Analysis Inside 50s into goals

[VineValerian]

I mean, now that we’ve seen it, it indeed looks obvious. But who could have actually foreseen it, right?

AMAZING!

I'm not sold on it.
Keep bombing it on their heads for me.

 

[Janus]

Results will vary but if we play the method we did in the first 2.5 quarters against Geelong I will be happy.

As I said earlier seeing Charlie lead up and drag defenders out for Todd to lead up behind him was a sight for sore eyes.

So would I.

The issue is that Dixon doesn't have it in him to do that every single game anymore. He used to play that way when Gray was the deep forward for us, if you'll recall - before he broke his leg and ankle in 2018 in that West Coast game when we were up by 30+ points only to lose when he came off the ground.

And because he's got a finite amount of that type of game in him, I don't want him wasting them on sides we should be able to beat with quantity over quality. Need to look at the bigger picture here.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

So would I.

The issue is that Dixon doesn't have it in him to do that every single game anymore. He used to play that way when Gray was the deep forward for us, if you'll recall - before he broke his leg and ankle in 2018 in that West Coast game when we were up by 30+ points only to lose when he came off the ground.

And because he's got a finite amount of that type of game in him, I don't want him wasting them on sides we should be able to beat with quantity over quality. Need to look at the bigger picture here.

I would far rather rest him and let the team play a decent game plan with Lord, Visintini, Scully or even Soldo in that role than lose the opportunity to get better at playing the right game plan.

That's what good teams do. One soldier out, one in.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We lead the league in marks inside 50 per game alongside GWS (14.6). We are second for goal kicking accuracy at 42.8%.

vs Geelong - 14 (12 set shots, 8 goals) - 67%
vs Adelaide - 10 (10 set shots, 5 goals) - 50%
vs St Kilda - 13 (16 set shots, 6 goals) - 37.5% (however, 6 of those shots were outside 50)
vs Collingwood - 14 (12 set shots, 6 goals) - 50%
vs Fremantle - 12 (12 set shots, 6 goals) - 50%
vs Essendon - 12 (12 set shots, 7 goals) - 58%
vs Melbourne - 14 (14 set shots, 6 goals) - 43%
vs Richmond - 17 (20 set shots, 10 goals) - 50%
vs West Coast - 25 (25 set shots, 11 goals) - 44%

Do you mean 2nd last? If not, then 42.8% of what?? ie what's the denominator. and what is its total?

 

[GremioPower]

Set shots from 0-30 degree angles against Geelong: 7 (8 if you count the Rioli handoff) (5 goals, 3 points)

Set shots from 0-30 degree angles against Adelaide: 6 (3 goals, 3 points)

Set shots from 30-60 degree angles against Geelong: 3 (1 goal, 1 behind, 1 miss)

Set shots from 30-60 degree angles against Adelaide: 4 (2 goals, 2 behinds)

Set shots from 60+ degree angles against Geelong: 1 (1 goal)

Set shots from 60+ degree angles against Adelaide: 0

We lead the league in marks inside 50 per game alongside GWS (14.6). We are second for goal kicking accuracy at 42.8%.

vs Geelong - 14 (12 set shots, 8 goals) - 67%
vs Adelaide - 10 (10 set shots, 5 goals) - 50%
vs St Kilda - 13 (16 set shots, 6 goals) - 37.5% (however, 6 of those shots were outside 50)
vs Collingwood - 14 (12 set shots, 6 goals) - 50%
vs Fremantle - 12 (12 set shots, 6 goals) - 50%
vs Essendon - 12 (12 set shots, 7 goals) - 58%
vs Melbourne - 14 (14 set shots, 6 goals) - 43%
vs Richmond - 17 (20 set shots, 10 goals) - 50%
vs West Coast - 25 (25 set shots, 11 goals) - 44%

In other words, we were going along just fine until the Collingwood game which dented our confidence. That transferred over to the St Kilda game where we started taking shots further out instead of working the ball around like we should have.

If people are expecting us to play like we did against Geelong every game, you're deliberately setting yourself up for disappointment. Games where you kick 60-70% accuracy are rare as heck.

The narrow shape of KP’s field, how much could it have contributed for a change in our F50 entries? Let’s not forget that this is the point JHF have made on the radio.

It could be that he was insincere. We didn’t change at all. We’ve played like always, and it was merely a return in confidence.

If we did change, though, I would like to know whether a pitch unsuitable for exploring spaces on the wings or locking the ball in the pockets ended up forcing us to seek a different plan. Would we go back to our old ways in a broader oval?

When is our next actual challenge? This will be answered then.

 

[El_Scorcho]

We are second for goal kicking accuracy at 42.8%.

Second last, and we were third last last year, and 13th in 2022.

This isn't an anomaly.

There are mental and gameplan aspects to it and we can debate what the bigger part of the problem is, but to pretend that we're doing fine is laughable.

 

[El_Scorcho]

There's a couple of things...you've got to go to game style first and foremost - "Are we getting shots that we need to get in the positions that we need to get them?" and "Have we got what we need in front of the ball to allow us to convert more often than not?" At the moment the simple answer is, right here right now, the answer to both questions is "No" to what we've got in front of the ball and "Yes" to "We need to look at the way we move the ball collectively through the ground and not just be pleased that we've got 10 more entries than the opposition, I don't know how many times in a row."

Holy shit is Ken Hinkley reading the BigFooty Port board circa June 2017?

This has been a problem for most of a decade. I'm not sure he gets credit for finally cottoning on to something the least tactically astute Port supporter could have told you 5 years ago. We've lost so many games in a similar manner to how we lost the showdown over the years. Why has it taken him so long to address?

 

[Peninsula Boy]

That's what good teams do. One soldier out, one in.

Usually, you need a well coached team to do that.

 

[Janus]

Holy s**t is Ken Hinkley reading the BigFooty Port board circa June 2017?

This has been a problem for most of a decade. I'm not sure he gets credit for finally cottoning on to something the least tactically astute Port supporter could have told you 5 years ago. We've lost so many games in a similar manner to how we lost the showdown over the years. Why has it taken him so long to address?

In diagnostics, there's a simple rule - if the outcome has changed, go back through the sequence to find the point of difference. Ask yourself who or what has been the consistent factor from 2017 to 2023 that was changed in 2024.

Then think about why multiple inside 50 entries without any kind of forward movement would be appealing - what line out of defence, midfield and attack does it help? What kind of game style does it encourage?

Not saying that the results of the answers to these questions is wrong, but it's just a difference in philosophy as to how important one phase of football is compared to another.

 

[GremioPower]

In diagnostics, there's a simple rule - if the outcome has changed, go back through the sequence to find the point of difference. Ask yourself who or what has been the consistent factor from 2017 to 2023 that was changed in 2024.

Then think about why multiple inside 50 entries without any kind of forward movement would be appealing - what line out of defence, midfield and attack does it help? What kind of game style does it encourage?

Not saying that the results of the answers to these questions is wrong, but it's just a difference in philosophy as to how important one phase of football is compared to another.

I usually have no trouble understanding you. This time, I must admit, I’ve failed. I have no clue on what you are saying.

 

[El_Scorcho]

In diagnostics, there's a simple rule - if the outcome has changed, go back through the sequence to find the point of difference. Ask yourself who or what has been the consistent factor from 2017 to 2023 that was changed in 2024.

Then think about why multiple inside 50 entries without any kind of forward movement would be appealing - what line out of defence, midfield and attack does it help? What kind of game style does it encourage?

Not saying that the results of the answers to these questions is wrong, but it's just a difference in philosophy as to how important one phase of football is compared to another.

Oh absolutely. I think you can see pretty clearly why we do what we do.

Our 2014 era slingshot put the fear of god into teams, so they started playing 2+ in defence. (Good teams initially didn't do this and backed themselves to beat us normally, which is why we beat so many good teams and lost to so many poor teams in that era).

The sheer weight of intercept mark score launches that we conceded in 2015-16 meant that Hinkley developed a pathological fear of rebound scores that still affects our gameplan to this day.

His solution is to play a gameplan that gets the ball inside 50 but prevents rebound scores. We kick the ball to Dixon because he doesn't get outmarked. We're stagnant because movement to generate space is riskier than kicking to a contest. We keep numbers back outside 50 to prevent rebounds. Keep the ball in there long enough and eventually we'll find an avenue to goal.

It's so ingrained that our blue chip midfield will waltz the ball out of a centre clearance, with a 6 on 6 ahead, and we'll still kick a high bomb inside 50 to create a contest instead of being able to generate a target on the lead like an amateur league team would do.

It works against bad teams, but good teams find a way through our high press and score easy goals.

We've experimented with ball movement styles and increased the amount of tall forwards we play in that time to try to make the gameplan more efficient, but the fundamental mission remains to prevent rebounds score launches at all costs and let the rest take care of itself.

It hasn't worked. It doesn't work. We know from plenty of evidence that good teams will just grind you out and we'll end up losing a game with +10 I50s. A tale as old as time for Hinkley's Port Adelaide.

If Ken has finally come to the realisation that this doesn't work, great, but he's been at it since 2017. Slow learner.

Edit: Nothing has changed in 2024 thus far. The Geelong game was unusual, but I'm not willing to say anything has changed after 1 game when we've had the same problem for 8 seasons.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Holy s**t is Ken Hinkley reading the BigFooty Port board circa June 2017?

This has been a problem for most of a decade. I'm not sure he gets credit for finally cottoning on to something the least tactically astute Port supporter could have told you 5 years ago. We've lost so many games in a similar manner to how we lost the showdown over the years. Why has it taken him so long to address?

Anyone with half a brain knows that the overarching issue is accountability and then intransigence.

Hinkley has never been held accountable for loses and so he continues to maintain his terrible gameplan even if the mediocre results and the fans are telling him otherwise.

So what I am basically saying is that Koch allows Ken to lose in an unfettered manner.

 

[Janus]

Oh absolutely. I think you can see pretty clearly why we do what we do.

Our 2014 era slingshot put the fear of god into teams, so they started playing 2+ in defence. (Good teams initially didn't do this and backed themselves to beat us normally, which is why we beat so many good teams and lost to so many poor teams in that era).

The sheer weight of intercept mark score launches that we conceded in 2015-16 meant that Hinkley developed a pathological fear of rebound scores that still affects our gameplan to this day.

His solution is to play a gameplan that gets the ball inside 50 but prevents rebound scores. We kick the ball to Dixon because he doesn't get outmarked. We're stagnant because movement to generate space is riskier than kicking to a contest. We keep numbers back outside 50 to prevent rebounds. Keep the ball in there long enough and eventually we'll find an avenue to goal.

It's so ingrained that our blue chip midfield will waltz the ball out of a centre clearance, with a 6 on 6 ahead, and we'll still kick a high bomb inside 50 to create a contest instead of being able to generate a target on the lead like an amateur league team would do.

It works against bad teams, but good teams find a way through our high press and score easy goals.

We've experimented with ball movement styles and increased the amount of tall forwards we play in that time to try to make the gameplan more efficient, but the fundamental mission remains to prevent rebounds score launches at all costs and let the rest take care of itself.

It hasn't worked. It doesn't work. We know from plenty of evidence that good teams will just grind you out and we'll end up losing a game with +10 I50s. A tale as old as time for Hinkley's Port Adelaide.

If Ken has finally come to the realisation that this doesn't work, great, but he's been at it since 2017. Slow learner.

Edit: Nothing has changed in 2024 thus far. The Geelong game was unusual, but I'm not willing to say anything has changed after 1 game when we've had the same problem for 8 seasons.

This is a bit simplistic.

I would say that it works against teams that have methodical ball movement. For example, we beat Hawthorn in 2015 precisely because we played a gamestyle that limited their ability to move the ball the way they wanted to. Most 'bad' teams are being instructed by their coaches to retain the possession of the ball at all costs because most scores are generated by turnover, so they will play safe football and therefore play into the press.

However, against teams that employ a faster and more aggressive style, it falls down because it literally encourages flooding which allows for space out the back. And when you play a team like Adelaide, which employs no less than four intercept marking tall defenders, they are actively looking for teams to play a forward press against them. Teams beat them by exposing their defensive lack of mobility.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with playing a forward press style. If we had kicked half of the 9 goals that we missed in general play against Adelaide in the same way we kicked 50% against Geelong, they wouldn't have been able to get the ball behind us as freely and we would have won. The main difference between the two games is that against Geelong we played a gain territory style that actively avoided their intercept markers like Stewart, De Koning and Kolodjasnij...and we kept Rioli locked in the 50m arc to take advantage of that.

This is more similar to the style we played in 2017, where Dixon kicked 49 goals and Robbie Gray kicked 47. We should be keeping Rioli close to goal as much as possible - not only is he our best threat on the ground, he's also our best defensive forward.

P.S. We were 10th for score launches and 7th for opposition score launches in 2015, after being 2nd for score launches and 3rd for opposition score launches in 2014.

In 2017, we were 2nd for score launches and 3rd for opposition score launches. In 2020, we were 3rd for score launches and 2nd for opposition score launches.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

The main difference between the two games is that against Geelong we played a gain territory style that actively avoided their intercept markers like Stewart, De Koning and Kolodjasnij.

Which is exactly what many on here have been calling for for years.

There is no problem with sometimes playing the bomb it long to Dixon style when forced to or the opposition has tall defensive weaknesses.

Having it as plan A against teams/coaches it has never worked against and refusing to entertain plan B or C has been maddening.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[El_Scorcho]

This is more similar to the style we played in 2017, where Dixon kicked 49 goals and Robbie Gray kicked 47. We should be keeping Rioli close to goal as much as possible - not only is he our best threat on the ground, he's also our best defensive forward.

P.S. We were 10th for score launches and 7th for opposition score launches in 2015, after being 2nd for score launches and 3rd for opposition score launches in 2014.

In 2017, we were 2nd for score launches and 3rd for opposition score launches. In 2020, we were 3rd for score launches and 2nd for opposition score launches.

Agree generally with your post, but I'll note that 2017 was built on an easy draw. Like every year since, we beat up shit teams and lost to anyone remotely good.

We went 2-8 against the other top 8 sides. One of those wins was R1 against Sydney who lost their first 6, and the other was against West Coast who made the 8 by 0.5%.

The coach got an extension for that performance btw. Boggles the mind.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Chad in SEN today, itd available on the podcast on the app.

Dillon: "were Charlie's leading patterns a little bit different to create more space"?

Chad: "yeah they were, and it wasn't just Charlie. Over the last couple of weeks we fell into the trap of bombing long and not really playing to the strengths and the weapons that we have on that team. With the 4 talls in that forward line we've got to be mobile, we've got to be hitting up at the ball more often. And that includes Charlie who across his career has been more of a stand and deliver pkayer but I thought he led at the right time last week, presented at the kicker really well and if he didn't get used, often the guy behind him got used."

So good to hear, even if the "last few weeks" is a massive understatement.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[VineValerian]

Chad in SEN today, itd available on the podcast on the app.

Dillon: "were Charlie's leading patterns a little bit different to create more space"?

Chad: "yeah they were, and it wasn't just Charlie. Over the last couple of weeks we fell into the trap of bombing long and not really playing to the strengths and the weapons that we have on that team. With the 4 talls in that forward line we've got to be mobile, we've got to be hitting up at the ball more often. And that includes Charlie who across his career has been more of a stand and deliver pkayer but I thought he led at the right time last week, presented at the kicker really well and if he didn't get used, often the guy behind him got used."

So good to hear, even if the "last few weeks" is a massive understatement.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Ahh. Chaddles.

Gives Jay Schulz a bake "He was a good kick for goal, but doesn't mean he's a good kicking coach" - sez the man entrusted to improve our goalkicking across the squad!!!

Translated means: "Don't tell me that I don't have a clue. This is my patch now, so just **** off anyone else. FIGJAM".

 

[Peninsula Boy]

So good to hear, even if the "last few weeks" is a massive understatement.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

The last few weeks... a massive understatement. What on God's green Earth?

Its like saying Adriana Lima is a bit of a good sort.

Chad, lay off the Kenny kool aid, mate.

 

[El_Scorcho]

You know, our forwardline sort of has been crying out for a dumbass to suggest a baby's first forward strategy.

It's possible that a few psuedointellectual line coaches overrating their own ideas and the insular nature of our club always promoting from within is the reason that our obviously non-functional forward strategy has never been properly challenged.

What might just save Port Power is Chad Cornes staying up for 3 days and nights, furiously studying (mostly the dictionary, Aussie Rules for Dummies and bodybuilding youtube videos) and finally having a Eureka moment, sprinting into the club at 7am and sweeping the empty pepsi cans and tippy bird off of Ken's desk and unfurling a roll of butcher's paper with his plan for the forwards to attempt to lead into space.

 

[GremioPower]

So good to hear, even if the "last few weeks" is a massive understatement.

The last few 400 weeks…

 

[Enviable Tradition]

You know, our forwardline sort of has been crying out for a dumbass to suggest a baby's first forward strategy.

It's possible that a few psuedointellectual line coaches overrating their own ideas and the insular nature of our club always promoting from within is the reason that our obviously non-functional forward strategy has never been properly challenged.

What might just save Port Power is Chad Cornes staying up for 3 days and nights, furiously studying (mostly the dictionary, Aussie Rules for Dummies and bodybuilding youtube videos) and finally having a Eureka moment, sprinting into the club at 7am and sweeping the empty pepsi cans and tippy bird off of Ken's desk and unfurling a roll of butcher's paper with his plan for the forwards to attempt to lead into space.

Maybe Chad discovering an effective i50 game plan via BigFooty is actually what saves Ports game plan lol.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Can't complain about Zak's big bomb inside 50 in the dying seconds on Sunday.

According to xScore DBJ's soccer expected score was 2.23.


AFLxScore
@AFLxScore

#AFLPowerHawks Final xScores:
PORT 78 from expected 68.9 (+2 rushed)
HAW 78 from expected 78.6 (+1 rushed)

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Top 3 inside 50 targets 2024

Target acquired: Who your club aims for inside 50

Sarah Black takes a look at every club's targets inside 50, and how each has changed in recent seasons

www.afl.com.au

Yartapuulti has had a nearly even split between Charlie Dixon

22

Charlie Dixon

Age

35

Ht

200cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

4.7

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.6

5star

D

10.5

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.5

2star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

G

2.5

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

and Todd Marshall

4

Todd Marshall

Age

27

Ht

198cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.0

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

2.5

2star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

8.9

2star

K

7.1

3star

HB

1.8

1star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.0

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.6

5star

over the past two years, with the returning Mitch Georgiades

19

Mitch Georgiades

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

G

2.0

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

G

2.0

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

G

2.0

5star

jumping Jeremy Finlayson

11

Jeremy Finlayson

Age

30

Ht

197cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.5

3star

K

9.9

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.4

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.0

1star

K

7.0

3star

HB

0.0

1star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

18.4

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

5.8

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.0

1star

for third this year, to form the same trio as 2022.

Yartapuulti: Charlie Dixon

22

Charlie Dixon

Age

35

Ht

200cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

4.7

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.6

5star

D

10.5

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.5

2star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

G

2.5

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

(76), Todd Marshall

4

Todd Marshall

Age

27

Ht

198cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.0

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

2.5

2star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

8.9

2star

K

7.1

3star

HB

1.8

1star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.0

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.6

5star

(74), Mitch Georgiades

19

Mitch Georgiades

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

G

2.0

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

G

2.0

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

G

2.0

5star

(42)

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Dixon....... 23 games in those 2 seasons
Marshall.... 31 games
Georgiades 9 games

Those totals were 2024 numbers.

So Dixon was targeted 76 times in 9 games = 8.4 times per game

Marshall 74 times in 10 games = 7.4 times per game

Georgiades 42 times in 7 games = 6 times per game.

That's a far more even split than I imagined. I wonder how much the last 2 weeks has changed that.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Those totals were 2024 numbers.

So Dixon was targeted 76 times in 9 games = 8.4 times per game

Marshall 74 times in 10 games = 7.4 times per game

Georgiades 42 times in 7 games = 6 times per game.

That's a far more even split than I imagined. I wonder how much the last 2 weeks has changed that.

I guess I should have read the article or maybe just Ford's post a bit closer and not assume.