Analysis Carlton list history & rebuilding comparisons

[Magruder]

I take it as graft vs create.

makes sense

 

[JustaBattler]

crapola deluxo

catch phrase of Carlton generation unfortunately

ya gotta larf...otherwise ...ummm...

 

[Magruder]

ya gotta larf...otherwise ...ummm...

agreed but snaps to you for the phrase...

 

[Big Sim is Back]

I assume Hooker to Freo due to him being from Perth, i have no insider knowledge so it is a wait and see. On McCarthy, i can see why GWS played hardball but in hindsight (which is wonderful) they bombed, they or i didn't see this coming, they could have banked a future first round or even 2 or picked up a player, now they have nothing, a player who has moved home interstate. They would be crazy not to trade him again, don't forget they are still paying him to sit at home and do nothing. Whilst his value has diminished greatly hence the reason GWS want him back playing again, he still is a good player.
Based on his actions any club outside of WA would be crazy to pick him up and a big deal.

The Hawks have been sniffing around Hooker and they usually get their man. Freo's window looks like its closing/closed now but Hawthorn will be thereabouts for a while yet if they recruit well.

McCarthy is an interesting one. He is contracted for 2017 as well and has honestly or otherwise played the mental health card to get out of Sydney on full pay. Next year if he is sound enough mentally to play for Freo then you would think the Giants would want a trade for him that has not been devalued by the events of this year. Word is that GWS are pretty dirty on Freo for getting in his ear in the first place and the idea that Freo may now get him for SFA must be pretty galling. If GWS don't get a first rounder for him I hope they keep him to his contract on principle otherwise anyone drafted from interstate would have the option of walking out on the team that drafted them.

 

[Magruder]

The Hawks have been sniffing around Hooker and they usually get their man. Freo's window looks like its closing/closed now but Hawthorn will be thereabouts for a while yet if they recruit well.

McCarthy is an interesting one. He is contracted for 2017 as well and has honestly or otherwise played the mental health card to get out of Sydney on full pay. Next year if he is sound enough mentally to play for Freo then you would think the Giants would want a trade for him that has not been devalued by the events of this year. Word is that GWS are pretty dirty on Freo for getting in his ear in the first place and the idea that Freo may now get him for SFA must be pretty galling. If GWS don't get a first rounder for him I hope they keep him to his contract on principle otherwise anyone drafted from interstate would have the option of walking out on the team that drafted them.

that's pretty tiresome

 

[Big Sim is Back]

that's pretty tiresome

Why?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Excellent work by ODN here, I'll have a full read of the original posts at some point when I have free time, and i'll construct my own - shopping list for the next few seasons on a full post.

But this is it, I feel it, this is the squad that is going to take us back into the top 4, we just have to be bold, brave and clinical.

 

[Magruder]

Why?

because it's a legitimate health issue that receives undue scepticism

we traded Tom Bell to Brisbane so he could be closer to his critically ill father, (cancer I think.); as a group would we have been so understanding if it was to support his old man through repeated depressive episodes?

 

[Big Sim is Back]

because it's a legitimate health issue that receives undue scepticism

we traded Tom Bell to Brisbane so he could be closer to his critically ill father, (cancer I think.); as a group would we have been so understanding if it was to support his old man through repeated depressive episodes?

I guess I am sceptical by nature, about everything pretty much. Your point is good and taken.

 

[Magruder]

I guess I am sceptical by nature, about everything pretty much. Your point is good and taken.

all good.

 

[Windhover]

Windhover - Smashing silence on Gibbs - but that is another story....

No, I do mention him. People expect Gibbs to be a star because he is a No. 1 pick. They will always be disappointed because Gibbs is just a very competent 200 plus game player.

I'm not going to argue the definition of what and AFL footballer is- we don't want AFL footballers we want Top4 side contending footballers- currently we have 2 maybe 4...- probably the lowest number of genuine guns in the league by a fair margin - therefore without a doubt - our recruiting has been crapola deluxo -self evident.

Oh ffs. Do you think Henderson, Betts, Jacobs, Waite, Kennedy, Laidler aren't top 4 contending side footballers? If they are then guess what, we recruited them. You would have it we let go more than we retained. I would have it your assessment of 2 to 4 "Top 4 side contending footballers" is rubbish.

read the link above - you will enjoy the simple logic of it - modern applied portfoli theory in practice - Hawhorn have been 'arbitraging' other Club's stupidity for over a decade.

I think the article is internally inconsistent. It claims that Hawthorn were clever by hoarding low draft picks in a cluster of years between
2000 and 2005. It claims this was clever because it meant that Hawthorn would have their draft picks peak together when aged 23 to 25. To quote:
[Hawthorn did something even cleverer – they clustered their trading for draft picks to allow their young players to mature at the same time. AFL footballers peak and enjoy their best years, statistically, between 23 and 25.]

Ok let's test the theory. Hawks won their first flag in 2008 when those draft picks (assuming 18 at time of draft) would have been 21 to 26. Tick to the theory.

Hawks then don't make it to a grand final until 2012, which they lost. Those draft picks then aged 25 to 30. Half-tick to the theory.
Hawks then win the flag 2013-15 when those draft picks are aged 26 to 33. Clusterf@@k for the cluster theory.

The article is one of those "clever" pieces that pretends to see a theory retrospectively and then back fits the theory in ignorance of the facts.

The Hawks were lucky to win in 2008 - Geelong were the better team but bad kicking is bad football and sport is unpredictable.

Hawthorn were NOT lucky to win in 2013-15. They did so for a number of reasons. First, it is clear that Clarkson has developed a game plan that enables an old, slow team to be predictable to itself irrespective of who is playing and who is injured.

Secondly, List Management has carefully and prospectively identified structural deficiencies in the playing group and gone out year in year out to recruit players that could protect the game plan from exploitation. Thus the recruitment of Lake and now Frawley. Thus the recruitment of Gibson and Gunston and Hale and McEvoy. In drafts, when the Hawks have not had top draft picks, they have gone for players with speed and endurance and good disposal - like Smith and Hill and Hartung.

Thirdly, dear old lady luck has been very kind. Mitchell, Hodge, Gibson and Burgoyne were the top 4 possession winners for the Hawks in last year's GF. The youngest of those 4 is Hodge, aged 31. All 4 might just be the top 4 possession winners in this year's GF the way they are going. Judd, similarly aged, is well-retired.

Conclusion
There are many ways to gather a list that can win a flag. You can do it by the draft, you can do it by trading. Whatever way you are forming the list what is of vital importance is that of every player recruited the following question is asked:

"How is the player going to be part of our game plan when we are in a position to win a flag?"

The Hawks under Clarkson have known exactly the sort of player they wanted/needed to have a structurally complete list and have gone out of their way if necessary to get that player. They recruited Spangher ffs because they knew they were short on KPD. Lo and behold, in 2014 Spangher is required for GF day to help control Buddy, Goodes and Tippett. Never much of a footballer, (surely not one of your exalted "Top 4 side contending footballers"), Spangher knew what his role in the team was, carried it out, and is an entirely worthy Premiership player.

 

[JustaBattler]

No, I do mention him. People expect Gibbs to be a star because he is a No. 1 pick. They will always be disappointed because Gibbs is just a very competent 200 plus game player.

Oh contrare the club thinks he is an indispensable star and have treated him accordingly - I don't rate him as being useful to Carlton at all. In fact he is the stand out trade idea on the list right now. Useless to winning contested football or playing an inside role and better suited to playing HBF - where we have an abundance of younger and better longer term players available to develop and invest in.

Oh ffs. Do you think Henderson, Betts, Jacobs, Waite, Kennedy, Laidler aren't top 4 contending side footballers? If they are then guess what, we recruited them. You would have it we let go more than we retained. I would have it your assessment of 2 to 4 "Top 4 side contending footballers" is rubbish.

None of teh players you mention above are at Carlton anymore or haven't you noticed?

I think the article is internally inconsistent. It claims that Hawthorn were clever by hoarding low draft picks in a cluster of years between
2000 and 2005. It claims this was clever because it meant that Hawthorn would have their draft picks peak together when aged 23 to 25. To quote:
[Hawthorn did something even cleverer – they clustered their trading for draft picks to allow their young players to mature at the same time. AFL footballers peak and enjoy their best years, statistically, between 23 and 25.]

Ok let's test the theory. Hawks won their first flag in 2008 when those draft picks (assuming 18 at time of draft) would have been 21 to 26. Tick to the theory.

Hawks then don't make it to a grand final until 2012, which they lost. Those draft picks then aged 25 to 30. Half-tick to the theory.
Hawks then win the flag 2013-15 when those draft picks are aged 26 to 33. Clusterf@@k for the cluster theory.

The article is one of those "clever" pieces that pretends to see a theory retrospectively and then back fits the theory in ignorance of the facts.

The Hawks were lucky to win in 2008 - Geelong were the better team but bad kicking is bad football and sport is unpredictable.

Hawthorn were NOT lucky to win in 2013-15. They did so for a number of reasons. First, it is clear that Clarkson has developed a game plan that enables an old, slow team to be predictable to itself irrespective of who is playing and who is injured.

Secondly, List Management has carefully and prospectively identified structural deficiencies in the playing group and gone out year in year out to recruit players that could protect the game plan from exploitation. Thus the recruitment of Lake and now Frawley. Thus the recruitment of Gibson and Gunston and Hale and McEvoy. In drafts, when the Hawks have not had top draft picks, they have gone for players with speed and endurance and good disposal - like Smith and Hill and Hartung.

Thirdly, dear old lady luck has been very kind. Mitchell, Hodge, Gibson and Burgoyne were the top 4 possession winners for the Hawks in last year's GF. The youngest of those 4 is Hodge, aged 31. All 4 might just be the top 4 possession winners in this year's GF the way they are going. Judd, similarly aged, is well-retired.

So you think Hawthorn have been lucky for all these years- just lucky... or they are smart sometimes, - well which is it man!! Make up your mind!!

Conclusion
There are many ways to gather a list that can win a flag. You can do it by the draft, you can do it by trading. Whatever way you are forming the list what is of vital importance is that of every player recruited the following question is asked:

"How is the player going to be part of our game plan when we are in a position to win a flag?"

The Hawks under Clarkson have known exactly the sort of player they wanted/needed to have a structurally complete list and have gone out of their way if necessary to get that player. They recruited Spangher ffs because they knew they were short on KPD. Lo and behold, in 2014 Spangher is required for GF day to help control Buddy, Goodes and Tippett. Never much of a footballer, (surely not one of your exalted "Top 4 side contending footballers"), Spangher knew what his role in the team was, carried it out, and is an entirely worthy Premiership player.

and now in your conclusion - you pretty much agree with the article...

Hawthorn have the following superstar players Hodge/Lewis/Mitchell/Roughhead/Rioli/Burgoyne and a bunch of A graders that would walk into any team starting 18. None of this build has been an accident. It has been a combination of many things- but always building and rebuilding around THE RIGHT CORE GROUP of genuine match winners.

We have Weitering and Cripps - and Cripps right now is being used exactly the way Judd was - proping up an over investment in teh WRONG senior player types.

Here is a question for you - just foir fun and giggles

Would you rather have Betts/Garlett/Waite/Henderson/Yarran
OR
Gibbs/Murphy/Thomas
with a supplementary
Do you think Bolton's game plan wouydl be better off with those departed IN the side
OR
DO you think Gibbs/Murphy/Thomas are better suited to the way Bolton wants the team to play?

 

[Windhover]

Oh contrare the club thinks he is an indispensable star and have treated him accordingly - I don't rate him as being useful to Carlton at all. In fact he is the stand out trade idea on the list right now. Useless to winning contested football or playing an inside role and better suited to playing HBF - where we have an abundance of younger and better longer term players available to develop and invest in.

Jabber, my point (pun intended) is that whether Gibbs is useful to Carlton will depend NOT on whether he is useful now (about which I disagree with you completely) but whether BB sees a use for him in a developing game plan leading to a Flag.

None of teh players you mention above are at Carlton anymore or haven't you noticed?

Umm, perhaps you can't read.

So you think Hawthorn have been lucky for all these years- just lucky... or they are smart sometimes, - well which is it man!! Make up your mind!!

Umm, the theory you can't read just got a boost. I did say luck was a part of it, as was being smart. You don't think they can both be causes of success?

and now in your conclusion - you pretty much agree with the article...

Theory you can't read is confirmed. That is just about as stupid a comment as you could make. Try backing it up if you think I am exaggerating.

Hawthorn have the following superstar players Hodge/Lewis/Mitchell/Roughhead/Rioli/Burgoyne and a bunch of A graders that would walk into any team starting 18. None of this build has been an accident. It has been a combination of many things- but always building and rebuilding around THE RIGHT CORE GROUP of genuine match winners.

We have Weitering and Cripps - and Cripps right now is being used exactly the way Judd was - proping up an over investment in teh WRONG senior player types.

Here is a question for you - just foir fun and giggles

Would you rather have Betts/Garlett/Waite/Henderson/Yarran
OR
Gibbs/Murphy/Thomas
with a supplementary
Do you think Bolton's game plan wouydl be better off with those departed IN the side
OR
DO you think Gibbs/Murphy/Thomas are better suited to the way Bolton wants the team to play?

Sigh. Here is an answer for you. Whether you have any ability (or perhaps interest, given you ask it just "foir fun and giggles") to comprehend it must be doubted.

I am not privy to BB's game plan. I can see in part what he is doing NOW. Whether in the longer term or with different players, how we are playing NOW would have much bearing on how we play with different players must be doubted. For example, Betts, Waite and Yarran in particular bring unusual and individualistic skill sets to any side. Any game plan BB developed with those players figured to be part of it would be a different game plan to one that did not have them.

Furthermore, 5 players does not make a team. Nor does 3 players plus "a supplementary" (whatever that is). How is it even possible to determine which of the sets of players would be preferred without knowing who is available to play with them?

I am sorry my answer is not as responsive as perhaps you hoped. I hope (but do not expect) you understand why.

 

[P_Crippy]

This is much better than Batman v Superman

 

[DangerousD]

The Hawks have been sniffing around Hooker and they usually get their man. Freo's window looks like its closing/closed now but Hawthorn will be thereabouts for a while yet if they recruit well.

McCarthy is an interesting one. He is contracted for 2017 as well and has honestly or otherwise played the mental health card to get out of Sydney on full pay. Next year if he is sound enough mentally to play for Freo then you would think the Giants would want a trade for him that has not been devalued by the events of this year. Word is that GWS are pretty dirty on Freo for getting in his ear in the first place and the idea that Freo may now get him for SFA must be pretty galling. If GWS don't get a first rounder for him I hope they keep him to his contract on principle otherwise anyone drafted from interstate would have the option of walking out on the team that drafted them.

Not sure how GWS can be annoyed for getting in the ear of a player as it happens all the time. I think they will swallow their pride and trade otherwise they risk losing more, what they get we will see.
As for the Hawks their run can't go on forever, like the Cats they will dip but a good football club will bounce back and be a good destination like the cats have shown

 

[DangerousD]

I have a top suggestion on how to rebuild a list and move forward during a rebuild.

To all STILL bemoaning the fact Betts, Garlett, Jacobs, Laidler, Bell, Robinson and Kennedy no longer play for us and are playing good footy at their respective clubs, MOVE ON. These players if still with us would be wasted and still wouldn't be part of our next flag push.

To all STILL complaining that we are paying Dale Thomas a ridiculous amount of money MOVE ON, we all know.

To move forward you need to let go of the past.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Say what you like about Windy, but he uses a systematic approach to analysis that you can appreciate.

Or that I can appreciate at least.

 

[BluesRule]

The Hawks have been sniffing around Hooker and they usually get their man. Freo's window looks like its closing/closed now but Hawthorn will be thereabouts for a while yet if they recruit well.

Part of the AFL Plan to 'equalise' the competition to keep Hawthorn winning premierships.

FA needs to change as at present every club pays a penalty (drop in draft order) when the Hawks get an extra high quality player outside of trading and the draft.

McCarthy is an interesting one. He is contracted for 2017 as well and has honestly or otherwise played the mental health card to get out of Sydney on full pay. Next year if he is sound enough mentally to play for Freo then you would think the Giants would want a trade for him that has not been devalued by the events of this year. Word is that GWS are pretty dirty on Freo for getting in his ear in the first place and the idea that Freo may now get him for SFA must be pretty galling. If GWS don't get a first rounder for him I hope they keep him to his contract on principle otherwise anyone drafted from interstate would have the option of walking out on the team that drafted them.

Can GWS put him in the pre-season draft or is he automatically a free agent?

Would love CFC to score another Nick Stevens type coup (as he would have to play if we drafted him or give up on AFL for a long time/ever)

 

[Cutz]

Part of the AFL Plan to 'equalise' the competition to keep Hawthorn winning premierships.

FA needs to change as at present every club pays a penalty (drop in draft order) when the Hawks get an extra high quality player outside of trading and the draft.



Can GWS put him in the pre-season draft or is he automatically a free agent?

Would love CFC to score another Nick Stevens type coup (as he would have to play if we drafted him or give up on AFL for a long time/ever)

OK...So the discussion seems to centre around game plans and drafting and trading certain types....good feet skills, good ball users, playing to Bolton's game plan etc..Have I missed something ? Because the one component that really has been discussed here is the environment these supposed high or mid draft picks enter. I'm speaking to seasoned Carlton people here. Its fair to say that had Gibbs and co arrived at Hawthorn and even Geelong they/he would of turned out to most likely be a different type of footballer. What the term Bolton recently used " High Performing" another term he has used "Learning Environment"

Only my opinion folks but if we do not get the environment right ...for kids to come to our club and make that massive step between lower age football and that elite level it makes absolutely no difference. We'll continue getting talented kids who have shown they can run on 8 cylinders at lower levels and then come to Carlton and play 200 games on 4.

Get the environment right. Turn it into a learning environment...And we'll start getting luckier and luckier. I'm fairly sure that one here would disagree with the coaches Hawthorn has produced from Bolton-Beveridge, to even the success the Box Hill Hawks have had. Their a club with a culture that is the polar opposite to ours over the last 15 years.

Dont post here much..But I'm a lifelong Carltonian who is looking forward to seeing this football club being rebuilt.....Rebuilt properly...for sustainable success.

 

[true blue19]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/tradin...e-the-rest-played-drafts-20151009-gk54vm.html

We have drafted poorly over the last couple of years but if you look at our trading and our current list we kind of fit this model.

2010

Gorringe pick 10
Lamb pick 21

2011

Sumner pick 10
Docherty pick 12
Kerridge pick 27

Tomlinson pick 9??
Mitchell pick 21??

2012

Plowman pick 3
Jaksch pick 12

2013

Cripps pick 13

2014

Boekhorst pick 19
DVR pick 28

Marchbank pick 6??

2015

Weitering pick 1
McKay pick 10
Curnow pick 12
Cunnington pick 23
Silvagni pick 53

 

[JustaBattler]

I think SOS 'gets' the way the overall picture has to be painted and what is involved - he'd be on the same page as Bolton .

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Parko on League Teams tonight said that the worry for Carlton going forward is that our bests every week are still our 28 year olds. This was not long after he had mentioned Docherty, Cripps and Weitering. Come on Parko, think man.

 

[thylacine60]

Parko can't wear a losing Carlton. Never could.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Using ages as of 1/1/2016 again (if you use current ages, our list ages by a year over the course of the season without us having a chance to address it), this is the make up of our side thus far.

Round 1 - total games 1858
1 x 18, 1 x 20, 1 x 21, 4 x 22, 1 x 23, 1 x 24, 1 x 25, 6 x 26, 1 x 27, 2 x 28, 2 x 29, 1 x 30+

Round 2 - total games 1842
2 x 18, 1 x 20, 1 x 21, 3 x 22, 1 x 23, 1 x 24, 1 x 25, 6 x 26, 1 x 27, 3 x 28, 1 x 29, 1 x 30+

Round 3 - total games 1708
2 x 18, 1 x 20, 2 x 21, 4 x 22, 1 x 23, 1 x 24, 1 x 25, 5 x 26, 3 x 28, 1 x 29, 1 x 30+

Round 4 (selected side) - total games 1579
2 x 18, 1 x 20, 3 x 21, 4 x 22, 1 x 23, 1 x 24, 1 x 25, 5 x 26, 3 x 28, 1 x 30+

This is with Walker injured and Jamison dropped. You can see what happens when Simmo retires and Rowe inevitably loses his spot. This list will get another year older and everything will push up one but we will bring another 6 18 year olds into the squad.

The side we have selected for round 4 has 11 players with 30 games or less. 5 others between 50-99 games.

Some detractors think we are not rebuilding properly. I think this shows we are doing a fairly decent job.

 

[thylacine60]

are the answers in the back of the book, ODN?