Prediction Improvement in 2018

[Willo_]

I don't think we had a bad run with injuries at all this year. Fourteen absolutely core players (i.e. pretty much selected when fit) - Selwood, Dangerfield, Hawkins, Duncan, Taylor, Lonergan, Mackie, Motlop, Henderson, Smith, Guthrie, Menegola, Tuohy, and Blicavs - all played 20 or more games in 2017. Three more - Menzel, Bews, and Kolodjashnij - played 19, 19, and 18. That doesn't look like a bad injury run to me.

We had an awful run with the sheer volume of injuries we had, particuarly later in the year..and it challenged our depth at time

But we were fortunate that the bulk of our core played all year

 

[thejester]

I think the finals series - and not just Geelong games - showed there's considerable scope for improvement in our structures and the intensity we play with, and that they could make a huge difference. Also vaguely optimistic that Ablett will make a significant difference to our creativity inside forward 50, and that while Lonergan and Mackie are clearly significant outs it might allow a more balanced side (smaller backline, Taylor back, more nimble forward line).

 

[Willo_]

I think the finals series - and not just Geelong games - showed there's considerable scope for improvement in our structures and the intensity we play with, and that they could make a huge difference. Also vaguely optimistic that Ablett will make a significant difference to our creativity inside forward 50, and that while Lonergan and Mackie are clearly significant outs it might allow a more balanced side (smaller backline, Taylor back, more nimble forward line).

I think it was no coincidence we looked as good as we did and moved the ball out of defence well against the swans in that final.... when Doms was a late out

 

[Landgraft]

Thanks for that, fully understand your confusion over my lack of clarity.
I believe our squad may improve if certain ones follow their development curve.
But our spine looks vulnerable to me.

I don't think our spine will be that much worse off when compared to this season. The backline will potentially even function better and the forward line will continue to be Hawk & a square peg in a round hole. If that square peg sgould happen to be called Dangerfield then we might even be better off.

Imo the lesson to take from Richmond isn't that small pressure forwards = victory, but that you need to structure up in a way that maximises your strengths. It'll be interesting to see if/how Scott approaches this, as personally I see no reason we shouldn't be prepared to have another crack next season.

 

[DanA]

I know Richmond are the flavour of the month but I still want us to take a leaf out of Hawthorn's book. Add some outside players, some left footers that kick well and more players that provide forward pressure. It'd be nice to have a 2nd key forward but we've seen other teams structure up around not having one. Don't see why we can't do the same.

It takes time to develop KPF's, KPD's, rucks and inside mids but you can generally get a decent output out of outside mids, small forward and HBF's in their first year. Hopefully, we can add one or two that can make a decent impact.

 

[Matthew Jelley]

There is plenty of room for improvement, especially if you look at players who missed a lot of games. Try this

Out - Lonergan, Mackie, Motlop, Lang
In - Ablett, McCarthy, Gregson, Cockatoo,

Also Stewart and Thurlow who also missed a fair chunk can more than cover Mackies abscence. Thurlow should especially be a better player next season with some continuity.

Taylor can account for Lonergan no issue as proved when taking out Buddy.

A more pacy defence, more midfield depth and a more dynamic and impactful forward line for 2018.

Look forward to a draft pick or 2 coming straight in potentially as well

 

[Cool Cat]

A lot of the depth talk could also depend on 22/24 being good enough to get some games (ala Parfitt). Hopefully 24 can be another SJ (I'd take a Charlie Gardiner type with 22 if it meant we had another SJ type )

I know it sounds silly but a gardiner type might even be handy playing off half forward in this team. We haven’t got anywhere near the depth that we had back then and at least he got on the lead and presented a target up towards the wings.

 

[Cool Cat]

If we get a good run with injury we will improve.

A freed up, more natural game plan would help.....and make the games more fun to watch. Too dour and predictable at the moment.

Yep, that pretty much sums it up.

 

[Cool Cat]

Depth is the single most overrated thing in this league. And we don't even lack for it that badly.

Couldn’t (respectfully) disagree more. I think it is our major flaw - list wise, anyway (game plan is another thing).

 

[Cool Cat]

I don't think we had a bad run with injuries at all this year. Fourteen absolutely core players (i.e. pretty much selected when fit) - Selwood, Dangerfield, Hawkins, Duncan, Taylor, Lonergan, Mackie, Motlop, Henderson, Smith, Guthrie, Menegola, Tuohy, and Blicavs - all played 20 or more games in 2017. Three more - Menzel, Bews, and Kolodjashnij - played 19, 19, and 18. That doesn't look like a bad injury run to me.

Yes it was more that we had a lot of fringe/depth players injured, and that exposed us especially late in the year when Duncan, danger etc got silly suspensions. We still went ok when they were out, but looked threadbare to my eyes. As it turned out, we never really looked like a contender from that point onwards.
I think our depth is probably our major Achilles heel, that and over-possession/slow ball movement which got exposed in the finals (again).

 

[Landgraft]

Couldn’t (respectfully) disagree more. I think it is our major flaw - list wise, anyway (game plan is another thing).

How many depth players would you want on your list? And bear in mind that the better they are the weaker your 22 has to become with fewer resources to hold the core group together.

I would say that our current depth players would be Parsons, Zuthrie, Ruggles, Thurlow, Cunico, Horlo, Buzza. Then we have the tier of developing kids below them that would be a huge unknown quantity and probable failure at AFL level.

Heck, with Ablett in and the possibility of McCarthy and Gregson back we might see guys like Menegola and Parfitt struggling to hold their spots and become depth.

 

[you pick one]

The way Geelong structure the forward line and ball movement going inside 50 will make or break us again,I still think we're a Mooney/Pods type 2nd tall up there short of a flag,we will benefit enormously if we get a full season from Cocky Linc and Gregson,there's 90 goals right there,Funny enough the bloke they tried moving on Menzel will be important again with 40 odd.The mids with the inclusion of Gaz will more than do their bit, the back line will remain sound with Taylor going back.The ruck is still a bit week,and I'll be interested to see what they do with Blits this year.
The boys we blooded last year will hopefully kick on,Menagola will continue to improve C.Guthrie hopefully has a more consistent year.
Big year coming up for Scotty too he can't just sit on his hands,if we get to rd 20 and he's still trying to sort out the best forward structure again I'll f--king melt.
Top 4 again and see how we go.

 

[Cool Cat]

How many depth players would you want on your list? And bear in mind that the better they are the weaker your 22 has to become with fewer resources to hold the core group together.

I would say that our current depth players would be Parsons, Zuthrie, Ruggles, Thurlow, Cunico, Horlo, Buzza. Then we have the tier of developing kids below them that would be a huge unknown quantity and probable failure at AFL level.

Heck, with Ablett in and the possibility of McCarthy and Gregson back we might see guys like Menegola and Parfitt struggling to hold their spots and become depth.

And so they should. I think it is the overall quality of our list from about player 15 onwards that troubles me. I don’t have any real problems with any of the players mentioned above, I just think that the quality of our list is overly concentrated in the top end, and falls away badly thereafter. I see this as a consequence of taking so many late picks over the last few years, With these guys consequently forming a larger part of our bottom end.

There is a saying that your last six players picked are more important than your top six. I’m not sure that I completely agree with that, but there is certainly some truth to it. Where are our blue chip up and comers? Parfitt and cocky, perhaps thurlow.... I’m not having a crack at Guthrie and parsons etc by the way, but thank * they have done as well as they have - I do question a strategy where we are so dependent upon rookies to hold the fort, though.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Negatives:
Well we haven't done anything with the coaches yet.
No ruck coach, no goal kicking coach, Lappin still "development " coach.
Hard to see much improvement coming from the coaches box.
Lost 2 of our outside players in Motlop & Lang.
I guess we can expect the same results at the G with a mainly one paced midfield of average kicks.
Taylor or Henderson at FB could go either way. Maybe improve, maybe opposite. After last years finals am a bit worried.
Positives:
Ablett. Still has it IMO
Will Cockatoo stay fit. If so will improve the side IMO
Will we play a shorter backline with Lonners gone? If so that will definitely improve the side.
Unfortunately for me the negatives are a bit stronger than the positives so I can't actually see us improving.

 

[Spearman]

Preseason is going to be hugely important this year. First, coaching staff must come up with a plan and structure that compliments the list, and be sellable to the playing group. Second, they need to drill the group on it and importantly, nullify the inclinations to watch PFD and GAJ do all the playing. That is what must be stamped out, they cannot rely on them if they want to win the cup.
Next season won't feature new faces, GAJ nonwithstanding, so chemistry should improve. If we get some wins early, the players will buy in more deeply, their confidence will rise and that will be followed by their consistency. After that, anything is possible. We need to ensure that the playing group come out hard, clean and firing every game.

 

[David the Cat]

IF we are talking improvement...I'd like to nominate Thurlow.

Expecting a solid year from him in 2018.

 

[ijaxcat]

Negatives:
Well we haven't done anything with the coaches yet.
No ruck coach, no goal kicking coach, Lappin still "development " coach.
Hard to see much improvement coming from the coaches box.
Lost 2 of our outside players in Motlop & Lang.
I guess we can expect the same results at the G with a mainly one paced midfield of average kicks.
Taylor or Henderson at FB could go either way. Maybe improve, maybe opposite. After last years finals am a bit worried.
Positives:
Ablett. Still has it IMO
Will Cockatoo stay fit. If so will improve the side IMO
Will we play a shorter backline with Lonners gone? If so that will definitely improve the side.
Unfortunately for me the negatives are a bit stronger than the positives so I can't actually see us improving.

How do you deliberately play a smaller backline?
The backline is selected by matchups with the opposition forward line.

 

[Landgraft]

And so they should. I think it is the overall quality of our list from about player 15 onwards that troubles me. I don’t have any real problems with any of the players mentioned above, I just think that the quality of our list is overly concentrated in the top end, and falls away badly thereafter. I see this as a consequence of taking so many late picks over the last few years, With these guys consequently forming a larger part of our bottom end.

There is a saying that your last six players picked are more important than your top six. I’m not sure that I completely agree with that, but there is certainly some truth to it. Where are our blue chip up and comers? Parfitt and cocky, perhaps thurlow.... I’m not having a crack at Guthrie and parsons etc by the way, but thank **** they have done as well as they have - I do question a strategy where we are so dependent upon rookies to hold the fort, though.

I guess to a large extent we're dealing with a philosophical disagreement but I would regard heavy investment in the last 6 picked as a significant waste.

If you look at even the 2007 list, probably the best list any club has had in a long time, there are still about a dozen guys on it that weren't up to the level. And thats without counting guys like Varcoe, West, Byrnes, Blake that were ultimately underwhelming but bonafide AFL players and not that far removed from the rough level of guys like Stanley, Murdoch and Horlo.

Personally I think it's the top 6 that has the most influence on a game. Remove Dusty and Rance and the Tigers are struggling to make the eight, no matter how even a spread of contributors they can get from the rest of their 22.

 

[David the Cat]

Varcoe underwhelming....if ever there was a guy under appreciated, it would be Varcoe.

 

[ATSAM]

We need to play like we did in 2007 round 6. Found a copy of that game amongst my stuff and was wowed by how good we were. Sure we had great players but they became great because we played as a team and because our skills were exquisite. Kicks that landed on chests, long low kicks that were marked, long low handballs that hit targets, a forward line that was structured but allowed everyone to have a go. We weren't fast necessarily but moved the ball on at all costs.
And enjoyment at what was happening, even awry smile from Nathan after kicking goal- what a talent he was , so laconic but smart with the ball- and Gary doing what he did best and Bartel who the commentators were just discovering and Stevie J just back from that sham suspension.
Kicked 30 goals with Chappy and Egan off by 1/2 time.
And by the way Blake was very good.
In 2018 we need to become skilled and smart and play as a team
However watching that game was watching the best of Aussie Rules, free flowing ,running, moving the ball down the ground and goals . What we get now with zoning and rule changes eg deliberate out of bounds- don't remember any at all let alone deliberate in the 2007 game- has changed and to my mind is on the way to destroying what is the best of our game.

 

[Landgraft]

Varcoe underwhelming....if ever there was a guy under appreciated, it would be Varcoe.

Just in terms of output v expectation. He definitely played some good football for us but imo didn't reach the ceiling I'd hoped for.

 

[Ricketz]

I don't think we had a bad run with injuries at all this year. Fourteen absolutely core players (i.e. pretty much selected when fit) - Selwood, Dangerfield, Hawkins, Duncan, Taylor, Lonergan, Mackie, Motlop, Henderson, Smith, Guthrie, Menegola, Tuohy, and Blicavs - all played 20 or more games in 2017. Three more - Menzel, Bews, and Kolodjashnij - played 19, 19, and 18. That doesn't look like a bad injury run to me.

In a game where small pressure forwards are king right now, I just can't see how you can say this. Parfitt, Cocky, Gregson, McCarthy all injured for some or all of the season. We struggled all year to full those roles - Simpson and Parsons would never have got a game without so many injuries to our preferred small forwards.

 

[Ricketz]

How do you deliberately play a smaller backline?
The backline is selected by matchups with the opposition forward line.

Not completely. We have been running a tall backline regardless of matchups so they can push up and intercept mark on the oppo rebound from our forward fifty. It relies on pressure forwards and that weak spot was exploited a number of times this year when we applied zero pressure on rebounds. It's one of the valid criticisms of our game plan this year. Next year we will have a smaller more mobile backline by necessity, and I think that suits the current state of the game a lot better.

 

[Ricketz]

I know Richmond are the flavour of the month but I still want us to take a leaf out of Hawthorn's book. Add some outside players, some left footers that kick well and more players that provide forward pressure. It'd be nice to have a 2nd key forward but we've seen other teams structure up around not having one. Don't see why we can't do the same.

It takes time to develop KPF's, KPD's, rucks and inside mids but you can generally get a decent output out of outside mids, small forward and HBF's in their first year. Hopefully, we can add one or two that can make a decent impact.

Yep, you can't pressure clean kicks and marks.

 

[Cronin]

Not completely. We have been running a tall backline regardless of matchups so they can push up and intercept mark on the oppo rebound from our forward fifty. It relies on pressure forwards and that weak spot was exploited a number of times this year when we applied zero pressure on rebounds. It's one of the valid criticisms of our game plan this year. Next year we will have a smaller more mobile backline by necessity, and I think that suits the current state of the game a lot better.

Pressure forwards but also the midfield pushing up to apply pressure as well, it's what Richmond did so well whereas we tend to fall back into defensive positions rather than attack the ball carrier.