News Impact of COVID-19 on season 2020 and beyond

[Monument Hills]

Well the thing is we don't really know that having it once is going to give you immunity from getting it again. There are some reports of individuals having had it, recovered and then had it again. Either way, it's still unclear as to the immunity having it provides.

This relates back to how vaccines work. For example, you have no antibodies to virus X in your body. You are given a vaccine which is part of or an inactive form of the virus. Your immune system identifies this new 'virus' in your body, and begins to manufacture specific antibodies to X therein adding to the body's antibody 'library'. It takes a number of days to do this. Afterwards it keeps a base number in the library ready to go at a moment's notice.

If you later get infected by the actual virus X, the body goes yep, that one's in the library, pushes out the base numbers in the library into the bloodstream, and immediately produces large amounts of the specific antibody and goes all shock and awe on X, George Bush style, before X has a chance to grow up to numbers that are dangerous to the body. Thus, the virus' effect on the body is less than if there weren't such a base number of antibodies in the library ready to go or immediate manufacturing of more. We see the difference as reduced symptoms than if you had not had the vaccine.

When you get infected by a real virus having not had a vaccine to it previously, your body essentially does the same thing except because the virus is live and whole, it can effect various damage on the body itself or through causing the body's immune response to overreact causing other issues e.g.pnemonia etc. during the time that the body is identifying and creating antibodies to the virus.

If you survive the first infection and then catch the same virus a while later, like with the vaccine, the body's immune system is ready to go with base antibodies pushed into the bloodstream and goes all shock and awe on the virus. Therefore, there is less time for the virus to effect damage on the body before the antibodies get it under control. Therefore, you can, of course, get the same virus again like with cv19, but it's effects on the body will be far less the next time (like what happens when you are vaccinated. This is the basics of immunity and response to viruses.

The bloke who taught humankind how the above works and got a Nobel prize in the process is basically equivalent to the Don Bradman of Australian medical research. His name is Peter Doherty and he has plenty of interesting things to say about cv19 in a number of recent articles that are googlable if you are interested.

To answer your question, yes, we can have a second infection of cv19. But, as noted by Doherty and every other immunologist, the next infection should show milder symptoms [unless it happens before the first infection has been dealt with by the body and you haven't yet built up the immunity - i.e. why doctors are dying in Italy getting dose after dose of virus one after the other by multiple patients. Add in being overworked, lack of sleep, high stress. Body doesn't have time to make the antibodies and recover from first infection with rest - doctor dies. Very sad.] Hope this helps

 

[samFFC]

if the true figures are .25% this begins to think about why we had to totally trash the economy.

Chicken and egg.
The case fatality rate is (and looking back will be) much higher in places where social distancing and early detection/treatment were not widespread.

 

[Dirty_banchez]

 

[Van_Dyke]

At this stage I'm just hoping we get an intact 2021 season. I mentally wrote off 2020 weeks ago. Shame. I finally drafted a decent fantasy team this year

on the plus side having no 2020 season will make drafting next year even more wild.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

on the plus side having no 2020 season will make drafting next year even more wild.

Drafting in the dark: Swans list boss has no doubts over scouts

Experienced Sydney list manager Kinnear Beatson explains why recruiters will be ready for the draft even without footy

www.afl.com.au

Swans seem confident.

 

[arsesmart]

This relates back to how vaccines work. For example, you have no antibodies to virus X in your body. You are given a vaccine which is part of or an inactive form of the virus. Your immune system identifies this new 'virus' in your body, and begins to manufacture specific antibodies to X therein adding to the body's antibody 'library'. It takes a number of days to do this. Afterwards it keeps a base number in the library ready to go at a moment's notice.

If you later get infected by the actual virus X, the body goes yep, that one's in the library, pushes out the base numbers in the library into the bloodstream, and immediately produces large amounts of the specific antibody and goes all shock and awe on X, George Bush style, before X has a chance to grow up to numbers that are dangerous to the body. Thus, the virus' effect on the body is less than if there weren't such a base number of antibodies in the library ready to go or immediate manufacturing of more. We see the difference as reduced symptoms than if you had not had the vaccine.

When you get infected by a real virus having not had a vaccine to it previously, your body essentially does the same thing except because the virus is live and whole, it can effect various damage on the body itself or through causing the body's immune response to overreact causing other issues e.g.pnemonia etc. during the time that the body is identifying and creating antibodies to the virus.

If you survive the first infection and then catch the same virus a while later, like with the vaccine, the body's immune system is ready to go with base antibodies pushed into the bloodstream and goes all shock and awe on the virus. Therefore, there is less time for the virus to effect damage on the body before the antibodies get it under control. Therefore, you can, of course, get the same virus again like with cv19, but it's effects on the body will be far less the next time (like what happens when you are vaccinated. This is the basics of immunity and response to viruses.

The bloke who taught humankind how the above works and got a Nobel prize in the process is basically equivalent to the Don Bradman of Australian medical research. His name is Peter Doherty and he has plenty of interesting things to say about cv19 in a number of recent articles that are googlable if you are interested.

To answer your question, yes, we can have a second infection of cv19. But, as noted by Doherty and every other immunologist, the next infection should show milder symptoms [unless it happens before the first infection has been dealt with by the body and you haven't yet built up the immunity - i.e. why doctors are dying in Italy getting dose after dose of virus one after the other by multiple patients. Add in being overworked, lack of sleep, high stress. Body doesn't have time to make the antibodies and recover from first infection with rest - doctor dies. Very sad.] Hope this helps

Thanks for the mansplainin' on how immunity works . But we don't develop an immunity to the common cold now do we? It's such early doors on these coronaviruses that how their interacting with our immune system is still unclear. Not to mention that it's the mutating sort. So there's still a bit to be seen with this yet. Good chance there'll be some short-term immunity in recoverers at the very least.

I saw some interesting charts on flattening the curve across different US cities back in the 1918 "Spanish" Flu outbreak. There were some after -pikes in cities that stopped social distancing & containment measures too soon, but I'd need to go back and look to see if there was any significant after-spikes for cities that avoided the big outbreaks.

EDIT:
Here we go, an article on that. It's interesting to see how this models out the more effective containment strategies across US cities:

How they flattened the curve during the 1918 Spanish Flu

Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked.

api.nationalgeographic.com

 

[Steinfreo]

Thanks for the mansplainin' on how immunity works . But we don't develop an immunity to the common cold now do we? It's such early doors on these coronaviruses that how their interacting with our immune system is still unclear. Not to mention that it's the mutating sort. So there's still a bit to be seen with this yet. Good chance there'll be some short-term immunity in recoverers at the very least.

I saw some interesting charts on flattening the curve across different US cities back in the 1918 "Spanish" Flu outbreak. There were some after -pikes in cities that stopped social distancing & containment measures too soon, but I'd need to go back and look to see if there was any significant after-spikes for cities that avoided the big outbreaks.

EDIT:
Here we go, an article on that. It's interesting to see how this models out the more effective containment strategies across US cities:

How they flattened the curve during the 1918 Spanish Flu

Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked.

api.nationalgeographic.com

He's a pretend big brain who quietly doesn't know much beyond Wikipedia articles. I have connections with a microbiologist/virologist and she said anyone espousing the benefits of a herd immunity approach when there isnt a viable treatment or vaccine is unethical and full of s**t. She sent me an awesome picture of herself next to her PHD with distinction from UWA, pulling the finger just for our own esteemed PHD poster put I'm not going to post it.

 

[WilloTree]

Drafting in the dark: Swans list boss has no doubts over scouts

Experienced Sydney list manager Kinnear Beatson explains why recruiters will be ready for the draft even without footy

www.afl.com.au

Swans seem confident.

Swans Districts were really back on track there. The money was finally coming through the door at home games, and the coterie group were doing a great job. Clubs like Swans will be feeling this for ror the next 30 years.. if they survive.

 

[Monument Hills]

Thanks for the mansplainin' on how immunity works . But we don't develop an immunity to the common cold now do we? It's such early doors on these coronaviruses that how their interacting with our immune system is still unclear. Not to mention that it's the mutating sort. So there's still a bit to be seen with this yet. Good chance there'll be some short-term immunity in recoverers at the very least.

Thanks for the mansplainin' on how immunity works .
- "mansplainin"? I don't get it. Is my accountant mansplaining when he gives me tax advice? Does my plumber mansplain when he told me what needed doing to fix my toilets and fridge plumbing in Feb? Does my lawyer mansplain when giving their advice? This is my area of study. I was a medical researcher for years. What are you talking about?

But we don't develop an immunity to the common cold now do we?
- of course we do. But rhinoviruses are some of the fastest mutating viruses on the planet so we get infected with many different mutated strains of it. That's why sometimes it hardly affects us and you're over it in 24h with the slightest symptoms (you already had immunity built up) and other times it knocks you down for a week.

It's such early doors on these coronaviruses that how their interacting with our immune system is still unclear.
- Not really. It's a virus. The body's immune system deals with it as it does with every virus. Read Peter Doherty's research. It's only ever a question of how much damage the virus can do to the body before the immune system joins the fight with newly created antibodies to the virus.

Not to mention that it's the mutating sort.
- I've already mentioned this on this thread. The top research group in the world who monitors mutations of viruses such as these had already identified 8 strains early last week but none had been found to increase mortality rates over the original strain.

Good chance there'll be some short-term immunity in recoverers at the very least.
- yep. that's what I said earlier.

 

[StingBitten]

Interesting, my wife runs a medical practice with a doctor who's fairly high up - seems to think that if we keep on track with current numbers and hard restrictions we could effectively rule out community spread in the next few weeks.. This is based on health workers not spreading the illness between home and work.

If that was the case, full AFL season here? 5 games per weekend at Optus and 4 at the WACA.

 

[Bring back Drum]

Amen for me.

 

[freodog]

Amen for me.


View attachment 853414

Where have all the antivaxers gone?

 

[Purplrrr]

I think they've moved to 5G.

 

[GoFreo4eva]

Thanks for the mansplainin' on how immunity works .
- "mansplainin"? I don't get it. Is my accountant mansplaining when he gives me tax advice? Does my plumber mansplain when he told me what needed doing to fix my toilets and fridge plumbing in Feb? Does my lawyer mansplain when giving their advice? This is my area of study. I was a medical researcher for years. What are you talking about?

But we don't develop an immunity to the common cold now do we?
- of course we do. But rhinoviruses are some of the fastest mutating viruses on the planet so we get infected with many different mutated strains of it. That's why sometimes it hardly affects us and you're over it in 24h with the slightest symptoms (you already had immunity built up) and other times it knocks you down for a week.

It's such early doors on these coronaviruses that how their interacting with our immune system is still unclear.
- Not really. It's a virus. The body's immune system deals with it as it does with every virus. Read Peter Doherty's research. It's only ever a question of how much damage the virus can do to the body before the immune system joins the fight with newly created antibodies to the virus.

Not to mention that it's the mutating sort.
- I've already mentioned this on this thread. The top research group in the world who monitors mutations of viruses such as these had already identified 8 strains early last week but none had been found to increase mortality rates over the original strain.

Good chance there'll be some short-term immunity in recoverers at the very least.
- yep. that's what I said earlier.

I detest the word "mansplaining". First and foremost it is a corruption of language in the worst way. Second and almost as foremost is the notion that men are in general are so dumb that they need things explained in a condescending way. Imagine if the world had adopted the term womenslaining into the current lexicon.

It is condescending, inaccurate and wholly inappropriate in a society that is trying hard to create gender equality. Equality should be about eliminating the use of condescending language and not creating new words of this ilk. It is right up there with Man Flu!!

 

[mightymouse75]

I detest the word "mansplaining". First and foremost it is a corruption of language in the worts way. Second and almost as foremost is the notion that men are in general are so dumb that they need things explained in a condescending way. Imagine if the world had adopted the term womenslaining into the current lexicon.

It is condescending, inaccurate and wholly inappropriate in a society that is trying hard to create gender equality. Equality should be about eliminating the use of condescending language and not creating new words of this ilk. It is right up there with Man Flu!!

Corruption of the language in the worts way possible...

 

[Purple streak]

We can all agree the economic ramifications of the virus will be huge. If we are lucky we get an AFL "season" with no crowds. Next year when possibly the virus is gone and footy is back to normal- who is going to be able to afford a membership? Going to the footy was already a luxury item, what about next year? What about the clubs living on the edge? Could they afford a 50% drop in membership and merchandise? How much money does the AFL have? How many clubs will we lose?

 

[GoFreo4eva]

Corruption of the language in the worts way possible...

Oops! Fixed..

 

[mightymouse75]

We can all agree the economic ramifications of the virus will be huge. If we are lucky we get an AFL "season" with no crowds. Next year when possibly the virus is gone and footy is back to normal- who is going to be able to afford a membership? Going to the footy was already a luxury item, what about next year? What about the clubs living on the edge? Could they afford a 50% drop in membership and merchandise? How much money does the AFL have? How many clubs will we lose?

Hopefully only the excess Melbourne clubs that are holding the game back

 

[Ysaye]

Anyone want to speculate on having a "quarantined" AFL season?

Would it be more realistic to have one (Remote Island) or three (SA+WA+Tas) regions?

Is it realistic at all, and at what point?

Would all the players need to quarantine for 14 or x days if they were coming to say WA from Melbourne (assuming they got special excemption)?

How much lead time would be needed?

 

[Bigger]

I detest the word "mansplaining". First and foremost it is a corruption of language in the worst way. Second and almost as foremost is the notion that men are in general are so dumb that they need things explained in a condescending way. Imagine if the world had adopted the term womenslaining into the current lexicon.

It is condescending, inaccurate and wholly inappropriate in a society that is trying hard to create gender equality. Equality should be about eliminating the use of condescending language and not creating new words of this ilk. It is right up there with Man Flu!!

But that’s not what it means. Rather it refers to the all-too-common phenomena of men explaining things to women that either didn’t need explaining or using particularly condescending language or viewpoints to do so.

 

[Okinakashi]

Would it be more realistic to have one (Remote Island) or three (SA+WA+Tas) regions?

As I see it, Perth would be the perfect place. House all the players at Burswood, lock down the area to non-essential people and play games at Optus and the WACA.

Train at the Optus outside oval and/or Lathlain.

With no crowds, you can easily play 2 - 3 games per day per venue.

 

[Lach72]

I detest the word "mansplaining". First and foremost it is a corruption of language in the worst way. Second and almost as foremost is the notion that men are in general are so dumb that they need things explained in a condescending way. Imagine if the world had adopted the term womenslaining into the current lexicon.

It is condescending, inaccurate and wholly inappropriate in a society that is trying hard to create gender equality. Equality should be about eliminating the use of condescending language and not creating new words of this ilk. It is right up there with Man Flu!!

I'm not sure you've got the meaning of mansplaining correct...but go off I guess

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

Anyone want to speculate on having a "quarantined" AFL season?

Would it be more realistic to have one (Remote Island) or three (SA+WA+Tas) regions?

Is it realistic at all, and at what point?

Would all the players need to quarantine for 14 or x days if they were coming to say WA from Melbourne (assuming they got special excemption)?

How much lead time would be needed?

I like the idea of an island with the worst team each week getting kicked off. The team who wins by the biggest margin last week gets immunity for the next week.

 

[Nothing]

Thanks fellas. I'm getting there. Slowly improving I think. Feels different to normal flu. More of a drier cough that hits the gag reflex and gets you in whooping loops. Lot of fluid in the lungs too. I'm in England but my wife works in London, confirmed cases in her office etc.

This is the 10th day of symptoms. Asthma inhalers help as do vit C and iron supplements (it attacks the heme in your blood too). I can definitely see why older folks and those with dodgy hearts or lungs would be in trouble. Stay home and isolate yourselves.

Hey PJ, how you feeling?

 

[Purple Jesus]

Hey PJ, how you feeling?

Hey! fully recovered now, slight cough every now and then and a sore throat from the damage I did to it from said coughing but otherwise, sweet. My almost 1 year old picked up gastro on his last day of daycare too so that was an extra little bonus on top haha. 8kg down though, can't complain. Thanks for asking.