Is the MCG a big advantage on Grand Final Day for Victorians against Interstate Sides? /Are Interstaters advantaged during the home and away season?

Is the MCG a significant advantage for Victorian sides against Interstate Teams on Grand Final Day?

  • Yes, It's a big advantage for the Vic Big Boys

    Votes: 191 67.3%
  • No. If you're good enough you'll win no matter who you play where you play

    Votes: 93 32.7%

  • Total voters
    284

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Rich01

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3 or 4 means we travel guaranteed in week one bar the tiny statistical anomaly of a derby.

thats two weeks of travel minimum - seeing as travellers win 20% of away finals.....

3 or 4 for a vic team means statistically the are more likely to not travel.
You would think that by the weight of numbers of the Vic clubs.

But the last ten years (including this one) has shown that two years Vic teams finished in the top two positions, two years non Vic teams finished in the top two positions and six years one Vic and one non Vic team finished in the top two positions.

Says something about the FIXture that non Vic clubs have punched above their weight to finish top two so often.

This year is a great example of the power of home ground advantage with the top two sides, while deserving, also having a significant advantage playing on their own deck to ensure a top seeding for finals.
 

PowerForGood

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You would think that by the weight of numbers of the Vic clubs.

But the last ten years (including this one) has shown that two years Vic teams finished in the top two positions, two years non Vic teams finished in the top two positions and six years one Vic and one non Vic team finished in the top two positions.

Says something about the FIXture that non Vic clubs have punched above their weight to finish top two so often.

This year is a great example of the power of home ground advantage with the top two sides, while deserving, also having a significant advantage playing on their own deck to ensure a top seeding for finals.
13 of the 16 best home and away seasons in AFL era have been Vic Clubs, incl the best 5 (Geelong 2008, Essendon 2000, Collingwood 2011, St Kilda 2009, Carlton 1995).

Interestingly those 3 non Vic Clubs (WC 91 PA 02, PA 03) then failed to win the flag through their own faults.
 

kranky al

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You forget the fact that with 4 tenants and clubs like Essendon and Carlton playing at the G regularly the MCG tenants don't get 11 clear home games like other clubs they are also required to play at least one home game away, so while it is an advantage in finals it can be a disadvantage in the home and away season.
only if you believe that its harder for victorian teams to travel interstate and win than it is for interstate teams to fly to another state and win.

because we play as many games interstate with a disadvantage as we do at home with an advantage
 

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kranky al

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You would think that by the weight of numbers of the Vic clubs.

But the last ten years (including this one) has shown that two years Vic teams finished in the top two positions, two years non Vic teams finished in the top two positions and six years one Vic and one non Vic team finished in the top two positions.

Says something about the FIXture that non Vic clubs have punched above their weight to finish top two so often.

This year is a great example of the power of home ground advantage with the top two sides, while deserving, also having a significant advantage playing on their own deck to ensure a top seeding for finals.
took a virus to do that.

normally port and brizzy would only play ten games at home with advantage
 

LoungeLizard

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13 of the 16 best home and away seasons in AFL era have been Vic Clubs, incl the best 5 (Geelong 2008, Essendon 2000, Collingwood 2011, St Kilda 2009, Carlton 1995).

Interestingly those 3 non Vic Clubs (WC 91 PA 02, PA 03) then failed to win the flag through their own faults.
Interesting that 3 of those top 5 also failed to win the GF.
 

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Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
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the huge massive incomparable difference is that you will only meet us in a final at optus when we finish higher than you.

where as in another season you could come ninth, essendon could cheat again.

you could be elevated to 8th - win your way to a gf - then play us at the mcg in a gf

your home ground.

we could have won every game all year and 9th still gets the hga come gf day.

or 8th

or 7th

or 6th

or 5th

or 4th

or 3rd

or 2nd
I totally agree that the GF arrangement is unfair to non-MCG tenants. That isn't what we were discussing, though, which was home advantage during the H&A season.
 

PowerForGood

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I totally agree that the GF arrangement is unfair to non-MCG tenants. That isn't what we were discussing, though, which was home advantage during the H&A season.
You don't believe that the centralised aspect of Melb teams in the comp means that the best Melb teams will finish higher on the ladder than they should because they don't have the level of interstate travel to offset their advantage. And vice versa, the worst Melb teams will finish relatively lower than they should for the opposite reasons.
 

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Mr Squiggle
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I would be very happy to look at any studies that suggest that travel, not crowds, are the major source of home advantage.

Yes, there is evidence that home ground advantage doesn't completely disappear when you remove crowds. It is not 100% about crowds. But it isn't mostly, or even largely, about travel.

And I think you mean three percentage points, not three percent. Which is a big difference.
Speaking of which! I can't read it because paywall, but judging from the headline, even The West Australian seems to be coming around...

West Coast’s Optus Stadium free-kick favour is real and how fan-less footy impacted the AFL
 

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Mr Squiggle
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You don't believe that the centralised aspect of Melb teams in the comp means that the best Melb teams will finish higher on the ladder than they should because they don't have the level of interstate travel to offset their advantage. And vice versa, the worst Melb teams will finish relatively lower than they should for the opposite reasons.
??? I do believe that. The fixture has an equalizing effect on non-Vic sides where it pushes them towards the middle of the ladder.

Not a big effect, obviously, since non-Vic sides very often finish both first & last, but it's there.
 

bh90210fan

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Speaking of which! I can't read it because paywall, but judging from the headline, even The West Australian seems to be coming around...

West Coast’s Optus Stadium free-kick favour is real and how fan-less footy impacted the AFL
I wonder how our crowds are able to influence umpires consistently yet no other teams supporters seem to be able to?

edit - seems our crowds have some catching up to do. We’ve lost an overall free kick count in 8 seasons, Collingwood has only lost it 6 times over the same period.

LIFT WC FANS

 
Last edited:

LoungeLizard

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You don't believe that the centralised aspect of Melb teams in the comp means that the best Melb teams will finish higher on the ladder than they should because they don't have the level of interstate travel to offset their advantage. And vice versa, the worst Melb teams will finish relatively lower than they should for the opposite reasons.
What i've seen is, most Vic club supporters believe there is an advantage having the GF in Vic, but the data to date shows it isn't that great.

Also the data to date shows that any non-Vic team that finishes top 2 have an advantage, also not that great.

But not many non-Vics will agree they have any advantage, most think it's all disadvantage their way.
 

greatwhiteshark

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What i've seen is, most Vic club supporters believe there is an advantage having the GF in Vic, but the data to date shows it isn't that great.

Also the data to date shows that any non-Vic team that finishes top 2 have an advantage, also not that great.

But not many non-Vics will agree they have any advantage, most think it's all disadvantage their way.
I think we have much more home ground advantage throughout the year. No question about it. And that may put us in a position to finish higher than maybe we should on occasions.
That advantage we have can help us get into a GF for sure. But his the rub of it all, none of those home and away games or early finals you get to win the premiership by winning them. The only game you get to win the premiership in is that last one at the MCG so no matter how or why what advantages occur only on that day are really all that matters.
I have no doubt at all there is an advantage fir a Vic club against a non Vic club on GF day, how big it is or what it is is opinionated in its size.
 

Carringbush2010

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the fact that victorian teams can go entire finals series without leaving melbourne where interstate teams can never do that means statistically we will always fly more than you, even in H&A because of geography. So I guess I can accept it or keep whinging about it!!
EFA
 

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LoungeLizard

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I think we have much more home ground advantage throughout the year. No question about it. And that may put us in a position to finish higher than maybe we should on occasions.
That advantage we have can help us get into a GF for sure. But his the rub of it all, none of those home and away games or early finals you get to win the premiership by winning them. The only game you get to win the premiership in is that last one at the MCG so no matter how or why what advantages occur only on that day are really all that matters.
I have no doubt at all there is an advantage fir a Vic club against a non Vic club on GF day, how big it is or what it is is opinionated in its size.
Isn't this what most people are saying?

The real disadvantage, and no-one can argue this, is the fans, Vic fans have it easy compared to non-Vic.
 

Carringbush2010

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Here's a broad perspective of what we have here, not just the GF.

Let's just pretend for a minute that back in the 80's it was the WAFL or the SANFL that was the biggest and highest profile league, let's also pretend that one of those two hold a population larger than all the other footy heartland states.

Let's then pretend that one of those leagues was then expanded and rebranded the national comp with brand new teams from vic and eventually the other states. Just like now.

I'd put my house on it that there'd be the same amount of whining from the vics.

I'd also bet my house on it, that no amount of whining will change things to be more palatable.

What we have is what we have and we can either accept it or don't.
 

LoungeLizard

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Here's a broad perspective of what we have here, not just the GF.

Let's just pretend for a minute that back in the 80's it was the WAFL or the SANFL that was the biggest and highest profile league, let's also pretend that one of those two hold a population larger than all the other footy heartland states.

Let's then pretend that one of those leagues was then expanded and rebranded the national comp with brand new teams from vic and eventually the other states. Just like now.

I'd put my house on it that there'd be the same amount of whining from the vics.

I'd also bet my house on it, that no amount of whining will change things to be more palatable.

What we have is what we have and we can either accept it or don't.
Accept or don't?

Go to any game day thread and have a gander at the whining, it is the same people doing it, acceptance is not an option.
 

Tiger2709

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only if you believe that its harder for victorian teams to travel interstate and win than it is for interstate teams to fly to another state and win.

because we play as many games interstate with a disadvantage as we do at home with an advantage
Practice makes perfect and you get to fly business class, not sure the Vic clubs have that benefit.

If an interstate side wins all its home games it then only needs to win one away and that could be the game against its co tenant to virtually assure itself of a final, the MCG tenants need to win all their home games and the home game they are forced to play at Marvel plus a couple of away games to make finals.

Without a doubt the MCG is the most neutral ground in the AFL.
 

Tiger2709

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its almost like theres too many teams in one city.....
What, there are only 2 in WA and SA should we rid ourselves of 1 in each State?

Oh you mean in Victoria.

You are right, we need less in Vic, 1 more in WA, 1 in Tassie, and we need to somehow play each team twice which then would eliminate much of the advantages.

Grand Final should eventually be selected at the start of the year and be shared by all states, irrespective of which teams make it, in fact a neutral GF would be the best...we may actually get that this year.
 

Shaks

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Can you believe the Vic bias? Now they're whinging that the eagles get to quarantine at home in their own beds while the poor Victorian clubs have to sleep in hotel beds, which is something we do every year we play the grand final.
Whether people want to admit it or not while the GF is played at the MCG every year it will never be a level playing field. As going by Caroline Wilson's logic
premierships won there by the home teams should not be rated as much as when it's won by interstate clubs who can't sleep in their own beds.
 

Tiger2709

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Can you believe the Vic bias? Now they're whinging that the eagles get to quarantine at home in their own beds while the poor Victorian clubs have to sleep in hotel beds, which is something we do every year we play the grand final.
Whether people want to admit it or not while the GF is played at the MCG every year it will never be a level playing field. As going by Caroline Wilson's logic
premierships won there by the home teams should not be rated as much as when it's won by interstate clubs who can't sleep in their own beds.
Maybe they could make both clubs jump on a plane and fly the exact same distance, then go into a hub hotel the week before, to even it out?

Although I seriously doubt anything would stop the WCE from complaining about their supposed disadvantages.
 

LoungeLizard

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Can you believe the Vic bias? Now they're whinging that the eagles get to quarantine at home in their own beds while the poor Victorian clubs have to sleep in hotel beds, which is something we do every year we play the grand final.
Whether people want to admit it or not while the GF is played at the MCG every year it will never be a level playing field. As going by Caroline Wilson's logic
premierships won there by the home teams should not be rated as much as when it's won by interstate clubs who can't sleep in their own beds.
Do you even know what an opinion piece is, LMAO, it's Caroline Wilson.

I think this show you have a huge inferiority complex
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
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What i've seen is, most Vic club supporters believe there is an advantage having the GF in Vic, but the data to date shows it isn't that great.

Also the data to date shows that any non-Vic team that finishes top 2 have an advantage, also not that great.

But not many non-Vics will agree they have any advantage, most think it's all disadvantage their way.
It's not that great buuuuuut it's the Grand Final.

Most teams won't make the Grand Final, so aren't affected.

Many teams who make the Grand Final aren't traveling from interstate to face an MCG tenant opponent, so it's a non-factor.

Most Grand Finals aren't close, so it won't be decisive.

But!!! But but but. If you are a non-Vic team, the possibility remains that you can make the Grand Final, and have to travel to face an MCG tenant opponent - maybe even one who finished lower on the ladder - and it will be close, and you'll get screwed out of a premiership.

So naturally people get antsy about it. It's like your roommate keeping a pit bull as a pet: He can swear it's a good boy and it's always tied up and you have nothing to worry about, but it is a constant source of anxiety that one day that freaking dog is going to get loose and bite you.
 

kranky al

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Practice makes perfect and you get to fly business class, not sure the Vic clubs have that benefit.

If an interstate side wins all its home games it then only needs to win one away and that could be the game against its co tenant to virtually assure itself of a final, the MCG tenants need to win all their home games and the home game they are forced to play at Marvel plus a couple of away games to make finals.

Without a doubt the MCG is the most neutral ground in the AFL.
if an interstate club wins all its home games?

i dont think the eagles ever have. in 2018 when we won the flag we won 7 against clubs flying in and 2 against the dockers.

a total of 9 games at home - we won the rest on the road.


you mexicans think we can just snap our fingers and win at optus - by that logic we should also lose every game away.


as for the mcg being the most neutral ground - heres an english lesson for you:


BD19FD16-520E-4960-8195-44294BE5A843.jpeg



the mcg has the MOST tenants meaning by very definition it is the LEAST neutral ground as its the ground where a non tenant is most likely to meet a tenant in a gf.

the most neutral ground in australia is adelaide oval - it has only 2 tenants so a low probability of meeting a tenant in a gf - its as centrally located as possible allowing a fairly even distance to travel for all clubs.

you couldnt be more wrong
 

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