Is Essendon really a younger team than North?

[Pete]

Heres an interesting point for everybody who thinks that Norths list is getting old. It is true that some of the superstars are moving on but consider this from both teams full list.
Using the basis that players born in 1975 or before (therefore turning 25 or more this year) are the 'older' players:
* North have 14 which fit into this category
* Essendon have 18

And now taking a look at the younger players heres a appraisal of only the finest:
Essendon, Born:
76 -
77 Blumfield, Caracella, Lucas
78 Mark Johnson, Lloyd, McAllister, Rioli
79 Bolton, Heffernan
80 Henneman, Ramanauskas, Soloman
81 McVeigh

North, Born:
76 Bell, Simpson
77 Grant, Pagan, Pickett
78 Clayton, Cochrane, Harvey, Hay, Hewitt, Kent Kingley, Motlop
79 Lange
80 -
81 Brady Rawlings

Essendon 13 North 14
Both teams have stars here, Essendon would probably have the pick (for one word Lloyd) but its by no means one sided.

I feel that Essendons greatest problem is that they have held on to too many old players who have only some hope of breaking into the senior team this year with the younger players in good form. (But they will get you a Reserves Prem.)
North in the past 7 years have always replaced players who served well but became only fringys. eg Allison, Rock, Romero, Clarkson etc
This has led to Essendons list becoming a similar age to Norths.
North is rebuilding at the moment to survive when Carey, Stevens McKernan etc retire. They must or else the West Sydney Roos will become a probability. They cant allow the team to drop down the ladder and then try to get back. Its a matter of survival.
Any thoughts
From Pete

 

[Dan26]

You will find Pete, that to win a flag, you need a mixture.

You will also find that in 3 years time, the average age of North's and Essendon's playing list won't be much different. New player will have come on. Old players will have retired. Middle aged players will become veterans. It's a cycle.

Essendon has got a good mix this year. Bewick, will be great off the bench. Hs older legs will still be fresh off the bench to dob a couple of goals a match. Barnes, is 30, but this is when Ruckman peak. And as for those players in their mid 20's (Mercuri, Misit, etc), well........ they are in their prime.

What will keep North succesfull is your amazing coach. In my opinion the greatest in AFL history. He will never miss the finals with any team he coaches.

Remember the under 19's ? 9 consecutive GF's. Every two years there is complete turnover of players, so he was doing it with different teams every year. What, did North coincidently have the best playing list 9 years in a row ? Of course not ! While the players changed year to year, the Coach (Pagan) remained the same.

When he took over North in 1993, they were hopeless. They had 6 or 7 wins and finsied 12, or 13th, or something. They had a percentage of 78. Their for and against ratio was WORSE than Collingwoods in 1999. That's right, if you go by for and against, North in 1992 were better than the Pies in 1999.

North had a superstar (Carey) who won the B&F in 1992. That didn't help them climb the ladder in 1992. Collingwood, also had a superstar in 1999 (Buckley) who didn't help them climb the ladder.

But after a 150 point drubbing in the Fosters Cup in 1993 (under Schimulbusch), Pagan took them to within half a game of top spot (with the best percentage). Then after that, have been SIX consecutive preliminary finals.

Pagan is a freak.

I am TOTALLY CONVINCED, that as long as Pagan remains, they will break Hawthorn record of 13 succcesive finals campaigns. The payers may change at North, but as long as they are of AFL standard, and they've got that great coach, they will be a successful team.

Essendon rely more on talented players. North rely on a super efficient game plan engineered by a super coach, discipline, and mathematics (probablities, to do with efficiency of ball usage), to guarantee them success.

You will always have a great team under Pagan.

Thank GOD, he didn't go to Carlton or Collingwood !!!!!

Remember he also coached Essendon reserves to a flag in 1992 (his only year there), and the next year, with Pagans influence still there at Essendon, a lot of those players were instrumental in the clubs 1993 premiership. It is possible Essendon MAY not have won the 1993 flag, if Denis was not at the club the year before.

 

[Shinboners]

Dan24's generous praise of Denis Pagan is, well, heartwarming. But to call him the greatest AFL coach (we are including VFL coaches aren't we?) is, well, maybe taking things a little bit too far. How about Jock McHale, Norm Smith, David Parkin, John Kennedy, Allan Jeans, Ron Barassi, and Kevin Sheedy? Or even Port Adelaide's Fos Williams?

The other week in the Herald-Sun, Mike Sheahan wrote that Sheedy really needed this premiership to be regarded as a true coaching great. What utter rubbish...Sheedy is alreay a great. It's hard enough to win one premiership, he has won 3. Three in 20 years translates to 15 in a century...not bad huh? And of all the people in the AFL/AFL in the last 20 years, he has done more to promote the sport than anyone else. No hype, no marketing, he just gets out there and promotes the sport and Essendon. Kevin Sheedy as the head of the AFL? I'd like to see that.

Anyway, Dan24 is right on the requirements for a premiership team....you do need a good blend of old and young players to win a premiership. The old ones for their experience, the young 'uns for the enthusiasm and energy. Both old and young players have to be hungry to succeed. I reckon that Essendon have it. North too. You have to credit the coaches for their man management. That is what hurt Hawthorn early in the 90s...too many older players retiring at once. Carlton had the same problem, but managed it slightly better than the Hawks.

 

[Dave]

Pete,
personally I'd rate younger Essendon players players slightly ahead of those you've listed for Nth, but only by a fraction. Of the 13 Essendon players I'd say 8 would be regular senior players, whereas there are probably only 6 from Nth's 14 that I could call regular senior players. That's a matter of opinion of course

You say Essendon has hung on to too many older players, here's the list of those currently over 25 or turning 25 this year (age in brackets).

Bewick(33), Denham(31), Barnes(31), Wallis(31), Long(31), Fraser(29), Alessio(29), Grgic(28), Hardwick(28), Robran(28), Hird(27), Barnard(27), Eastaugh(27), Berbakov(27), Prior(27), Mercuri(26), Wellman(26), Misiti(26), Fletcher(25) and Lalich (25)

Average age 28.

Now of those there are only six who I wouldn't rate as being automatic selections when fit - Fraser, Grgic, Robran, Eastaugh, Berbakov and Lalich.

Grgic & Eastaugh are backup ruckmen & Berbakov was an established senior player before being injured last year, Lalich is only 25. Based on that, they haven't really hung on to "too many old players who have only some hope of breaking into the senior team" in my opinion!

Of the Nth players born in '75 or before we have Blakey(34), Sholl(33), Martyn(32), Scott(31), Burton(30), Carey(29), Stevens(29), King(28), Pike(28), Archer(27), Calthorpe(27), McKernan(27), Dhurrkay(26), McCartney (26), Abraham(26), Colbert(25), Anderson(25), Chandler (25), Capuano(25).

Average age: 28.

By my count that's Essendon 20 to North 19.

By my reckoning, North will have more of their older players (those listed above) playing regularly, and that's where the perception that North have an older list than Essendon come's from. I'd say the media think that Essendon have greater depth in their younger players than North.

I would agree with you that North need to ensure that once the current group of older players, Blakey, Matryn, Carey, Stevens etc retire they don't find themselves down the wrong end of the ladder, as if they don not continue to be successful I can't see them surviving in Melbourne.

any way, my 2 cents worth

seeya

Dave

 

[Pessimistic]

Is Carey really 29 ? Consider that Dermie was in big injury trouble by that age I wonder how long he will keep going at CHF

I used Dermie as a reference because Carey and Pagan said recently they'd like to emulate Dermie and Hawthorn respectively through the eighties. Carey would need to keep going for at least 3 more years and North win a couple of flags for that to occur (in achievement sense, that is).

 

[Pete]

I hear where your coming form Dave. (My age totals didnt include the 75 guys.)
All Im saying is that out of the older players you listed from North you would be stuggling to find one player who isnt a consistent senior player. Brady Anderson maybe, I dont know why we still have him. Hed do better somewhere else.
Pagan throughout his career from U19's on his always surrounded himself in a great team and that requires planning and intelligence. This is why hes been so successful every year.
You must be a tad worried that the baby bombers will retire at a similar time and going by past experience at Essendon these great players will keep playing there until they start getting wrinkles. Watson even came back from retirement for gods sake.
As for the coaches I think we all understand that Pagan and Sheedy are the two best currently, not just good sounding ex-player commentators who get paid massive amounts to coach.
Of course a great team needs a blend and I see nothing wrong with the ages at Essendon currently but the question this topic brings about is that the Old Roos and the Young Bomber outfit that everyone talks about isnt exactly true, not that I think Essendon is old.
Pete

 

[Dave]

Pete,

as you've said, of the older players at Nth, most are getting a game and that's where this perception comes from. Essendon's best team on the whole is a bit younger than Nth's even if the lists are similar, so when they retire Nth are in a little more trouble than the Dons.

BTW, there's nothing wrong with champions playing on either. Experience shouldn't be discounted, I mean if Timmy hadn't come out of retirement, we may not have won the flag in '93!!

 

[Senor Skase]

They've both got the oldest lists in the comp by streets which is why one of you better make it good this year.
If you want some meaningful benchmarks, run the Magpies or Port's list through the numbers.
Good game though, no matter how old those old fellas were.

 

[Dan26]

Shinboner,

I'd take Pagan ahead of Sheedy, Jock McHale, Bight, Norm Smith, Jeans, Barassi etc etc.

Pagan AVERAGES making Grand Final. Don't even contemplate getting a wooden spoon like Norm Smith did with South Melbourne.

Pagan made something out of nothing, and he has done for nearly 20 years now.

Like I said with the under 19's, there are different teams every two years, but he kept on getting them in the GF (9 years in a row in fact). Now, as the players are changing year to year, the coach is the ONLY constant.

If can take Noreth Melbourne, who hadn't made the final in 6 years, and had a percentage of 78 in 1992 (and were close to the worst team in the competition), to consistent heights for the last 7 years, imagine what he would have done had he taken over Fitzroy (hypothetically) in 1993.

Fitzroy, at the time had a talented playing list, with players such as Roos, Lynch, Ross Lyon etc. If Pagan had taken over them, maybe Fitzroy would have made 6 consecutive prelimianry finals, and North may have merged with Brisbane.

North obviously wouldn't have experienced the highs they are having now.

Remember, John Coleman was named the greates full-forward of all time and he only played 98 games. This is Pagan's 8th year, and he has coached for 160-odd games. I'd take him over anyone.

High praise ??

Indeed it is. But think about who he took over, how crap they were, what he has done with them, his prior record before the AFL, and you will see that this bloke is the greatest ever.

When he finished coaching, he may be perceived as the greatest ever. Remember, this is from an Essendon supporter, so I have an un-biased opinion when it comes to this. North have always laced depth (and still do), but Pagan's feats with the Kangaroos have been extraordinary.

 

[Dave]

Skasey,
Collingwood have only 13 players 25 or over on their list, so it is quite young. Port however, have 17 players 25 or older this year, so they aren't that far behind Nth & Essendon.

Whilst they may not have anyone over thirty, it isn't these players that Essendon are relying on to win matches. I'm quite happy with our list, and I certainly wouldn't say that if we don't win a flag in the next two years we'll struggle after that. We've got quite a good depth of young talent there.

seeya

Dave

 

[Dave]

Skasey,

I thought I'd also run the numbers for the others clubs (thanks statsware!), and it turns out you're not quite correct.

The Western Bulldogs have 22 players 25 or over this year, though the average age is slightly lower at 27.3.

Sydney has 19 players in this category & their average age works out to 28.8, older than both Nth and Essendon.

Carlton have 18 (5 >=30 this year) at an average age of 28.7, and are probably in the most trouble as nearly all of these players would be part of their best line up. I'd say they have easily the "oldest" list going around at the moment.

I haven't looked at the younger players as Pete picked only those that were IHO "the finest" & I'm not going to go through every teams list & pick out those who IMO are their finest, it's too subjective.

FYI, the number at each club 25 or over & the average age:


Ad 17 27.9
Bri 12 28.5
Car 18 28.7
Col 13 25.3
Ess 20 28.1
Fre 12 28.0
Gee 15 28.6
Haw 15 27.8
Mel 15 28.3
Kan 19 28.1
PAP 17 26.6
Ric 14 27.6
StK 18 27.6
Syd 19 28.8
WCE 16 28.0
WB 22 27.3

 

[Adelaide proud.]

I think somone mentioned, Fos Williams in this string?? Sorry to say but Jack Oatey was a much much better coach. Even Port fans will agree. Jack bred the handball skilled running game we have in SA that you all know of. Fos invented the aggressive 'tackle hard, get ball first' philosophy, and later blended it with the above which created the modern Port game which is so sucessful. Anyway thought I would mention it to you.

 

[JoffaMan]

I would've thought they were younger. Rooboys have older guys like Harvey, Grant and Archer.

The Dons have a stream of youngsters like Johns and Stanton.

 

[rhino49]

I would've thought they were younger. Rooboys have older guys like Harvey, Grant and Archer.

The Dons have a stream of youngsters like Johns and Stanton.

this thread is 6 years old moron!

 

[Port01]

this thread is 6 years old moron!

So old that it has people saying Pagan will never miss the finals.

 

[Warwick]

What will keep North succesfull is your amazing coach. In my opinion the greatest in AFL history. He will never miss the finals with any team he coaches.

You will always have a great team under Pagan.

hmmmm...