Iran Conflict 2019 - ??

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But they are still dealing with the WMD Iraq blowback domestically and internationally.

As with Vietnam, it takes a generation to ignore the mistakes of the past for this scale of invasion

Putin stopped them in Syria. Now they are doubling down.

The first casualty of war is truth.
 

Sydneyfan

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Why would Iran target an oil tanker bound for Japan whilst the Japanese PM is in Tehran for talks? What exactly does Iran have to gain from such a provocative act? As it definitely has plenty to lose …

This stinks to high heavens for mine and the more I read about the more sloppy & messy it comes across, Whoever did this - and those who vetoed it - either think the general populace have entirely lost their ability to critically think, will swallow anything the mainstream tells them, or don’t give a rats either way.

Or otherwise, are ‘allies’ who’ve decided to take the lead bigger the consequences.

Either way, I’m positive it wasn’t Iran. The US have not been secretive in their hard-on against Tehran since the fall of the Shah and their bedfellows in Israel, Saudi Arabia & UAE are ideological enemies of Iran hellbent on crushing the largest Shi’ite power & raping its resources.
 
Putin stopped them in Syria. Now they are doubling down.

The first casualty of war is truth.

Fwiw the post above touched on the key issues for me. I don't think the USA is dumb enough to do this, but at the same time it makes no sense for Iran to be doing it (this assumes however both Iran and the USA are thinking rationally)

His thought on the Saudis is actually a decent one. As we saw with khashoggi, MBS has all the delicacy of a 15 year old boy after 15 red bulls and half a dozen Viagra. This is dopey enough it could be the Saudis trying to drag the USA into their stupid war
 

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The Passenger

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So the footage is supposed to show an Iranian boat retrieving an unexploded mine...

Why would Iran (or anyone for that matter) bother to do that?
 
Fwiw the post above touched on the key issues for me. I don't think the USA is dumb enough to do this, but at the same time it makes no sense for Iran to be doing it (this assumes however both Iran and the USA are thinking rationally)

His thought on the Saudis is actually a decent one. As we saw with khashoggi, MBS has all the delicacy of a 15 year old boy after 15 red bulls and half a dozen Viagra. This is dopey enough it could be the Saudis trying to drag the USA into their stupid war

You need to reasses, they most certainly are.

Trump and the Saudis and Israelis are working hand in hand on this.

Trump has sold US foreign policy - the Israelis via Sheldon Adelson funding his re-election, the Saudis via straight up cash enriching the family business.
 
So the footage is supposed to show an Iranian boat retrieving an unexploded mine...

Why would Iran (or anyone for that matter) bother to do that?

Because blah blah.

They aren't bothering to put much time and effort into the lie this time, unlike 2002-03.

What they plan to do to Iran is what the Israelis do to Gaza every few years - "mow the lawn" they call it.

A sustained, maybe two week bombing campaign, that sets Iran back a decade, or five years. Repeat every decade or five years as Israel and the Gulf advance and Iran has to struggle to get back to where it was.

They think they won't need troops on the ground, they think they can just launch an air war and get away with it.

Maybe they can, I don't think it will be as easy or cost-free as they do. But hey.

Israel never gets any genuine cost to its routine Gazan war crimes. Saudi suffers no real costs for its Yemeni and Khasshogi crimes.

Why would they think Iran will be any different?
 
Trump now appears to realise that the train he boarded is not heading to a glorious summit, but a potentially devastating conflict in the Gulf, and that some of his own officials, notably the national security adviser, John Bolton, are quite content – enthusiastic, even – to keep driving in that direction. Trump wants to get off and make a deal, but the Abe mission suggests he has no idea how to.

Iran, meanwhile, has found its strongest point of leverage – Trump’s fears about his chances of re-election against the backdrop of a new war in the Middle East. To play on those fears is a gamble with very high risks. Every cycle of escalation brings the region closer to a point where the slide towards war goes beyond anyone’s control.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/14/shinzo-abe-iran-ayatollah-talks-analysis-trump

Iranians have mastered "grayzone" war in the last decade, they have lots of ways they can squeeze Trump in the lead up to the election.

US troops coming home in body bags with Middle Eastern dust on them ruins him.

People forget how much of his appeal was his anti-war stance, and how much Hilary's bomb-loving ways worked against her.
 

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If the United States and its coalition of the swilling want to believe that Iran bombed those tankers with 'limpet mines' then Iran WILL have bombed those tankers with 'limpet mines'. What they say becomes the new reality on which sanctions, economic strangulation and eventual war are waged.

The actual truth? It means nothing and it is nothing.
 
If the United States and its coalition of the swilling want to believe that Iran bombed those tankers with 'limpet mines' then Iran WILL have bombed those tankers with 'limpet mines'. What they say becomes the new reality on which sanctions, economic strangulation and eventual war are waged.

The actual truth? It means nothing and it is nothing.

Exactly this - and you either choose to go along with that or not.

No guesses which way Morrison will go.
 
I just read a NYT editorial comment. They are desperately seeking Trump to deliver them a Colin-Powell-at-the-UN moment....so they can believe!!

Right now even the NYT is having a hard time believing Trump and Bolton.

And here's the prob: Trump don't got no Colin Powell! lol

Just a lot of direputable quislings.

Yep, they WANT another war, especially with Mother of all Evil Iran.
 
Sep 29, 2009
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They were planting a bomb??!?!?!

So the Americans are filming it, but not warning the ship. The ship's owners are not saying they were warned there were Iranian planting bombs. Did the American sailors just take pics?
Oooops. Wrong, Reg. This was supposed to be taken "several hours" after the explosion.

That makes it worserer! The US posted photos of the holes in broad daylight. Attack happened at 5pm. How come no pics of the mine stuck on the ship? How come the US navy made no attempt to intercept?
 
They were planting a bomb??!?!?!

So the Americans are filming it, but not warning the ship. The ship's owners are not saying they were warned there were Iranian planting bombs. Did the American sailors just take pics?
Its not sailors taking the pictures from a US ship, its a drone taking pictures from a distance providing feed probably back to an operational centre in the US.
 
Its not sailors taking the pictures from a US ship, its a drone taking pictures from a distance providing feed probably back to an operational centre in the US.

Drone or satellite?
 
Drone or satellite?
A bit of both, the initial pictures we see are a combination of drone/satellite. The vessels were supposedly hit in UAE waters, if the crew abandonded the vessels or they drifted into or near to Iranian waters, then the US navy would have potentially held back from directly getting involved and entering Irainian waters.
 
A bit of both, the initial pictures we see are a combination of drone/satellite. The vessels were supposedly hit in UAE waters, if the crew abandonded the vessels or they drifted into or near to Iranian waters, then the US navy would have potentially held back from directly getting involved and entering Irainian waters.

I have been of late reading Fisk's reportage from the Iran v Iraq War, notably the Tanker War and the truly horrific events with the USS Vincennes murdering hundreds of Iranians.

Dear God if if it gets truly HOT thousands of US sailors will die in that Persian lake.
 
I have been of late reading Fisk's reportage from the Iran v Iraq War, notably the Tanker War and the truly horrific events with the USS Vincennes murdering hundreds of Iranians.

Dear God if if it gets truly HOT thousands of US sailors will die in that Persian lake.
We have ADF assets in the area aswell, as a matter of fact we have RAN members seconded to the UK Maritime Control centre for the ME based in Dubai year round.

If we go hot with Iran, the Persian gulf would be shut and alternative sources of oil would have to be found. The straits are a natural choke point for shipping, it would only take a few mines to be released into water, or a few succesfull SSM hits on merchant tankers to close the straits.
 
We have ADF assets in the area aswell, as a matter of fact we have RAN members seconded to the UK Maritime Control centre for the ME based in Dubai year round.

If we go hot with Iran, the Persian gulf would be shut and alternative sources of oil would have to be found. The straits are a natural choke point for shipping, it would only take a few mines to be released into water, or a few succesfull SSM hits on merchant tankers to close the straits.

Oh yeah, and the Iranians WILL hit naval surface assets too, and they will sink them.

Swarm speedboat attacks (some suicide), short range missile attacks, Sunburns, the whole bonanza.

Imagen Trump having to conduct a media conference where he announces a number of capital ships from the Fifth Fleet have been sunk with the loss of most on baord.
 
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