Is the no 1 draft pick worth tanking for?

[HeathySure]

I have listed the no 1 draft pick for the 2000s and a little summary of what i think the players peak was. The number of premierships won is pretty damning which leads me to think tanking to get a number 1 pick is futile and there are better ways to win a premiership.

What are your thoughts?

2000​	Nick Riewoldt	St Kilda	no premierships	Champion - no 1 player in the league
2001​	Luke Hodge	Hawthorn	3 premierships	Champion - top 10 player
2002​	Brendon Goddard	St Kilda	no premierships	top 3 player - enigmatic
2003​	Adam Cooney	Western Bulldogs	no premierships	Brownlow medalist
2004​	Brett Deledio	Richmond	no premierships	Top 25 player
2005​	Marc Murphy	Carlton	no premierships	Top 25 player
2006​	Bryce Gibbs	Carlton	no premierships	Top 25 player
2007​	Matthew Kreuzer	Carlton	no premierships	injuries curtailed his career
2008​	Jack Watts	Melbourne	no premierships	He is Jack Watts, enough said
2009​	Tom Scully	Melbourne	no premierships	retired early - top 50 player maybe
2010​	David Swallow	Gold Coast	no premierships	top 50 player
2011​	Jonathon Patton	Greater Western Sydney	no premierships	career ended early . injury prone.
2012​	Lachie Whitfield	Greater Western Sydney	no premierships	top 25 player
2013​	Tom Boyd	Greater Western Sydney	1 Premiership	1 great year - retired early
2014​	Paddy McCartin	St Kilda	no premierships	delisted. injury prone back and playing well , top 100 player
2015​	Jacob Weitering	Carlton	no premierships	no 1 defender in the league
2016​	Andrew McGrath	Essendon	no premierships	upmarket list clogger
2017​	Cameron Rayner	Brisbane Lions	no premierships	upmarket list clogger
2018​	Sam Walsh	Carlton	no premierships	potential best midfielder
2019​	Matthew Rowell	Gold Coast	no premierships	jurys out. showing top 25 promise
2020​	Jamarra Ugle-Hagan	Western Bulldogs	no premierships	jury out
2021​	Jason Horne-Francis	North Melbourne	no premierships	jury out

 

[g_TRAIN]

Probably a bit Harsh on Rayner and McGrath.

Overall I share your view that it's not worth tanking for though. It's never worth tanking.

 

[PrinceCharles]

Not worth tanking for, but I think playing the kids and focusing on development is the best approach, pick up the early picks and invest all your energy in the future, rather than trying to prop up the team with average players and finish mid table.

 

[GPW1]

I would of thought the tanking was more aimed towards getting a priority pick (particularly when they were before the first round), rather than the number 1 pick as such.

 

[GROTTO]

Correct me if I am wrong, but only one Number 1 draft pick has played in a team that won a flag?

Hodge?

 

[Makeshft_Mauler]

Correct me if I am wrong, but only one Number 1 draft pick has played in a team that won a flag?

Hodge?

'

tom boyd

only one has won the flag playing for the team that drafted them though

 

[La Dispute]

Marc Murphy won the AFLCA award in 2011 - his peak was a fair bit higher than top 25. Gibbs came 9th in the Brownlow in 2009, so he arguably peaked as a Top 10/Top15 player also.

It's not worth tanking though. You can net a decent player, but it sinks your culture and more than likely the player you choose wont be the best player in their draft cohort. You're just as likely to end up with Jack Watts or Andy McGrath.

 

[StillAtLarge]

'

tom boyd

only one has won the flag playing for the team that drafted them though

Des Headland?

 

[M Malice]

Why do premierships need to be bought up when assessing how good a player is/was... plenty of fantastic players never one a flag > Gary Ablett Snr, Tony Lockett

Tony Lockett

Age

58

Ht

191cm

Wt

108kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.2

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

1.8

2star

M

6.3

5star

T

0.5

3star

G

4.8

5star

No current season stats available

D

8.2

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

0.0

1star

G

1.4

5star

, Nick Reiwoldt, Nathan Buckley, Bob Skilton, Robert Harvey.

 

[juss]

This year, North Melbourne are so bad, that it would be laughably impossible for Eagles and or Bombers to be bad enough to tank for the number 1 pick, so no it's not worth it this year.

In a year where the bottom 2 are locked on say 4 wins with similar percentage, then in the last few rounds of the season, it's absolutely worth playing the kids and experimenting in order to secure the number 1 pick and not win too many meaningless games. People talk about culture, but winning 1 game in the last few rounds in a dead rubber isn't a club building cultural win when you get pansted by 90 points in the weeks before and after that.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Des Headland?

Drew Banfield

Pick One 1992 draft, premierships with the Eagles in 1994 and 2006.

 

[GROTTO]

St Kilda got to "two" grand finals with a few of their Number 1 picks.

 

[T2B_]

Tanking, no.

Same time, you don't want to go too far the other way and constantly play top up or recycled mature bodies just to prop up the ladder position for a bit.

 

[Arr0w]

Only if you could trade it for 2 picks in tge top 12, otherwise not worth tanking for the number pick.

Only other benefit is attracting players in the PSD or having the upper hand in a trade for an OOC

 

[Sixpence]

Why do premierships need to be bought up when assessing how good a player is/was... plenty of fantastic players never one a flag > Gary Ablett Snr, Tony Lockett, Nick Reiwoldt, Nathan Buckley, Bob Skilton, Robert Harvey.

Because in this context, we're talking about the value of a team tanking to get pick 1. If only one of those teams have ever (well, since 2000 at least) gone on to win a flag, it makes for an interesting discussion.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Was worth it for a PP back in the day.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Tanking isn’t worth it. Just say no.

 

[M Malice]

Because in this context, we're talking about the value of a team tanking to get pick 1. If only one of those teams have ever (well, since 2000 at least) gone on to win a flag, it makes for an interesting discussion.

Nick Reiwoldt pick 1, never won a flag... was the decision to take him at pick 1 a failure/bad decision?

If the Saints had taken 4 time flag winner Shaun Burgoyne(went pick 12 in the same draft) instead of Reiwoldt would that have netted them a flag?

 

[psychobrown]

Definitely tank for a few of those early 2000s ones, but from 2008 onwards not worth it at all. One might even say that tanking has been Jack Watts.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Nick Reiwoldt pick 1, never won a flag... was the decision to take him at pick 1 a failure/bad decision?

If the Saints had taken 4 time flag winner Shaun Burgoyne(went pick 12 in the same draft) instead of Reiwoldt would that have netted them a flag?

Picking Riewoldt was always the right choice.

One of the few number 1 picks that has zero debate about it.

St Kilda was gifted 2002 number 1 pick due to Carlton's punishment though.

 

[VolgaBoatman]

Look at what happened to Melbourne when they decided to tank, another 7-8 years of terrible results. No senior players to set standards, players leaving the club because of it, so no it's not a good idea to tank.

 

[owen87]

I have listed the no 1 draft pick for the 2000s and a little summary of what i think the players peak was. The number of premierships won is pretty damning which leads me to think tanking to get a number 1 pick is futile and there are better ways to win a premiership.

What are your thoughts?

Most teams bad enough to get Pick 1 are quite bad, such that it takes them a decade or more to get back to not being bad, by which time that Pick 1 is finishing their career.

Sometimes there's a year where you don't have to be 'that' bad to come last though (St Kilda 2000 and 2001, Bulldogs 2002), or, like Hawthorn with Hodge, your pick 1 was a traded in pick whilst your team finished inside the 8.

Sometimes you have clubs that are mismanaged to varying degrees and never really come good during that players career; Richmond, Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast (David Swallow).

 

[My_Username]

The damage to your culture from out and out tanking would be more significant than the difference between pick 1 and pick 2/3/4 (whatever you would have got otherwise).

If you're genuinely crap enough that you're very close to coming last regardless, and a couple of dubious moves in terms of matchday coaching or selection is enough to make the difference (let's play that soft flanker as an inside mid and try our best backman at FF to see how they go), while still having the players believe you're trying...maybe.

 

[V_23]

Never been worth it, and I think most clubs would be under that impression by now.

If your recruiting department is good, a top 3, or even top 5, pick is good enough.

 

[Bianconeri]

Why do premierships need to be bought up when assessing how good a player is/was... plenty of fantastic players never one a flag > Gary Ablett Snr, Tony Lockett, Nick Reiwoldt, Nathan Buckley, Bob Skilton, Robert Harvey.

I think the point was more to show teams that collect number one picks don’t win premierships