Is First Second Round Pick More Valuable?

[random260]

Given the draft is over two days I noticed the first second round pick is becoming a hot commodity.

You had devon Robertson and now Matt Johnson both picked using those picks. Splitting the day into two allows clubs to have more times to think of player.

So could we see a bidding war where pick 18 + 3rd pick is traded down to pick 23/22?

 

[Looney]

Huh?

 

[James Colorado]

It only takes its value due to highly rated draftees who have slid beyond where they were predicted to go. Especially this year, it felt like a lot of clubs were seeing as a potential second pick someone they didn't expect to take. The extra day's break doesn't benefit anyone in terms of extra time to think; the recruiting teams are all professional outfits, and know exactly who they want, made a probability based assumption on who the other teams want, and have decided who they'll take if any aspects of their assumption turns out to be incorrect (does tend to happen). The only benefit to the extra day is the potential trading of picks it allows, which would again be based on an analysis of would player x at round 2 pick 1 suit the list better than players y & z at round 2 pick # & round 3 pick *.

In a draft where all things were as expected, then pick 18 will almost always be more valued than a pick in the early 20s plus a third rounder. It's only when a rival does something unexpected that makes the alternative even considered.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Giving clubs 12 hours to think over it, Yeah

Like we offered a Future first and pick 23 for Freo's 20, Just We had Matt Johnson pegged at 8th on our Draft rankings. You have time to Think about it, On the fly if a kid you rated top 5 drops to 14 It's hard to convince people and offer within 2m a future first and a second to secure the kid, AFL draft managers dont have that power

Considering he's a WA boy which dropped a bit and Freo had him to 15, No way were freo going to do that deal

With Deven, Brisbane really liked the kid and Was worth it, Todays news on how much we offered Johnson was the thought of "A future first and a second is pretty much us getting two top 10 picks" as Johnson Should not have lasted that long

 

[JasRulz63]

Giving clubs 12 hours to think over it, Yeah

Like we offered a Future first and pick 23 for Freo's 20, Just We had Matt Johnson pegged at 8th on our Draft rankings. You have time to Think about it, On the fly if a kid you rated top 5 drops to 14 It's hard to convince people and offer within 2m a future first and a second to secure the kid, AFL draft managers dont have that power

Considering he's a WA boy which dropped a bit and Freo had him to 15, No way were freo going to do that deal

With Deven, Brisbane really liked the kid and Was worth it, Todays news on how much we offered Johnson was the thought of "A future first and a second is pretty much us getting two top 10 picks" as Johnson Should not have lasted that long

Yeah, similarly to Johnson, Brisbane rated Robertson in that 7 to 10 range as well.

 

[Golumless]

It's nothing more than marketing spin to try to keep the AFL in the spotlight.

If you need to look over more tapes of prospects or discuss your order for players by the time day 2 rolls around, you have down a downright shithouse job as a recruiting team.

 

[M Malice]

 

[Belnakor]

It's nothing more than marketing spin to try to keep the AFL in the spotlight.

If you need to look over more tapes of prospects or discuss your order for players by the time day 2 rolls around, you have down a downright shithouse job as a recruiting team.

disagree. The 2nd day pick will enable clubs to trade up for sliders, gives them more time to put together the deal. Essentially you are trading for a known quantity.

The picks after that, sure pretty much business as usual.

 

[HairyO]

disagree. The 2nd day pick will enable clubs to trade up for sliders, gives them more time to put together the deal. Essentially you are trading for a known quantity.

The picks after that, sure pretty much business as usual.

So Freo should give up any 1st round pick for pick 19 every year ?

 

[owen87]

So Freo should give up any 1st round pick for pick 19 every year ?

That's an interesting take on his comment.

 

[Golumless]

disagree. The 2nd day pick will enable clubs to trade up for sliders, gives them more time to put together the deal. Essentially you are trading for a known quantity.

The picks after that, sure pretty much business as usual.

Every time you trade for the current pick, you're trading for a known quantity. Being the 1st pick of the 2nd round makes sweet * all difference wise compared to the last pick of the 1st round in that regard. Of course, the reality is you are not trading for a known quantity as very few players in the draft have played any AFL level football.

The only argument you could make is it allows cooler heads to prevail, but of course, that's a negative for the team holding the first pick of the 2nd round. Otherwise, 5 minutes, 1 day, it doesn't make a difference and it hasn't so far. The argument that teams can cobble together multiple team trades in the draft with how limited the talent becomes once you're past pick 20 is just a tabloid fantasy for the most part.

 

[Percel]

Not as important as grammar.

 

[HairyO]

That's an interesting take on his comment.

Id be amazed if teams change who they want overnight. They spend an entire year honing their list.

On night one they cross off the names of the players they want as they are chosen. If they suddenly change their choices I would say its a sign of incompetence.

But yes, I was being a little over the top.

 

[owen87]

Id be amazed if teams change who they want overnight. They spend an entire year honing their list.

On night one they cross off the names of the players they want as they are chosen. If they suddenly change their choices I would say its a sign of incompetence.

But yes, I was being a little over the top.

It's more that they have time to think about it.

In the moment they have a few minutes to decide if x player is who they really want, and how much they're willing to pay to get access to them.

With the days break, it means they can target a specific player and weigh up how much they value them, and there's sufficient time for the club with pick 19 to host a bidding war for it.

The known quantity of a specific player at 19 is not dissimilar to having pick 1 and being willing to trade it, just the amount of currency needed is less.

If you want a specific player, pick 18 is obviously better than pick 19 as a selection. If you want to maximise your trade currency, pick 19 would almost definitely be traded for more than pick 18 due to the nature of the 2 day draft.

 

[HairyO]

It's more that they have time to think about it.

In the moment they have a few minutes to decide if x player is who they really want, and how much they're willing to pay to get access to them.

With the days break, it means they can target a specific player and weigh up how much they value them, and there's sufficient time for the club with pick 19 to host a bidding war for it.

The known quantity of a specific player at 19 is not dissimilar to having pick 1 and being willing to trade it, just the amount of currency needed is less.

If you want a specific player, pick 18 is obviously better than pick 19 as a selection. If you want to maximise your trade currency, pick 19 would almost definitely be traded for more than pick 18 due to the nature of the 2 day draft.

Why wouldnt they do that over the previous 8 months?

So going in to Day 1 its:
We go with A, unless he is gone, then its B, unless he is gone, then its C, etc.

Then for their 2nd pick they keep going.

You think at the end of Day 1 they go "oh wow this player we never even thought about is there lets go for him !!"

 

[WCE_phil]

With only a few minutes to organise a pick swap it is hard to trade. West Coast wanted Chesser and knew he would make it past port. There was maybe interest from Sydney or Brisbane. Considering West Coast's trade relationships with both of those teams if they had more time to discuss who they were looking at and the other team was looking to trade up West Coast may have traded down again.

I for one wish him the best but I was pissed West Coast drafted him where they did, but they did do well to still get the player they wanted and a 2022 second round pick.

 

[jim boy]

It's more that they have time to think about it.

In the moment they have a few minutes to decide if x player is who they really want, and how much they're willing to pay to get access to them.

No trades are going to be done "in a few minutes" too much on the line for a lot of club officials and they want to examine the trade from every angle and what that means for there planned pick. Are they willing to risk dropping down a few picks to get an upgrade somewhere else? Too much risk to just go on the fly.

I think clubs line up trades, but dont pull the trigger too early as it may become a pointless trade. A really good example of this would be the Draper trade which saw Collingwood swap with Geelong and move up to selection 45. Collingwood wanted him and they were pretty sure Dodoro was going to select him with pick 46. So Collingwood and Geelong work out a trade that was to both side's benefit well before the draft even starts. However another team may have thrown a spanner in the works by selecting Draper early or maybe there would be a slider that the Pies preferred. So Collingwood waited till the very last moment, Geelong was still happy, the trade was done, the pies got their man and the Dons were thwarted.

So in short, yeah, there is plenty of time to work out a deal for pick round 2 pick 1, but that is true for all the picks as well.

 

[owen87]

No trades are going to be done "in a few minutes" too much on the line for a lot of club officials and they want to examine the trade from every angle and what that means for there planned pick. Are they willing to risk dropping down a few picks to get an upgrade somewhere else? Too much risk to just go on the fly.

I think clubs line up trades, but dont pull the trigger too early as it may become a pointless trade. A really good example of this would be the Draper trade which saw Collingwood swap with Geelong and move up to selection 45. Collingwood wanted him and they were pretty sure Dodoro was going to select him with pick 46. So Collingwood and Geelong work out a trade that was to both side's benefit well before the draft even starts. However another team may have thrown a spanner in the works by selecting Draper early or maybe there would be a slider that the Pies preferred. So Collingwood waited till the very last moment, Geelong was still happy, the trade was done, the pies got their man and the Dons were thwarted.

So in short, yeah, there is plenty of time to work out a deal for pick round 2 pick 1, but that is true for all the picks as well.

I think clubs do it all the time, they'd have sussed out who's likely to do a trade and what for, but that delay between round 1 and round 2 gives a lot more time to think on it, talk to other stakeholders, and fixate on one specific player that you know is right there.

Effectively clubs aren't bidding for Pick 19, they're bidding for <insert player> after having had an extended time to think about it, and the club holding the pick has sufficient time to force a bidding war in a way that doesn't happen during the draft itself.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Pick 19 has become more valuable than pick 1 in recruiting circles.

 

[Kim Hagdorn]

No.

 

[The Goon]

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Pick 19 has become more valuable than pick 1 in recruiting circles.

It definitely is a far more tradable asset. All depends on the quality of the pick 1 players. Like the year we took McGrath, we'd probably have been better off trading it, but no recruiter holding it is really ever going to do that.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

It only has value to clubs who rate a player that slid to the end of the first round and didn’t have the capacity to negotiate a deal on the first night.

 

[Scotland]

Overhyped.

We drafted Oscar Allen

12

Oscar Allen

Age

25

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

at pick 21 in 2017. He was considered a slider.

Freo for example had picks 2 and 5 then nothing until 44. They might have considered Allen top 10 but third choice after Brayshaw and Cerra. Having watched a bunch of other players go 6-19, they may have got on the blower to Richmond and offered something for pick 20 which was eventually used on Coleman-Jones. The extra time to think overnight is nice, but if they thought Allen was going to go top 10 for sure nothing was stopping them trading for pick 10 or 15 etc. or even 21 on the night. Completely fictional scenario of course but whoever has the pick of the board in the second round is still picking after ~20 names are off the board.

Getting Matt Johnson at pick 21 is seen as a steal, but is having pick 21 really better than having pick 20? If Freo had pick 20 they would've taken the same player and some other kid would be a 'steal' at 21.

 

[The 747]

It definitely is a far more tradable asset. All depends on the quality of the pick 1 players. Like the year we took McGrath, we'd probably have been better off trading it, but no recruiter holding it is really ever going to do that.

Pick 19 is more tradeable than pick 1 shock news!