- Jul 28, 2004
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I'm not sure that war would be fought with numbers of soldiers, I am not sure there will be a war with these two nations, because the main reason to ask would be WHY?I've personally always considered a US-China war a mere theoretical possibility, on the never-never, probably won't happen. Then today I read Stan Grant's article.
Xi Jinping may gamble that America would not spill any blood for Taiwan. Stan Grant asks: What happens next?abc.net.au
Actually made me **** myself a bit, much morseo than covid-19 because I'm grateful to have my health. If the United States and China start a war then Australia is in for a world of pain - especially us blokes who are of military age.
I take it you've seen the 1984 movie 'Threads'. A conventional US-China war would be devastating, but a nuclear one (even with today's much smaller nuclear arsenals) would be unthinkable.I'm not sure that war would be fought with numbers of soldiers, I am not sure there will be a war with these two nations, because the main reason to ask would be WHY?
If it escalated into nuclear and or more countries getting involved the worse case is annihilation of most people.
And the world in ruin, there is no winning in a nuclear conflict of that size because your power as an economic giant will mean nothing with most of your customers dead! And your infrastructure mostly destroyed if you happened to be on the side with least damage and some of you survived it'd be very bad for you.
In that sort of case Russia and America would be able to wipe out the world ( so many war heads) and China with it.
Conventionally, I just don't see China with all its military build-up now, anywhere near the power of the United States, who is a warrior nation, they have virtually had to be that, after WW2 and their massive economic advancement.
They have done it all before on massive scale as well, that would have to be advantageous in a conventional war.
Also I believe they can put 9 or 11 carrier battle groups into action, and although the Chinese may have a missile system that endangers America's carrier groups, you would think that the USA is well prepared for that.
And probably even exceeded that technology to protect itself and its fleets.
I don't believe the Americans would be sitting on their hands over the years while they watch China.
Also additional enemies for China, I'm sure some SE Asian nations would not stand with China's CCP, I would imagine some Europeans like UK, Germany even, France would have very strong interests in protecting their own interests from China.
I would also not put Russia as a Guaranteed?? Ally. If I was China.
Who would know what this West bent nation I mean, I think the average Russian would like to live in a western society lifestyle and not become an ally and locked into the downsides of Chinese domination. if they happened to win both military and economic? Again what do they really win nothing. I think China would develop another enemy?
You really have no idea what Russia might do, mainly they are European?
So for me a serious large international conflict even if it stayed conventional I think China would be taken apart, not by the USA alone but perhaps inside its own borders and its own people, Chinese are not necessarily the CCP if you get my drift.
Look at Jimmy Lai and others from Hong Kong persecuted by theCCP governing.
As for Taiwan, if China is so bloody-minded that they would attack Taiwan no matter what. I think that the USA may just stand and watch, I don't know of course, but if the scenario above played out, why would they get involved with the chance of a nuclear conflict.
My thinking is that China and Taiwan can settle their differences without having to fight over it.
China would probably win the battle, but it would get an arm and a leg torn off it would not be easy.
in that kind of solution.
So I hope they are all smart enough to do it talking, no other way.
Remember India has nukes, Pakistan has nukes, Israel has nukes, China would face an array of enemies.
So a good outcome from escalation to full Nuclear war would be impossible to happen.
No one wins.
I think we're smarter, better throwing a few verbal stones than loaded and locked.