Is it time to change our drafting strategy ?

OldSchool

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Thread starter #1
Over the last few years under Scott Claytons guidance the Dogs have assembled a fairly good young crop of players using a basic formula of picking the best players available with the first few picks and then balancing up the squads requirements with later selections.
It has given us some exciting players like Murphy, Guido, McMahon, Birss and Sam Power.
Last year there was a concerted effort to obtain some taller KP type players that the team has been crying out for when we drafted Walsh, Minson, Bassett, Wight and these selections were of course topped up with the exciting Cam Faulkner and Brad Murphy. This was a fairly good return from our selections.
We are obviously trying to build a team of the future by assembling a balanced squad that is quick, tall and skillful.

One problem that has been evident is our lack of physical size of our younger players which means that we are always waiting a season or two longer for these guys to fill out before they can ply their trade at the senior level. Players like Murphy, Guido, Gilbee and Hargrave are never going to have the bigger type frames but are all quality selections from Claytons first harvest.
We have also players like McMahon, Birss and Power that are never going to be physical type players.

My question is that given that the club appeared to modify it selections last year to suit the clubs long term plans, should they continue down that road of change and consider selecting more physically ready type players to compliment the longer term selections we have been making ?

My view is that we might be at the right stage of the clubs development where we have to bite the bullet and go for some bigger guys.

Any thoughts ?
 

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#2
The coach has a fair bit of say in the style of player he wants.

When you look at many of the players drafted under Wallace/Clayton there are many of the slighter framed but quick and skilful types.

I'm sure Rhode will have other ideas as to the type of player he wants to fulfill his game plan ambitions. If more accountability is an integral part of the playing style he wants then he may well demand these types of players be sought.

I think we have a fairly balanced list sizewise if not age and development wise.

We should be able to revert back to a best player available policy at the next draft.

Just one thought on Geelong's recruiting strategy. They seem to go predominantly for midfielders that are 185-190cm (ie Corey, Enright, Ling etc) and it seems to be paying immediate dividends. Interesting that Hahn was the first of the Clayton kids to play and he is in that size group.
 

OldSchool

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Thread starter #3
The Geelong example of going for the bigger frames is a good one. Those players are developing nicely and I would expect them to be a serious contender in 2004

Regarding Hahn, I think that this season will either make or break Mitch. If he can improve the quality of his disposal and stay injury free then he will really give us the stronger big bodied run with type player we are looking for.
 

Chops

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#4
Great question.
I suppose it will change by default when Clayton leaves.
Personally I think it (draft policy) changes every year slightly anyway occuring o the coaches wants. We know Clayton saying of talent before size. I think Doc saids something about drafting the best available at the time and trading for the players you lack in certain areas. Agree there. Its a lot of guess work I suppose.

A few questions of mine.
Who are the best recruiting guys around?
How much of Brisbane's success is of Clayton's doing and how much is Kinnear Beetson's?
Are you saying Clayton isn't as good as he is made out to be or the wrong type of recruiter for us?
Are we just being impatience?
Do we have the right approach to make these drafts reach full potential?

I find it hard to blame recruiters for our recent lack of sucess in finals and over the past 2 seasons. Most of the time they do want the coach wants them to. I blame the vunerability of our game plan under pressure. We've relied on short term fixes too often. Lack of opportunities for the young talls meant we still don't know if they are good enough.

A bit off the topic but I think Wallace had a good vison for us and had a great game plan at time. Unfortunately it didn't work under pressure and then other teams worked us out. He couldn't change or reinvent himself/the team and I don't know why. Maybe he was too close?
 

OldSchool

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Thread starter #5
Originally posted by Chops
Great question.
I suppose it will change by default when Clayton leaves.
Personally I think it (draft policy) changes every year slightly anyway occuring o the coaches wants. We know Clayton saying of talent before size. I think Doc saids something about drafting the best available at the time and trading for the players you lack in certain areas. Agree there. Its a lot of guess work I suppose.

A few questions of mine.
Who are the best recruiting guys around?
How much of Brisbane's success is of Clayton's doing and how much is Kinnear Beetson's?
Are you saying Clayton isn't as good as he is made out to be or the wrong type of recruiter for us?
Are we just being impatience?
Do we have the right approach to make these drafts reach full potential?

I find it hard to blame recruiters for our recent lack of sucess in finals and over the past 2 seasons. Most of the time they do want the coach wants them to. I blame the vunerability of our game plan under pressure. We've relied on short term fixes too often. Lack of opportunities for the young talls meant we still don't know if they are good enough.

A bit off the topic but I think Wallace had a good vison for us and had a great game plan at time. Unfortunately it didn't work under pressure and then other teams worked us out. He couldn't change or reinvent himself/the team and I don't know why. Maybe he was too close?
In answering your questions:

1/ The best recruiting managers of junior talent imo are Judkins, Wells and Clayton. The toughest negotiator for trades is Stewart.

2/ I think a lot of Brisbanes success can be attributed to Claytons quality selections. Beatson has just run with the program that Clayton set-up for him although he has continued the good work.
We can argue about some of the favourable outcomes the Lions have been able to gain over several seasons but a lot of the success they have achieved has been done at the draft selection table.

3/ I think Clayton is right up there with the best selectors in the country and he has done a great job all things considered with the Doggies. I dont think he is the wrong guy for us and he appears willing to change his selection criteria when required which is a good sign for a recruiting manager.

4/ Are we being impatient ? Perhaps but I was more looking at balancing the squad because you really cant keep going for the under developed types and expect results anytime soon.

5/ Generally I am a strong advocate for picking the best player available with early selections and the club has always seemed to follow that criteria. Perhaps now is the right time to reconsider that logic
 

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#6
This a very interesting thread, and deserves a bit of thought. But 2 quick questions:

1. Can we properly judge this strategy right now?

2. Are there better models/strategies to follow? (better=proven/successful)

Must say I was thinking about this myself.
 

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Thread starter #7
Originally posted by Dry Rot
This a very interesting thread, and deserves a bit of thought. But 2 quick questions:

1. Can we properly judge this strategy right now?

2. Are there better models/strategies to follow? (better=proven/successful)

Must say I was thinking about this myself.
1. I think it is OK to review the strategy now. We have the foundation in place however, we have been recruiting a lot on long term 'work in progress' types and there comes a time when you have to look at a quicker fix to compliment your list.
Because trading for star players is a little out of our scope at the moment the only way to address the imbalance is via our draft selections.

2. I think Geelong and Collingwood are just two examples of clubs getting the balance right between drafting for the future and addressing your shorter term needs.
 

Dry Rot

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#8
My best guess (sadly) is that Brown will follow the dollars next season.

If so, do we go for a deal with a great draft pick or go for an established quality tall forward or ruckman?
 

OldSchool

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Thread starter #9
Originally posted by Dry Rot
My best guess (sadly) is that Brown will follow the dollars next season.

If so, do we go for a deal with a great draft pick or go for an established quality tall forward or ruckman?
I'm not convinced that Brown will follow the dollars but he would bring a premium at the trade table if he decided to leave
 

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#10
Very interesting thread this.
I would just like to add that I would like to see one more draft that is influenced by Rohde/Clayton rather than Wallace/Clayton and see what that presents us.
You are all right,if you use Brisbane, Collingwood and Port as yardsticks the Dogs definitely need to bulk up whether that is via the draft or picking up talented skinny kids and giving them time to bulk up.
 

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#11
Not so sure about skinny with talent v. not skinny but less talent.
I think that depends on the individual player.

However I do think we have to draft a balanced team tall-wise. The most rare and expensive player in the game is a quality tall forward, and when you trade for an established star you always pay a premium, which makes trading for these types even more expensive. We cant afford to compete in that kind of market so we have to grow our own.
 

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Thread starter #12
Originally posted by SCRAY72
Very interesting thread this.
I would just like to add that I would like to see one more draft that is influenced by Rohde/Clayton rather than Wallace/Clayton and see what that presents us.
You are all right,if you use Brisbane, Collingwood and Port as yardsticks the Dogs definitely need to bulk up whether that is via the draft or picking up talented skinny kids and giving them time to bulk up.
Thats a fair point.
The reason why I raised the issue of amending the draft strategy is that when you look at out list closely we have a great balance of talls, smalls and utility types however, most are still 'work in progress' type players. We actually have a very shallow list of physically ready players. Even great prospects like Murphy, Guido, McMahon and Power were played before their time because of our list. Teams like the Lions and Port can afford to let players develop because of the strength of their lists. I'm not sure we have that luxury.
In the short term we wil lose Croft and Kretiuk and in another two to three years we must have players to take over from Grant and co.
To cover Croft in the short term we have Bassett and Harris.
To cover Kretiuk we have Hahn or Hargrave
Looking forward:
To cover Grant we will hopefully have Walsh who was our most significant investment over the last several years.
We also have a few other promising tall forwards, defenders and ruck options like Minson, Harris, Skipper, Bruton and Wight.
Other than Minson and Harris, the balance have tended to be longer term prospects.

We can continue to go down the trusted 'best available' road as it does get results and has served us well however, it takes a lot longer to get these players to the physically ready senior requirment.
If we were to draft a couple of ready to go players it would certainly strengthen our list in the short term and balance well with the longer term players we have.
We might get to the stage of having several young players all vying for senior selection at the same time and really putting pressure of the established players to perform. To me, that is what the successful clubs have been able to do.
 

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#13
Excellent analysis OldSchool.
I have said in an earlier thread that the only way we will improve is if one or two of the following group (Skipper, Wiggins, Bowden, Harris, Bruton) step up, otherwise I don't like our chances.
All the rhetoric about "talented young list" means nothing if Kingsley, Lloyd, Tredrea, Whitnall, Ottens, Thompson, Neitz kill us every time we play them.
 

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Thread starter #14
Originally posted by SCRAY72
Excellent analysis OldSchool.
I have said in an earlier thread that the only way we will improve is if one or two of the following group (Skipper, Wiggins, Bowden, Harris, Bruton) step up, otherwise I don't like our chances.
All the rhetoric about "talented young list" means nothing if Kingsley, Lloyd, Tredrea, Whitnall, Ottens, Thompson, Neitz kill us every time we play them.
I tend to think that we need three out of the five players that you quoted to step up and become regular senior contributors or we will continue to struggle with our results. Being optimistic, I would like to see perhaps four of the players make it
 

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#15
Originally posted by OldSchool
I tend to think that we need three out of the five players that you quoted to step up and become regular senior contributors or we will continue to struggle with our results. Being optimistic, I would like to see perhaps four of the players make it
Bit rough canning our talls at this at this stage considering our midfield performances have been our achiles heel so far for Rhodes.

By all accounts Lloyd was getting the ball laces out on a silver platter, wasnt he?
 

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#16
Maybe its the trading strategy thats the problem.

While its wise in a way to trade off senior/fringe players for picks while they're still worth something, what also happens is that your side loses experience and cohesion and you end up fielding a team of kids....you basically restart your team culture instead of evolving it, and thats a risky and delicate task, as I'm sure Freo and St Kilda fans would agree.

Of course, as part of your overall recruiting strategy its highly likely that your trading strategy will change soon. What you need to do is start trading for decent quality players that can fill gaps in your side and be an example, and not worry about having high draft picks every year.
 

OldSchool

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Thread starter #17
Originally posted by stefoid
Bit rough canning our talls at this at this stage considering our midfield performances have been our achiles heel so far for Rhodes.

By all accounts Lloyd was getting the ball laces out on a silver platter, wasnt he?
I don't think I was canning the talls but if three our four of them could become regular senior players our team would improve no question.

As for Lloyd, he was getting the ball kicked nicely into space. Really wasn't a lot Bassett could do. Kretiuk also struggled with him
 

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#18
Originally posted by Chops

impatience?

thats the key word in this debate if you ask me.

We are expecting so much from the younger players Clayton has brought in yet most of them are barely 21. We can't realistically be expecting these guys to be ripping teams apart. They will peak once they reach 23+.

The problem we have is in players in the 23+ range. And again we can go back to the Kleiman days. We have only 7 players left from his 6 - 7 year reign of terror.

* They are Johnson, Alvey and Brown with 1st round picks
* Darcy as a father/son selection
* Garlick and Robbins as trades
* Dimma as a pre-season draft pick

thats it. PLayers from this period are the ones who would now be at their peaks. Unfortunately they are at other clubs because we couldn't identify very well them back then. I also think we came out on the debit side of a number of trades where we gave away too much for what was received (but thats another argument)

Not one key position player remains from the Kleiman days and this is where we are weak. I also think that Wallace had a midget recruiting strategy which explains to me why we recruited many smalls, despite having an abundance of them, in the 96 - 98 period.

Clayton has done a superb job especially when you consider what we have given him to work with. The drafts of 1999 and 2001 are considered 2 of the best ever. In 99 we gave him one pick in the first 30 despite trading numerous senior players. In 2001 we gave him one pick in the top 40. We got Murphy and Power with those picks. You can't expect the guy to much better than that. The best key position players will be snapped up very early as they are harder to find. He has however been able to find players with late picks who have played senior footy and they will play many more. 2002 is the first time he has had a high pick to use and he has used it wisely on a very competent young key possie player.

The majority of players on our list are now Clayton kids. All in the 18-21yo bracket. We have a very young list so we have to be patient. I think we will be able to judge Claytons boys more reasonably in 2 years time when the first group reach their peak footy years of 23 - 24yo.
 

OldSchool

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Thread starter #19
Originally posted by Porthos
Maybe its the trading strategy thats the problem.
We have had some problems in that area but it was generally before Claytons time at the club. The problem we now have is our capacity to attract quality players to the club. Its only a few seasons ago but we couldn't even get Martin Pike to return our calls when he was looking around for a club after Fitzroy fell over. I feel that our future success really does rest at the draft table and Clayton is the right man for us
 

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#20
Ill reopen an old wound and ask what did we get for Stephen Powell? Its a pretty interesting question when you consider we really need a mature-bodied, hard ball getter in the midfield with decent disposal.

If there is any finger you can point at wallace in relation to his speed before hardness policy, its Powell out, Eagleton in.
 
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#21
Here is another view. Accidently started this as a new thread instead of adding to this thread. Below....

I'm no expert in draft selections and it is too early to tell on most players drafted over the last couple of years but....

Unless Clatyon was following Wallace's orders I don't think he is a great recruiter. Why?

1) Too many small, light weight onballers and not enough height. This has been an issues for many season's and finally only addressed last year.

2) I would have thought with our height and weight problem's we would have drafted players ready to play sooner. Eg: Lay**** number 10 or so with Essendon will play this year and so will the tall from Geelong forgot his name. Walsh will not play this year and we will be lucky to see him next year. I doubt our other talls will either. Thats means by 2005 we may get a return. We needed to draft guys who may give us something this year and we are crying out for good talls. Skipper, Bruton, Harris and to a lesser extent Wiggens and never going to be classed as "good players". They are servicable at best.
Unfortunately our smalls are the only chance of us making the finals this year.

These two points will be highlighted if Bandy, Darcy, Grant or Croft get injured. Imagine if two or three of them are injured at once.

Height and weight should have been addressed earlier and anyone who says "take the best avaible talent" in my mind is an idiot. Take what your sides needs, isn't that obvious!!!

For the stats buffs, go through the last 7 or so premiership winners. They are always in the top five weight and height averages for the year. I did it a couple of seasons ago.
I remember Blight saying once "I believe the strongest team physically and mentally will always come out on top".

The game has changed and I wouldn't draft anyone under 6 foot, even for onball positions. Every physical sport in the world is getting bigger, faster and stronger. Aussie Rules will be no different.
 
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#22
To add a bit more...

I suppose my point is given our financial stituation and ageing star list, I would not have drafted development talls. Both my father and I get frusted by the size diffence between our club and others. Even Sam Power as a first selection 2001 to me was strange. We have enough players of that mode. Both you and I could name 5 or so later picks who have played AFL who would have filled our needs as a club better. Not to say he wont become a great player just others could have been more vital to our sucess.

Time will tell, but can we afford the time?
 

OldSchool

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Thread starter #23
Originally posted by stefoid
Ill reopen an old wound and ask what did we get for Stephen Powell? Its a pretty interesting question when you consider we really need a mature-bodied, hard ball getter in the midfield with decent disposal.

If there is any finger you can point at wallace in relation to his speed before hardness policy, its Powell out, Eagleton in.
No question in my mind that the trade for Eagle has hurt us when you consider we coughed up Powell, Monty and a draft pick for a talented but under performing player.
IMO Powell would be playing alongside of West which would give us a real presence in the midfield
 

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#24
Im a glutton for punishment. Which draft pick in which draft?

Monty I can take or leave. Powell knows how to get his hands on the ball.
 

OldSchool

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Thread starter #25
Originally posted by stefoid
Im a glutton for punishment. Which draft pick in which draft?

Monty I can take or leave. Powell knows how to get his hands on the ball.
Selection 28, Brent Guerra

It was the 99 draft, we also moved on Michael Martin for Bartlett and pick 32 (Guido) and Leon Cameron for picks 37 (Hahn) and 66 (Hargrave). I think we also got Wiggins during the Monty and Powell trade
 
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