Is the Aus economy slowly imploding?

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hamohawk1

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Feb 18, 2011
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Came out of the pandemic in an OK state due in part to short lockdowns for most states and the unusually 'generous' government payments. Now with the two most populated states in an extended lockdown, the hospitality/ tourism and retail (outside of the big boys) is basically on its knees, with full time employment basically flat.

Take housing out of the equation and nothing has filled me with confidence that the economy is 'roaring' back.

Even pre pandemic, wages were flat, cost of living was going through the roof and we were basically flooding the economy with immigration and new housing to prop us up.

Anyone else feeling that we're finally heading for the recession and economic pain in the next 6-12 months that we were probably due to have pre-covid. Not even sure another surge in demand from China for Iron ore will save our bacon this time.

Anyone else share this sentiment?
 
Australia was already in a per-capita recession pre bushfires, underemployment is through the roof, Most of our workers are casual and cannot afford to own property. Our 3 biggest industires are Mining (which has a 2050 limit via the free market), Tourism (which is impacted by mining and climate change) and Education (Degree farms)

This nation has been ****ed for a while, its just now its no longer people born post 1990 are suffering.
 

AlwaysHawks15

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Australia was already in a per-capita recession pre bushfires, underemployment is through the roof, Most of our workers are casual and cannot afford to own property. Our 3 biggest industires are Mining (which has a 2050 limit via the free market), Tourism (which is impacted by mining and climate change) and Education (Degree farms)

This nation has been f’ed for a while, its just now its no longer people born post 1990 are suffering.
The problem is the Libs are feeding the masses with misinformation to disguise what's actually going on. No one bothers to do their research so alot of what gets said is unchecked and unscrutinised and swept under the carpet. The Libs know their audience are a bunch of uneducated morons and they pander to that by telling them what they want to hear. Been happening since I can remember.
 

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The problem is the Libs are feeding the masses with misinformation to disguise what's actually going on. No one bothers to do their research so alot of what gets said is unchecked and unscrutinised and swept under the carpet. The Libs know their audience are a bunch of uneducated morons and they pander to that by telling them what they want to hear. Been happening since I can remember.
The media and libs + nats are part of a racket.

ABC is stacked with ex news corp hacks, 7 is mining magnate owned, 9 and fairfax is Peter Costello run add in News Corp.

Not to mention the complete insult that is the lack of funding started by Howard in our public education system.
 
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I wouldn't say imploding - it's been happening gradually for a while and still is. Covid stimulus is a temporary shot in the arm. There are a lot of structural issues that have become apparent and we haven't had anyone since Keating who's had the capability and willingness to tackle serious reform.

An NBN fit for the 21st century would have been a good launch pad for diversified economic growth, but that's been vandalised. Aside from that we've got:

- Housing becoming an entrenched form of wealth inequality, and an anchor around the consumer spending of anyone either saving for a deposit or paying off a mortgage.
- Declining education standards, particularly at universities, which is following through to lack of research/development and a brain drain.
- Decarbonising and the cost of mitigating serious climate change. Combined with the sensitivity of our resource-focused economy (and a government/large part of the electorate with their fingers in their ears.) Coal and gas will be the obvious first casualties, but I'm curious if demand for iron ore tapers off with the likely push of governments towards circular economies.
 

hamohawk1

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The media and libs + nats are part of a racket.

ABC is stacked with ex news corp hacks, 7 is mining magnate owned, 9 and fairfax is Peter Costello run add in News Corp.

Not to mention the complete insult that is the lack of funding started by Howard in our public education system.

What happens when we inevitably see a recession in 1, 2, 5 , 10+ years. Does the general public question wtf is going on or we just keep meddling along?
 
Record low interest rates aren't generally a sign of an economy doing well, or one that they aren't trying to stimulate heavily. That's true across the whole world and has been the case since about 2009.

We've been spluttering along globally for a while. Australia has been fortunate to be tied to a slowing but massive economy that was hungry for what we were selling.
 
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Before the pandemic, there were signs the economy was heading for disaster.

Wages were stuck in a rut. The Reserve Bank was issuing warning after warning on that alone.
Employment is primarily part-time/casual. Sure as hell hasn't been full-time.
Housing has basically become unattainable unless you are either loaded or have maximum credit.
Debt is out of control, both non-Government and Government.
 
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Came out of the pandemic in an OK state due in part to short lockdowns for most states and the unusually 'generous' government payments. Now with the two most populated states in an extended lockdown, the hospitality/ tourism and retail (outside of the big boys) is basically on its knees, with full time employment basically flat.

Take housing out of the equation and nothing has filled me with confidence that the economy is 'roaring' back.

Even pre pandemic, wages were flat, cost of living was going through the roof and we were basically flooding the economy with immigration and new housing to prop us up.

Anyone else feeling that we're finally heading for the recession and economic pain in the next 6-12 months that we were probably due to have pre-covid. Not even sure another surge in demand from China for Iron ore will save our bacon this time.

Anyone else share this sentiment?

Between Covid stimulus, superannuation withdrawals, QE and other stimulus last year Australia has thrown somewhere in the vicinity of $400-500 billion of cash into the economy.

And not one bit of that cash has been targeted. In the great Australian tradition most of it has been swallowed up in assets bubbles with very little invested for the future.

$400-500 billion is over 25% of Australia's GDP. That is outright insane. 25% of Australia's GDP thrown into the ring as cash :eek:

I don't think anyone truely knows how this unfolds yet but it is hard to believe it ends well.

But then again the feds are still printing $4b a week. That is $200b a year or about 10-11% of GDP. This cannot go on forever (although seemingly in the USA it can so :think:).

The fact it is so poorly targeted means once again Australia has missed a huge opportunity.

How long can the lucky country hold out?
 
Before the pandemic, there were signs the economy was heading for disaster.

Wages were stuck in a rut. The Reserve Bank was issuing warning after warning on that alone.
Employment is primarily part-time/casual. Sure as hell hasn't been full-time.
Housing has basically become unattainable unless you are either loaded or have maximum credit.
Debt is out of control, both non-Government and Government.

We are positioned quite vulnerably, as in regular people the world over, for just the reason you said. Wages definitely don't have a motivation to go up from the people paying the bill, inflation and cost of living will rise with more government competition for spending injected into the market and the percentage of full time workers is down a lot.

We saw what happened with an artificial downturn in demand and supply with governments closing down the world - they felt an obligation to keep their people afloat because of it - but whether a collapse could be similarly paid out to keep people in their jobs if it were an organic thing - I'm not so sure.

Social expectations are set, if governments can spend their way out of problems they will.
 
Record low interest rates aren't generally a sign of an economy doing well, or one that they aren't trying to stimulate heavily. That's true across the whole world and has been the case since about 2009.

We've been spluttering along globally for a while. Australia has been fortunate to be tied to a slowing but massive economy that was hungry for what we were selling.

Growth makes the world go 'round.
 

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Growth makes the world go 'round.
If we want to take a deeper dive into it then our existing immigration program of scraping the cream off the top of other nations, letting their educated and higher contributing people move here to the detriment of their original home nation.

That hurts the rest of the world far more than it benefits us.
 
Between Covid stimulus, superannuation withdrawals, QE and other stimulus last year Australia has thrown somewhere in the vicinity of $400-500 billion of cash into the economy.

And not one bit of that cash has been targeted. In the great Australian tradition most of it has been swallowed up in assets bubbles with very little invested for the future.

$400-500 billion is over 25% of Australia's GDP. That is outright insane. 25% of Australia's GDP thrown into the ring as cash :eek:

I don't think anyone truely knows how this unfolds yet but it is hard to believe it ends well.

But then again the feds are still printing $4b a week. That is $200b a year or about 10-11% of GDP. This cannot go on forever (although seemingly in the USA it can so :think:).

The fact it is so poorly targeted means once again Australia has missed a huge opportunity.

How long can the lucky country hold out?

It can, and will, go on forever....as long as everyone else is doing it....everyone else will continue doing it because if they stop now there will be a depression that will last decades.

Imagine you were given an endless supply of $$$$ to use at the casino, 3 trillion in debt meh, I'll have 2 trillion on black on the roulette wheel. If it comes up red I will just double my bet because bogan probability dictates it will come up black next time.
 
If we want to take a deeper dive into it then our existing immigration program of scraping the cream off the top of other nations, letting their educated and higher contributing people move here to the detriment of their original home nation.

That hurts the rest of the world far more than it benefits us.


The cream of their crop isn't coming here to clean toilets, drive buses or work in the gig economy.

We're not importing the cream of their crop, we are exporting the cream of our crop.
 
The cream of their crop isn't coming here to clean toilets, drive buses or work in the gig economy.

We're not importing the cream of their crop, we are exporting the cream of our crop.
I think the stats on our brain drain are heavily influenced by people who gained residency here after completing their university study here and then moved back home, until the pandemic when they decided to move home to Australia again.

But I do agree that we don't foster elite talent here because quite a lot more money is there to be made in the USA.
 
I think the stats on our brain drain are heavily influenced by people who gained residency here after completing their university study here and then moved back home, until the pandemic when they decided to move home to Australia again.

But I do agree that we don't foster elite talent here because quite a lot more money is there to be made in the USA.

It's not just about money, it is also about having a job.
Lots of science nerds leave because there simply isn't any work for them.
Closing down industry like car manufacturing doesn't help.
 
It's not just about money, it is also about having a job.
Lots of science nerds leave because there simply isn't any work for them.
Closing down industry like car manufacturing doesn't help.
You're right. Not just science though. There has been such a push by parents/society/peers etc to get a degree that we have so many lawyers and our engineers are project managers.

Meanwhile desperate for tradies.

Might be a cultural issue behind a bit of this.
 
You're right. Not just science though. There has been such a push by parents/society/peers etc to get a degree that we have so many lawyers and our engineers are project managers.

Meanwhile desperate for tradies.

Might be a cultural issue behind a bit of this.

We don't actually have a lot of lawyers.
We have lots that get law degrees.
Something like 26% of law graduates practice law.
 
We don't actually have a lot of lawyers.
We have lots that get law degrees.
Something like 26% of law graduates practice law.
That's exactly my point. We have similar rates of people who have engineering degrees essentially using them as qualifications to operate management spreadsheets.

We are overtraining people for jobs that don't exist because we have a pressure to get a degree and like it or not, tradies come with a stigma.
 
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It can, and will, go on forever....as long as everyone else is doing it....everyone else will continue doing it because if they stop now there will be a depression that will last decades.

Imagine you were given an endless supply of $$$$ to use at the casino, 3 trillion in debt meh, I'll have 2 trillion on black on the roulette wheel. If it comes up red I will just double my bet because bogan probability dictates it will come up black next time.
Interestingly, if you actually did have an infinite amount of money, a Martingale strategy would work :think:
 
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If we want to take a deeper dive into it then our existing immigration program of scraping the cream off the top of other nations, letting their educated and higher contributing people move here to the detriment of their original home nation.

That hurts the rest of the world far more than it benefits us.
s**t for our kids when they 457 trades in and forever give companies no incentive to put apprentices on.
 

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