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Analysis Improvement from Where?

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So the masses believe we are in for a tough year. We will not improve as we have lost Waite and our list is over the hill. But is that necessarily true. I want to analyse our list of likely players for 2015 and compare their output in 2014 to what improvement we might expect in 2015

1. Lets start with our "big loss" Mr Waite. Last year he played only 16 games and kicked 29 goals. His obvious replacement is Liam Jones. Liam is capable of kicking a similar amount of goals having kicked 22 from 19 games in 2013. Liam is also more likely to play the whole season than Waite. Still on balance we will LOSE out on waite going, but I suspect that the difference wont be as drastic as is being feared

2 Walker. Only played 14 games last year. he was clearly hampered in some games. He should come back and be able to IMPROVE on 2014

3 Menzel. The sort of player that you expect to just keep improving. He will have the benefit of another preseason. Should IMPROVE

4 Murphy. Struggled early in 2014 with injuries and the leadership. Was tagged very heavily due to injuries to Judd and Thomas. Showed improvement in the second half- should continue to IMPROVE

5 Gibbs. Had a great year in 2014. One suspects that he has finally found his niche as an onballer. Expect MORE OF THE SAME

6 Judd. Injuries reduced his output and influence last year. But is back fitter than ever and is really enthusiastic. Should IMPROVE

7 Simpson. Had a very solid 2014. Hard to see him improve on that. expect MORE OF SAME

8 Buckley. Had a breakout year that was crueled by injury. Expect IMPROVE

9 Kreuzer. Played just 1 game in 2014. Should IMPROVE

10 Cripps. Hopefully will commence his inside mid role as an extractor . Expect IMPROVE

11 Yarran. Had a very good 2014 under MM. expect MORE OF SAME

12 Docherty. Showed us last year that he can become a key player. Injured. Expect IMPROVE

13 Rowe. The big surprise of 2014. I expect MORE OF SAME

14 Jaksch. Will play most games this year. A big upgrade on White . IMPROVE

15 Henderson. Was well down in form early on and was carrying an injury. Expect IMPROVE

16 Whiley. The replacement for Brock? Seems like IMPROVE

17 Bell. Had a mixed year. but with our midfield back he could IMPROVE

18 Everitt. was a great addition to the team last year. Had injuries -17 games. IMPROVE

19 Curnow. A key player that was injured only managing 15 games. IMPROVE

20 Thomas. looks set to resume midfield duties. His fitness seems much improved on 14. IMPROVE

21 Jamison. Had a solid year. Expect MORE OF SAME

22 Casboult. With another preseason, his fitness will improve further IMPROVE

23 Tuohy . Last year he took a step backward. appears back on track IMPROVE

24 White . Had a solid season, but had to take 3rd tall. With lesser duties could IMPROVE

25 Carrazzo. Still a great player. Played 14 games. Will IMPROVE

26 Sheehan. Showed that he has what it takes . Only played 4 games IMPROVE

27 Byrne. Many are predicting big things for him. IMPROVE
It's a good OP and possibly correct regarding most of the most players mentioned. The problem I see is that it only mentions individuals and I agree that individually (when injuries aren't killing us) we can put out just as many good players as most teams but our issues injury list aside is getting all of them to play as a team, to do more team things and getting the coaches to implement an effective modern day game plan. Until these things happen we won't get the best out of our playing list regardless of how many good individuals we have on the park.

Good discussion though, keep up the good posting therubbernub :thumbsu:
 
1. Andrew Walker. On the face of it we can't expect much improvement from 1AW. However if his injury and recovery is managed well, he may become a nice bonus in the second half of the season.
Grade for improvement: C

2. Tory Menzel. This kid can certainly play. He is going to continue to improve, particularly in consistency and output. The future as far as I can see it.
Grade for improvement: A

3. Marc Murphy. Can he get better? As a leader, I think, yes. As a player? Incrementally. Expect a consistent, high standard, job each week. If not, we're looking at the success of the side to slide.
Grade for improvement: C

4. Bruce Gibbs. One of the big improvers over the last two seasons. Same as Murph, consistency is expected. Less than this it's a negative.
Grade for improvement: C

5. Chris Judd. Slightly more interesting. As he had such an interrupted 2014, more games means more output. When he came back, he lifts the other players. I have read that his disposal is not elite. What is elite is his vision. He sees and make things happen on the field that most others are incapable of (I reckon, typing this, that this trait is what makes me most excited by Menz). He looks fit. Sounds interested in 2015. Wants to put back into football, now he's near the end.
Grade for improvement: B+

6. Kade Simpson. Read Murph and Gibbsy's descriptions above. There may be some improvement in that, without looking back, Simmo had a slow start to 2014. However, it's so slight I give him...
Grade for improvement: C

7. Dylan Buckley. Provided some excitement 2014. Got injured. Uninsured he makes our best 22 stronger and will show improvement. Needs more games for consistency and belief. Another positive.
1. Andrew Walker. On the face of it we can't expect much improvement from 1AW. However if his injury and recovery is managed well, he may become a nice bonus in the second half of the season.
Grade for improvement: B

8. Matthew Kreuzer. More games equals improvement. I was really excited by all reports of his pre-season. Miles in the tank won't go completely to waste but if he can get 15 games this season, it'll be a big up for the club.
Grade for improvement: B

9. Patrick Cripps. What I saw in the VFL last year (3 games) really impressed mr. What I saw in the Ones was potential. 2016 is what should be a breakout season, this year is still development getting games in and finding the pace of the seniors. Seriously exciting, but...
Grade for improvement: C+

10. Matthew Watson. I simply don't know. 2013, a series of games, looked good. 2014, monstered, looked bad. I think that he doesn't know where he's at as a footballer, forward, back? If he doesn't , how do I? He may become best 22. He may not. If he does, how much better does he make the side?
Grade for improvement: C+

11. Robbie Warnock. Good tap ruckman. Last year efforts around the ground were really ordinary. Watching him warm up, he's a reasonable kick for goal. In a game! Shheeeiiit. Don't see much upside for the team.
Grade for improvement: C (hope he proves me wrong)

12. Blaine Boekhurst. In comparison to least year's #12, we lose a hard at it. We needed outside run. A mature, albeit skinny, frame (hoping he's of the Lappin/Simmo mode) should provide more line breaking options.
Grade for improvement: B

13. Chris Yarran. Consistency, confidence has improved last year. Is capable of extraordinary things (running with the flight, spins around grab against ?WCE). I suspect we may see one more gear, more often from Yazz, very exciting.
Grade for improvement: B

14. Liam Jones. Lots of upside. Does he provide a replacement for Waite? Maybe not fully this year, but, yes going forwards.
Grade for improvement: C+

15. Sam Docherty. Showed a fair bit last year. More runners, less focus on th Doc, expecting some more improvement, perhaps a run through the middle.
Grade for improvement: C+

Ok, I'd like to finish this post, but the lawn is a jungle and if I'm to be allowed to as many games as I'd like this year Mrs Seen5 would like to see it trimmed and ship shape before the season proper.

I really enjoyed looking at the list in his way, thinking about each individual and their contribution, plus or minus to the sum of their parts in the team overall. Hopefully I'll get back to it later his arvo...
 
It's a good OP and possibly correct regarding most of the most players mentioned. The problem I see is that it only mentions individuals and I agree that individually (when injuries aren't killing us) we can put out just as many good players as most teams but our issues injury list aside is getting all of them to play as a team, to do more team things and getting the coaches to implement an effective modern day game plan. Until these things happen we won't get the best out of our playing list regardless of how many good individuals we have on the park.

Good discussion though, keep up the good posting therubbernub :thumbsu:
Totally agree sin .... and to be honest if MM cannot get them to play as a team ( and I am a MM believer) then we are going to be the next Melbourne or Richmond .... and that scares the hell out of me!
 

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It's a good OP and possibly correct regarding most of the most players mentioned. The problem I see is that it only mentions individuals and I agree that individually (when injuries aren't killing us) we can put out just as many good players as most teams but our issues injury list aside is getting all of them to play as a team, to do more team things and getting the coaches to implement an effective modern day game plan. Until these things happen we won't get the best out of our playing list regardless of how many good individuals we have on the park.

Good discussion though, keep up the good posting therubbernub :thumbsu:

Agreed.

Regardless of individual improvements, this doesn't mean the team improves as a whole. We need to lift in every single area of the game from tangibles (possessions, efficiency) to non-tangibles (pressure, 1%'s).

Call me a dreamer but I really, really think this team has strong potential and we're not as bad as "the worst list in the comp" as some suggest. We just need to find a way to get it all together at once and hit the ground running. If we're able to just get some consistency going then we'll trouble and probably beat some of the better sides this season.
 
1. Andrew Walker. On the face of it we can't expect much improvement from 1AW. However if his injury and recovery is managed well, he may become a nice bonus in the second half of the season.
Grade for improvement: C

2. Tory Menzel. This kid can certainly play. He is going to continue to improve, particularly in consistency and output. The future as far as I can see it.
Grade for improvement: A

3. Marc Murphy. Can he get better? As a leader, I think, yes. As a player? Incrementally. Expect a consistent, high standard, job each week. If not, we're looking at the success of the side to slide.
Grade for improvement: C

4. Bruce Gibbs. One of the big improvers over the last two seasons. Same as Murph, consistency is expected. Less than this it's a negative.
Grade for improvement: C

5. Chris Judd. Slightly more interesting. As he had such an interrupted 2014, more games means more output. When he came back, he lifts the other players. I have read that his disposal is not elite. What is elite is his vision. He sees and make things happen on the field that most others are incapable of (I reckon, typing this, that this trait is what makes me most excited by Menz). He looks fit. Sounds interested in 2015. Wants to put back into football, now he's near the end.
Grade for improvement: B+

6. Kade Simpson. Read Murph and Gibbsy's descriptions above. There may be some improvement in that, without looking back, Simmo had a slow start to 2014. However, it's so slight I give him...
Grade for improvement: C

7. Dylan Buckley. Provided some excitement 2014. Got injured. Uninsured he makes our best 22 stronger and will show improvement. Needs more games for consistency and belief. Another positive.
1. Andrew Walker. On the face of it we can't expect much improvement from 1AW. However if his injury and recovery is managed well, he may become a nice bonus in the second half of the season.
Grade for improvement: B

8. Matthew Kreuzer. More games equals improvement. I was really excited by all reports of his pre-season. Miles in the tank won't go completely to waste but if he can get 15 games this season, it'll be a big up for the club.
Grade for improvement: B

9. Patrick Cripps. What I saw in the VFL last year (3 games) really impressed mr. What I saw in the Ones was potential. 2016 is what should be a breakout season, this year is still development getting games in and finding the pace of the seniors. Seriously exciting, but...
Grade for improvement: C+

10. Matthew Watson. I simply don't know. 2013, a series of games, looked good. 2014, monstered, looked bad. I think that he doesn't know where he's at as a footballer, forward, back? If he doesn't , how do I? He may become best 22. He may not. If he does, how much better does he make the side?
Grade for improvement: C+

11. Robbie Warnock. Good tap ruckman. Last year efforts around the ground were really ordinary. Watching him warm up, he's a reasonable kick for goal. In a game! Shheeeiiit. Don't see much upside for the team.
Grade for improvement: C (hope he proves me wrong)

12. Blaine Boekhurst. In comparison to least year's #12, we lose a hard at it. We needed outside run. A mature, albeit skinny, frame (hoping he's of the Lappin/Simmo mode) should provide more line breaking options.
Grade for improvement: B

13. Chris Yarran. Consistency, confidence has improved last year. Is capable of extraordinary things (running with the flight, spins around grab against ?WCE). I suspect we may see one more gear, more often from Yazz, very exciting.
Grade for improvement: B

14. Liam Jones. Lots of upside. Does he provide a replacement for Waite? Maybe not fully this year, but, yes going forwards.
Grade for improvement: C+

15. Sam Docherty. Showed a fair bit last year. More runners, less focus on th Doc, expecting some more improvement, perhaps a run through the middle.
Grade for improvement: C+

Ok, I'd like to finish this post, but the lawn is a jungle and if I'm to be allowed to as many games as I'd like this year Mrs Seen5 would like to see it trimmed and ship shape before the season proper.

I really enjoyed looking at the list in his way, thinking about each individual and their contribution, plus or minus to the sum of their parts in the team overall. Hopefully I'll get back to it later his arvo...

Nice post.

Bit concerning that out of all the players you mentioned, discounting Menzel who is obvious, you think that the most scope for improvement comes from a 31 year old who was going to retire at the end of last season. :eek::eek:
 
Agree 100 %, Nicky G should be starting 18 material every week.
I do understand Mick's conservative/softly, softly approach to weaning the kids into the system (which is much more effectively then simply throwing kids to the wolves with no senior leaders to mentor them like Melbourne and St Kilda has in recent years) but yes, Nick has earned his stripes now, i don't want him to be used as a sub anymore, unless for rotation/team balance purposes.

Pretty sure it's been mentioned by the coaching staff more than once that NG has some targets he needs to meet in his running and kicking goals etc.

Harks probably knows more, but they want him to play a particular way (spread more?) and he's not quite doing it.
......and if you look at the type of footballer he is, he strikes me as the classic lower league 30-40 possession getter-distributor. But he's not at the fall of the ball in the top league, he's out from pack so he has to be able to outrun, out kick and out goal the opposition.

Brock was trying to do it but he was just a bit slow covering the ground and getting the ball to boot sometimes. This is where NG might find a home, but it's a toss of the coin.

He's the sort of guy who wins Sandover medals these days.
 
Nice post.

Bit concerning that out of all the players you mentioned, discounting Menzel who is obvious, you think that the most scope for improvement comes from a 31 year old who was going to retire at the end of last season. :eek::eek:

that 31yo is Chris Judd, one of the best ever...
 
Been waiting for years .... I think the signs are there .... just want us back.
Whoever would have thought the dark years would last this long. :(
Thanks Blueballs - I don't post often, I'll try and lift my game for you...
 
A quality player at his best. We know what he is capable of. Showed glimpses, and then some last year. Positive extrovert, should see more on-field this season after a full pre-season.
Grade for improvement: B+

40. Michael Jamison.
Same old, same old. Getting settled down back with Jamo, Rowe and maybe Jaksch as third tall. We know what to expect and will see it.
Grade for improvement: C+

41. Levi Casboult.
Got settled and some confidence in being in the Ones. This could easily be a breakout year for the big unit.
Grade for improvement: B+

42. Zach Tuohy.
Great 2013, off 2014. Pre-season and NAB look ok till now, so 2015 should see some improvement.
Grade for improvement: B+

43. Simon White.
Really settled into the Ones. Swingman who showed effect at both ends and added some physical presence. Wont improve greatly on 2014. Hopefully maintains and adds a little polish to disposal and decision making.
Grade for improvement: C+

44. Andrew Carrazzo.
Has Father time caught up with Carrots? I hope not. He's one of the few that, when in the guts, really lifts those around him and allows the cream easy access to the top. If that's the case, with a few more games this year we will improve.
Grade for improvement: B-

46. David Ellard.
I ike Davey, I really do. He tries and tries and tries. He can kick a goal. Earlky 2014 he was good. But can we rely on him to lift the side 2015. I can't see it.
Grade for improvement: C_

47. Fraser Russell.
Speculative rookie. Little if any impact 2015
Grade for improvement: Not assessed.

So overall all players are going to improve somewhat. We will be a better side in 2015. Where do we finish? (Apologies to those above me) Injuries will dictate; but a move up the ladder can be expected.

How far? Thanks for asking, how many games will our best 22 play? if it's most, then finals await. If not anywhere 9-14.

Let's hope it's the former. Roll on season proper. Go Blues!
 
that 31yo is Chris Judd, one of the best ever...

Oh I agree, I wouldn't put it past the great man to pull out one more top quality season. However we are in dire need for some of these youngsters to really step up and show they are bona fide AFL players.
 

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Graham is a younger version of McLean - too small, too slow not inside enough and not fast enough to be first or second receiver - has a brain clearly but doubt he has the athletic ability to be a genuine A grader. Other blokes will go past him this year - Cripps and Boekhurst already have.

Best 22 will match it with most - but genuine lack of class and experience up front - forward structure will be mucked around with I reckon - only certainties are Menzel and Henderson - a fit Thomas might make a huge difference providing defensive pressure as well as two way running capacity. Casboult has improved his tank and leg speed significantly.
 
4 Murphy. Struggled early in 2014 with injuries and the leadership. Was tagged very heavily due to injuries to Judd and Thomas. Showed improvement in the second half- should continue to IMPROVE (don't know about that one, he's a ripper player but he's not going to become Superman this season)

6 Judd. Injuries reduced his output and influence last year. But is back fitter than ever and is really enthusiastic. Should IMPROVE (great player over many years but his best is behind him now)

9 Kreuzer. Played just 1 game in 2014. Should IMPROVE (has to regularly get on the park first !!)

17 Bell. Had a mixed year. but with our midfield back he could IMPROVE (not sure he has another level to go to)

18 Everitt. was a great addition to the team last year. Had injuries -17 games. IMPROVE (wysiwyg !!)

19 Curnow. A key player that was injured only managing 15 games. IMPROVE (wysiwyg !!)

20 Thomas. looks set to resume midfield duties. His fitness seems much improved on 14. IMPROVE (I don't think he is going to magically become a better player, a fully fit one would do)

22 Casboult. With another preseason, his fitness will improve further IMPROVE (just improve his goalkicking please)

23 Tuohy . Last year he took a step backward. appears back on track IMPROVE (he's already reached his zenith)

24 White . Had a solid season, but had to take 3rd tall. With lesser duties could IMPROVE (wysiwyg !!)

25 Carrazzo. Still a great player. Played 14 games. Will IMPROVE (no chance !!)
 
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Graham is a younger version of McLean - too small, too slow not inside enough and not fast enough to be first or second receiver - has a brain clearly but doubt he has the athletic ability to be a genuine A grader. Other blokes will go past him this year - Cripps and Boekhurst already have.

Best 22 will match it with most - but genuine lack of class and experience up front - forward structure will be mucked around with I reckon - only certainties are Menzel and Henderson - a fit Thomas might make a huge difference providing defensive pressure as well as two way running capacity. Casboult has improved his tank and leg speed significantly.

You can't really put Graham and Boekhorst in the same discussion.
Graham has similar concerns about him that Sam Mitchell did who is shorter and maybe even slower than Graham.....i can't be sure about slower though.

Graham has already been talked up as being one of the standouts of the off season but fairly won't be accepted until he has really made it.

I don't know whether he'll make it as without opportunity some can die a slow death.
I think we're again judging him on one poor game the other day. He wasn't alone.
I
 
You can't really put Graham and Boekhorst in the same discussion.
Graham has similar concerns about him that Sam Mitchell did who is shorter and maybe even slower than Graham.....i can't be sure about slower though.

Graham has already been talked up as being one of the standouts of the off season but fairly won't be accepted until he has really made it.

I don't know whether he'll make it as without opportunity some can die a slow death.
I think we're again judging him on one poor game the other day. He wasn't alone.
I

Most players with Graham's attributes take a few seasons to cement themselves.

Nobody in our side played well enough against WC imho except for Yarran and Tuohy. Nobody managing to get over 20 possessions is cringe worthy when our lack of ball winning ability is already well known.
 

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Most players with Graham's attributes take a few seasons to cement themselves.

Nobody in our side played well enough against WC imho except for Yarran and Tuohy. Nobody managing to get over 20 possessions is cringe worthy when our lack of ball winning ability is already well known.

Graham can find the ball alright but as with many players that may have a question mark around them (speed being Graham's) only the opportunity of playing regularly will prove him to be an asset for us.
Should Whiley and of course Cripps make good early on, things may become decidedly more difficult for Graham.
 
4 Murphy. Struggled early in 2014 with injuries and the leadership. Was tagged very heavily due to injuries to Judd and Thomas. Showed improvement in the second half- should continue to IMPROVE (don't know about that one, he's a ripper player but he's not going to become Superman this season)

6 Judd. Injuries reduced his output and influence last year. But is back fitter than ever and is really enthusiastic. Should IMPROVE (great player over many years but his best is behind him now)

9 Kreuzer. Played just 1 game in 2014. Should IMPROVE (has to regularly get on the park first !!)

17 Bell. Had a mixed year. but with our midfield back he could IMPROVE (not sure he has another level to go to)

18 Everitt. was a great addition to the team last year. Had injuries -17 games. IMPROVE (wysiwyg !!)

19 Curnow. A key player that was injured only managing 15 games. IMPROVE (wysiwyg !!)

20 Thomas. looks set to resume midfield duties. His fitness seems much improved on 14. IMPROVE (I don't think he is going to magically become a better player, a fully fit one would do)

22 Casboult. With another preseason, his fitness will improve further IMPROVE (just improve his goalkicking please)

23 Tuohy . Last year he took a step backward. appears back on track IMPROVE (he's already reached his zenith)

24 White . Had a solid season, but had to take 3rd tall. With lesser duties could IMPROVE (wysiwyg !!)

25 Carrazzo. Still a great player. Played 14 games. Will IMPROVE (no chance !!)

My point seems a little lost. i am not saying that a player will necessarily improve as a player 2014>2015. What I am saying certainly in regards to the mature players that were injured last year, that their impact on the season will IMPROVE .

eg1 Judds impact in 2014 was only in 12 games. In those 12 games I am sure that his limited preseason and then subsequent further injuries resulted in his form for some of those games being below his best for the year, at least until he regained his match fitness and rythym. Therefore combining these factors he will have a significantly higher impact on the team this year- 1. He will hit round 1 flying after a full preseason and no injuries. 2. He will hopefully have 22 games to have an impact versus his only 12 games in 2014.

eg2 Murphys impact early on was IMO adversely impacted by the burden of captaincy and the fact that without other top level midfielders to share the oppositions attention- ( Judd- injured, Carazzo-injured, Thomas-injury recovery, Gibbs- earlier was not 100% embracing midfield duties) was easily tagged out of the game. In the latter half of the season particularly after Judd returned, he grew into the captaincy role and started performing again. I hope/expect that he will continue where he left off last season with the captaincy less of a burden, and surrounded from round 1 by other leaders in the midfield that will give him some respite. I do not expect that his best will be any better in 2015, just that he will be able to show it for most of the season, whereas in 2014 he did not. In short his overall impact on the team will improve on 2014

eg3 Thomas. Much like Murphy was improving as the season went on. For Thomas it was a matter of that for every game played without the feared recurrence of the ankle, he was growing in confidence and also match fitness that was clearly down on his best. Again he will hit the ground running and fully fit in round 1 and will hopefully be able to build on his slowly returning form in the latter part of 2014. Therefore I expect that he will be a better version of himself in 2015 v 2014.

eg 4 Players mentioned such as Everitt, Curnow, Tuohy, White you seem to be writing off as having reached their potential . I am not sure how you can say this. Everitt played a new role with us and performed admirably, Curnow was injured for most of the year, Tuohy had off field issues, and White is still developing. Also these players were forced into higher leadership roles due to our injuries something that they may need more time to truly embrace
 
My point seems a little lost. i am not saying that a player will necessarily improve as a player 2014>2015. What I am saying certainly in regards to the mature players that were injured last year, that their impact on the season will IMPROVE .

This part I can agree with.
 
eg 4 Players mentioned such as Everitt, Curnow, Tuohy, White you seem to be writing off as having reached their potential . I am not sure how you can say this. Everitt played a new role with us and performed admirably, Curnow was injured for most of the year, Tuohy had off field issues, and White is still developing. Also these players were forced into higher leadership roles due to our injuries something that they may need more time to truly embrace
Rubbynub, agreed with the gist of your post except for Curnow and Tuohy.

As the Shiek said, I think Curnow has plateaued and wysiwyg. Great runner, endurance and negating player but not that great offensively. Moving forward, I think we need defensive/tagging players who are not just one dimensional and can hurt the opposition going the other way.

I'm undecided with Tuohy - one of my favourites a couple of years ago, his last season was disappointing. I've heard the possible reasons/excuses of sleepless nights, first child etc.. but I'm not convinced. Given the sacrifices, determination and obstacles the Irish players had to go through to play AFL I would have thought dealing with sleepless was something that Tuohy could deal with - he's got a few team mates like Carrots and Judd he could ask for advice.:)

Agree with your assessment of Everitt and White - I think there's a lot of upside MM can extract out of these guys.
 

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