Analysis Inexperience watch

[BigCat2]

Update:
Round 10 vs Essendon
<25 games:
Brisbane 5 (Zorko, Lisle, Yeo, Clarke, Mayes)
Essendon 4 (Kommer, Baguley, Kavanagh, J Merrett)

 

[Toffee Lion]

Update:
Round 10 vs Essendon
<25 games:
Brisbane 5 (Zorko, Lisle, Yeo, Clarke, Mayes)
Essendon 4 (Kommer, Baguley, Kavanagh, J Merrett)

That is some serious quality difference as well, in our favour.

 

[chopperduck]

Much more competitive with fewer youngsters.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Update

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - ??? vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 6 or 7 vs. Carlton 4

Interesting points
- if Golby doesn't play we will have 7 players with less than 25 games experience each against Carlton
- either way we will have 9 players with less than 40 games experience compared to 7 for Carlton
- Green and Zorko will be playing their 25th game and will therefore be out of my very inexperienced category next week (joining Golby and Lester who have already passed that mark this year)
-as I said in the Essendon game thread, since the start of 2012 when we go into a game with 3+ more very inexperienced players than our opponents we are only 2 wins & 14 losses = 12.5% winning ratio
-In contrast, since the start of 2012 when we have had less than 3 more very inexperienced players than the opposition we have a record of 11 wins & 3 losses = 78.6% winning ratio

 

[dlanod]

So Doc coming in reduces our chances of winning by 66.1%? Burn the witch!

 

[John]

This is one of the better threads around here. Keep up the good work Last

 

[blynd_freddie]

So Doc coming in reduces our chances of winning by 66.1%? Burn the witch!

On the strength of losing 3 of our back six i changed my tip today... better also burn me

 

[Last of the Roys]

Another update given the experience we seemed to have lost this week:

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - ??? vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6

Interesting points
- On first glance the inexperience differential doesn't look nearly as bad as you would think it would be
- However, we have a massive 12 players with less than 40 games experience each compared to 7 from Collingwood. That is a huge gap.
- In terms of players with less than 10 games each, we will go in with 6 compared to Collingwood's 4

Overall I think we are lucky Collinwood are going in with a fairly inexperienced side from their perspective. But I just can't see how we can get past the fact we have a whopping 6 players (including our two ruckmen) with less than 10 games experience and only 10 players with more than 40 games experience each.

 

[Cousin Jed]

Another one:

Brisbane have 6 teenagers in the team this round. Only GWS with 8 have more than 3 this round

C/- @FoxFootyAnalyst

 

[blynd_freddie]

Another one:

Brisbane have 6 teenagers in the team this round. Only GWS with 8 have more than 3 this round

C/- @FoxFootyAnalyst

But hopefully we'll have 22 playing a mid year small g, small f, grand final tomorrow night - about time they played a NEAFL game at the gabba.

 

[Happy_Neale]

This thread gives me some real excitement for the future. Keep it up LoTR!

 

[Last of the Roys]

Here we go for another week

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - ??? VS. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3

Interesting points

- We have 5 players in our team that have played more than 25 games but less than 40 games each (Zorko, Lester, Golby, Harwood and Bewick)
- In terms of total players with less than 40 games experience each we have 11 in our side vs. 5 for Freo

Freo are suprisingly very experienced considering some of their big injuries. It is going to be a very tough ask for a young side to beat them over there.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Thought we would be much closer with the changes.

 

[western royboy]

Interesting points

- We have 5 players in our team that have played more than 25 games but less than 40 games each (Zorko, Lester, Golby, Harwood and Bewick)
- In terms of total players with less than 40 games experience each we have 11 in our side vs. 5 for Freo

Freo are suprisingly very experienced considering some of their big injuries. It is going to be a very tough ask for a young side to beat them over there.

Great work again LOTR, shows the depth that Freo have now got in their group which allows them to absorb having crucial players like Sandilands and Pavlich amongst others unavailable yet still have enough foot soldiers that can stand up and get the job done.

We need to keep putting games into our group of young players that are going to be long termers - which we are appear to be doing.

 

[Jorgo]

Interesting points


- We have 5 players in our team that have played more than 25 games but less than 40 games each (Zorko, Lester, Golby, Harwood and Bewick)

This shows that, despite the horror at suggested "inconsistencies" in our line up each week, we're building a neat little core of players who are getting some steady exposure to AFL games. And all slowly inching towards the "magical" 50 games milestone.

Using your 25-40 window Last of the Roys our list currently has the following in that bracket:

Bewick
Cornelius
Golby
Green
Harwood
Lester
Zorko


Also the following are close to joining that group:

Karnezis (21)
McKeever (21)

So there is a developing, AFL exposed core coming through.

 

[POBT]

Not saying this is our best side but we're now in a position where we can play 22 guys who have at least 25 games experience.

B: Adcock Merrett Patfull
HB: Harwood Maguire Golby
C: Polkinghorne Moloney Redden
HF: Bewick Brown Hanley
F: McGrath Staker Zorko
R: Leuenberger Rich Rockliff

I: Martin, Raines, Black
S: Lester

Emergency: Banfield, Cornelius, Green


Actually, looking at the named 22, it wouldn't be far off our best side.

 

[POBT]

Replace Staker with Martin as full forward into the side I picked and our entire spine is missing this week.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Back again

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - ? vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4

Interesting points

- Last time we only had 5 players with less than 25 games each playing we upset Essendon (who coincidentally had 4 such players, the same number Geelong will have)
- 5 very inexperienced players is the equal lowest number we have played since the start of 2012 (we have done it twice since then and won both times)
- (What is suprising is that our 3 emergencies all have reasonable experience as well)
- However, we also have 4 players who are just over the 25 game mark - so we actually have 9 players with less than 40 games (actually 9 with less than 33 games) experience each vs. Geelong with 6 such players

So I think we definitely have some chance of winning. Being at home will help, but playing against the most consistent and classiest side of the last 7 years obviously makes things a tad more difficult.

 

[BigCat2]

You da man.

 

[scattman3]

This thread shows exactly why I want Voss to get another contract. When we have enough players that know how Voss wants them to play we tend to win. Very promising signs for the future and a big tick for Voss's game plan.

 

[jjami15]

Need this to come out just before the game so I can put some cash on or boys. Is it just a statistical anomaly? I don't think so.

 

[jjami15]

Oops just checked earlier thread, my bad!

 

[chopperduck]

It constantly shows tht we just need more time for our young players. At AFl level, you can't field a team of boys, GWS and GC have shown no matter how good your top few players are, and how good your young players are, you still need time and experience across every line. No matter who the coach is, the list needs time. But I like the fight that Voss is imprinting onto our young list. Also have to fight for and earn their senior games, despite being a young team.

 

[Last of the Roys]

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - ? vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4

Interesting points
- We are down to just 4 players with less than 25 games experience this week - the lowest number since I started looking at this issue from the start of 2012.
- However we do have another 4 players just over that mark - Zorko on 28, Lester 30, Golby 31 and Harwood 33 - that gives us 8 players with less than 50 games each (actually 8 with less than 34 games experience each).
- The Hawks have 7 players playing with less than 50 games experience each - however their rung above the 25 game mark are slightly more advanced than ours = Gunston on 43, Savage on 46 and Smith on 49.
- So again we are in with a shot at winning given the relative inexperience levels are similar. But given it is away and against a team that has won 11 games in a row I think it might be beyond us.

 

[Last of the Roys]

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - ??? vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7

Interesting points
- We are down to just 2 players with less than 25 games experience (Clarke and Mayes).
- Although we have another 6 players with 25 games or more but less than 50 games (including Green who is lining up for his 26th game) - so 8 players with less than 50 games experience each.
- The Suns are very inexperienced with 7 players with less than 25 games each, and 17 players in total with less than 50 games experience (although 4 of those players are now in the high 40's).
- It is only the second time all year we have had less very inexperienced players than our opponent (the other time was also against the Suns).
- Anyway, no excuses this week - based on the big inexperience differential this is a game we definitely should win.