Is Geelong's home ground advantage a double edged sword?

[Southerntakeover]

If they'd been given home finals in 2017, as they should have been, they'd have played Adelaide at the MCG in the Grand Final and might well have been premiers.

Not sure it hurts them so much as having to play home finals on the opposing teams home ground hinders them.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

So all the interstate sides want more games at the G during the H/A rounds. Given the proximity Geelong get a lot of games at the G by comparison. This is a problem?

 

[Silent Alarm]

Well the only thing is, you’re assuming a bottom out results in getting out of it.

Let’s say the option is: play finals every single year for 10 years but no guaranteed wins versus bottom out, getting high picks, but having no guaranteed stars emerge. What would you prefer?

In terms of averages, so long as you’re side is decent, if you play in 10 successive finals series’ then you’re going to be a very good chance of winning a flag. Just on raw averages. Even if you finished eight every season, under this example Geelong are going to need to win four games to be premiers and probably half of those will be in their home state.

If they were to go down, who knows what’d happen? Few bad years and your coach is gone. How good has any recent appointment really been? Then there’s the relative luck of youth development...

I’d rather play finals than bottom out. Yeah.


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[Vdubs]

It's linked to this thread though....Geelong can't design a gameplan to win at MCG as they don't play there enough and won't make finals if they do that.

Geelong will only win a final at the G if they are a superb team. Since 2014 that has not been the case. All we should care about is getting there. PPlaying at the G is irrelevant in some was if the team is good enough to win anywhere, like Geelong 07-11, like WCE 18, like Hawks in their recent era.

 

[DaveLister]

I think the issue with kardinia is how exceptionally different it's dimensions are, even more so when they brought the boundary in this year. It must be exceedingly difficult to come up with and play to a game plan which works on both kardinia and the MCG.

 

[juss]

When the team was good it didnt matter (07-11). This current Geelong team is not that good. They finish higher up the ladder because of their home games, but that's not a disadvantage if anything it's a big advantage.

When they are good: They make finals regardless.
When they aren't that good: They make finals with some help of a home ground.

It's a pretty sweet deal.

 

[Sherrinator]

Geelong get nine games at their home ground - GMBHA Stadium - next season. They play the ground exceptionally well and rarely lose there. Home ground advantages are huge in the AFL, teams that have a ground they play multiple times during the year that other team see once a season at best have a huge leg up.

But Geelong have of late been very poor in the finals. If Geelong win eight of their nine at their home ground next year, they probably only need to find another five wins from the rest of their games to make the finals.

It is clear that GMBHA Stadium's massive advantage helps Geelong keep making finals. But does it actually help them long term? Do they need to bottom out? CAN they bottom out with so many wins all but guaranteed each year?

Does having a home ground advantage that's almost unique in the league actually hinder the Cats as much as help?

I think that they don’t bottom out as they manage to top-up is with quality players. Supporters don’t want to see a team suck for 5 years straight.

 

[Topkent]

To be really fair, how many other teams get to play 11 of their games at their home ground, not 9?
ALL, except Geelong maybe.
Playing home games v Pies, Hawks, Tigers, Demons at the G, is NOT a home game for GFC,
If we played 11 home games at Geelong, which would be novel, unprecedented, yet VERY FAIR, then we could talk about HGA being a double edged sword.
Right now, the inequities are an issue because we are not a super team, we are middle of the road, and playing any home game at the G is an advantage to the G team, surely.
The aim is to get there. Top 8. As this comp is inherently unfair in that we do not play each team twice, the only fair solution is to be given 11 HOME games at HOME. If we fail after getting there , so be it.
Personally, being Melbourne based, I selfishly like us playing at the G, but it is clearly not to our advantage.

Ok mate. When you've wiped away the tears and spit from your keyboard you would realise Geelong played 9 genuine home games against sides who don't share the ground.

Where as the MCG tenants home games are often play against against fellow tenants which means 0 advantage

 

[Taylor]

It is to a point, but the biggest difference between Geelong 2007 to 2011 vs 2012- is that the earlier Geelong team was better and the latter other Victorian teams are better.

Geelong haven't been able to replace the quality talent they had, along with their elite father son picks for third rounders from their 2007 to 2011 era.

They are missing Bartel, Johnson, Chapman and Enright badly. As all clubs would.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

I don’t see it as a disadvantage at all. I think it’s even more of an advantage. Their home games are at a ground most other teams aren’t familiar with and the away games to their other Victorian clubs are played at the G or Marvel Stadium, so they still get plenty of games there.

It’s more of a disadvantage for interstate clubs because although they have a home ground advantage, they may only get to play at the G once a season.

 

[Vdubs]

That's just because they aren't that good.

Look at their 2018 record.

1-1 at Adelaide Oval
1-0 at Metricon
0-1 at Docklands vs WB
0-1 at Perth Stadium
1-0 at SCG
8-1 at Kardinia Park
2-6 at MCG

Most of their Kardinia Park games they would have won at Docklands/MCG. Both Melbourne games for example were close wins regardless of venue. Their record is stronger there partly because they play lesser Vic sides and non-Vic sides there. Our record there since the 90s is horrendous, but I imagine if we played them 10 times at Docklands instead we'd still only win a couple at most.

Their MCG losses were twice to Richmond (1st), twice to Hawthorn (4th - bogey side), once to Essendon who alternate between beating us in Perth and losing to Carlton and once to Melbourne (5th) in finals when they were flying.

The AFL are the only ones who can correct any imbalance and that's by evenly rotating which teams play at Kardinia Park which they won't do. Geelong should be able to play 0 or 11 home games there if they want.

Your intro line is it.

Ok mate. When you've wiped away the tears and spit from your keyboard you would realise Geelong played 9 genuine home games against sides who don't share the ground.

Where as the MCG tenants home games are often play against against fellow tenants which means 0 advantage

no tears, no spit
happy if some other teams use KP as their "home"
we are as entitled to 11 home games as every other team, no need to defend or attack that.

 

[ChookNorris]

To be really fair, how many other teams get to play 11 of their games at their home ground, not 9?
ALL, except Geelong maybe.
Playing home games v Pies, Hawks, Tigers, Demons at the G, is NOT a home game for GFC,
If we played 11 home games at Geelong, which would be novel, unprecedented, yet VERY FAIR, then we could talk about HGA being a double edged sword.
Right now, the inequities are an issue because we are not a super team, we are middle of the road, and playing any home game at the G is an advantage to the G team, surely.
The aim is to get there. Top 8. As this comp is inherently unfair in that we do not play each team twice, the only fair solution is to be given 11 HOME games at HOME. If we fail after getting there , so be it.
Personally, being Melbourne based, I selfishly like us playing at the G, but it is clearly not to our advantage.

Melbourne moves a couple of home games, as does North to Tassie, Hawks as well. There are more sides playing less that the 11 at home than you think.

 

[doppleganger]

Melbourne moves a couple of home games, as does North to Tassie, Hawks as well. There are more sides playing less that the 11 at home than you think.

Yep even the Pies play two ‘home’ games at Etihad.

One is always against an Etihad tenant, the other against a non-vic side who often has actually played as many, if not more, games at Etihad than the Pies have.

Do any Victorian clubs get 11 home games at one ground anymore?

Ground rationalisation has basically made ‘home’ ground concept redundant for the 9 Melbourne teams.

It is just about stadium contractual arrangements.

 

[noodle]

Personally, being Melbourne based, I selfishly like us playing at the G, but it is clearly not to our advantage.

I'm not sold on this. I agree that having games at a ground like Optus for WCE is a solid advantage during the season and into the early finals but what this does is inflate the teams credentials. A team like WC can be very good (without being great) and ride that success deep into the finals. They did that in 2017 when we lucked into the finals only to be blown away by a superior GWS. At some stage that team will be shown up as pretenders, when they can no longer count on the backing of the home ground advantage.

Geelong (like many of the other melbourne teams) on the other hand have to be a contender to be able to go deep into a finals series.

 

[Sttew]

When the team was good it didnt matter (07-11). This current Geelong team is not that good. They finish higher up the ladder because of their home games, but that's not a disadvantage if anything it's a big advantage.

When they are good: They make finals regardless.
When they aren't that good: They make finals with some help of a home ground.

It's a pretty sweet deal.

And if/when they are real bad, they may not win at home. This was happening before 2007

 

[Topkent]

Your intro line is it.

no tears, no spit
happy if some other teams use KP as their "home"
we are as entitled to 11 home games as every other team, no need to defend or attack that.

Because you have no idea what you are talking about.

Melbourne has 9 games at the MCG as the home side this year aswell.

 

[juss]

And if/when they are real bad, they may not win at home. This was happening before 2007

Yeh agree, I'd say it's of the most benefit when the team is middle of road in the AFL, because it probably helps boost a few extra wins. When they are really good or really bad they will win/lose anywhere regardless

 

[Dr Tigris]

My read of the double edged sword. They win more often at home. Being a middle ranked team that gets them into the finals. But not to a GF.

This does 3 negative things - in order form less serious to more serious IMHO.
1) The team is structured to play Kardinia Park, and so struggles on wider grounds. Surely coaches can deal with that, it's not rocket science.
2) Worse draft picks. At the margin Geelong lose a couple of places in each round. So, only the first round matters any. Good drafting and development will cover that change in draft place fairly easily. However, if Geelong 'bottomed out' they'd likely get really good draft picks, and winning more games at home means it's really hard to fully bottom out. But teams that bottom out often find it's a trap and stay down for a long time. Aiming for early picks is a double edged sword in itself. It means you suck, and that makes it harder to inculcate youngsters into good habits and to attract good players.
3) Winning a few more games and making finals mean that the GFC management have less incentive to properly rebuild and go for the cup in a few years time. Patching and fixing up issues will keep finals happening. So the home ground advantage is a factor in the club inadvertently aiming for mediocrity.

That's my take on what this thread is about.
- HGA isn't a real problem unless the team cannot adapt to play other teams elsewhere. In which case they ain't going to win the premiership anyway.
- Draft picks is only a little important as long as you draft and develop well.
- Culture, attitude and managerial decision making can slowly stifle the club due to complacency because of a couple of extra wins each year due to the home ground, not being a better footy team.

 

[Scotland]

Yeh agree, I'd say it's of the most benefit when the team is middle of road in the AFL, because it probably helps boost a few extra wins. When they are really good or really bad they will win/lose anywhere regardless

This is probably fair.

They are 8-1 this year at KP and 5-9 everywhere else including finals finishing 8th. That's smack bang in the middle of the road.

I know from watching my team our record is 8-1-14 at KP which isn't that bad overall, but it was 7-5 in 1999 so you can work out what it has been this century. Geelong were still a good team in the late 80s and 90s but it's not like they were unbeatable at home. Recent years have definitely been skewed by a great period for them and the AFL's fixturing.

 

[JohnZ]

Not really, they have lost all their recent finals in Geelong anyway

Statisically insignificant as it represents a sample to small out of the total sample.

 

[Alphonse_]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but it seems to me that Interstate clubs like The Swans have had more luck winning at Kardina Park in recent years, than Victorian Club regulars like North Melbourne and The Dogs ?

Geelong's main problem atm is what i perceive to be a stale coaching and possibly recruiting staff. Not saying Chris Scott and Stephen Wells are bad at their jobs, far from it, but maybe its time for new blood to freshen the place up.

May also have to go backwards to go fowards, from a draft picks point of view, they have traded away several first round picks in the past 5 years, eventually that lull in top end talent will come home to roost.

 

[STPer18]

The AFL generally fixture weak teams to play us down at Geelong, effectively neutralising much of the home ground advantage. We'd beat most teams we play down here on the moon. Apart from a depleted GWS team, the only other 'quality' sides we played at Kardinia Park in 2018 were the Swans (lost by 17 points), and Melbourne (won by 2 points after the siren).

St.Kilda, Carlton, North, Brisbane, Fremantle and Gold Coast were the six other teams we played down here, none of which made finals, none of which were quality teams this season, and therefore we beat them all quite easily, just as we would have at the MCG, Etihad, Metricon, etc.

The home ground advantage at Geelong is hardly as effective as many make out due to the fixturing. If we were to play more teams around the top end of the ladder, then it'd be a different story.

 

[Turnover]

Does the home ground advantage keep Geelong competitive enough to think it doesn't need a major overhaul, where in fact it does?

Major overhaul. This is bullshit. Geelong have made the finals for yonks, make finals and your a chance for a flag. Hey any team could come up against Richmond and Cotchin will choose against the wind, always a chance.

 

[Vdubs]

Geelong's home ground advantage is symptomatic of lazy journalism.

As a WC fan I see it every few years. 2005/6 we were a top 2 side and Subiaco was a fortress, a 'house of pain'. Two whole years later I watched Geelong beat us by 135. Everyone suspiciously quiet about the supposed advantage.

I'd be interested to see how people reckon Geelong would have gone this year if they played 11 home games in Melbourne. St Kilda, Sydney, GWS, Carlton, North, Melbourne, Brisbane, Fremantle, Gold Coast. 8-1 W-L record. I don't see that drastically changing. Maybe they'd be better at the MCG if they played their home games on a ground with similar dimensions but it didn't seem to matter in 2007, 2009 and 2011 when they were flogging teams at KP and schooling MCG tenants in the finals so why does it matter now?

That Cats team lost 1 game for that season, until 08 GF, and was a super team, coming off the 07 GF.
Why would a Cats team want to play 11 home games in Melbourne? We are not a Melbourne team. We would have been close to losing to NM, lost to Swans, I suspect Carlton would have beaten us, as would Demons.
That's the whole essence of why it matters now. In those glory years we beat all teams everywhere, and we were brilliant. Now, the only way we get near the 8 is our home games, but we should have 11 of them anyway, just as being in an equitable comp.

 

[Vdubs]

Because you have no idea what you are talking about.

Melbourne has 9 games at the MCG as the home side this year aswell.

How many games at the G do you play? I don't care if you share it with others. I wouldn't care if you made KP your home ground, as did NM, Dogs, and we played away games there against you.