Opinion Is our window closing?

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loki04

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The premiership window is a theory, and not even a scientific one.

Our list needs an upgrade or 2 but we have the cattle to win it. The club ought to be reviewing our performances this year and to be prepared to make the tough calls.
Not really a theory just a term for when a team is in the sweet spot for contending.

We all know the AFL is cyclic. What goes up must come down. Outliers happen like when teams try trade in to extend the window or avoid truly bottoming out (Norf for a decade and Hawks recently).
 

jathanas

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Not really a theory just a term for when a team is in the sweet spot for contending.

We all know the AFL is cyclic. What goes up must come down. Outliers happen like when teams try trade in to extend the window or avoid truly bottoming out (Norf for a decade and Hawks recently).
The AFL's equalisation measures are an attempt to create a success cycle and to a large degree it has worked. Interstate clubs get extra support in the push for "equality".

Bottom clubs get support with draft pics to help them up the ladder but no guarantee that they'll be finals good. Factors such as recruiting, player development, coaching influence each club's success. Only a few of the clubs that bottom out will contest for a flag, and some will never really bottom out.

Yeah I accept that a premiership opportunity exists for some clubs at a time and it is fine to call that time period a window.
 
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No SPIN

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I posted this thread in January, and I don't want to come off as a Nostradamus but I think I'm close to the mark with the OP.

Given that the things to avoid (as well as undisciplined off field melodrama) have happened. Personally I think our window has been slammed shut, bolted and welded with armed guards either side.


and yet in other posts you’ve said and agreed with others that the fix could be as simple as shifting to a more positive and offensive game plan - that’s hardly a flag window welded shut.
 

Mooresome

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Contender or pretender like we are currently, and have been since post 2017?
Only need to repair our broken forward line and get any decent midfielder that can kick straight,
not a fan of these 30 disposal midfielders that turn most of their kicks over and can only run one direction.
Also need to keep our small forwards in the forward line Elliott is a brilliant forward for example, even though he is
good rotating through midfield i would leave him in his position.Same with Stevo.
 

anshell

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I’m not sure if our window has closed all together.We’ve got some exciting talent coming through in the next two years.Reef McGuinness( who is being touted as top ten pick in the draft and is just the sort of midfielder we need) is coming next year.Then the following year we’ve got Nick Daicos coming,who is so talented apparently he makes Gary Ablett look like Jarryd Blair.Kelly looked very promising in the only game he played
before he unfortunately got injured.We just need to snag another key forward in the draft or in trading,and a crumbing forward as well.Those are the two greatest areas of weakness on our list.
 

stevebbb

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Make some aggressive moves in the trade period, pray to the footy Gods that our stars stay fit, and we have a genuine chance.
 

stormskye

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Windows not shut, but we have some holes to fill.

sidey and pendles have two years left, Howe maybe same now with knee.

we have an amazing defence when full strength, hopefully next year with howey and Langdon.

our game plan and forward line needs work, big time. Im 100% open to sidey moving forward to prolong his career and improve our mix but he’d be sorely missed midfield atm.... Kelly and degoey fit and playing will help, but def need genuine tall marking forward like lynch/Dixon Which don’t fall out of the sky.

we have some great top end talent, it’s the bottom 6 costing us. Every game there’s 6 or so passengers, and you just can’t have that. Hopefully some kids can come on.

brown bothers, Murphy, atu? Is there anything there, not sure.
 
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loki04

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Give me a fully fit JDG, Howe, Grundy ( I think he’s carrying an injury), Pendles, Langdon in form Cox, and an offensive 2018 game plan - and I’ll give you a window that’s wide open.
Who are you going to get to implement the "gameplan" clearly Buckley has altered and moved away from it or if he hasn't the opposition have worked out how to curtail it. Which is imo part of the case if you look at how we scored through the 2018 finals (Bar Richmond win) and line that up with the following 2 seasons.

We have changed things but also think we have been found out a bit. I agree I don't think it has truly closed but imo its closing in next 18 months or so, and like you I feel we need to add a more attacking brand in with our defense. Atm the ledger is too far aimed at defensive mechanisms.
 

No SPIN

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Who are you going to get to implement thegameplan clearly Buckley has altered and moved away from it or if he hasn't the opposition have worked out how to curtail it. Which is imo part of the case if you look at how we scored through the 2018 finals (Bar Richmond win) and line that up with the following 2 seasons.

We have changed things but also think we have been found out a bit. I agree I don't think it has truly closed but imo its closing in next 18 months or so and like you feel we need to add more attacking brand in with our defense atm the ledger is too far aimed at defensive mechanisms.
Are you saying that even with our best team we are incapable of a winning game plan?
 

loki04

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Are you saying that even with our best team we are incapable of a winning game plan?
I'm saying even with our best team in our CURRENT game plan is not a reliable "winning" game plan. It leaves the opposition in the game which opens you up for losses.

Also I said more then that in the post. Like I don't think the much wedded Buckley will move away from how we have gone about it.
 

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No SPIN

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I'm saying even with our best team in our CURRENT game plan is not a reliable "winning" game plan. It leaves the opposition in the game which opens you up for losses.

Also I said more then that in the post. Like I don't think the much wedded Buckley will move away from how we have gone about it.
Agree current game plan is an issue.
Based on today’s presser he too is concerned we are not playing “ our brand”.
 

stormskye

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I'm saying even with our best team in our CURRENT game plan is not a reliable "winning" game plan. It leaves the opposition in the game which opens you up for losses.

Also I said more then that in the post. Like I don't think the much wedded Buckley will move away from how we have gone about it.
I agree. We don’t play an attacking brand, we go into our shells when in front , even more so this year. Good teams take the game on by foot, if you kick long to contests, worst case it’s turnover over 50m down field which gives time to setup and cover. We overuse by hand, move slow, which when turned over by hand, doesn’t give us anytime to setup and cover the quick turnover goals...

Our round 1 win against dogs was an example of our winning brand, fast movement, more kicks, since then we’ve gone backwards.

ain’t gonna deny hub life isn’t helping, we’ve travelled a lot, but most other teams dealing with same issues
 
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No SPIN

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I agree. We don’t play an attacking brand, we go into our shells when in front , even more so this year. Good teams take the game on by foot, if you kick long to contests, worst case it’s turnover over 50m down field which gives time to setup and cover. We overuse by hand, move slow, which when turned over by hand, doesn’t give us anytime to setup and cover the quick turnover goals...
Rich against the WB showed they can now play the slow game - which was a revelation.
So you need the flexibility to play fast and slow.
But I agree we need more fast than slow right now.
 

loki04

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Agree current game plan is an issue.
Based on today’s presser he too is concerned we are not playing “ our brand”.
Did he also say we were "nutted at the contest" or "we didn't get the defensive areas right" or other defensive or work ethic related comment?

Only a week ago he refused to acknowledge there is a clear pattern in our scoring and way we play. Yet he trained and set up this team into playing this exact way.

I remember when he was a commentator he talked much more about the attacking side of the game and that pressure game plans were unsustainable. He comes in gets burnt playing attacking then does a complete about face in footy philosophy to the point of over tuning it.
Now early days we leaked easy goals largely due to this high press he wants to implement where we were vulnerable out the back for easy over the top goals, now its the opposite our fwds press up too far into defense and when we turn it over have nothing and nowhere to go making scoring a nightmare.
 

peter9789

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We won't win a flag with out an effective KPF. Our midget forward line of 2018 worked a treat back then, but through form, injury, and other clubs adapting to counter these tactics we have been left badly exposed.

We don't have anyone on our list who can play that role (Some will point to Moore but I want him at CHB for the next 10 years - think he will be elite in that role), which underlines that our list strategy missed a critical part of the puzzle. For me there is no one who looks 'gettable' that I see as being the focal point for the next 7-8 years.

I think we have some talent on our list that will see us remain competitive, but that's not what we want. If I had a wish list I would put Ben King at the very top, but doubt we would be able to get him to come to us.
 

stormskye

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Rich against the WB showed they can now play the slow game - which was a revelation.
So you need the flexibility to play fast and slow.
But I agree we need more fast than slow right now.
Doggies are very similar to us atm, overuse the ball by hand, plenty of inside 50’s but a dysfunctional forward line without key marking targets. Mirror image of us really.
 

loki04

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We won't win a flag with out an effective KPF. Our midget forward line of 2018 worked a treat back then, but through form, injury, and other clubs adapting to counter these tactics we have been left badly exposed.

We don't have anyone on our list who can play that role (Some will point to Moore but I want him at CHB for the next 10 years - think he will be elite in that role), which underlines that our list strategy missed a critical part of the puzzle. For me there is no one who looks 'gettable' that I see as being the focal point for the next 7-8 years.

I think we have some talent on our list that will see us remain competitive, but that's not what we want. If I had a wish list I would put Ben King at the very top, but doubt we would be able to get him to come to us.
we effectively had a pagans paddock in 2018, we still set up for it but opposition now leave a defensive line behind the play and don't follow the forwards to deep up the ground.
This makes it hard for our fwds to try burn them back to goal, basically they concede the kick from the def 50m arc to the half way mark and look to turn it back over from there protecting their back 50 and goals. Combined with how deep into def half our fwds are going it slows our transition and there is no space for smalls and medium marking forwards to get the space to be effective.
 

loki04

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We won't win a flag with out an effective KPF. Our midget forward line of 2018 worked a treat back then, but through form, injury, and other clubs adapting to counter these tactics we have been left badly exposed.

We don't have anyone on our list who can play that role (Some will point to Moore but I want him at CHB for the next 10 years - think he will be elite in that role), which underlines that our list strategy missed a critical part of the puzzle. For me there is no one who looks 'gettable' that I see as being the focal point for the next 7-8 years.

I think we have some talent on our list that will see us remain competitive, but that's not what we want. If I had a wish list I would put Ben King at the very top, but doubt we would be able to get him to come to us.
Moore will also be elite fwd.

He is already an elite defender, but imo you can cover that area better then missing an elite level fwd.
 

DaVe86

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One week I think yes, one week I think no.

What i do know is that we have around 8 A grade players, which is more than the majority of teams. Even though Sidebottom and Pendles are old, they are still playing A Grade footy:

Grundy
De Goey
Adams
Pendlebury
Sidebottom
Howe
Moore
Crisp

They are all A graders.

I also reckon Treloar at his best is an A grader due to the sheer volume of footy he gets, and Maynard is bloody close to it at the moment.

If you get Stephenson, Elliott and Mihocek playing their best footy, then you have the core of a very good side.

We also have some good kids coming through. I'm really liking the look of Quaynor, Kelly, Rantall, Daicos and Tyler Brown.

What we need is to polish off the edges. A good ball user with some pace on the wing, a good key forward, a crumber, an inside mid.

One good trade period can be all the difference. So i say go hard.

Anyone who is not named so far should be on the table.

Any combination of WHE, Phillips and Sier could be traded in for picks to go to Melbourne for Tom McDonald, or direct trade considering they are looking for some outsiders to compliment their wealth of inside talent.

Throw some coin at Ben Brown and Ollie Wines.

Look at how the Saints did it. They sacrificed players like Acres and Bruce, but brought in what they needed. 5 gun players and they are all of a sudden top 4.

If we dump some salary, we can do it too.
 

No SPIN

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we effectively had a pagans paddock in 2018, we still set up for it but opposition now leave a defensive line behind the play and don't follow the forwards to deep up the ground.
This makes it hard for our fwds to try burn them back to goal, basically they concede the kick from the def 50m arc to the half way mark and look to turn it back over from there protecting their back 50 and goals. Combined with how deep into def half our fwds are going it slows our transition and there is no space for smalls and medium marking forwards to get the space to be effective.
Geelong have been playing this strategy of lagging or stay at home defenders for a number of years and we’ve managed well against them. So why is this now a problem?
 

BringouttheGimp

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We need to win 7 out of our last 8 to make top 4.

Realistically we're only a chance for an elimination final. And to expect a predictable Buckley to win 4 out of 4 in finals to win a premiership.. well this yr is over.

Looking ahead to 2021.. with Buckley at the helm.. with 8 out of 9 below par seasons.. we're more of a risk of missing out.. than not.
 

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