Finalsiren had a crack, but some of the points don’t make sense.Here’s squiggles analysis of hga in the 2018 h&a season. Even with the commonwealth games gifting Freo an extra home game they STILL walked away with less hga than Hawthorn!!
Fixture Analysis 2018: Home Ground Advantage - Squiggle
Note (July 2020): This post employs a very basic metric of Home Ground Advantage, where it’s basically all about geography. That’s good enough for roughing things, but I don’t believe it’s really the source of HGA, and my model hasn’t used something like this for a couple of years. The major...squiggle.com.au
HOW ARE WE ADVANTAGED OVERALL???
Collingwood was above us!
Why is Hawthorn v StK in Tassie a +5 but Hawthorn v Port a +10?
How is it a limited advantage against StK but not a limited advantage against the others? What advantage do StK have in Tassie?
Similar to the actual acknowledgement re Melbourne, but still runs with +10.
This analysis may be too optimistic on Melbourne, even though they’re ranked fourth-last. That’s because the Demons host Adelaide and Fremantle in the Northern Territory, and these are classified as +10 games in Melbourne’s favour (hosting an interstate side at an alternative home ground), even though in practice, geography and history suggests it may not be deserved.
Then there is the how you treat Geelong games in Melbourne...why do Essendon get a +5 for a game against Geelong at the G? Geelong played 7 games there to Essendon’s 8.