Analysis Interview with Binuk Kodiuwakku - AFC's player analytics expert

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The movie Moneyball was about this sort of thing

Using stats to identify the value of a player vs the old guard who were subjective in liking a certain type of player

Great work, thanks
 
Patriots hired a team from MIT to run their department”

Lol of course they did
Just highlights how amateur Australian sports almost are compared to overseas. We have one bloke doing this work for us, Liverpool have 6 guys with PHD's leading their department and the Patriots go to MIT to hire a bunch of people.
 

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Just highlights how amateur Australian sports almost are compared to overseas. We have one bloke doing this work for us, Liverpool have 6 guys with PHD's leading their department and the Patriots go to MIT to hire a bunch of people.

So is our bloke included in the soft coaching cap? Could we throw more money at it if we wanted to?

Seems a better investment than CM
 
I big fan of it measuring the team and the players value, but a sceptic for drafting in the AFL. In the USA the players are fully developed, here they are still growing. The numbers would have you pick Powell Pepper over Nat Fyfe by a long way, because one was near his peak already and the other was still growing into their body.
 
Says one team blatantly told him they don't use, or value analytics. Still says they were valuable to talk to as you can use their drafting/recruiting to backup how valuable analytics can be. Won't name the team, but says they have a very poor record in both drafting and recruiting.

I bet it's the Knicks.
 
I big fan of it measuring the team and the players value, but a sceptic for drafting in the AFL. In the USA the players are fully developed, here they are still growing. The numbers would have you pick Powell Pepper over Nat Fyfe by a long way, because one was near his peak already and the other was still growing into their body.

Which was one of the key points of the discussion. You never solely rely on either the data/numbers, but at the same time, the numbers might highlight something that you would otherwise miss. At the end of the day Hamish has the final say, the numbers are used as a discussion point, to create discussion, to ensure we're not missing/overlooking anything.

You're a fool if you're ruled by the numbers, but at the same time you're a fool if you don't consider what they may be saying.
 

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I wonder how much we use this not only for drafting/trading but in team selection

I’d say not much as this 1 guys scope is already quite broad and it’s require probably different formulas (even for each role) be developed to the recruiting one.

It’s probably an area that could grow into though particularly when he speaks of removing bias etc. it could highlight bias of coaches and help them see players differently. Could also be used when there is disagreement on selections to add in an objective tie breaker of sorts.

Could also be used to track players form and assist in those nan conversations a few of our guys have had issue with.

I’d love to know the kind of formula used though because our game is so dynamic with so many different roles it makes it harder than say basketball where there’s 5 guys on a court with pretty defined roles. I’d say the combination of less money (than US sport or soccer) plus harder game to apply analytics to is a clear reason we are so far behind the other sports compared to
 
describing R as 'excel on steroids' is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard. but otherwise an interesting interview.
 
Who would have though of using data to help making decisions! The AFL has dabbled in this with the draft combine, but that would be considered a single data point, so also good to see we are leading the way.

I wonder if he can do anything about our salary cap strategy with his approach.
 
Things like if we bid on Thomas how does that change the rest of the domino's.
If we don't bid on Briggs what's it worth to GWS.
Where are Carlton likely to finish in 2019 to evaluate the pick swap potential.
"Where are Carlton likely to finish in 2019 to evaluate the pick swap potential."
We didn't need much data to answer that one!
 
Calculating what sort of player they would get for McGovern would have been very interesting.
He would have been running the numbers of pick 8, 13 and 16 for pick 1 before the draft.
Jones, McHenry and ?? vs Rankine or Lukosious.
I wonder how and if he's evaluating which players to trade and their value.


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This is a very different table set up to the others that we have seen. Most were hardly looking at computers. Reidy looks like he's just sitting there waiting for SOS to call
 
I don’t understand what value he is adding though. Like what decisions would get changed from his input.
One of the easiest examples is that basic stat analysis is relatively quick and easy to apply to a large number of players.

There may then be several players on nobody's radar that are flagged as having potential and targeted for scouting. Many will be quickly crossed off, but this is where a lot of rookies or "Hamish specials" could be identified.

Early ID of the "WTF?" picks that turn out to be gems.
 
This is a very different table set up to the others that we have seen. Most were hardly looking at computers. Reidy looks like he's just sitting there waiting for SOS to call

When the phone rang Reidy would move the phone away to the other wall, where the camera couldn't see him. I noticed the set up on the night being vastly different to every other club.
 
When the phone rang Reidy would move the phone away to the other wall, where the camera couldn't see him. I noticed the set up on the night being vastly different to every other club.
Is there any footage of us in the night? I'm really interest to see it but want it to stay confidential at the same time
 
One of the easiest examples is that basic stat analysis is relatively quick and easy to apply to a large number of players.

There may then be several players on nobody's radar that are flagged as having potential and targeted for scouting. Many will be quickly crossed off, but this is where a lot of rookies or "Hamish specials" could be identified.

Early ID of the "WTF?" picks that turn out to be gems.
This reminds me of something I heard on a podcast last week where apparently Oscar Macinerny was tipped off to Bris based on some lower level (? Val reserves) form by a connection to the recruiter who was coaching there. They then watched him closely at that level. By the time he was promoted to the higher level and was then on the radar of other clubs they already had a good base opinion with the jump able to solidify that rather than start from there.

It was said the fact they had seen him for longer rather than just a short patch late year enabled them to have more confidence in picking him than other clubs may have.

Similar could be said for Stewart st Geelong and Scarlett’s coaching recommendation.

If analytics puts some of these off the radar players on our sights to at least run the eye test over earlier than otherwise then it can only be a good thing
 

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