#indyref2 Scotland and the second independence referendum

[Geelong_Sicko]

No no, explain more about this 'love of the EU that caused them to stay in the UK'.

I think it means that, if they withdrew from the U.K while it was still an E.U nation, Scotland would have to negotiate INTO the E.U as an independent nation. It wouldn't be 'already there' by default or through being an inheritor state or anything like that.

EDIT: replying to an older convo. Still valid.

 

[medusala]

How quick people forget Scotland have been a net contributor to the UK coffers for years. This position has been downplayed and reversed by the English press.

They havent been a net contributor for years. Even with oil at closer to $100/bbl.

 

[Total Power]

They havent been a net contributor for years. Even with oil at closer to $100/bbl.

Letters: Scotland has been a net contributor to the UK over the last 35 years

PETER Russell (Letters, December 21 asserts that Scotland is “sent £15 billion per annum to support Scottish public services”, but I am certain…

www.heraldscotland.com

 

[medusala]

Letters: Scotland has been a net contributor to the UK over the last 35 years

PETER Russell (Letters, December 21 asserts that Scotland is “sent £15 billion per annum to support Scottish public services”, but I am certain…

www.heraldscotland.com

link wont open.

Scot govt own figures disagree.

GERS shows that Scotland's fiscal position continues to be weak but tells us much more as well | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Today the Scottish Government released the latest version of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) covering 2017–18.

www.ifs.org.uk

 

[Total Power]

link wont open.

Scot govt own figures disagree.

GERS shows that Scotland's fiscal position continues to be weak but tells us much more as well | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Today the Scottish Government released the latest version of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) covering 2017–18.

www.ifs.org.uk

GERS data is not reliable

The GERS data is ludicrous: Scotland does not generate 60% of the UK’s net fiscal deficit

I have had the GERS data for fifteen minutes when starting to write this. Don't expect miracles as yet. But Table 1 told me most of what you need to know. It shows the net fiscal balances of Scotland and the UK as a whole since 1999. As GERS defines...

www.taxresearch.org.uk

 

[HairyO]

GERS data is not reliable

The GERS data is ludicrous: Scotland does not generate 60% of the UK’s net fiscal deficit

I have had the GERS data for fifteen minutes when starting to write this. Don't expect miracles as yet. But Table 1 told me most of what you need to know. It shows the net fiscal balances of Scotland and the UK as a whole since 1999. As GERS defines...

www.taxresearch.org.uk

But an opinion piece in a Scottish newspaper is reliable...

 

[Total Power]

But an opinion piece in a Scottish newspaper is reliable...

Where do you disagree? accounting is not straight forward, i know this from experience, you can basically show any figure you want, there are methods and techniques for that.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

link wont open.

Scot govt own figures disagree.

GERS shows that Scotland's fiscal position continues to be weak but tells us much more as well | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Today the Scottish Government released the latest version of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) covering 2017–18.

www.ifs.org.uk

You really ought to find a way to read that link, because it addresses your points fully.

 

[FurTheWin]

Not strictly thread related but Salmond just got off some fairly hefty charges
Anyone up there know the full story?

 

[The Warlord]

Pro independence majority in Holyrood.

It is on.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

If London will not grant Holyrood another referendum based on this majority, what happens next? Do the Scots have to just roll over and take it? What happens when democratic wishes are denied?

 

[iluvparis]

If London will not grant Holyrood another referendum based on this majority, what happens next? Do the Scots have to just roll over and take it? What happens when democratic wishes are denied?

From my understanding of the history of the British Isles...Liam Neeson gets involved.

 

[medusala]

If London will not grant Holyrood another referendum based on this majority, what happens next? Do the Scots have to just roll over and take it? What happens when democratic wishes are denied?

What a great point. Lets have a referendum in England with the question

Do you wish to stop massive subsidies going to Scotland?

No would get up with over 80%

#Democracy

 

[medusala]

You really ought to find a way to read that link, because it addresses your points fully.

Laughable. You really do sprout some utter gibberish. Monumental ignorance.

Scotland’s implicit budget deficit could be around 26-28% of GDP in 2020-21 | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Today’s Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures show Scotland’s implicit budget deficit increasing to 8.6% of GDP in 2019-20

www.ifs.org.uk

Scotland’s economy and implicit budget deficit are unlikely to follow exactly the same path as that of the UK as a whole. However estimates suggest Scotland and the UK as a whole have followed very similar economic trajectories so far, so assuming they follow the same fiscal path going forwards seems a reasonable central assumption. Assuming that Scotland’s public finances were to evolve in line with the OBR’s central scenario for the UK as a whole, Figure 3 shows that the implicit budget deficit would reach almost 28% of GDP this year if spending per person increases at the same percentage rate as the UK as a whole and just over 26% if it increases by the same in cash terms. Moreover, it would still exceed 11% of GDP in 2024-25. The latter is a very high level, probably exceeded by the UK government in only one year since the end of World War II: the current one.

 

[Bradesmaen]

What a great point. Lets have a referendum in England with the question

Do you wish to stop massive subsidies going to Scotland?

No would get up with over 80%

#Democracy

Baby lie lie lie.

 

[Total Power]

Laughable. You really do sprout some utter gibberish. Monumental ignorance.

Scotland’s implicit budget deficit could be around 26-28% of GDP in 2020-21 | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Today’s Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures show Scotland’s implicit budget deficit increasing to 8.6% of GDP in 2019-20

www.ifs.org.uk

Scotland’s economy and implicit budget deficit are unlikely to follow exactly the same path as that of the UK as a whole. However estimates suggest Scotland and the UK as a whole have followed very similar economic trajectories so far, so assuming they follow the same fiscal path going forwards seems a reasonable central assumption. Assuming that Scotland’s public finances were to evolve in line with the OBR’s central scenario for the UK as a whole, Figure 3 shows that the implicit budget deficit would reach almost 28% of GDP this year if spending per person increases at the same percentage rate as the UK as a whole and just over 26% if it increases by the same in cash terms. Moreover, it would still exceed 11% of GDP in 2024-25. The latter is a very high level, probably exceeded by the UK government in only one year since the end of World War II: the current one.

You'd get a resounding "I just don't want to be ruled by the Tories" in answer to this from most Scots.

Especially after being dragged out of the EU, I'd say pro-indy people would say it's worth it to actually dictate how Scotland is run. Unlike brexit there's meaningful harm done by people they didn't elect. (funny how democracy works now hey? same argument you used against the EU).

So yeah all your rational arguments fall by the way side.

I don't blame them either. Anything to get away from these *ers.

They may be worse of financially. But at least it would be their own doing.

 

[Crankyhawk]

What a great point. Lets have a referendum in England with the question

Do you wish to stop massive subsidies going to Scotland?

No would get up with over 80%

#Democracy

I must be missing your point surely the way you worded that the English would vote yes to stopping subsidies and it would be scottish (if they believed the subsides more important than independence) would vote no?

 

[medusala]

So yeah all your rational arguments fall by the way side.

They may be worse of financially. But at least it would be their own doing.

]

Lol. Exports to the EU in 2018 were £16bn compared to £51bn to the rest of the UK. Scotland would not only get stuffed on trade but have a massive budget deficit. Their finance industry would leave Edinburgh overnight and all the smart Scots would head to london. They would survive but would see a large decline in living standards. As for your anti Tory guff, Boris may be a disappointment but he is 1,000 times better than that incomprehensibly useless woman in Scotland.

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2020/01/export-statistics-scotland-2018/documents/export-statistics-scotland-2018---publication/export-statistics-scotland-2018---publication/govscot%3Adocument/Export%2BStatistics%2BScotland%2B2018%2B-%2BPublication.pdf

 

[medusala]

Baby lie lie lie.

Why do the mods let BaddyBoy continually lie and post such utter drivel on here? Its bloody tiresome.

Union dividend of £1,941 for every person in Scotland

Scottish Secretary responds to the 2019-20 Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures.

www.gov.uk

The Scottish Government’s own figures show clearly how much Scotland benefits from being part of a strong United Kingdom, with the pooling and sharing of resources that brings. People in Scotland, year after year, benefit from levels of public spending substantially above the United Kingdom average, with a Union dividend of £1,941 per person in Scotland.


Revenue per person in Scotland remained below the UK average. In 2019-20, including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue, revenue per person was £308 lower than the UK average. This was a substantial change from 2018-19 when revenue per head was £171 lower than the UK average.

 

[Bradesmaen]

Heavily biased report is heavily biased. Up next in the news with medusala, Sun causes warmth and water is wet.

 

[medusala]

Heavily biased report is heavily biased. Up next in the news with medusala, Sun causes warmth and water is wet.

Govt figures you absurd little being.

www.gov.uk

Anyone with an iq in double figures would grasp that.

 

[Bradesmaen]

Govt figures you absurd little being.

www.gov.uk

Anyone with an iq in double figures would grasp that.

And anyone with an IQ in single figures could see the report is deliberately to shame the Scottish Government. There's no modelling of what would happen if the Scots left and were to join the EU. Just more biased crap. Imperialist meds and his rule britannia mentality on show. Next you'll be demanding brown people worship the ground you walk on for saving them from tyranny.

 

[Total Power]

]

Lol. Exports to the EU in 2018 were £16bn compared to £51bn to the rest of the UK. Scotland would not only get stuffed on trade but have a massive budget deficit. Their finance industry would leave Edinburgh overnight and all the smart Scots would head to london. They would survive but would see a large decline in living standards. As for your anti Tory guff, Boris may be a disappointment but he is 1,000 times better than that incomprehensibly useless woman in Scotland.

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2020/01/export-statistics-scotland-2018/documents/export-statistics-scotland-2018---publication/export-statistics-scotland-2018---publication/govscot%3Adocument/Export%2BStatistics%2BScotland%2B2018%2B-%2BPublication.pdf

As usual the point goes over your head. You don't see a country wanting to vote for a referendum, needs to seek permission from Westminister, in a parliament dominated by England? funny when it works against you hey? anything to keep your union alive, i can see how worried you are about Scottish people....

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

The Scottish Government’s own figures show clearly how much Scotland benefits from being part of a strong United Kingdom, with the pooling and sharing of resources that brings...

Might they benefit from inclusion in a strong European Union?

 

[medusala]

Might they benefit from inclusion in a strong European Union?

How? They, due to EU rules will be forced to have a hard border with England with which they comparatively trade far more and there is no way the EU will subsidise them to the extent the UK does. Thats even before the other major implication ie currency and central bank.

Financial services are more important to Scotland than the UK as a whole. Independence would have a massive effect on that.

On the flip side independence may be excellent for Scotland as they would have to drop in a hurry the high welfare massively subsidised system they have now and get competitive just like Ireland did. Of course the SNP will never admit the truth.

As usual the point goes over your head. You don't see a country wanting to vote for a referendum, needs to seek permission from Westminister, in a parliament dominated by England? funny when it works against you hey? anything to keep your union alive, i can see how worried you are about Scottish people....

What uttter drivel. I would gladly see England become independent of Scotland and Wales. Cant come quick enough.