 1/8 suddenly it's a 12.5% chance which is a rather different story.
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It's going to be a big next couple of games for us that's for sure. Need to see a response.
caspian
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Cheers. Yeah, there's probably something to be said about an 18 team comp making finals a fair bit harder to reach as well.
Like it may not have mattered back in '98 or something where a 11 win season would probably get you in contention for the finals. Now it's closer to 13 wins required.. stating the obvious but it's much easier to go 11-9 than 13-7 after starting the season 0-2.
Not quite OP's question, but based quick scan of seasons with 18 teams: on average, 6 of the 8 teams that are in the top 8 by the end of round 2 will make finals.
So at least a couple of BL/Port/WB/StK and probably Freo should continue to surprise.
Tigers, Hawks, Crows and Eagles still hunting for finals already means that Essendon and Melbourne are statistically up against it.
So at least a couple of BL/Port/WB/StK and probably Freo should continue to surprise.
Tigers, Hawks, Crows and Eagles still hunting for finals already means that Essendon and Melbourne are statistically up against it.
caspian
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IF you're keen/bored, care to do one since the top 8's beginning?
Would be neat to do it from round 2/round 10/round 18 or something
At round 10
If a team is more than 2 games out of the 8 after round 10, then it's unlikely they'll make finals
Putting some updated numbers to this, since 2012:
After R2:
Teams 2-0 have made finals 29/39 times (74%)
Teams 1-1 24/48 (50%)
Teams 0-2 3/39 (8%)
Collingwood 2018, Sydney 2017 & 2014 are the exceptions. Both times Sydney were coming back off a GF appearance, so them bouncing back wasn't too surprising. I don't think any of 0-2 teams this year have that pedigree, so they'll be long shots.
As for when the top 8 starts to solidify:
After R2, on average 5.7 teams in the 8 at the end of the week made finals (so already there's likely to be a couple of underdogs holding on)
After R5, 6.3
After R8, 6.7
After R18, 7.3
Without some stats wizardry, that would skew the results. Easier to come back from 0-2 with only 16 teams vs. 18.
After R2:
Teams 2-0 have made finals 29/39 times (74%)
Teams 1-1 24/48 (50%)
Teams 0-2 3/39 (8%)
Collingwood 2018, Sydney 2017 & 2014 are the exceptions. Both times Sydney were coming back off a GF appearance, so them bouncing back wasn't too surprising. I don't think any of 0-2 teams this year have that pedigree, so they'll be long shots.
As for when the top 8 starts to solidify:
After R2, on average 5.7 teams in the 8 at the end of the week made finals (so already there's likely to be a couple of underdogs holding on)
After R5, 6.3
After R8, 6.7
After R18, 7.3
Without some stats wizardry, that would skew the results. Easier to come back from 0-2 with only 16 teams vs. 18.
Black Stripe
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Same was said in 2017 and Sydney still found a way to make the finals.
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Nup. This year is the real deal. We are rooted.
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