Is that the final 8 set?

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AdamE89

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[QUOTE

People are reading too much into our win yesterday, you can't win every game convincingly. We have shown so far we can step up to the top teams when needed. We might be a relatively low chance of winning the premiership but to mis the finals when we are 3 games clear and 53% of 9th place and 4 games and 47% ahead of 10th. We won't miss the finals[/QUOTE]

Just ask the great Sir Alex about grinding out a 1-0 win over the Derby County’s, Bolton etc at old Trafford in the 96th minute in their prime and then smashing the big boys away the next week.




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AdamE89

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[QUOTE="People are reading too much into our win yesterday, you can't win every game convincingly. We have shown so far we can step up to the top teams when needed. We might be a relatively low chance of winning the premiership but to mis the finals when we are 3 games clear and 53% of 9th place and 4 games and 47% ahead of 10th. We won't miss the finals[/QUOTE]

Just ask the great Sir Alex about grinding out a 1-0 win over the Derby County’s, Bolton etc at old Trafford in the 96th minute in their prime and then smashing the big boys away the next week.




On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app[/QUOTE]




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Bloods Rule!

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Interesting that everyone is writing off the Swans. They are 5:2 and have played three other teams in the 8 and have beaten each of them: Tigers, Cats and Lions. There are 14 more games to go and the Swans play just four teams that are currently in the 8. The other 10 games are Pies, Freo, Blues, Saints, Hawks, Giants, Freo, Bombers, Saints and North. That's not a super hard run home.
 

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old55

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Interesting that everyone is writing off the Swans. They are 5:2 and have played three other teams in the 8 and have beaten each of them: Tigers, Cats and Lions. There are 14 more games to go and the Swans play just four teams that are currently in the 8. The other 10 games are Pies, Freo, Blues, Saints, Hawks, Giants, Freo, Bombers, Saints and North. That's not a super hard run home.
Swans probably beat Melbourne this week who are due for a loss and have a shocking record vs Sydney especially at the MCG. Buddy and Rampe back. Swans $4.20 at Sportsbet - get on!
 

mpal6

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Interesting that everyone is writing off the Swans. They are 5:2 and have played three other teams in the 8 and have beaten each of them: Tigers, Cats and Lions. There are 14 more games to go and the Swans play just four teams that are currently in the 8. The other 10 games are Pies, Freo, Blues, Saints, Hawks, Giants, Freo, Bombers, Saints and North. That's not a super hard run home.
Teams are analyzing what you're doing and blocking the corridor even more now. I think it'll get harder as the season goes on.

If the Lions play you now we'll have a different setup compared to that round 1 ambush.
 

Freomaniac

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Yeah it's a joke, we copped the toughest fixture when we finished 6th and played finals for the first time in about 10 years while clubs like Richmond, West Coast, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Port and Geelong who have finished higher on the ladder than us in recent years, won premierships and played more finals than us get easier fixtures. It will probably be the difference between us making finals and missing out in what will be a fairly even year.
what did you expect after making final for the 1st time in 10 years? An easy draw like the crows were handed in 2012 where they had the suns, gws and a horrible Port side twice?
 

Joao

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Interesting that everyone is writing off the Swans. They are 5:2 and have played three other teams in the 8 and have beaten each of them: Tigers, Cats and Lions. There are 14 more games to go and the Swans play just four teams that are currently in the 8. The other 10 games are Pies, Freo, Blues, Saints, Hawks, Giants, Freo, Bombers, Saints and North. That's not a super hard run home.
I think it is a little bit getting found out but also a little bit that you were getting a lot from your kids in the first 4 rounds and you are now getting much less from them.

I reckon you win 5-7 games from here.
 

SBD Gonzalez

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Kidding, right?
Well September is a long way off yet but if the Swans make the eight as I suspect they will I look forward to revisiting this thread.
 

the hypnotoad

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I think it is a little bit getting found out but also a little bit that you were getting a lot from your kids in the first 4 rounds and you are now getting much less from them.

I reckon you win 5-7 games from here.
so, no chance the young sydney players actually improve the more they play?
 

Vaccination

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This is a pretty long and thorough explanation of where I think everything is at so far

Teams which can't drop out: Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Richmond
Melbourne and Western Bulldogs look great to start the year, both have stacked midfields with quality rucks (English not playing really hurt Bulldogs against Richmond imo).
Richmond are like 2011-2016 hawks, until I see them dead I'm not counting them out.

Teams which will get in because of their home grounds: Port, Brisbane, Geelong, West Coast
Maybe being a tad harsh to Port and Brisbane, the latter especially given they've played some good stuff the last couple of weeks. Port looked pedestrian on the road against two contenders, but have proved they'll be hard to beat in Adelaide.
Geelong at GMHBA are awesome, and finishing off with three games there to end the year should help with a late push. Not fully convinced by them but they've got forwards who can score, a good enough midfield and Tom Stewart.
West Coast could easily go into the tier below, especially with their injury woes. However they are pretty reliable at home and have an easy enough schedule whilst their best players are out. If they played the teams they play after their bye now we probably wouldn't make the 8.

Team which could slide: Sydney
The only reason why Sydney are here is because of lack of experience. While some of their youth may tire as the season goes on or their tactics are found out, they are saved by having one of the easiest schedules in the comp. They don't need to play Brisbane, Richmond or Geelong again and after playing Melbourne this week and excluding a 3 week period in rounds 15-17 (Even that include West Coast at the SCG which is an automatic win for Sydney) all their opponents are outside the 8. They can afford a couple of slip ups, but they do need to be cautious. The two games they play against the Saints will be crucial.

Outside looking in: GWS, St Kilda, Carlton
GWS have really picked it up the past month and based on talent alone should easily be in the 8. I just don't see a slot for them at the moment. Their win over Sydney was crucial as it pulled one of their competitors back as well as showing fight which had been missing in the first three games of the year. The issue for GWS is that I feel they are very much a confidence and momentum based team, and after the Essendon game they have Richmond, West Coast and Brisbane. Lose all 3 and their season is pretty much done.
St Kilda are too inconsistent at the moment and aren't helped by a stupidly tough draw. If they can play more games like they played the second half against the Eagles or the Hawks game it'll bring them back.
Carlton need to start beating good sides.

Year too early/maybe if they get on a run: Gold Coast, Freo
Gold Coast are a hungry young side capable of competing and getting good wins (See the Sydney game). I just don't think they have the experience or the stamina to get through the season. Should try to finish 13th, get an easier draw then push for the 8 next year.
Freo need to beat better teams at home of they are to stand a chance. Give time for the young midfielders to develop, get the defense back and organised. Concerned about lack of scoring or forward threats.

Rebuilding: Essendon, Adelaide, Hawks
You aren't looking for results, just development out of the kids. Try claiming a few scalps throughout the year and give your fans hope

Limbo: Collingwood
A team which looks like its come to the end of its window a bit earlier than it should. I think they'll rebound but it doesn't look good so far. Try and stabilise the ship, create a clear plan at the end of the year by deciding if you can win a flag with the group you have. If the answer is no, then start a fire sale

Bottom: North
Just be lucky the AFL doesn't have a draft lottery

TL;DR
8 is pretty much settled if Sydney can keep up their form and GWS or St Kilda don't get on a roll
 
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mattpolo8

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Teams are analyzing what you're doing and blocking the corridor even more now. I think it'll get harder as the season goes on.

If the Lions play you now we'll have a different setup compared to that round 1 ambush.
Except...you don't play us again and didn't take your shot when you did. So...what's the point of hind sight?
 

ep2018

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Swans probably beat Melbourne this week who are due for a loss and have a shocking record vs Sydney especially at the MCG. Buddy and Rampe back. Swans $4.20 at Sportsbet - get on!
As a general rule with betting, never bet against the undefeated top team. Let their first loss come when it comes. Don't try to predict it.
 

ep2018

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Sydney and West Coast are the two teams that might fall out of the top 8 from here. But I back both teams to make finals.
 

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mpal6

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Except...you don't play us again and didn't take your shot when you did. So...what's the point of hind sight?
The point is why you might drop out of 8 and the run could become difficult for you in the second half. Opposition are putting more time into you and it'll be interesting to see how your young team responds.
 

NetworkNerd

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Yeah it's a joke, we copped the toughest fixture when we finished 6th and played finals for the first time in about 10 years while clubs like Richmond, West Coast, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Port and Geelong who have finished higher on the ladder than us in recent years, won premierships and played more finals than us get easier fixtures. It will probably be the difference between us making finals and missing out in what will be a fairly even year.
A fair draw is the top 6 play each other twice (10 games) then the rest once (12 games). Same with the middle 6 and bottom 6 from the year before. But allowing for showdowns/derbies/rivalries etc we can make that play 4 of the other 5 in your group plus a 'rivalry' game.

In this case, all of the top 6 from 2020 should be having harder draws. Sydney with double ups against 4 of Hawthorn/Adelaide/North/Suns/Essendon would be locks for a top 6 if not top 4
 

Grand Uncle Horace

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To be honest I am still amazed how well my mob has played and that we are even in Final 8 discussions. Like every other team the Bloods will get their share of injuries and setbacks. We possess reasonable depth and this will be tested in the months ahead.

Aside from Hickey, our best players v Geelong were from the young brigade. Personally I see this as a development and transition year. That we are a chance of making the 8 is a bonus.
 

Handsuper47

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A fair draw is the top 6 play each other twice (10 games) then the rest once (12 games). Same with the middle 6 and bottom 6 from the year before. But allowing for showdowns/derbies/rivalries etc we can make that play 4 of the other 5 in your group plus a 'rivalry' game.

In this case, all of the top 6 from 2020 should be having harder draws. Sydney with double ups against 4 of Hawthorn/Adelaide/North/Suns/Essendon would be locks for a top 6 if not top 4
Outside of Hawthorn, everyone else we have double up games against finished in the top 6 last year. While it's true our fixture gets easier after the bye it's not our fault teams like the Giants and St Kilda have fallen off - you're always going to get teams that you think will do good the next year that end up going backwards.
 

SBD Gonzalez

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Kidding, right?
As a general rule with betting, never bet against the undefeated top team. Let their first loss come when it comes. Don't try to predict it.
I'll preface this by saying I think betting is for mugs, but I agree with the sentiment.

"Due for a loss" is a meaningless phrase which has appeared on this thread several times as if it actually means something.
 
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boncer34

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Usually the 8 is set about this time each season. May get one change but that's about it
From end of round 7 to end of season
2020
Bulldogs in
Suns out

2019
Port, Adelaide, Freo, Saints out
Tigers, West Coast, Dogs and Bombers in

2018
North and Adelaide out
Pies and GWS in

2017
Dogs and Saints out
Swans and Bombers in

2016
No change

2015
GWS and Pies out
Richmond and North in

2014
Pies and Suns out
Dons and Richmond in

2013
No change (Bombers out Blues in but due to drugs)

2012
Saints, Blues, Bombers out
Hawks, Geelong, North in

2011
Freo, Dees out
Dons, Eagles in

2010
Power out
Hawks in

History suggests its likely we'll see a couple of changes yet.
 

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