Analysis Inexperience watch

[fanackapan]

We shouldn't be favourites, but the experience difference isn't enough to confidently predict a Blues win. Winnable, but tough.

R18 Lions vs Blues at Gabba, 23 July, 2017
(0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Blues 4)
0 to 24 games - Lions 8 vs. Blues 8
25 to 49 games - Lions 2 vs. Blues 3
50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Blues 5
100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Blues 2
200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Blues 4

Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 66.2 vs. Blues 82.5 (= -16.2 games on average)
Average age - Lions 23.1 vs. Blues 23.9 (= -0.8 years on average)
Average height - Lions 188.7cm vs. Blues 188.2cm (= +0.5cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 86.5kg vs. Blues 86.4kg (= +0.2kg on average)

[I've changed my method of average age calculation, so this and subsequent analyses will be higher, and shouldn't be compared to my earlier age averages]

 

[Dalions]

We shouldn't be favourites, but the experience difference isn't enough to confidently predict a Blues win. Winnable, but tough.

R18 Lions vs Blues at Gabba, 23 July, 2017
(0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Blues 4)
0 to 24 games - Lions 8 vs. Blues 8
25 to 49 games - Lions 2 vs. Blues 3
50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Blues 5
100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Blues 2
200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Blues 4

Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 66.2 vs. Blues 82.5 (= -16.2 games on average)
Average age - Lions 22.5 vs. Blues 23.5 (= -1.0 years on average)
Average height - Lions 188.7cm vs. Blues 188.2cm (= +0.5cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 86.5kg vs. Blues 86.4kg (= +0.2kg on average)

22.5 yr average - Wow! That is young even for us.

 

[fanackapan]

I suspect Jivlain and I calculate the ages slightly differently (his is probably more correct for calculating an average), but we are certainly young, one way or another.

[edit: changed my formula to be more accurate]

 

[Jivlain]

I suspect Jivlain and I calculate the ages slightly differently (his is probably more correct for calculating an average), but we are certainly young, one way or another.

[edit: changed my formula to be more accurate]

Yeah, much better agreement with the ages I generated for this week in the revised version


Given that we've both been so poor for so long, I think the fact that Carlton have four pick ones in their side versus none for us does speak to the difference in our club spirits

The nice thing about this week is that while there is, as usual, a difference in games played, it's all in the very top-end and diminishing returns. Around the ground we're comfortably ahead on disposals, contested possessions, clearances, 1%ers and even goalkicking.

We are still behind in marks, and also tackles - we've got a few who need to pick up those numbers (actually sticking them would help). The fact that our best named tackler is playing injured won't help either. But overall, the stats tell a promising picture.

 

[a mayes ing]

Surprised about this. We are actually ahead for most.

 

[fanackapan]

Good Lord but we're young. The Eagles aren't. Conventional wisdom (and every other kind of wisdom) says teams this young don't win away against a veteran team at Subiaco.


R19 Lions vs Eagles at Subiaco, 30 July, 2017
(0 to 10 games - Lions 5 vs. Eagles 2)
0 to 24 games - Lions 8 vs. Eagles 2
25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Eagles 3
50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Eagles 3
100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Eagles 10
200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Eagles 4

Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 60.5 vs. Eagles 126.5 (= -66.0 games on average)
Average age - Lions 22.9 vs. Eagles 26.2 (= -3.3 years on average)
Average height - Lions 189.6cm vs. Eagles 187.6cm (= +2.0cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 87.7kg vs. Eagles 90.8kg (= -3.1kg on average)

 

[Dalions]

Good Lord but we're young. The Eagles aren't. Conventional wisdom (and every other kind of wisdom) says teams this young don't win away against a veteran team at Subiaco.


R19 Lions vs Eagles at Subiaco, 30 July, 2017
(0 to 10 games - Lions 5 vs. Eagles 2)
0 to 24 games - Lions 8 vs. Eagles 2
25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Eagles 3
50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Eagles 3
100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Eagles 10
200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Eagles 4

Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 60.5 vs. Eagles 126.5 (= -66.0 games on average)
Average age - Lions 22.9 vs. Eagles 26.2 (= -3.3 years on average)
Average height - Lions 189.6cm vs. Eagles 187.6cm (= +2.0cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 87.7kg vs. Eagles 90.8kg (= -3.1kg on average)

Sheite!

 

[fanackapan]

Sheite!

Quite.

Pretty sure it's our youngest side of the year. Bigger age & experience gaps than even the Hawks game.

 

[jackess]

With all that experience the Eagles must be a top 4 team, right?

 

[winged1]

The pressure is all on the eagles. They are expected to win big.

If we somehow pull this off there will be a major blood letting in WA

 

[Jivlain]

Yowch.

 

[fanackapan]

With last week's teams (Lions and Bulldogs), we were no chance, but given the changes, we go from rank outsiders to underdogs. Possible, but Bulldogs still deserved favourites based on these numbers.

R20 Lions vs Bulldogs at The Gabba, 05 August, 2017
(0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Bulldogs 1)
0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. Bulldogs 3
25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Bulldogs 4
50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Bulldogs 7 6
100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Bulldogs 7
200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Bulldogs 1 2

Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 65.1 vs. Bulldogs 83 93.3 (= -17.9 -28.2 games on average)
Average age - Lions 23 vs. Bulldogs 23.7 24.3 (= -0.8 -1.3 years on average)
Average height - Lions 189.2cm vs. Bulldogs 186.7cm 187cm (= +2.5cm +2.2 on average)
Average weight - Lions 86.1kg vs. Bulldogs 87.1kg (= -1.0kg on average)

(Edited to show the impact of the Murphy-for-Johannisen late change. FWIW, it changed the numbers from "we might have a shot" to "basically no chance").

 

[Len S]

With last week's teams (Lions and Bulldogs), we were no chance, but given the changes, we go from rank outsiders to underdogs. Possible, but Bulldogs still deserved favourites based on these numbers.

R20 Lions vs Bulldogs at Subiaco, 05 August, 2017
(0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Bulldogs 1)
0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. Bulldogs 3
25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Bulldogs 4
50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Bulldogs 7
100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Bulldogs 7
200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Bulldogs 1

Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 65.1 vs. Bulldogs 83 (= -17.9 games on average)
Average age - Lions 23 vs. Bulldogs 23.7 (= -0.8 years on average)
Average height - Lions 189.2cm vs. Bulldogs 186.7cm (= +2.5cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 86.1kg vs. Bulldogs 87.1kg (= -1.0kg on average)

Thanks again mate.

 

[Jivlain]

We're behind on most stats. On the plus side, this is not the gap you'd expect between our list and the reigning premiers, and this Bulldogs side we face is younger than the side that won a grand final recently.

And we do have a good recent record against the Dogs, especially at the Gabba:


@fanackapan makes a good point about the differences between the selected squads for last week and those for this week. Here's what those differences look like:

And, yeah, fair to say, our round 19 squad wouldn't have a chance.

 

[Jivlain]

Well, it's finally actually happened.

We've selected an AFL team that's more experienced than the opposition.

We're still (a tiny little bit) younger, but, yes, more experienced.



We also kick more goals, collect more disposals, win more contested ball, lay more tackles, produce more clearances, and score more Fantasy points. We even have more Brownlow votes. A little bit down on marks and 1%ers though.

Of course, this business of being more experienced is all very new to us. Let's hope we cope with the situation.

 

[Dylan12]

I seem to recall an instance a year or two ago when we were a little more experienced and we didn't handle it at all well and were duly spanked.

You could say we got ahead of ourselves rather prematurely, although I'd be surprised if that was the case under Coach Fagan.

 

[Jivlain]

I seem to recall an instance a year or two ago when we were a little more experienced and we didn't handle it at all well and were duly spanked.

You could say we got ahead of ourselves rather prematurely, although I'd be surprised if that was the case under Coach Fagan.

Yeah, we've been known to make a mess of it in recent times.

 

[Nunez]

Yeah, we've been known to make a mess of it in recent times.

View attachment 402371

To be fair we've made a mess of most seasons in recent times so it isn't unexpected is it?

 

[M Malice]

Yeah, we've been known to make a mess of it in recent times.

View attachment 402371

Bloody hell, Leppa certainly made a hash of it, 2 wins 7 losses in his time as head coach.

Vossy was 13 wins and 2 losses, he was extremely hard done by considering what he had to work with particularly the buffoons at board level during his tenure.

 

[winged1]

Bloody hell, Leppa certainly made a hash of it, 2 wins 7 losses in his time as head coach.

Vossy was 13 wins and 2 losses, he was extremely hard done by considering what he had to work with particularly the buffoons at board level during his tenure.

Yes. But he made some howling errors early and there was no one there strong enough to say "hang on if you do this and it backfires, the club will struggle for the next 10 years". We needed a Fagan then.

But his treatment by the board was disgraceful...and we still haven't cleared all the effluent out.

 

[fanackapan]

Need to be careful how we read these. A lot of those losses are with only marginal experience advantages, and its really only significant above a threshold (about 15, I think). If we use a threshold of 15 in that table, we're 11-1 in games in which we had a significant experience advantage.

 

[fanackapan]

Updated my stats from last week to adjust for the Murphy-for-Johanissen change. Changed the statistical prognosis significantly.

 

[dlanod]

Hanley out for Bowes, just to mess with your numbers.

 

[fanackapan]

As mentioned, we're more experienced than the Suns side, and actually older than them now that Bowes comes in for Hanley, but I would maintain that neither are significant enough to indicate a win. One would think that form and confidence make us favourites, though. Its a whole new world. Dogs and cats, living together.

If you're uncomfortable with optimism, then the list that Jivlain posted only included 3 games where we both had more games than our opponents and averaged less than 70 games ourselves. We lost all 3, by a combined 172 points.

R21 Lions vs Suns at The Gabba, 12 August, 2017
(0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Suns 7)
0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Suns 7
25 to 49 games - Lions 2 vs. Suns 4
50 to 99 games - Lions 8 vs. Suns 7
100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Suns 4
200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Suns 0

Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 71.5 vs. Suns 59.6 (= +11.9 games on average)
Average age - Lions 23.6 vs. Suns 22.5 (= +1.1 years on average)
Average height - Lions 188.7cm vs. Suns 186.5cm (= +2.2cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 86.5kg vs. Suns 88.3kg (= -1.8kg on average)

[Edit: updated for Bowes-for-Hanley, CBeams-for-Berry]

 

[a mayes ing]

Hanley out for Bowes, just to mess with your numbers.

and Berry out for Beams