Opinion Is Our Flag Window Shut?

[Daemon]

Good discussions in here.

I think the competition has evened up a lot, with a few more teams taking the step up and we have stagnated (with a few individuals going backwards). You only need to have an "off" day to lose to a team that is slightly below you. Unfortunately we have had 2/5 "off" days this year, which, if it continues is a worrying trend and one that will ultimately cost us.

I don't think our flag window is shut, but on current form with an unwillingness to drop non performing veterans, I don't believe we can win the flag this year. Hopefully I'm wrong and changes to attitude and personnel are made.

 

[Topkent]

This year's reminding me more of 90's/ 00s footy. Not quite the 15th place teams beating 2nd by 60 points but does seem like big margins are happening to good teams more than they have been lately.

 

[Dory_77]

This year's reminding me more of 90's/ 00s footy. Not quite the 15th place teams beating 2nd by 60 points but does seem like big margins are happening to good teams more than they have been lately.

Yeah once one side gets a roll on they can really pile on the goals.
Each team has also had at least one shit game so far, so we're not alone in stinking it up but it is a concern that we've done it twice already and it's issues we've had for a loooong time that keep cropping up.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

It’s not shut but we need a fresh generation with a bit of get up and go to take over from the bottom half of the 21 Premiership side.

Rivers, Bowey, McVee, Chandler, JVR etc have just as much if not more potential to help Clarry, Trac, Gawn, May win another flag as the likes of ANB, Spargo, Sparrow, Brown did.

That latter group is just bringing no spark and can’t play at the level of intensity required to match it with good teams or even average teams who have a good day in the contest.

 

[Guy Threepwood]

So since the new finals system came in, no team has ever won it from 4th and only 3 teams have made the GF ( Geelong 20, Sydney 06, Collingwood 02)

So only the top 3 really have a chance as it's evenly distributed between them as winners. So you only need 3 teams better than us and if we are gonna play like s**t every 2-3 weeks that won't be hard.

Remind me, was it 1st, 2nd or 3rd that the Bulldogs finished in 2016 when going on to win the flag?

 

[Topkent]

Remind me, was it 1st, 2nd or 3rd that the Bulldogs finished in 2016 when going on to win the flag?

What's ya point nerd.

 

[Topkent]

Yeah let's aim to finish 7th and win the flag what a plan

 

[Guy Threepwood]

Yeah let's aim to finish 7th and win the flag what a plan

Odd way of saying whoops, I was wrong. You do you though.

 

[Topkent]

Odd way of saying whoops, I was wrong. You do you though.

No teams even won it finishing 4th, so back in ya box chief.

 

[Guy Threepwood]

No teams even won it finishing 4th, so back in ya box chief.

A team has shown its possible to win it under the new finals system when finishing outside the top 3. Feel free to just take the L and move on.

 

[Topkent]

A team has shown its possible to win it under the new finals system when finishing outside the top 3. Feel free to just take the L and move on.

Wasn't my argument was it feel free to back the truck up now you realize you didn't read it properly

 

[Johnny Karate]

It’s not shut but we need a fresh generation with a bit of get up and go to take over from the bottom half of the 21 Premiership side.

Rivers, Bowey, McVee, Chandler, JVR etc have just as much if not more potential to help Clarry, Trac, Gawn, May win another flag as the likes of ANB, Spargo, Sparrow, Brown did.

That latter group is just bringing no spark and can’t play at the level of intensity required to match it with good teams or even average teams who have a good day in the contest.

It’s chicken and the egg. When young players come in and perform well, it’s absolutely exciting. The performances of Sparrow, Bowey, Rivers, Jackson and Pickett were fantastic in the 21 Finals series/GF but we wouldn’t have won anything without Petracca and Oliver smashing through the front of stoppage, Gawn dominating the air and May/Lever running defence. Superstars lead the way and youngsters & role players join the pile on.

That said, we need to stop picking the likes of the cooked McDonald, Brown and Melksham unless it’s an absolute injury crisis because we almost need 2 extra role players to cover their deficiencies. You’re also spot on that we need a number of players to lift their performances a grade or two. But, I reckon Pickett joining the superstar brigade would have a bigger impact than anything else.

 

[Topkent]

It’s chicken and the egg. When young players come in and perform well, it’s absolutely exciting. The performances of Sparrow, Bowey, Rivers, Jackson and Pickett were fantastic in the 21 Finals series/GF but we wouldn’t have won anything without Petracca and Oliver smashing through the front of stoppage, Gawn dominating the air and May/Lever running defence. Superstars lead the way and youngsters & role players join the pile on.

That said, we need to stop picking the likes of the cooked McDonald, Brown and Melksham unless it’s an absolute injury crisis because we almost need 2 extra role players to cover their deficiencies. You’re also spot on that we need a number of players to lift their performances a grade or two. But, I reckon Pickett joining the superstar brigade would have a bigger impact than anything else.

Yep no one will ever change my opinion on this. You don't even need to coach Spargo and Rivers, just get Gawn, May, Lever, Fritsch, Trac, Pickett and Oliver playing at an AA level and we're half way to a flag.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Yep no one will ever change my opinion on this. You don't even need to coach Spargo and Rivers, just get Gawn, May, Lever, Fritsch, Trac, Pickett and Oliver playing at an AA level and we're half way to a flag.

Richmond pulled off 3 flags with a handful of stars and a bunch of role players. The forward line was Riewoldt and Lynch (19/20 only), Martin, Cotchin and Prestia in the middle, Rance (17 only), Houli, Grimes and Vlaustin down back. The rest of their teams were pretty much Spargo, Sparrow, ANB types no matter how much Tigers nuffies try to convince you that Jack Graham is amazing.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Richmond pulled off 3 flags with a handful of stars and a bunch of role players. The forward line was Riewoldt and Lynch (19/20 only), Martin, Cotchin and Prestia in the middle, Rance (17 only), Houli, Grimes and Vlaustin down back. The rest of their teams were pretty much Spargo, Sparrow, ANB types no matter how much Tigers nuffies try to convince you that Jack Graham is amazing.

Every premiership team has a bunch of role players who lift beyond their previous/normal level and help the superstars do their thing and win games.

They’re not the match winners but at the same time you don’t win a flag with 6 or 7 players doing stuff all. They need to be running hard and tackling and defending at the top level to let the stars do their thing.

That’s why I reckon you have to reward your bottom end players for showing the right level of intensity and move on those who aren’t.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Here’s a rough guide of flag windows in the last 20 odd years:

Essendon 1999-2001

Brisbane Lions 2001-04

Port Adelaide 2002-04

Sydney Swans 2005-06

West Coast Eagles 2005-06

Geelong 2007-11

Collingwood 2010-11

Sydney Swans 2012-16

Hawthorn 2011-16

Richmond 2017-20

West Coast Eagles 2015-20



Great season/pinched a flag:

Hawthorn 2008

Western Bulldogs 2016



No flag but had a chance:

St Kilda 2004-11

Adelaide 2005-06

Western Bulldogs 2008-10

Fremantle 2013-15

Adelaide 2015-17



Too hard/early to tell:

Melbourne 2021

Geelong 2022

Obvious disclaimer is that past performance doesn’t equal future performance but a shot at a flag has generally been anywhere between 2 to 5 years. Taking a look at the sides that have had longer than two years, I reckon the majority would have had more top liners than we do…

 

[stEdy]

Don't think you can use the 2 away from home line when we played Essendon.

Why? The whole post is about form at/away from the MCG.

Yes, we were playing against Essendon and they weren't playing at home either, but we weren't at the G, the place where we will play our home finals if we get them and the grand final if we make it.

Your ability to nitpick the wrong parts of the post to try and make a point is outstanding

 

[Supermercado]

In 2021 we lost to a bunch of shit teams and got hot at the end of the season so I'm not going to boil myself in oil just yet.

 

[thecuzsays]

How many players currently we utilising under 50 games experience. I like what's coming but have we gonna half future half flag attempt

 

[Scythe]

I wouldn't say it's nailed shut, but realistically, I think we're just a third-to-fifth sort of team at present.

As mentioned, there just hasn't been enough linear improvement across the board, which is essential for multiple tilts at a flag.

Additionally, I wouldn't just say Petracca's plateaued – he's noticeably regressed. With him, the issue appears psychological more than anything, so hopefully that can be fixed.

One of the real let-downs has been all the younger guys from the flag year that were supposed to hold us in good stead for years to come. Sparrow, Rivers, Bowey, Jackson (gone), Spargo, Jordon have all either failed to kick on or have regressed. Pickett has improved and that's about it, and we may lose him too.

Another thing, if May or Lever misses a final, that's curtains. Our structure is far too reliant on them, and the others down back go to water when they're not there.

My main gripe is the stubbornness though. As TK said, the best we've looked since the flag was the Sydney game. Our ball movement was quick, decisive and aggressive, and the JVR/Petty forwardline actually competed in the air and at ground level.

Within a week, McDonald was back, Brown will probably be back next week. We also picked another cooked, slow campaigner in Melksham, and our ball movement has regressed back to the KICK IT LoOoOoOnG!!! methodology.

It's not just on the old guys though – Goodwin exhibits far too much loyalty to the 2021 premiership team, to the point where changes are needed, but we still refuse to reward good form with young players (see Laurie having 35 touches last week in the VFL).

The exception is obviously McVee and JVR, who have added a ton of life and energy to the team. Watch JVR go out for Gawn/Brown within a week though, and you can bet McVee will be out for Salem when he's fit.

It's a frustrating position to be in, as it certainly feels like we've stagnated. That being said though, this is shaping up to be a strangely even year, so as long as we're thereabouts later in the season, then we're of course in with a shot.

No excuses for dropping any of the next 4-5 games though.

 

[DemonZombie_001]

I think that is a well reasoned post Scythe94. I would start to worry if this happens, this type of performance, after the bye and over the next few games.

Also, JVR must stay in the squad, not so sure about McDonald.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Nah just need to sack the coach and clear out the blokes coasting off 2021. Probably would require bombing out badly this season and a minor scandal to happen in a timely enough fashion so we don't waste the end of Gawn/May etc.

 

[Toump Ass]

I reckon I had the ‘21 flag penciled in pretty early, the Richmond win was enough for me. Not feeling quite the same way rn tho, lol.

Imma wait a little longer before judging our early results; Collingwood got done at the GABBA and in a few weeks time we might be calling Essendon a really good side. That was the worst we’ve looked for a very long time.

I don’t think we’re quite done yet. I’m looking forward to seeing Gawn and Grundy getting a few games together, Lever getting back, hoping we see a few more debuts soon. I’m keen on Brown forward and Melksham out, TMac, maybe the sub but we can’t carry him if his form is poor (which I hope will be the case- he’s been dropped once already)

Generally I think our selections have been a little better than last year (pickett/rivers in the guts, brayshaw back), maybe a bit of improvement possible here still.

 

[danster168]

It's not shut but it's close to being closed for 2023. We've already shown inconsistency in effort.

 

[Toump Ass]

We've already shown inconsistency in effort.

Yaah this a real concern hey. We played shit in the first qtr against Essendon but had a lead, I wonder if the players just assumed we’d click when we needed too, subconciously even, bit of cruise control.

Fingers crossed its a leadership issue which Lever and Gawn address when they’re back.