Iran vs Saudi Arabia

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Bomberboyokay

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Saudi Arabia has given Iranian diplomats two days to leave the country, amid a row over the Saudi execution of a top Shia Muslim cleric.

The Saudi government announced on Sunday that it had broken off diplomatic ties with Iran.

Iran has accused Saudi Arabia of stoking tension in the region.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are the major Sunni and Shia powers in the region respectively and back opposing sides in the conflicts in Syria and Yemen.

The US has appealed for calm, calling for continued diplomatic engagement.

Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and 46 others were executed on Saturday after being convicted of terror-related offences.

Late on Sunday, police came under heavy gunfire in his home town of Awamiya in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, leaving one civilian dead and a child injured, the Saudi Press Agency said.

Security forces are still hunting the attackers, calling the incident a "terrorist" act, a police spokesman was quoted as saying.

Shia Muslims have complained of marginalisation in Eastern Province.

'Interference'

Saudi Arabia announced it was severing diplomatic relations with Iran after demonstrators stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and late on Sunday gave Iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave.

It has also recalled its diplomats from Tehran.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Saudi Arabia would not let Iran undermine its security, accusing it of having "distributed weapons and planted terrorist cells in the region".

"Iran's history is full of negative interference and hostility in Arab issues, and it is always accompanied by destruction," he told a news conference.

US state department spokesman John Kirby said: "We will continue to urge leaders across the region to take affirmative steps to calm tensions".

"We believe that diplomatic engagement and direct conversations remain essential," he said.

'Martyr'

Earlier, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that the Sunni Muslim kingdom would face "divine revenge" for the execution - an act which also angered Shia Muslims elsewhere in the Middle East.

Ayatollah Khamenei called Sheikh Nimr a "martyr" who had acted peacefully.

Protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran late on Saturday, setting fire to the building before being driven back by police. The Saudi foreign ministry said none of its diplomats had been harmed in the incident.

Iran on Monday accused Saudi Arabia of using the embassy incident to provoke further regional tension, Iranian state TV reported.

It quoted a foreign ministry spokesman as saying: "Saudi Arabia sees its life in pursuit of crises and confrontations and attempts to resolve all of its internal problems by exporting them to the outside."

Relations between the countries have been strained over various issues in recent decades, including Iran's nuclear programme and deaths of Iranians at the Hajj pilgrimage in 1987 and again in 2015.

Diplomatic ties were severed between 1988 and 1991.

Most of the 47 people executed by Saudi Arabia were Sunnis convicted of involvement in al-Qaeda-linked terror attacks over the last decade.

Sheikh Nimr was involved in anti-government protests that erupted in Saudi Arabia in the wake of the Arab Spring, up to his arrest in 2012.

The execution also sparked protests in Iraq, Bahrain and several other countries.

Analysis: Lyse Doucet, BBC chief international correspondent

A diplomatic rupture between the major Sunni and Shia powers in the region will resonate across the Middle East, where they back opposing sides in many destructive wars and simmering conflicts.

Players are already lining up along sectarian lines to support either Tehran or Riyadh.

Last year had ended with a bit of hope that talks on ending Yemen's strife had, at least, begun. Syria was to follow this month. It looks an awful lot harder now.

In October Saudi sources told me they only dropped their opposition to Iran's presence at Syria talks after the US persuaded them to test Tehran's commitment. But they doubt Iran will do a deal, and see it as key source of regional instability.

On the other side, Iranian officials don't hide their contempt for the Saudi system and its support for Islamist groups. There's been barely-concealed anger for months. Now it's boiled over.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35219282
 

jumpinjimmy

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Back in the day when Unions had nuts there would have been a mass boycott of 'Salafist' Arabia...In it's absence I conduct my own. The Yanks and Poms have integrated the swine (pun intended) state into the MIC so completely that they couldn't disentangle even if they wanted to.

Nimr al-Nimr seemed to be open to secular politics and democracy and projected a less dogmatic form of Islam in general....this is why he was murdered. Look for Iran to adopt the 'Anonymous' slogan (and action) in Yemen big time....."Expect Us".

Ps: Thanks for the thread:thumbsu:
 
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Good for Israel.

The rupture between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have the effect of prolonging the Syrian War and keeping Hezbollah from conducting significant operations on Israel's northern border.

Iran – when making its decisions including acting against Israel, by supplying Hezbollah with weaponry for example – will now have to take into policy consideration their dispute with Saudi Arabia.
 

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MaddAdam

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Good for Israel.

The rupture between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have the effect of prolonging the Syrian War and keeping Hezbollah from conducting significant operations on Israel's northern border.

Iran – when making its decisions including acting against Israel, by supplying Hezbollah with weaponry for example – will now have to take into policy consideration their dispute with Saudi Arabia.

From what I understand the Israeli military is very concerned about Hezbollah's role in Syria.

One thing Hezbollah doesn't lack is manpower - the birthrate for Lebanese Shia is about 9-10 per woman.

Interestingly, the only comparable rate in the region is Orthodox Jews, who not only don't serve in the IDF, but are now attacking it. And the non-Orthodox Israelis are less and less keen on serving, many head overseas instead.

Israel hasn't fought and won a conclusive ground war since 1973.

Its invasion of Lebanon saw it withdraw under fire from Hezbollah. In 2006 is destroyed Lebanon's infrastructure from the air, but was beaten to a standstill by Hezbollah commanos on the ground.

Now Hezbollah has four years experience of fighting in one of the most brutal conflicts since WWII, that has seen the use of pretty much all weapons short of nukes. Hezbollah is gaining huge amounts of experience and battle sharpening. They are taking on rebel units equipped with everything but Apaches (and the Israelis know they have Iglas that can shoot down the Apaches anyway) that they would face in fighting the IDF.

In the meantime, the IDF shoots kids throwing stones and hasn't been in real conflict since well, the last time it got a bloody nose off Hezbollah.

The war in Syria will end at some point and when it does, Israel is going to face a far more empowered Hezbollah on its border than beforehand.
 

MaddAdam

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More on topic, the House of Saud are fomenting this war to try and guarantee its own survival. All the metrics are against it hanging on any other way. Their days are numbered and they know it.

The question really is does it get overthrown by the jihadists, or does it get overthrown by an educated internet connected mass of young people in a "Riyadh Spring" affair?
 
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Its invasion of Lebanon saw it withdraw under fire from Hezbollah. In 2006 is destroyed Lebanon's infrastructure from the air, but was beaten to a standstill by Hezbollah commanos on the ground.

Despite the mistakes the Israelis made, some might argue that Israel had a strategic victory in 2006.

While the conflict failed to disarm Hezbollah, there was a large number of Hezbollah fighters killed in the war, As well there was a post-war replacement of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was also much more economically damaged by the war than Israel was.

The war in Syria will end at some point and when it does, Israel is going to face a far more empowered Hezbollah on its border than beforehand.

That may be so, but until then Hezbollah's main focus is the war in Syria. Hezbollah's losses in the Syrian War aren't light with some sources suggesting up to 2,000 (perhaps up to a quarter of its total forces) have been killed. Hezbollah does not want to find itself in a conflict with Israel on the border, forced to open up a second front in addition to its ongoing role in the Syrian conflict. Israel doesn't want to be drawn into the Syrian conflict either.
 

MaddAdam

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Despite the mistakes the Israelis made, some might argue that Israel had a strategic victory in 2006.

While the conflict failed to disarm Hezbollah, there was a large number of Hezbollah fighters killed in the war, As well there was a post-war replacement of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was also much more economically damaged by the war than Israel was.



That may be so, but until then Hezbollah's main focus is the war in Syria. Hezbollah's losses in the Syrian War aren't light with some sources suggesting up to 2,000 (perhaps up to a quarter of its total forces) have been killed. Hezbollah does not want to find itself in a conflict with Israel on the border, forced to open up a second front in addition to its ongoing role in the Syrian conflict. Israel doesn't want to be drawn into the Syrian conflict either.

As I said, losses dont matter to Hezbollah. That's why they have a cult of suicidal martyrdom beyond the Sunni jihadists.

The "corporate learning" Hezbollah is getting in Syria is invaluable. Where is Israel getting the battle hardening it needs?

Israel suffered a massive strategic loss in 2006. Arab commandos stood and fought against the IDF on the ground and held their ground, using Kornets to take out Merkavas.

The IDF is like Essendon. In a world of s**t but still believing its own crap about past glory.
 
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As I said, losses dont matter to Hezbollah. That's why they have a cult of suicidal martyrdom beyond the Sunni jihadists.

The "corporate learning" Hezbollah is getting in Syria is invaluable. Where is Israel getting the battle hardening it needs?

Israel suffered a massive strategic loss in 2006. Arab commandos stood and fought against the IDF on the ground and held their ground, using Kornets to take out Merkavas.

Quite a few disagree with you that Hezbollah strategically won the war including: John Keegan British military historian and journalist, Charles Krauthammer American Pulitzer Prize winning syndicated columnist, author and political commentator, Michael Young, opinion page editor at the Lebanese Daily Star, Edward Luttwak, a Romanian military strategist, political scientist and historian, Brendan Simms, Irish historian and Professor of the History of International Relations in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge and journalist Michael Totten who has reported from the Middle East, the Balkans, Cuba, Vietnam, and the Caucasus for some years.

Totten's words about the 2006 war collectively sums their opinions quite succinctly. "Hezbollah lost and Hezbollah knows it."
 

MaddAdam

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Quite a few disagree with you that Hezbollah strategically won the war including: John Keegan British military historian and journalist, Charles Krauthammer American Pulitzer Prize winning syndicated columnist, author and political commentator, Michael Young, opinion page editor at the Lebanese Daily Star, Edward Luttwak, a Romanian military strategist, political scientist and historian, Brendan Simms, Irish historian and Professor of the History of International Relations in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge and journalist Michael Totten who has reported from the Middle East, the Balkans, Cuba, Vietnam, and the Caucasus for some years.

Totten's words about the 2006 war collectively sums their opinions quite succinctly. "Hezbollah lost and Hezbollah knows it."

This same Krauthammer?

Krauthammer was one of the leading boosters of the Iraq war. He argued in his February 1, 2002, Washington Post column that an invasion of Iraq would lead to the spread of democracy throughout the Middle East:

“Overthrowing neighbouring radical regimes shows the fragility of dictatorship, challenges the mullahs’ mandate from heaven and thus encourages disaffected Iranians to rise. First, Afghanistan to the east. Next, Iraq to the west”.

As the Iraq war got into full swing, Krauthammer ridiculed a New York Times article proposing that coalition forces might have to contend with guerrilla fighters in Iraq. He initially hailed the Iraq conflict as “the Three Week War”; and was sarcastically dismissive when those guerrillas whose existence he had found so improbable actually materialized. When U.S. reconstruction efforts were revealed to be amateurish, Krauthammer concluded a 2003 column with the suggestion that if, “in a year or two we are able to leave behind a stable, friendly government, we will have succeeded. If not, we will have failed. And all the geniuses will be vindicated.”

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/...spected-when-he-s-been-wrong-about-everything

Keegan is an old drunk who knows about Arnhem and the Battle of El Alamein but stuff all about now.

Luttwak is a psychopathy Mossad agent.

And for every Simms and Totten there's a bunch of people who know exactly what it meant that Hezbollah commandos armed with the latest Russian anti-tank weapons stopped the Merkavas from getting to the Litani.
 

MaddAdam

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So Roylion do you have anyone who isn't utterly lacking in credibility to back up your claim?

Luttwak's kids served in the IDF ffs, of course he's going to support them.
 

jumpinjimmy

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More on topic, the House of Saud are fomenting this war to try and guarantee its own survival. All the metrics are against it hanging on any other way. Their days are numbered and they know it.

The question really is does it get overthrown by the jihadists, or does it get overthrown by an educated internet connected mass of young people in a "Riyadh Spring" affair?
I can't show any socio-political 'algorithm' to support this instinct, but, my gut tells me that If reason survives after any conflagration it inevitably gives birth to moderation. My bet is a "Riyadh Spring"....with Russia playing the part that the US has historically undertaken.
 

MaddAdam

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I can't show any socio-political 'algorithm' to support this instinct, but, my gut tells me that If reason survives after any conflagration it inevitably gives birth to moderation. My bet is a "Riyadh Spring"....with Russia playing the part that the US has historically undertaken.

Yep, me too.
 

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So Roylion do you have anyone who isn't utterly lacking in credibility to back up your claim? .

My claim?

I said,

“While the conflict failed to disarm Hezbollah, there was a large number of Hezbollah fighters killed in the war, As well there was a post-war replacement of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was also much more economically damaged by the war than Israel was.”

All this is correct, although Hezbollah has since 2006 largely re-established itself in southern Lebanon but have heavily involved themselves in the Syrian War, taking their focus away from Israel.

While certainly there wasn't the rapid overwhelming victory for Israel that has occurred in previous wars, the 2006 war wasn't a massive defeat for Israel either, which is the point I'm making. Why?

Hezbollah had suffered heavier losses on the ground with between 600-800 Hezbollah fighters killed compared with 119 IDF personnel. Certainly Hezbollah failed to inflict massive losses on the IDF and to kill large numbers of Israelis in rocket attacks. In terms of Israeli equipment loss due to Hezbollah missiles, the Israelis lost five Merkava tanks and 1 transport helicopter.

The disputed Sheaba Farms remained in Israeli hands.

Northern Ghajar on the Lebanese side of the Lebanon-Israeli border was occupied by Israel and remains in Israeli control.

Israel did have some important successes at the tactical level, particularly in destroying medium and long-range rockets in the initial days of the war and in preventing the launch of most surviving systems during the course of the war

A cease-fire came into effect before Israel could completely dislodge Hezbollah from its positions, after a concerted ground offensive . The Israelis had planned to move up to the Litani River in a concerted ground offensive (which was about 29 km into southern Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah rocket launchers, particularly short range ones, that the air force had failed to take out). They launched the Litani Offensive on 11th August. and within two days had advanced 12 km into southern Lebanon. The day after (on the 14th), a ceasefire came into effect. Israel agreed to ceasefire for a number of reasons, including adverse domestic public pressure due to the rising casualty rate and international pressure. However had the ceasefire not taken effect, the Israelis could have pushed significantly into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah knew this too and were happy to use the ceasefire to re-group.

That’s not to say the Israelis had difficulties and made mistakes during the war. They did. The Israelis were over-reliant on their perceived capabilities of their airforce and despite having air superiority, failed to take out quite a few rockets particularly the short range rocket launchers. Hezbollah was well entrenched, the terrain was difficult and the reservists that were initially used before the Litani Offensive was launched were not as well trained as they might have been. Certainly in the initial stages of the war before the Litani Offensive) the IDF entered southern Lebanon on 17th July undermanned and ill-prepared. In those early days, the reservists of the IDF had a tremendous challenge ahead of it: take southern Lebanon with limited troops and dislodge a well-prepared and entrenched Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's entrenched infrastructure along Israel's border was certainly damaged by the war and was not easily rebuilt. The Lebanese Army deployed 15,000 soldiers, backed by a UNIFIL force of 12,000, south of the Litani River to replace Hezbollah. As result of this deployment and, perhaps, reluctance by Hezbollah to incite another war, the Israeli northern border has enjoyed a relative state of peace since 2006. When I was in the Golan Heights in January 2014 (I could actually see the Syrian War being fought from the top of Mount Bental), the general consensus by the inhabitants (including soldiers and IDF soldiers), that I spoke to was that Israeli’s northern border was much more peaceful than before the 2006 war. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah even admitted if he had known the consequences of 12th July raid, he would not have ordered it as he never expected the level of escalation that occurred and would try to avoid provoking any similar levels of damage. Israel’s willingness to escalate its responses, the damage it inflicted, and the relative impunity with which the Israeli forces could act has certainly made Hezbollah more cautious since 2006 and in the view of many has increased the level of deterrence for Israel.

Israel had failures certainly. As I said they failed to disarm Hezbollah much less destroy them, if that was ever their goal. Certainly by the latter stages of the war, Israel's main goal was establish a 2 km buffer zone to halt cross border raids and limit short range rocket attacks until the arrival of peace-keeping forces.

If there's any future conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, then Hezbollah won't be able to attack Israel via rocket attack with the same impunity as it did in 2006 due to the implementation of the Magic Wand and Iron Dome missile defense systems.
 
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JW Frogen

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I am punting on Iran.

I mean Islam is wild, bat s**t crazy, irrational sport.

But I like like how Shia team Iran turned the Iraq war to their advantage and then got their enemy in that war to a nuclear agreement, and given the nature of her enemies, ISIS, the Saudis and so on, I reckon I would give team Iran a ten point advantage in the next game.

But then this is the Islam league, so it will all go wrong in the end which ever team wins.
 

medusala

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The IDF is like Essendon. In a world of s**t but still believing its own crap about past glory.

Plenty would say Mossad even more so.

From what I understand the Israeli military is very concerned about Hezbollah's role in Syria.

You would think Lebanon also given the huge refugee influx there as well and its propensity to destabilise the country

Keegan is an old drunk who knows about Arnhem and the Battle of El Alamein but stuff all about now..

:thumbsu::thumbsu: Quality. Best chuckle I've had on here for a while.

More on topic, the House of Saud are fomenting this war to try and guarantee its own survival.

And Yemen. Two wars and a massive decline in the oil price. Triple whammy. Something will have to give sooner rather than later and probably wont be the oil price going back to $100/bbl
 

JW Frogen

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The real bet here, the real democratic hope, our ideological kin and kind, are the Kurds.

Forget Iran, forget Saudi Arabia.

Time to create a Kurdish state.
 

Subutai

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ssador-why-support-democracy-syria-not-saudi-



20160315_saudi1.jpg
 

Peka7777

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Great episode of Crosstalk discussing the Saudi/Iran proxy conflict:

https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/328254-saudi-arabia-foreign-policy/

My claim?

I said,

“While the conflict failed to disarm Hezbollah, there was a large number of Hezbollah fighters killed in the war, As well there was a post-war replacement of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was also much more economically damaged by the war than Israel was.”

All this is correct, although Hezbollah has since 2006 largely re-established itself in southern Lebanon but have heavily involved themselves in the Syrian War, taking their focus away from Israel.

While certainly there wasn't the rapid overwhelming victory for Israel that has occurred in previous wars, the 2006 war wasn't a massive defeat for Israel either, which is the point I'm making. Why?

Hezbollah had suffered heavier losses on the ground with between 600-800 Hezbollah fighters killed compared with 119 IDF personnel. Certainly Hezbollah failed to inflict massive losses on the IDF and to kill large numbers of Israelis in rocket attacks. In terms of Israeli equipment loss due to Hezbollah missiles, the Israelis lost five Merkava tanks and 1 transport helicopter.

The disputed Sheaba Farms remained in Israeli hands.

Northern Ghajar on the Lebanese side of the Lebanon-Israeli border was occupied by Israel and remains in Israeli control.

Israel did have some important successes at the tactical level, particularly in destroying medium and long-range rockets in the initial days of the war and in preventing the launch of most surviving systems during the course of the war

A cease-fire came into effect before Israel could completely dislodge Hezbollah from its positions, after a concerted ground offensive . The Israelis had planned to move up to the Litani River in a concerted ground offensive (which was about 29 km into southern Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah rocket launchers, particularly short range ones, that the air force had failed to take out). They launched the Litani Offensive on 11th August. and within two days had advanced 12 km into southern Lebanon. The day after (on the 14th), a ceasefire came into effect. Israel agreed to ceasefire for a number of reasons, including adverse domestic public pressure due to the rising casualty rate and international pressure. However had the ceasefire not taken effect, the Israelis could have pushed significantly into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah knew this too and were happy to use the ceasefire to re-group.

That’s not to say the Israelis had difficulties and made mistakes during the war. They did. The Israelis were over-reliant on their perceived capabilities of their airforce and despite having air superiority, failed to take out quite a few rockets particularly the short range rocket launchers. Hezbollah was well entrenched, the terrain was difficult and the reservists that were initially used before the Litani Offensive was launched were not as well trained as they might have been. Certainly in the initial stages of the war before the Litani Offensive) the IDF entered southern Lebanon on 17th July undermanned and ill-prepared. In those early days, the reservists of the IDF had a tremendous challenge ahead of it: take southern Lebanon with limited troops and dislodge a well-prepared and entrenched Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's entrenched infrastructure along Israel's border was certainly damaged by the war and was not easily rebuilt. The Lebanese Army deployed 15,000 soldiers, backed by a UNIFIL force of 12,000, south of the Litani River to replace Hezbollah. As result of this deployment and, perhaps, reluctance by Hezbollah to incite another war, the Israeli northern border has enjoyed a relative state of peace since 2006. When I was in the Golan Heights in January 2014 (I could actually see the Syrian War being fought from the top of Mount Bental), the general consensus by the inhabitants (including soldiers and IDF soldiers), that I spoke to was that Israeli’s northern border was much more peaceful than before the 2006 war. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah even admitted if he had known the consequences of 12th July raid, he would not have ordered it as he never expected the level of escalation that occurred and would try to avoid provoking any similar levels of damage. Israel’s willingness to escalate its responses, the damage it inflicted, and the relative impunity with which the Israeli forces could act has certainly made Hezbollah more cautious since 2006 and in the view of many has increased the level of deterrence for Israel.

Israel had failures certainly. As I said they failed to disarm Hezbollah much less destroy them, if that was ever their goal. Certainly by the latter stages of the war, Israel's main goal was establish a 2 km buffer zone to halt cross border raids and limit short range rocket attacks until the arrival of peace-keeping forces.

If there's any future conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, then Hezbollah won't be able to attack Israel via rocket attack with the same impunity as it did in 2006 due to the implementation of the Magic Wand and Iron Dome missile defense systems.
 

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