Is GWS's premiership window about to close?

Remove this Banner Ad

GC2015

Club Legend
May 27, 2013
2,292
2,621
AFL Club
Gold Coast
No. I still see a team of superstars, who probably need a bit of a reality check and attitude shift. Any team with Whitfield, Greene, Kelly, Cogs and Haynes you can't write off. Those 5 are among the top players in the competition. If Greene can get his body right, and not get suspended, I was saying the other night he could possibly win a Brownlow.

Losing Williams and Cameron will hurt but like others in the thread have said, could also be a blessing in disguise.
Retaining Josh Kelly next year is the next biggest problem for the Giants. He has a 2021 opt out clause in his contract and will become a free agent if he chooses to opt out. So he's essentially uncontracted and about to become a free agent.

They don't have an AFL standard ruckman. Jacobs just retired. Mumford is turning 35. Davis, De Boer, Reid and Ward are turning 31 over the next 12 months. Corr and Shaw are leaving. They are going to lose some of their top end draft depth like Hately and Caldwell.

This is going to be a very different side in 2021 and more pain may be coming their way via Josh Kelly.
 

AFDogs

Premiership Player
Sep 9, 2014
4,732
6,004
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Retaining Josh Kelly next year is the next biggest problem for the Giants. He has a 2021 opt out clause in his contract and will become a free agent if he chooses to opt out. So he's essentially uncontracted and about to become a free agent.

They don't have an AFL standard ruckman. Jacobs just retired. Mumford is turning 35. Davis, De Boer, Reid and Ward are turning 31 over the next 12 months. Corr and Shaw are leaving. They are going to lose some of their top end draft depth like Hately and Caldwell.

This is going to be a very different side in 2021 and more pain may be coming their way via Josh Kelly.
You think Josh Kelly is leaving? Seems to like it up there. I'd back them in to retain him.
 

Bungeye

Club Legend
Aug 19, 2017
1,296
946
AFL Club
Collingwood
The window is firmly shut and you really don't want to poke the bear in there.

Theres lots of stories to unfold and doors will open up, but this isn't some play school spoof, this sh*t is real life man!
 

Log in to remove this ad.

GC2015

Club Legend
May 27, 2013
2,292
2,621
AFL Club
Gold Coast
You think Josh Kelly is leaving? Seems to like it up there. I'd back them in to retain him.
Pure speculation. Any one can leave, but he has committed to 2028 (albeit with clauses), so of all the players in the comp who may leave he is well down the list.
He also signed that contract on the back of three consecutive finals series (which included two prelims). Very different situation now that they missed the finals in 2020 and lost significant players as a result.

Why do you think he added an opt out clause to his contract? The pressure is really on GWS to bounce right back next year in the hopes of retaining Kelly.
 

Giant Pete

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 17, 2013
5,129
4,834
AFL Club
GWS
Haynes Davis Whitfield
Ash Taylor Cumming
Kelly Taranto Perryman
Greene HH Cogs
Hill Ricca Daniels
Preuss Hopper Green

Ward Finlayson Buckley Lloyd

Let’s see.
 

GC2015

Club Legend
May 27, 2013
2,292
2,621
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Now Caldwell is going, to Essendon of all scummy ponds to land in!

Looks like you can add Zac Langdon and potentially Xavier O'Halloran to the list of 2020 departures as well. That's 6-7 in a matter of weeks and the season hasn't even ended yet.


It always surprised me when everyone seemed to overlook GWS's top end talent retention issues. Now people are starting to take notice but this has been an ongoing problem for a long time. Check this out from their top 30 draft picks over their initial five years of list building:

2010 Early Access
Retained:
Lost: Tom Bugg (Melbourne), Jeremy Cameron (Geelong), Sam Darley (Bulldogs), Josh Growden (delisted), Jarrod Harding (delisted), Jack Hombsch (Port Adelaide), Tim Golds (delisted), Dylan Shiel (Essendon), Adam Treloar (Collingwood), Simon Tunbridge (delisted), Gerald Ugle (delisted), Nathan Wilson (Fremantle)
Retention: 0/12 (0%)

2011 Draft
Retained: Stephen Coniglio (#2), Matt Buntine (#5), Nick Haynes (#7), Toby Greene (#11)
Lost: Jonathan Patton (#1 - Hawthorn), Dom Tyson (#3 - Melbourne), Will Hoskin-Elliott (#4 - Collingwood), Adam Tomlinson (#9 - Melbourne), Liam Sumner (#10 - Carlton), Taylor Adams (#13 - Collingwood), Devon Smith (#14 - Essendon)
Retention rate: 4/11 (36%)

2012 Draft
Retained: Lachie Whitfield (#1)
Lost: Jonathan Rourke (#2 - Hawthorn), Lachie Plowman (#3 - Carlton), Kristian Jaksch (#12 - Carlton), Aidan Corr (#14 - North), James Stewart (#27 - Essendon)
Retention rate: 1/6 (16.6%)

2013 Draft
Retained: Josh Kelly (#2)
Lost: Tom Boyd (#1 - Bulldogs), Cam McCarthy (#14 - Fremantle), Rory Lobb (#29 - Fremantle)
Retention rate: 1/4 (25%)

2014 Draft
Retained: Nil
Lost: Jarrod Pickett (#4 - Carlton), Caleb Marchbank (#6 - Carlton), Paul Ahern (#7 - North), Pat McKenna (#23 - delisted), Jack Steele (#24 - St Kilda)
Retention rate: 0/5 (0%)

Just 6 of 38 (15.7%) have stuck around from their initial five years of top 30 drafting! Remember, this is a team that has competed in 4 the last 5 finals series and were in the Grand Final just over 12 months ago. I understand no club is perfect when it comes to drafting and there will always be dud picks along the way but only 6 of the 38 listed above were actually delisted by the Giants and 5 of those 6 were a part of their initial 17 year old access which was probably more guesswork than smart drafting anyway. That means 26 of the 38 players listed above were traded from the Giants to another club and most are still on an AFL list to this day. Now they are starting to lose the younger players as well: Will Setterfield (2016 #5 - Carlton), Aiden Bonner (2017 #11 - North), Jye Caldwell (2018 #11 - Essendon), Jackson Hately (2018 #14 - Adelaide).

I don't see how anyone could possibly look at this evidence and not see an ongoing top end talent retention issue, despite on field success.
 

Dangerousfield

Club Legend
Oct 11, 2012
1,635
2,658
AFL Club
Adelaide
A lot of players stayed because they were so close to a flag, this year has exploded that idea (plus re-signed Leon) so they are jumping ship en masse to greener more homely pastures.

GWS will end up with yet another big high end draft haul, keeping them may continue to be a problem whilst kids are being offered big $ to go home to Melbourne. Need to improve on field to stop this happening.

The exodus will at least allow them to finally get the TPP under control and rest to a more normal setting
 

WillHayward

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 13, 2018
5,175
7,005
Newcastle
AFL Club
Sydney
Watching GWS play is pretty hard work. It looks like a job. No real joy or cohesion. Just 22 blokes going to work for a paycheck.

I think they need some joy in the joint. All looks so miserable. Like a Siberian salt mine working camp or something.
They are losing both players and fans in equal measure.
Just think they need a clean out including Leon.
They need fresh air and fast before it all unravels.
Place is being held up by $$ and not a lot else.
 

WillHayward

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 13, 2018
5,175
7,005
Newcastle
AFL Club
Sydney

Looks like you can add Zac Langdon and potentially Xavier O'Halloran to the list of 2020 departures as well. That's 6-7 in a matter of weeks and the season hasn't even ended yet.


It always surprised me when everyone seemed to overlook GWS's top end talent retention issues. Now people are starting to take notice but this has been an ongoing problem for a long time. Check this out from their top 30 draft picks over their initial five years of list building:

2010 Early Access
Retained:
Lost: Tom Bugg (Melbourne), Jeremy Cameron (Geelong), Sam Darley (Bulldogs), Josh Growden (delisted), Jarrod Harding (delisted), Jack Hombsch (Port Adelaide), Tim Golds (delisted), Dylan Shiel (Essendon), Adam Treloar (Collingwood), Simon Tunbridge (delisted), Gerald Ugle (delisted), Nathan Wilson (Fremantle)
Retention: 0/12 (0%)

2011 Draft
Retained: Stephen Coniglio (#2), Matt Buntine (#5), Nick Haynes (#7), Toby Greene (#11)
Lost: Jonathan Patton (#1 - Hawthorn), Dom Tyson (#3 - Melbourne), Will Hoskin-Elliott (#4 - Collingwood), Adam Tomlinson (#9 - Melbourne), Liam Sumner (#10 - Carlton), Taylor Adams (#13 - Collingwood), Devon Smith (#14 - Essendon)
Retention rate: 4/11 (36%)

2012 Draft
Retained: Lachie Whitfield (#1)
Lost: Jonathan Rourke (#2 - Hawthorn), Lachie Plowman (#3 - Carlton), Kristian Jaksch (#12 - Carlton), Aidan Corr (#14 - North), James Stewart (#27 - Essendon)
Retention rate: 1/6 (16.6%)

2013 Draft
Retained: Josh Kelly (#2)
Lost: Tom Boyd (#1 - Bulldogs), Cam McCarthy (#14 - Fremantle), Rory Lobb (#29 - Fremantle)
Retention rate: 1/4 (25%)

2014 Draft
Retained: Nil
Lost: Jarrod Pickett (#4 - Carlton), Caleb Marchbank (#6 - Carlton), Paul Ahern (#7 - North), Pat McKenna (#23 - delisted), Jack Steele (#24 - St Kilda)
Retention rate: 0/5 (0%)

Just 6 of 38 (15.7%) have stuck around from their initial five years of top 30 drafting! Remember, this is a team that has competed in 4 the last 5 finals series and were in the Grand Final just over 12 months ago. I understand no club is perfect when it comes to drafting and there will always be dud picks along the way but only 6 of the 38 listed above were actually delisted by the Giants and 5 of those 6 were a part of their initial 17 year old access which was probably more guesswork than smart drafting anyway. That means 26 of the 38 players listed above were traded from the Giants to another club and most are still on an AFL list to this day. Now they are starting to lose the younger players as well: Will Setterfield (2016 #5 - Carlton), Aiden Bonner (2017 #11 - North), Jye Caldwell (2018 #11 - Essendon), Jackson Hately (2018 #14 - Adelaide).

I don't see how anyone could possibly look at this evidence and not see an ongoing top end talent retention issue, despite on field success.
Good post.
Cannot ignore those numbers.
Something is crook.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Big_Luch

Club Legend
Apr 13, 2011
2,801
2,562
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
They were always going to lose players when TPP and list sizes reduced.

They always have picks so they are continually bringing in fresh talent around a solid core. They won't drop off for long if they drop down.

Seems to be the two reasons they haven't won a flag is players are always injured and Leon for mine isn't a good coach.
 

HairyO

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 13, 2015
24,621
26,338
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I think so. I think they are likely to fall off briefly for a season or two as they re-group. IMO, they are too blue-chip, in their self perceptions of their own team/club.

When they lose this attitude, then and only then, will they develop the 'Hunger', to fight, and to win.
A certain desperation is a required requisite for finals success.
A few years ago players were asked which opposition teams were the most lippy.

Hawthorn were first. Made sense. They were in the middle of an incredible run and had the strength and ability to punish teams. And they could get in their heads.

GWS were 2nd. Despite having achieved nothing. And being young and supposedly full of gifted players but with no runs on the board.

Imagine being a Geelong or Collingwood or Swans or Hawks player and a 20 year old who has no achievements starts mouthing off at you.

Imagine beingthe coach amd letting that happen.

Imagine still being the coach 6 years later with many of the same players and the same lack of success.
 

Giant Pete

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 17, 2013
5,129
4,834
AFL Club
GWS
A few years ago players were asked which opposition teams were the most lippy.

Hawthorn were first. Made sense. They were in the middle of an incredible run and had the strength and ability to punish teams. And they could get in their heads.

GWS were 2nd. Despite having achieved nothing. And being young and supposedly full of gifted players but with no runs on the board.

Imagine being a Geelong or Collingwood or Swans or Hawks player and a 20 year old who has no achievements starts mouthing off at you.

Imagine beingthe coach amd letting that happen.

Imagine still being the coach 6 years later with many of the same players and the same lack of success.
So they were like Sicily?
 

GWS Goose

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 14, 2011
5,198
9,038
Emu Plains
AFL Club
GWS

Looks like you can add Zac Langdon and potentially Xavier O'Halloran to the list of 2020 departures as well. That's 6-7 in a matter of weeks and the season hasn't even ended yet.


It always surprised me when everyone seemed to overlook GWS's top end talent retention issues. Now people are starting to take notice but this has been an ongoing problem for a long time. Check this out from their top 30 draft picks over their initial five years of list building:

2010 Early Access
Retained:
Lost: Tom Bugg (Melbourne), Jeremy Cameron (Geelong), Sam Darley (Bulldogs), Josh Growden (delisted), Jarrod Harding (delisted), Jack Hombsch (Port Adelaide), Tim Golds (delisted), Dylan Shiel (Essendon), Adam Treloar (Collingwood), Simon Tunbridge (delisted), Gerald Ugle (delisted), Nathan Wilson (Fremantle)
Retention: 0/12 (0%)

2011 Draft
Retained: Stephen Coniglio (#2), Matt Buntine (#5), Nick Haynes (#7), Toby Greene (#11)
Lost: Jonathan Patton (#1 - Hawthorn), Dom Tyson (#3 - Melbourne), Will Hoskin-Elliott (#4 - Collingwood), Adam Tomlinson (#9 - Melbourne), Liam Sumner (#10 - Carlton), Taylor Adams (#13 - Collingwood), Devon Smith (#14 - Essendon)
Retention rate: 4/11 (36%)

2012 Draft
Retained: Lachie Whitfield (#1)
Lost: Jonathan Rourke (#2 - Hawthorn), Lachie Plowman (#3 - Carlton), Kristian Jaksch (#12 - Carlton), Aidan Corr (#14 - North), James Stewart (#27 - Essendon)
Retention rate: 1/6 (16.6%)

2013 Draft
Retained: Josh Kelly (#2)
Lost: Tom Boyd (#1 - Bulldogs), Cam McCarthy (#14 - Fremantle), Rory Lobb (#29 - Fremantle)
Retention rate: 1/4 (25%)

2014 Draft
Retained: Nil
Lost: Jarrod Pickett (#4 - Carlton), Caleb Marchbank (#6 - Carlton), Paul Ahern (#7 - North), Pat McKenna (#23 - delisted), Jack Steele (#24 - St Kilda)
Retention rate: 0/5 (0%)

Just 6 of 38 (15.7%) have stuck around from their initial five years of top 30 drafting! Remember, this is a team that has competed in 4 the last 5 finals series and were in the Grand Final just over 12 months ago. I understand no club is perfect when it comes to drafting and there will always be dud picks along the way but only 6 of the 38 listed above were actually delisted by the Giants and 5 of those 6 were a part of their initial 17 year old access which was probably more guesswork than smart drafting anyway. That means 26 of the 38 players listed above were traded from the Giants to another club and most are still on an AFL list to this day. Now they are starting to lose the younger players as well: Will Setterfield (2016 #5 - Carlton), Aiden Bonner (2017 #11 - North), Jye Caldwell (2018 #11 - Essendon), Jackson Hately (2018 #14 - Adelaide).

I don't see how anyone could possibly look at this evidence and not see an ongoing top end talent retention issue, despite on field success.
Do everyone elses drafts, I reckon you'll find that is about average.
The last 4 years there have been a lot of salary cap pressure as well.
Good post.
Cannot ignore those numbers.
Something is crook.
Perhaps the Salary cap taking force. Been under cap pressure forever and have had a continual run of early picks that are hard to keep when they mature, we normally swap them for more picks and the trend continues.

Look at the players that left this year as an example.
Hately and Langdon both outside the 22 went for opportunity and returned to their home state.
Caldwell, ZWilliams and Corr all got huge offers that we couldn't/wouldn't match.
JCameron a combination of going home and I think being sold the Geelong dream. However, all the talk is about how happy he was up here.

Given that most players aren't from here, it often takes less to move them which hurts. An extra few dollars or more opportunity and getting to home is one extra thing we deal with a bit more often.
 

GC2015

Club Legend
May 27, 2013
2,292
2,621
AFL Club
Gold Coast
I wonder if GWS will find a way to bounce back from here. Losing Cameron and Williams is massive (and to a lesser extent Corr, Hately, Caldwell and Langdon hurts too) but they also acquired Jesse Hogan which helps, even though Jesse comes with problems. A lot of people have identified the ruck as their biggest problem and they were able to convince Braydon Preuss to join the club this off season. They are also supposedly in the process of trying to use picks 13, 15 and 20 to trade up and acquire another top 10 pick to go with their existing pick 10. So it's probably fair to assume GWS will likely bring in at least two top 10 picks at the upcoming draft.

Will that be enough to stem the tide though? Will 2020 be seen as minor inconvenience on the way to GWS reaching the ultimate success or are the Giants really on the verge of crumbling and cementing a place in the bottom 10 for the foreseeable future? Perhaps retaining Josh Kelly is the key for the Giants. He can choose to become a free agent next year and their midfield is a lot weaker without him.
 

PJays

All Australian
Nov 2, 2020
755
861
AFL Club
St Kilda
GWS has

- Lots of top talent- Greene, Kelly, Whitfield, Haynes, Taranto, Hopper, Coniglio and none of those guys are particularly old

- 4 picks in the top 20

That tells me their window will remain open for several years to come.

Hogan averaged at least 2 goals a game in each of his first 4 seasons. How many players in AFL have ever done that? If he works hard and really commits, his talent will come to the fore and he'll replace (most of) what Cameron was doing.

GWS are in OK shape, as long as they keep stockpiling draft picks when they lose players

Leon Cameron must be feeling the pressure though
 
Last edited:

Rimmer

Club Legend
May 7, 2008
1,589
2,052
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
I think that horse has bolted. The AFL gifted them a super team with all sorts of concessions and Sheedy set them up to succeed. I don't think Leon Cameron is a bad coach I just think they needed a different type of coach and coaching staff to make them play better as a group. Sometimes you can have too many guns playing more as individuals when you need bit players who excel in specialist roles.

If Sheedy had stayed on it's hard to believe they would not have won at least one premiership.
 

Remove this Banner Ad