Analysis Inexperience watch

[Lionheart182]

Good God. I had an inkling of confidence until reading that.

 

[JasRulz63]

I think they have 5 under 50 (Vlaustuin, Morris, Ellis, Astbury, Conca). Another thing that shows their experience, is that the next highest games played after those 5 for them, is Vickery with 70, and Martin with 81. That means 16 of their players have 81+ games experience, we'll only have 11.

 

[Requiem]

So basically we have an 11% chance of winning?

Considering Vossy has pumped this up to be our mini Grand Final I suspect the only way we will is if the team mentality echoes Vossy's claims.

 

[Last of the Roys]

I think they have 5 under 50 (Vlaustuin, Morris, Ellis, Astbury, Conca). Another thing that shows their experience, is that the next highest games played after those 5 for them, is Vickery with 70, and Martin with 81. That means 16 of their players have 81+ games experience, we'll only have 11.

You are definitely right about the number of Tigers players in the team with less than 50 games, it is actually 5 (vs. our 9). I stuffed that one up for some reason.

 

[Caiphus]

I'd imagine the losing margin in those cases would be quite high as well. Puts it in the praying territory rather than just hoping.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Not too excited about this week, but here is an update anyway:

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - Won by 33 points vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7
• Round 16 - Won by 12 points vs. North at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. North 4
• Round 17 - Won by 19 points vs. Melbourne in Darwin - Lions 5 vs. Melbourne 8
• Round 18 - Lost by 9 points vs. Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium - Lions 5 vs. Port 5
• Round 19 - Won by 31 points vs. St.Kilda at the Gabba - Lions 5 vs. Saints 6
• Round 20 - Lost by 23 points vs. Richmond at the MCG - Lions 5 vs. Richmond 1
• Round 21 - ? vs. GWS at the Gabba - Lions 3 vs. GWS 7

- In terms of players with less than 50 games experience we have 9 in our side, GWS has 17 (so they only have 5 players playing who have played 50 games or more in their side, one of which is Phil Davis who is playing his 51st game).
- Yeo is playing his 25th game for the Lions, I think he is the 6th Lions player to go past that mark this year (along with Golby, Zorko, Gree, Lester and Cornelius [who is stuck on 25]).

 

[Last of the Roys]

OK, round 22 update:

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - Won by 33 points vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7
• Round 16 - Won by 12 points vs. North at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. North 4
• Round 17 - Won by 19 points vs. Melbourne in Darwin - Lions 5 vs. Melbourne 8
• Round 18 - Lost by 9 points vs. Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium - Lions 5 vs. Port 5
• Round 19 - Won by 31 points vs. St.Kilda at the Gabba - Lions 5 vs. Saints 6
• Round 20 - Lost by 23 points vs. Richmond at the MCG - Lions 5 vs. Richmond 1
• Round 21 - Won by 60 points vs. GWS at the Gabba - Lions 3 vs. GWS 7
• Round 22 - ? vs. Western Bulldogs at the Gabba - Lions 3 vs. Bulldogs 4

- Interestingly both teams have obviously given youngsters a lot of games this year. In round 1 the Lions had 8 players with less than 25 games playing, that is now down to 3 (mostly via a number of players passing the 25 game mark). The Bulldogs are similar with 7 in round 1 now down to 4 this week.
- Yeo is playing his 26th game this week so he is the latest Lion to move past the 25 game mark.
- Both teams will have 10 players playing with less than 50 games experience each.
- However, the Bulldogs go in with an average of 99.2 games played vs. 82.5 for the Lions. That is mostly due to them having 5 players with more than 200 games vs. our 1.

By categories of games played:
- Less than 25 = Lions 3, Dogs 4
- 25 to 50 = Lions 7, Dogs 6
- 50 to 100 = Lions 5, Dogs 3
- 100 to 200 = Lions 6, Dogs 4
- 200+ = Lions 1, Dogs 5

 

[Last of the Roys]

Probably the last update of the year:

• Round 1 - Lost by 68 points vs. the Bulldogs at Etihad - Lions 8 vs. Bulldogs 7 (we had 8 players with less than 25 games experience, the Bulldogs had 7)
• Round 2 - Lost by 19 points vs. Adelaide at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Adelaide 3
• Round 3 - Won by 2 points vs. Gold Coast at Metricon - Lions 7 vs. Gold Coast 9
• Round 4 - Lost by 63 points vs. North at Etihad - Lions 7 vs. North 4
• Round 5 - Won by 28 points vs. Melbourne at the GABBA - Lions 9 vs. Melbourne 6
• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3
• Round 7 - Lost by 26 points vs. West Coast at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. West Coast 2
• Round 8 - Won by 10 points vs. Essendon at Etihad - Lions 5 vs. Essendon 4
• Round 9 - Lost by 13 points vs. Carlton at the GABBA - Lions 7 vs. Carlton 4
• Round 10 - Lost by 49 points vs. Collingwood at the GABBA - Lions 8 vs. Collingwood 6
• Round 11 - BYE
• Round 12 - Lost by 40 points vs. Freo at Subiaco - Lions 6 vs. Freo 3
• Round 13 - Won by 5 points vs. Geelong at the GABBA - Lions 5 vs. Geelong 4
• Round 14 - Lost by 58 points vs. Hawthorn at Launceston - Lions 4 vs. Hawthorn 4
• Round 15 - Won by 33 points vs. Gold Coast at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. Gold Coast 7
• Round 16 - Won by 12 points vs. North at the Gabba - Lions 2 vs. North 4
• Round 17 - Won by 19 points vs. Melbourne in Darwin - Lions 5 vs. Melbourne 8
• Round 18 - Lost by 9 points vs. Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium - Lions 5 vs. Port 5
• Round 19 - Won by 31 points vs. St.Kilda at the Gabba - Lions 5 vs. Saints 6
• Round 20 - Lost by 23 points vs. Richmond at the MCG - Lions 5 vs. Richmond 1
• Round 21 - Won by 60 points vs. GWS at the Gabba - Lions 3 vs. GWS 7
• Round 22 - Won by 7 points vs. Western Bulldogs at the Gabba - Lions 3 vs. Bulldogs 4
• Round 23 - ? vs. Geelong at Simonds Stadium - Lions 3 vs. Cats 1

- 3 vs. 1 very inexperienced players doesn't look so bad, but unfortunately there is a lot more to it including the Lions having 10 players who have played less than 50 games each to Geelong's 4.
- Geelong also have 14 players with more than 100 games experience to our 7
- Overall they have an average of 137 games each vs. our 84, a huge difference and probably the most experienced side we have faced all year

By categories of games played:
- Less than 25 = Lions 3, Cats 1
- 25 to 50 = Lions 7, Cats 3
- 50 to 100 = Lions 5, Cats 4
- 100 to 200 = Lions 6, Cats 8
- 200+ = Lions 1, Cats 6

 

[Haso]

Came here expecting to see the biggest deficit all year, not disappointed worried about a smashing.

 

[Cousin Jed]

On the other hand, we are unbeaten when playing with less than 4 players with <25 games.

 

[Ironmonger]

By categories of games played:
- Less than 25 = Lions 3, Cats 1
- 25 to 50 = Lions 7, Cats 3
- 50 to 100 = Lions 5, Cats 4
- 100 to 200 = Lions 6, Cats 8
- 200+ = Lions 1, Cats 6

The depressing reality of those stats is that almost half our team have played 50 or fewer games, while almost two thirds of the Cats team have played over 100.

Journalists love to enthuse about how good Geelong's kids are, but it's a lot easier for a youngster with the ball knowing if he kicks to a random teammate he has a 65% chance of hitting a 100+ game veteran.

 

[Lionheart182]

Geelong have 6 200+ game players...wow.

 

[Haso]

Geelong have 6 200+ game players...wow.

On the other hand, the end is nigh. Should be any year now...

 

[dlanod]

Came here expecting to see the biggest deficit all year, not disappointed worried about a smashing.

Looking back over the figures, one week really does stand out.

• Round 6 - Lost by 60 points vs. Sydney at the SCG - Lions 9 vs. Sydney 3

 

[Skoob]

By categories of games played:
- Less than 25 = Lions 3, Cats 1
- 25 to 50 = Lions 7, Cats 3
- 50 to 100 = Lions 5, Cats 4
- 100 to 200 = Lions 6, Cats 8
- 200+ = Lions 1, Cats 6

Yeah, but this is like a finals game.
How do they each stack up for finals experience? Eh, eh?

 

[knaf]

Thanks for putting this together each week LotR. Always informative.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Thanks for putting this together each week LotR. Always informative.

Thread of the year.

Sent from my GT-I9300T using Tapatalk 2

 

[Jorgo]

Thread of the year.

Seconded.

 

[AFLQLD]

Interesting that our worst loss was in round 1- around eleven goals. Let's finish strong today:

if we don't win, a modest loss at worst would be a decent end to the season.

 

[Tairy Greene]

Interesting that our worst loss was in round 1- around eleven goals. Let's finish strong today:

if we don't win, a modest loss at worst would be a decent end to the season.

Start the season with what is considered our worst lose, end the season with what could be considered our "best" lose. So close.

 

[chopperduck]

Champion effort to keep this updated, and very interesting to see how our experience compared to opponents affected the result if the game. Considering we will soon lose 2 200+ gamers, our experience average will still stay low, but once we start getting some 100 gamers supported by some solid 50 gamers we will be a very hard team to play against.

 

[Jorgo]

Thanks for this thread this year Last of the Roys

 

[Last of the Roys]

Thanks everyone for the support.

I think I originally started this thread at the start of 2012 on the back of chopperduck telling everyone how inexperienced we were in 2011. I wasn't sure at the time if it was a valid excuse - that is why I wanted to look at the numbers, but I think he has definitely been proven to be right (that we were and continue to be relatively inexperienced). And I think it is clear that big differences in experience often play a big part in determining the outcome of games.

Depending on what happens to our list in the off-season, it looks like things are finally heading up for the Lions experience wise. Next year I am thinking about concentrating more on players that have played less than 50 games as that might be where any clear differences show up (like they did against Geelong).

 

[Harris Specter]

Fantastic effort LOTR, loved reading your analysis each week, and look forward to reading it next year.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Time to bring this thread back to life for round 1 of the 2014 season. The Lions go into the game with what is a fairly inexperienced line up. The Hawks have a suprising amount of younger players, but still definitely have a clear experience edge.

The most important experience numbers for this match are 11 vs. 7. Half of the Lions team has yet to play 50 games compared to 7 Hawthorn players. Below is a more detailed run-down of each teams games played.

• Less than 25 games played - Lions 6 vs. Hawks 5
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Hawks 2
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 6 vs. Hawks 7
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. Hawks 5
• 200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Hawks 3

Obviously both teams have a number of experienced players out injured or reported. What is suprising for me is that despite our inexperience neither Raines, Bewick, Maguire nor Polkinghorne could get a game.

It should be good experience for our three debutants - I just hope it doesn't get ugly with just an underdone Brown and no other experienced key forward in our team.