Is Brisbane the worst top two side ever?

[iBeng]

Literally this weekend, YOUR TEAM will be playing against an opponent who, it was reported by all and sundry, could only win by playing at their home ground. 21 matches later, the last 15 of them or something away from that ground, and we are in a grand final.

At what point will people ever, ever, ever stop making these stupid blanket statements?

They wont.

If we make it next year to the finals again it'll be A) ACADEMY IS UNFAIR or B) AFL ASSISTED TO MUCH! or C) DRUGS!

 

[scoman]

Yes and Collingwood last week was 111. No excuse

Did you win? I'm not sure I follow the logic here.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I think it was 114 in the end with the late change (118 before), but I agree with your overall point. I still think we were relatively young for a contending side, with our average games played higher than our average age would suggest because of the games we put into our younger players over the last few years. I think from next year however, our experience and age are no longer an excuse.

Colossal difference in experience, i think your right in the zone not to young and not to old.

 

[kozi]

ok, If you're saying we may not win next year - then yes the first time is the hardest so missing next year is a possibility.

In the coming years (like a never ending continuum) ?? now that's just a long bow to extrapolate. Will leave you to it as you seem to enjoy this angle more.

Unless this group is caught in some sort of never ending continuum then that doesn’t apply to my post.

 

[kozi]

They wont.

If we make it next year to the finals again it'll be A) ACADEMY IS UNFAIR or B) AFL ASSISTED TO MUCH! or C) DRUGS!

This is main board 101 against Richmond since 2017 so get used to it. Difference here is I provided just one factor which I genuinely believe has some merit and elaborated on (called out for) while others frequently pull out multiple baseless claims just to trash a team (and don’t get called out for).

 

[mpal6]

Unless this group is caught in some sort of never ending continuum then that doesn’t apply to my post.

You made a "they'll never win in years" blanket statement. Once you got called out - you narrowed it down to "next year". You keep saying goal posts haven't moved but struggling to pinpoint the logic behind "why" this team won't gain the maturity to win at all.

Finally, once more posters start pointing out the lack of logic behind this view, you've gone to the classic defensive mode of making it all about Richmond. . Carry on with your views, I think we're done here.

 

[HairyO]

Yeah that’s all you have to do. That’s all it takes to neutralise one of the best ball users ever to lace up a boot.

Same way all you have to do make David Bowie look average is to just knock up a quick Space Oddity on a Sunday afternoon

Its exactly what was done for pretty much all the rest of the year.

GAJ has had a poor year and is being carried to a flag in what is clearly his last game. Totally cooked.

 

[HairyO]

Replaced by Hawthorn in the top 2 next year - hk89 told me.

I want what he smokes.

8th to 12th really all we will hope for. We get the soft draw though. And given we had 7 home and 10 away (with only 1 at our home ground) Im sure the AFL will look after us.

Yes that last bit is tongue in cheek.

 

[kozi]

You made a "they'll never win in years" blanket statement. Once you got called out - you narrowed it down to "next year". You keep saying goal posts haven't moved but struggling to pinpoint the logic behind "why" this team won't gain the maturity to win at all.

Finally, once more posters start pointing out the lack of logic behind this view, you've gone to the classic defensive mode of making it all about Richmond. . Carry on with your views, I think we're done here.

And the award for biggest reach of all time goes to. No goal posts have been moved and the logic was pin pointed and explained in the original post. I’ll go as far as simplifying it even further just for you: It’s as simple as not expecting any team to improve enough to be an equal or better counterweight to losing 50% of its home games + a home grand final. Whether it be “next year” or in coming years is moot.

What you’ve failed to do is provide an actual counter apart from “Harris Andrews is a barometer” instead choosing to attack the point with some sort of straw man argument about next year vs coming years (which I’ve already pointed out is completely interchangeable in this instance).

Finally, once more posters start pointing out the lack of logic behind this view, you've gone to the classic defensive mode of making it all about Richmond. . Carry on with your views, I think we're done here.

You brought up Richmond first. In fact it was your original post. I understand the discussion might not be to your particular liking but please either get clue or jog on.

 

[JasRulz63]

Nobody is denying the further improvement nor that they won’t make savvy recruitment calls. I just think it’s ludacris to expect said improvement to be a bigger counterweight than 50% less home games + no home grand final in coming seasons, which let’s face it is a massive tip of the scales the other way.

Just based on that they’d have to improve out of sight to win it next year. If they do I’ll bloody tip my hat and say I was wrong.

If Brisbane win every game at home next season, and beat Gold Coast at Metricon (which is now supposedly our home too despite playing there fewer times this year than some other clubs) that's 12 wins. We then need to win 4 games away from home to reach 16 wins which would be a decent number for top 4 in most seasons. Not out of the realms of possibility, it's what we managed in 2019 and I think we're a better side now (which is needed because we'll have a tougher draw).

Finals is another story. If we make the top 4, one more finals win at home than this year puts us in a Grand Final.

The next two steps are the biggest ones obviously.

 

[PhatBoy]

Its exactly what was done for pretty much all the rest of the year.

GAJ has had a poor year and is being carried to a flag in what is clearly his last game. Totally cooked.

Yes he’s absolutely cooked.

Let’s look at some of his numbers as a small forward, compared to say, a guy from one of the other prelim teams who plays a similar role, shall we?

He has 1.9 goals+assists per game.
Charlie Cameron has 1.9 per game.

He has 5.3 score involvements per game.
Cameron has 4.7.
He has 3.7 inside 50s per game.
Cameron has 2.7.

He even averaged more tackles than Cameron.

Your post reeks of ‘I wish Ablett was s**t, so I’ll say it enough that I believe it.’

 

[BRAB]

Nobody is denying the further improvement nor that they won’t make savvy recruitment calls. I just think it’s ludacris to expect said improvement to be a bigger counterweight than 50% less home games + no home grand final in coming seasons, which let’s face it is a massive tip of the scales the other way.

Just based on that they’d have to improve out of sight to win it next year. If they do I’ll bloody tip my hat and say I was wrong.

 

[HairyO]

Yes he’s absolutely cooked.

Let’s look at some of his numbers as a small forward, compared to say, a guy from one of the other prelim teams who plays a similar role, shall we?

He has 1.9 goals+assists per game.
Charlie Cameron has 1.9 per game.

He has 5.3 score involvements per game.
Cameron has 4.7.
He has 3.7 inside 50s per game.
Cameron has 2.7.

He even averaged more tackles than Cameron.

Your post reeks of ‘I wish Ablett was sh*t, so I’ll say it enough that I believe it.’

Put all the stats for both side by side. Not just the 2 where Ablett is a bit ahead.

Your post reeks of someone making excuses for a player being carried. Just be happy he may get the 3rd flag he would have got if he didnt sell out for AFL $$$.

 

[kozi]

If Brisbane win every game at home next season, and beat Gold Coast at Metricon (which is now supposedly our home too despite playing there fewer times this year than some other clubs) that's 12 wins. We then need to win 4 games away from home to reach 16 wins which would be a decent number for top 4 in most seasons. Not out of the realms of possibility, it's what we managed in 2019 and I think we're a better side now (which is needed because we'll have a tougher draw).

Finals is another story. If we make the top 4, one more finals win at home than this year puts us in a Grand Final.

We can debate how much of an impact being locked in a home hub with home games all season vs a normal season travelling every 2nd week has. I’m of the opinion the difference between the two is a far greater factor than the potential improvement of the side in coming seasons.

That’s never been to underplay how much you can and will likely improve. Rather pointing to how big of a difference the former makes. I think it’s far from outlandish to raise that sort of discussion or to be of that view.

 

[kozi]

View attachment 988843

God the man has aged well

 

[PhatBoy]

Put all the stats for both side by side. Not just the 2 where Ablett is a bit ahead.

Your post reeks of someone making excuses for a player being carried. Just be happy he may get the 3rd flag he would have got if he didnt sell out for AFL $$$.

Yeah I was very selective, they are the only stats Ablett is ahead in.... I had to just pick some really obscure stats for forwards like scoreboard impact to make a comparison. Because those stats don’t matter for forwards.

By all means keep telling us how bad he is though.

 

[PhatBoy]

David King, the man who has been deathriding the Cats since the start of 2011 - said we’d miss the finals that year and has been saying we are going to drop ever since, the man in the media who is quickest of anyone to put a line through our players due to age, spent 10 minutes last night talking about how Ablett is not only doing enough to hold a spot, but he’s having a bigger impact than many players in their prime.

But no he’s cooked.

 

[Milux]

David King, the man who has been deathriding the Cats since the start of 2011 - said we’d miss the finals that year and has been saying we are going to drop ever since, the man in the media who is quickest of anyone to put a line through our players due to age, spent 10 minutes last night talking about how Ablett is not only doing enough to hold a spot, but he’s having a bigger impact than many players in their prime.

But no he’s cooked.

I am honoured by the fact I got to watch the champ 2 weeks in a row. Not sure what else he can be doing to be honest. Hope he gets another flag.

 

[JasRulz63]

We can debate how much of an impact being locked in a home hub with home games all season vs a normal season travelling every 2nd week has. I’m of the opinion the difference between the two is a far greater factor than the potential improvement of the side in coming seasons.

That’s never been to underplay how much you can and will likely improve. Rather pointing to how big of a difference the former makes. I think it’s far from outlandish to raise that sort of discussion or to be of that view.

I think it's a reasonable point of discussion hence why I offered a counter point. Obviously if the season returns to normal next year, we lose the advantages that we had this year. We travelled every second week in 2019, and fell a goal short of making a preliminary final.

I think the other assumption you're making is that improvement is linear. In some ways we weren't as good a side this year than we were last year, and in other ways we were better. But if this year was a normal season and we'd improved, who's to say we wouldn't be in a similar position to here we are now.

 

[HairyO]

Yeah I was very selective, they are the only stats Ablett is ahead in.... I had to just pick some really obscure stats for forwards like scoreboard impact to make a comparison. Because those stats don’t matter for forwards.

By all means keep telling us how bad he is though.View attachment 988849

He was 0.7 goals, 2.2 tackles, 1.9 marks, etc before last night's game. As I said he got a big boost because Rich refused to play on him all night and gifted Ablett an easy game.

BTW Cameron had fewer metres gained because he was kicking goals. Far more of them. Dont need to kick 40m when you are 20m out getting goals.

Maybe GAJ was playing more HFF, why is why he had more assists and more metres gained. Compare him to Gunston who wasnt good enough to make AA so could be a fair comparison.

Do you reckon Richmond's defence will give him space next week ?

 

[PhatBoy]

He was 0.7 goals, 2.2 tackles, 1.9 marks, etc before last night's game. As I said he got a big boost because Rich refused to play on him all night and gifted Ablett an easy game.

BTW Cameron had fewer metres gained because he was kicking goals. Far more of them. Dont need to kick 40m when you are 20m out getting goals.

Maybe GAJ was playing more HFF, why is why he had more assists and more metres gained. Compare him to Gunston who wasnt good enough to make AA so could be a fair comparison.

Do you reckon Richmond's defence will give him space next week ?

Gunston is your team’s main goal kicking option along with Breust. Ablett is not one of our main goal kicking options.

Hawkins, Dangerfield, Rohan, Miers and Stanley are ours, with Ablett kicking and creating them.

He was literally named man of the match by a couple of media outlets.

Stop trying to add caveats to what was a frankly, stupid comment. Players who are cooked, attended well by the opposition or not, are not among the best players on the field in a preliminary final.

 

[kozi]

I think it's a reasonable point of discussion hence why I offered a counter point. Obviously if the season returns to normal next year, we lose the advantages that we had this year. We travelled every second week in 2019, and fell a goal short of making a preliminary final.

I think the other assumption you're making is that improvement is linear. In some ways we weren't as good a side this year than we were last year, and in other ways we were better. But if this year was a normal season and we'd improved, who's to say we wouldn't be in a similar position to here we are now.

Doubt anyone assumes improvement is linear but in any case you guys were still better this year than last if we’re going by win rate and percentage.

Anyway can only play the cards you’re dealt so to speak. 2019 aside, I think taking the whole current season into account and using the fixed differences we already know of to make an educated projection is a good place to start. The variable of course is how much the side will improve so that’s where the debate lies in this instance. In any case point has been consistent that it’s simply not expected for any team (that just finished 2nd on the ladder mind you) to just automatically improve enough to outweigh the loss of such incredible benefits. In no way is it impossible, but for anyone to sit there and expect it to be an outcome that’s more likely than unlikely is just dumb imo. The fact another supporter even raised issue with a discussion like that being raised just boggles the mind.

 

[JasRulz63]

Doubt anyone assumes improvement is linear but in any case you guys were still better this year than last if we’re going by win rate and percentage.

Anyway can only play the cards you’re dealt so to speak. 2019 aside, I think taking the whole current season into account and using the fixed differences we already know of to make an educated projection is a good place to start. The variable of course is how much the side will improve so that’s where the debate lies in this instance. In any case point has been consistent that it’s simply not expected for any team (that just finished 2nd on the ladder mind you) to improve enough to outweigh the loss of such incredible benefits. In no way is it impossible, but for anyone to sit there and expect it to be an outcome that’s more likely than unlikely is just dumb imo. The fact another supporter even raised issue with a discussion like that being raised just boggles the mind.

My question is, do you think it was a big step from losing a semi final by 3 points, to being soundly beaten in a preliminary final? If your answer is yes, and that difference was made up an "incredible benefit", then I acknowledge the point of view you're making. That's under the assumption that we didn't improve at all this year.

My point is that you're hugely overplaying the advantage though I don't disagree there is one. Similarly, I think Victorian teams such as Richmond and Collingwood similarly get an advantage fixture wise, but again, it's not a massive one.

 

[kozi]

My question is, do you think it was a big step from losing a semi final by 3 points, to being soundly beaten in a preliminary final? If your answer is yes, and that difference was made up an "incredible benefit", then I acknowledge the point of view you're making. That's under the assumption that we didn't improve at all this year.

My point is that you're hugely overplaying the advantage though I don't disagree there is one. Similarly, I think Victorian teams such as Richmond and Collingwood similarly get an advantage fixture wise, but again, it's not a massive one.

Don’t think I’m overplaying or underplaying it at all. It was what it was, a big one. If you believe it was only minor then we’ll have to agree to disagree, however I think you’ll be hard pressed to find many neutrals who believe that.

 

[JasRulz63]

Don’t think I’m overplaying or underplaying it at all. It was what it was, a big one. If you believe it was only minor then we’ll have to agree to disagree, however I think you’ll be hard pressed to find many neutrals who believe that.

By that definition, do you think in a normal season, Richmond has a big advantage over Brisbane?