#indyref2 Scotland and the second independence referendum

[MaddAdam]

The word is that First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon is going to call on UK Prime Minister Theresa May to grand Scotland the Section 30 power to hold another independence referendum in the wake of Brexit.

Hard to see how May can in all democratic sense deny them. If anything, denying would further boost the pro-independence side.

Current polling has No 52 / Yes 48.

That's before Article 50 is triggered for Brexit and the shitshow of negotiations begins.

My tip: Yes squeaks it 51 / 49 and Scotland breaks from the UK and remains within the European Union.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

This coupled with Republicans gaining the majority in Northern Ireland, makes me happy in my crotch area

The end of the United Kingdom, an empire which committed mass atrocities all over the globe for significant periods of time, is well overdue.

 

[MaddAdam]

This coupled with Republicans gaining the majority in Northern Ireland, makes me happy in my crotch area.

Republicans didn't gain the majority, nationalists did.

SDLP = nationalists

Sinn Fein = republicans and nationalists.

(Seemingly small but kind of difference that has seen lots of people killed)

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Republicans didn't gain the majority, nationalists did.

SDLP = nationalists

Sinn Fein = republicans and nationalists.

(Seemingly small but kind of difference that has seen lots of people killed)

My bad.

In light of Gerry Adams smuggling Armagh out of NI I must have got confused.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/20...magh-across-the-border-while-no-ones-looking/

 

[MaddAdam]

My bad.

In light of Gerry Adams smuggling Armagh out of NI I must have got confused.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/20...magh-across-the-border-while-no-ones-looking/

I was just being a flog.

 

[SBYM]

Well then...

Interesting times ahead. My neighbour, Andy, is from Glasgow. I'll ask him what he thinks. I literally can't understand a word he says, but I'll ask.

 

[SBYM]

I just hope the debate doesn't get hysterical.

Not confident, obviously...

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Yes will likely win.

Anybody who voted No in 2014 due to EU membership will flip to Yes.

It is beautifully timed for maximum awkwardness for the UK Government. They'll be doing the "better together" spiel at the exact time they're working hard to pull Scotland out of the best trade deal it'll ever have. Any Leave politician campaigning for No will look like a hypocritical sack of s**t.

May, Corbyn and the Liberal Democrat leader won't be campaigning together like Cameron, Miliband and Clegg did.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I thought the SRP was a board for grown-ups??

Weird...

Its the second time hes tried pushing this linr

 

[MaddAdam]

May rejects Sturgeon's demand, playing perfectly into YES hands.

It is official: a Tory government that has one MP in Scotland, is denying Scotland - which voted convincingly against Brexit - the chance to determine its own path re: Europe.

May is in serious trouble of losing the referendum before it is even called.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

The Bute House bombshell dropped by Nicola Sturgeon when she announced she is to seek a second Scottish independence referendum was a moment of high political drama.

No-one had expected that the First Minister would announce her intention to request a section 30 order to transfer referendum holding powers from Westminster to Holyrood quite so soon.

Most had believed she would wait until this weekend’s SNP conference in Aberdeen to unveil her referendum plan in front of a sea of adoring activists.

Instead, she caught everyone – including the UK government – on the hop with a bold press conference held when Westminster was consumed with the imminent triggering of Article 50 to leave the EU.

But once jaws had been picked up from the Bute House floor, there was a feeling that no matter how dramatic the timing of Ms Sturgeon’s announcement, there was a sense of inevitability about it.

In truth, yesterday’s big development had been on the cards ever since the UK voted to leave the EU and Ms Sturgeon said it was “highly likely” indyref2 was on its way.

Having fought the 2016 Scottish election on a manifesto which said another poll would be triggered if there was a “significant and material change in the circumstances” since the No vote two and a half years ago, Ms Sturgeon felt justified in breaking the SNP’s promise that the 2014 poll would be a once in a generation experience.

Having ramped up expectations of a second vote, Ms Sturgeon had backed herself into a corner and it would have been impossible for her to back down without a furious backlash from the independence supporters who have flocked to the SNP.

The difficulty for Ms Sturgeon is that her wish for a referendum at some point between autumn 2018 and spring 2019 is a gamble. The economic case for independence was Alex Salmond’s Achilles heel in 2014. The questions over what sort of currency an independent Scotland would use remain, while the financial situation is even more precarious given the catastrophic collapse of the oil price.

The most recent figures suggest Scotland is running a public spending deficit of almost £15 billion. The decisive nature of the 2014 No vote when 55 per cent of the Scottish electorate rejected independence, also means Ms Sturgeon has a mountain to climb.

In a Scotland that has grown increasingly polarised over the constitutional question, there will be many who resent yesterday’s announcement and view the prospect of more division with horror.

Key to Ms Sturgeon’s strategy will be her claim that the UK government has failed to listen to the Scottish Government’s proposals for a Scottish specific Brexit deal that respected Scotland’s 62 per cent vote to Remain and protected its relationship with the single market.

Yesterday the First Minister fed that narrative by saying she had been met with a “brick wall of intransigence” from the UK government when faced with her proposals. A further complication for Ms Sturgeon is the uncertainty surrounding an independent Scotland’s place in the EU is an uncomfortable fit with her pro-EU rationale for holding a second vote.

There are, however, significant factors that offer the First Minister hope.

Yes campaigners are enthused and ready for round two – a state of affairs that contrasts with the remnants of the No campaign. The uneasy partnership between the Tories and Labour to create Better Together will not be repeated. The pro-Union side has no obvious figurehead and the collapse of Labour has seen its supporters drift to the SNP. The polls may suggest most Scots don’t want another referendum, but Ms Sturgeon will be encouraged by recent findings on the question of independence. The two most recent surveys suggest Brexit may have turned voters to independence with Yes support standing at 50 per cent and 48 per cent.

The Prime Minister now has the intensely demanding task of coping with a resurgent Scottish independence movement while grappling with the complexities of Brexit.

Mrs May, however, still has a strong card up her sleeve. It is Westminster that will decide whether to grant the 30 section order. A flat refusal is highly unlikely. But with Ms Sturgeon seeking a vote before Britain exits the EU, the likelihood is that Mrs May will try to delay the vote until after a deal has been struck. Let battle commence.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...on-has-backed-herself-into-a-corner-1-4391293

 

[Cooldude]

Just like America, we're watching the demise of a once great ancient kingdom crumbling before our eyes, not often you get to see it

Kick in the balls for Brexit negotiation and there will be endless s**t thrown about when the referendum will be held

 

[Bomberboyokay]

May rejects Sturgeon's demand, playing perfectly into YES hands.

It is official: a Tory government that has one MP in Scotland, is denying Scotland - which voted convincingly against Brexit - the chance to determine its own path re: Europe.

May is in serious trouble of losing the referendum before it is even called.

May seems like a reasonably pragmatic type. More than once I've read she half-assed her personal Remain campaign because she didn't want her Cabinet position and promotion chances damaged if Leave won and Cameron departed. She's now Prime Minister and George Osborne is writing a book or some s**t.

Might she take a similar view of Scottish Independence 2.0? Officially be all against it of course, play games about what dates she'll allow for the referendum, and take a tone that reminds English Conservatives of Thatcher and gives them erections. But not actually try too hard to convince Scottish people they should keep their 54 left wing SNP MPs in Westminster habitually voting against her government.

The history books might even be kind and blame Blair (for devolution) and Cameron (for ruining everything).

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Sinn Fein calls for Irish unity vote in wake of Brexit and Scottish indyref 2

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-scottish-independence-indyref2-a7628591.html

 

[Gough]

Bill, on song as usual.

 

[Gough]

Particularly pertinent.

Take down the Union Jack
It clashes with the sunset
And ask our Scottish neighbors
If independence looks any good
'Cause they just might understand
How to take an abstract notion of personal identity
And turn it into nationhood

 

[Gough]

A sort of accompanying piece from The Guardian in 2000 argument for a devolved England with York as a capital. I remember reading this at the time, and in light of the Scottish, and Welsh devolution debates that were taking place at the time it was the first time that I really felt the English were selling themselves short in the devolution debate.
http://www.billybragg.co.uk/press/story.php?ID=16

Why York should be the capital of England
Published: 12/01/2000 by: Article by Billy, The Guardian newspaper (UK), 12 January, 2000

Jack Straw's comments on the potentially violent nature of English nationalism may come to be seen as a defining moment in the search for a modern sense of English identity. Speaking in a Radio 4 documentary about what it means to be British in the aftermath of devolution, the home secretary shied away from the subject of a separate English identity by suggesting that there is something dark and dangerous lurking in the heart of England.

This instinctive reaction, that Englishness is a stone best left unturned, is not uncommon among liberal-minded people, woolly or otherwise. Sadly it is our squeamishness on this subject that has allowed it to become the preserve of the bigots and bootboys. Until the fair-minded majority of the English, who like to think of tolerance and a sense of fair play as national traits, can begin to evoke an inclusive identity for everyone who belongs to England, then it will be left to the Powellite right to declare who does and does not belong here.

But as we peep through our fingers, fearful of seeing Jack Straw's scary monster, how do we begin to define this new England? This is where Straw's comments take on their importance. The Daily Telegraph pounced on his words, pointing out that the world came to know England through the martial feats of the British (never English) empire and that he was guilty of confusing the two. The newspaper's reaction suggests that it is no longer permissible to speak in an ambiguous manner about England when you mean Britain: from this seemingly cosmetic distinction, a new sense of who we are may yet emerge.

One of the difficulties in getting the English to discuss their own distinctiveness is that the agenda has been set and is driven by events outside of our own country. All of the awkward questions that we are now having to address have been forced on us partly by Wales, but mostly by Scotland. Our Scottish neighbours have redefined themselves over the past 20 years and, by voting for their own parliament in the recent referendum, seem to have opted out of being British.

As we experience it now, Britishness is fundamentally a 19th-century concept based on an imperial world view. The British among us are a people who believe that there is only one culture in our society, a sense of tradition which can be summed up in the phrase Queen and Country. When I think of Britishness, I think of Jonathan Aitken and his trusty sword of truth. Perhaps, by beginning to create some clear blue water between the British and the English, we can start to evoke an inclusive identity that all our citizens can feel comfortable with.

Another effect of Jack Straw's comments was to raise once again the hoary old West Lothian Question. This is a game of charades that our parliamentarians play in the hope of undermining the devolution of power away from Westminster. Now that there is a Scottish parliament, the argument goes, English MPs no longer have a vote over a number of Scottish issues; so why should Scottish MPs retain their voting rights on matters pertaining to England?

Although this is presented as the main argument against devolution, it is in fact an argument that calls for a greater devolving of power away from Westminster, which may explain why MPs find it so unpalatable. Our cousins in the United States would see it as a simple problem of states' rights. Britain is a unitary state which has its own union parliament at Westminster. Scotland is a nation which has its national parliament in Edinburgh. The union parliament has representation from all of the nations that make up the UK and exercises power on that level. The national parliament in Edinburgh has members only from Scotland and debates Scottish issues. The answer to the West Lothian Question is simple: England must have its own national parliament.

That so many people are underwhelmed by that prospect may be partly due to the fact that we in England already feel we have a parliament in our capital city, London. But London isn't just the capital of our nation, it is also the capital of the unitary British state. While the organisers of the millennium celebrations in Cardiff and Edinburgh felt free to use the symbols of Welsh and Scots identity, there was no singing of Blake's Jerusalem in the Millennium Dome because that was the venue not for England's national celebration, but for Britain's.

A devolved England cannot flourish in the hothouse atmosphere of Westminster. Everyone agrees that too much power is already centralised in London and the south. If we are serious about devolution, then a new city will have to be chosen to be the capital of England, where the old traditions and the new diversities can find common ground. As a Londoner and a southerner, I would like to nominate York, a city outside the major metropolitan centres yet with a strong multi-cultural tradition.

While we strive to be British, to include our neighbours in the scheme of things, so we English seem to be losing out. The reality is that we are comfortable with being both British and English, it suits our cosmopolitan nature. However, the dark forces that Jack Straw hinted at are out there, determined to make Englishness a matter of ethnicity rather than personal identity. Would devolution make the bigots go away? Of course not, but an English national parliament would offer the people of England a forum in which to debate these issues and to find out whether or not we are as tolerant and fair-minded as we like to think we are.

Millennium Song
by Billy Bragg

Take down the Union Jack, it clashes with the sunset
And put it in the attic with the emperor's old clothes.

Britain isn't cool you know, it's really not that great,
It's not a proper country, it doesn't even have a patron saint,
It's just an economic union that's past its sell-by date.

Take down the Union Jack, it clashes with the sunset
And ask our Scottish neighbours if independence looks any good.

They might just understand how to take Nan abstract notion
Of personal identity and turn it into nationhood.

Is this the 19th century that I'm watching on TV?
The dear old Queen of England handing out those MBEs?
Member of the British Empire? That doesn't sound so good to me.

Gilbert and George are taking the piss aren't they?
Gilbert and George are taking the piss.
What could be more British than "Here's a picture of my bum"?

Gilbert and George are taking the piss.

Take down the Union Jack, it clashes with the sunset

And pile up all those history books but don't throw them away,
For they might just hold a clue about what it really means
To be Anglo Hyphen Saxon in England.co.uk


Billy Bragg, January 12, 2000

 

[MaddAdam]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...on-has-backed-herself-into-a-corner-1-4391293

Tom Peterkin and The Scotsman would say that.

 

[MaddAdam]

Just like America, we're watching the demise of a once great ancient kingdom crumbling before our eyes, not often you get to see it

Kick in the balls for Brexit negotiation and there will be endless s**t thrown about when the referendum will be held

UK is not an ancient kingdom, only dates from 1800.

Current lot on the throne very recent too.

 

[RedStarUncle]

Particularly pertinent.

I'm a huge Billy Bragg fan... but the irony here was when Scotland had their first referendum and chose NOT to leave the UK.

 

[quotemokc]

Scotland's deficit is larger than that of Greece
Nicola Sturgeon's pitch for independence looks set to centre on a desire for Scotland to remain in the European Union and the single market.

However, the terms by which an independent Scotland could enter the EU are extremely uncertain. Countries face a lengthy application process in order to become members and Scotland may well be forced to adopt the euro as the price of membership.

One of the target metrics the EU enforces on its members is for each state to aim for a budget deficit of no more than 3pc of GDP.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...onomically-risky-scottish-independence-would/

 

[MaddAdam]

Scotland's deficit is larger than that of Greece
Nicola Sturgeon's pitch for independence looks set to centre on a desire for Scotland to remain in the European Union and the single market.

However, the terms by which an independent Scotland could enter the EU are extremely uncertain. Countries face a lengthy application process in order to become members and Scotland may well be forced to adopt the euro as the price of membership.

One of the target metrics the EU enforces on its members is for each state to aim for a budget deficit of no more than 3pc of GDP.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...onomically-risky-scottish-independence-would/

To "aim for" being the crucial words there.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

* me this is Year 10 stuff.

British Empire began, in earnest, in what the late 1700s? At its peak it was less than a quarter of the world's population and land. By 1914 the clock was ticking and in 1945 it was curtains (and Britain was broke).

Putting aside your warped racist logic... how does this make the British - no - English responsible for creating everything?

 

[MaddAdam]

The British empire is responsible for everything we have today. .

Certainly is responsible for my ancestors being forced off their land at gunpoint and having to come here.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

I'm a huge Billy Bragg fan... but the irony here was when Scotland had their first referendum and chose NOT to leave the UK.

The 'pre and post Brexit' mood swing might colour things a bit different, yeah? It might galvanise them to finally up and leave.