Analysis Inexperience watch

[Jorgo]

I look forward to this thread every week. Thank you Lotr, you're doing us all an excellent service.

 

[chopperduck]

Need to use the experience to our advantage, play smart, don't waste the ball, tackle hard, pressure them into mistakes. If we can't win the contested ball, make sure they earn it. We are still bigger than them and should have better fitness.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Better late than never

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - Won by 33 points vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7
• Round 16 - ? vs. North at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. North 4

- So for the second week in a row we go into a game with less very inexperienced players than our opposition
- Although in terms of players who have played less than 50 games, we have 8 in our team vs. North who have 7
- The game is clearly there to be won, inexperience shouldn't be much of a factor, the worry is more about if North get on a roll (like last week and earlier in the year against us).

 

[Cousin Jed]

You are better than the world cup octopus

 

[blynd_freddie]

You are better than the world cup octopus

Paul likes this!

 

[Panthera]

I feel these 18 players (youngsters) will decide how far / quickly the Lions improve:

Docherty, Harwood, Polec, Longer, Green, Rich, Hanley, Zorko, Beams, Leuenberger, Yeo, Karnezis, Redden, Mayes, Lester, Rockliff, Golby & Clarke.

They average 37 games played with only the bolded having played over 50 games

Really hope to see the players in Blue in the same team before seasons' end - think they'd give the opposition a headache or two

 

[Last of the Roys]

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - Won by 33 points vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7
• Round 16 - Won by 12 points vs. North at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. North 4
• Round 17 - ? vs. Melbourne in Darwin - Lions 3 vs. Melbourne 8

- Pretty much as I would have expected this week - Melbourne have far more very inexperienced players, which means the Lions deserve to be heavy favourites (especially throwing in the way Melbourne have played for most of the year).
- In terms of players with less than 50 games experience it is much closer - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 10.
- Yeo is getting up towards the 25 game mark - he will play game number 21 this week, while Bewick is playing game number 42 and is closing in on the 50 game mark.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Given Golby and Brown are out - here is the slight update

• Round 17 - ? vs. Melbourne in Darwin - Lions 5 vs. Melbourne 8

- in terms of players with less than 50 games expereience it is now 10 out of 22 for each side
- we are still strong favourites, but the experience gap has narrowed a lot

 

[Last of the Roys]

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - Won by 33 points vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7
• Round 16 - Won by 12 points vs. North at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. North 4
• Round 17 - Won by 19 points vs. Melbourne in Darwin - Lions 5 vs. Melbourne 8
• Round 18 - ??? vs. Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium - Lions 4 vs. Port 5

- Very even match up against Port in terms of experience - we have 4 players with less than 25 games to their 5, but it is 9 players each in terms of those with less than 50 games experience that are playing

 

[Jorgo]

Matches how I feel about this game that analysis. Going to be a tight affair I feel.

 

[POBT]

Home ground swings it Port's way IMO. But, as this shows, the clubs are remarkably even in their development - Port has probably made the most of their opportunities this year whereas we haven't.

 

[chopperduck]

Would be interested to see a 100-200 game player comparison. This is our weakest area in our list, and arguably the most important when players play their best footy.

I think this will be a very close game with both teams on similar development in terms of list profile.

 

[Last of the Roys]

With Lester out and Crisp in it is now completely even

• Round 18 - ??? vs. Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium - Lions 5 vs. Port 5

- both teams have 5 players with less than 25 games experience and 9 players with less than 50 games experience that are playing
- to follow Chopper's suggestion I had a look at players with 100-200 games that are playing. The Lions have 7 and Port 6. Both teams have two players with more than 200 games, while Port has 5 players in the 50-100 game range to our 4.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Here we go again

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - Won by 33 points vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7
• Round 16 - Won by 12 points vs. North at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. North 4
• Round 17 - Won by 19 points vs. Melbourne in Darwin - Lions 5 vs. Melbourne 8
• Round 18 - Lost by 9 points vs. Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium - Lions 5 vs. Port 5
• Round 19 - ? vs. St.Kilda at the Gabba - Lions 5 vs. Saints 7

- Another reasonably close match-up experience wise - we have 5 players with less than 25 games to their 7. Although we have 10 players with less than 50 games experience to their 9.
- Still, it would be disappointing to lose this one at home.

 

[chopperduck]

Favourite thread currently on BF. Big for the effort put into this thread each week. So ethi g that doesn't get a lot of attention in the media, but is very relevant to our developing team.

 

[Viceregal]

Loving it as well - will we eventually move to the same thing but focussing on our 50-100 vs them rather than the <25 end as we develop etc?

 

[The Flying Belgian]

For those interested, a graph of the respective teams games played data.

 

[Skoob]

For those interested, a graph of the respective teams games played data.

View attachment 25443

Duritz, is that you?
Love me an unlabled axis. I'm a bit thick at this hour to work out what's what there.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Duritz, is that you?
Love me an unlabled axis. I'm a bit thick at this hour to work out what's what there.

Thought it was self-explanatory. x is the number of players, y the number of games played.

 

[Skoob]

Thought it was self-explanatory. x is the number of players, y the number of games played.

Sorry, not deliberately being dense (comes naturally where graphs are concerned) but that then shows we have 22 players with 240 games?

 

[Ironmonger]

Thought it was self-explanatory. x is the number of players, y the number of games played.

Took me a while to figure out as well, TFB. I reckon line graphs work best when the x axis is a measure of time.

Interesting though. I reckon the best teams would have a bulge upwards in the middle.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Sorry, not deliberately being dense (comes naturally where graphs are concerned) but that then shows we have 22 players with 240 games?

Ah. I see the confusion. Players are sorted in ascending order of games played.So player 1 might have only played 9 games (Docherty) whereas player 22 (Browny) has played 244.

Simply, the greater the spaces between the lines, the greater the edge in experience. Dunno, just thought it might be an interesting way to look at it.

 

[Skoob]

Ah. I see the confusion. Players are sorted in ascending order of games played.So player 1 might have only played 9 games (Docherty) whereas player 22 (Browny) has played 244.

Simply, the greater the spaces between the lines, the greater the edge in experience. Dunno, just thought it might be an interesting way to look at it.

Ah. I was think number of players. Much clearer thanks.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Another update - look away now if you want to maintain some confidence going into the Richmond match!

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)

• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - Won by 33 points vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7
• Round 16 - Won by 12 points vs. North at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. North 4
• Round 17 - Won by 19 points vs. Melbourne in Darwin - Lions 5 vs. Melbourne 8
• Round 18 - Lost by 9 points vs. Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium - Lions 5 vs. Port 5
• Round 19 - Won by 31 points vs. St.Kilda at the Gabba - Lions 5 vs. Saints 6
• Round 20 - ??? vs. Richmond at the MCG - Lions 5 vs. Richmond 1

- The Richmond side this week is probably the most experienced side we have played all year. They definitely have the least amount of very inexperienced players with just the 1 (vs. our 5).
- In terms of players with less than 50 games experience, we have 9 and they have 5.
- To win this game with a huge experience deficit, especially away from home and against a Richmond team suddenly full of confidence, would take an enormous effort.
- We have only managed to win 2 games in the last two years when we have 3+ very inexperienced players more than our opposition - both of those games were at home and one was against Melbourne.
- Over that 2 year period we have gone 2 wins and 16 losses in such games, a winning ratio of just over 11%.

 

[Cousin Jed]

Punters Club would load up on the Lions...