Is the no 1 draft pick worth tanking for?

Nick Reiwoldt pick 1, never won a flag... was the decision to take him at pick 1 a failure/bad decision?

If the Saints had taken 4 time flag winner Shaun Burgoyne(went pick 12 in the same draft) instead of Reiwoldt would that have netted them a flag?
The argument isn't that St Kilda were wrong to take Riewoldt because he never won them a flag, it's that tanking for pick 1 hasn't really paid off in the last couple of decades, therefore there's no much point in doing it.
 
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There have been a total of 38 VFL/AFL drafts since 1981 (no drafts held in 83, 84, 85).

Comparing the top 5 picks from each draft, excluding 2021:

Pick Number
1
2
3
4
5
Premiership Player
4​
8​
10​
7​
6​
All Australian
11​
12​
7​
8​
10​
100 Games
25​
22​
24​
15​
20​
Counts are for Premiership/AA/100 games achieved at any club (not just the club which drafted them).

Based on the above, I would say no for a poor team to tank specifically for it.
 

big_e

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I have listed the no 1 draft pick for the 2000s and a little summary of what i think the players peak was. The number of premierships won is pretty damning which leads me to think tanking to get a number 1 pick is futile and there are better ways to win a premiership.

What are your thoughts?


2000
Nick RiewoldtSt Kildano premiershipsChampion - no 1 player in the league
2001
Luke HodgeHawthorn3 premiershipsChampion - top 10 player
2002
Brendon GoddardSt Kildano premiershipstop 3 player - enigmatic
2003
Adam CooneyWestern Bulldogsno premiershipsBrownlow medalist
2004
Brett DeledioRichmondno premiershipsTop 25 player
2005
Marc MurphyCarltonno premiershipsTop 25 player
2006
Bryce GibbsCarltonno premiershipsTop 25 player
2007
Matthew KreuzerCarltonno premiershipsinjuries curtailed his career
2008
Jack WattsMelbourneno premiershipsHe is Jack Watts, enough said
2009
Tom ScullyMelbourneno premiershipsretired early - top 50 player maybe
2010
David SwallowGold Coastno premiershipstop 50 player
2011
Jonathon PattonGreater Western Sydneyno premiershipscareer ended early . injury prone.
2012
Lachie WhitfieldGreater Western Sydneyno premiershipstop 25 player
2013
Tom BoydGreater Western Sydney1 Premiership1 great year - retired early
2014
Paddy McCartinSt Kildano premiershipsdelisted. injury prone back and playing well , top 100 player
2015
Jacob WeiteringCarltonno premiershipsno 1 defender in the league
2016
Andrew McGrathEssendonno premiershipsupmarket list clogger
2017
Cameron RaynerBrisbane Lionsno premiershipsupmarket list clogger
2018
Sam WalshCarltonno premiershipspotential best midfielder
2019
Matthew RowellGold Coastno premiershipsjurys out. showing top 25 promise
2020
Jamarra Ugle-HaganWestern Bulldogsno premiershipsjury out
2021
Jason Horne-FrancisNorth Melbourneno premiershipsjury out
How many of those tanked, in your opinion? Cos your post is about tanking, is it not?

And are you insinuating that anybody is tanking this year?

What about teams that tank but don't get number one, perhaps a later priority pick? Is that "worth it"?
 
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How many of those tanked, in your opinion? Cos your post is about tanking, is it not?

And are you insinuating that anybody is tanking this year?

What about teams that tank but don't get number one, perhaps a later priority pick? Is that "worth it"?
The Melbourne and Carlton sides were either so bad or tanked to get high draft picks in the 2000s and early 2010s but I find that my friends talk about that they want their sides to tank to get a number 1 pick and the evidence is there that it doesn't really help winning premierships or even getting to finals
No insinuation for this year. North Melbourne are terrible, West Coast have been hit by covid and injuries and Essendon are just crap but I am sure it has happened and will happen in the future.
I think the aim of the post is to show that you are not even guaranteed to get a top 100 player let alone a player to lift you to great heights with the number 1 pick. I peronally think draft picks are way overrated
 

Sirlemsip

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Because in this context, we're talking about the value of a team tanking to get pick 1. If only one of those teams have ever (well, since 2000 at least) gone on to win a flag, it makes for an interesting discussion.
People also seem to forget that Hawthorn didn't finish last the year before we drafted Hodge.
Pick 1 was a priority pick awarded to Fremantle who finished last that year with only two wins.

In 2001 Hawthorn actually finished in the top 6 and made it to the Preliminary final.

We traded Croad and McPharlin for picks 1 (Hodge), 20 and 36 (Sam Mitchell).
 
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Correct me if I am wrong, but only one Number 1 draft pick has played in a team that won a flag?

Hodge?
Ummmm If you want to include AFL drafts from 1990 onwards.....

1992: Drew Banfield. Played in the 1994 and 2006 eagles premiership sides.

1998: Des Headland. Played in the 2002 side with Brisbane. that 2002 AFL grand final was his last game for Brisbane before he was traded to the dockers.

edit.....

Saying that, these players were number 1 picks but made grand finals with certain sides.

1994: Jeff White played 3 years at the dockers. goes to the demons and played in the 2000 grand final

1996: Michael Gardiner: Played in the 2005 grand final with west coast.

1997: Travis Johnstone. played in the 2000 grand final.

1999: Josh Fraser: played in the 2002-3 grand final sides with collingwood.

2000: Nick Riewoldt: played in the 2990-10 grand finals with the saints

2002: Brendon Goddard: played in the 2009-2010 grand finals with the saints.
 
Last edited:
Ummmm If you want to include AFL drafts from 1990 onwards.....

1992: Drew Banfield. Played in the 1994 and 2006 eagles premiership sides.

1998: Des Headland. Played in the 2002 side with Brisbane. that 2002 AFL grand final was his last game for Brisbane before he was traded to the dockers.
Hmm no I dont........

That wasnt the OP point of discussion.
 
Recruiting in recent years is far better than the chook-lotto of drafts in the 80s and 90s.

Culture > draft picks though, especially if we're talking differences at the pointy end of the draft where the first handful of kids are all outstanding talents anyway.
 
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Recruiting in recent years is far better than the chook-lotto of drafts in the 80s and 90s.

Culture > draft picks though, especially if we're talking differences at the pointy end of the draft where the first handful of kids are all outstanding talents anyway.
Scouting is improving over the decades too. Not to mention development coaches.

Back in the 1990s, there was no YouTube.

Now days you can watch a VFL or SANFL or WAFL game and collect highlights of a certain player taking an aerial mark or set shot on goal.
 
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Marc Murphy won the AFLCA award in 2011 - his peak was a fair bit higher than top 25. Gibbs came 9th in the Brownlow in 2009, so he arguably peaked as a Top 10/Top15 player also.

It's not worth tanking though. You can net a decent player, but it sinks your culture and more than likely the player you choose wont be the best player in their draft cohort. You're just as likely to end up with Jack Watts or Andy McGrath.
Looking at those 3 number 1 picks Carlton had in 2005-7.

Marc Murphy was easily the best out of the 3. Your team got 300 games out of him. Sort of surprised he didn't get All Australian in his career. 2011 was the best case he could of got in. Played all 24 games. 700 disposals and 22 goals, 13 behinds.

Bryce Gibbs was the 2006 1st pick. Solid B grader. Was never an all Australian player but had a few solid seasons over a decade at Carlton until his career rotted at the crows.

2007 number 1 pick was Matt Kreuzer. Played 194 games. Had some injury prone seasons but was solid when fit.


The thing was trading Chris Judd at the end of 2007 helped improved all 3 of those blokes.
 

maskmcgee

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I have listed the no 1 draft pick for the 2000s and a little summary of what i think the players peak was.

Why? You don't tank for the #1 pick from 5th or something, you'd already be getting pick 2 or 3 if you didn't tank.

It'd be far more worthwhile comparing the difference between the best and the second best player in each individual draft. Is there enough of a difference between them to be worth intentionally losing 2 or 3 games you might of won if you tried?
 
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The biggest advantage in finishing last should be getting pick 1 in the PSD and a free swing at any uncontracted player.

It's rare there is a consensus pick 1 in the ND that is that much better than other players in the top 10.

We'll probably get pick 2 this year and it may still be pick 1. I don't care one way or the other. If it was the NBA I would really want pick 1.
 

hoddo22

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Looking at those 3 number 1 picks Carlton had in 2005-7.

Marc Murphy was easily the best out of the 3. Your team got 300 games out of him. Sort of surprised he didn't get All Australian in his career. 2011 was the best case he could of got in. Played all 24 games. 700 disposals and 22 goals, 13 behinds.

Bryce Gibbs was the 2006 1st pick. Solid B grader. Was never an all Australian player but had a few solid seasons over a decade at Carlton until his career rotted at the crows.

2007 number 1 pick was Matt Kreuzer. Played 194 games. Had some injury prone seasons but was solid when fit.


The thing was trading Chris Judd at the end of 2007 helped improved all 3 of those blokes.
Murphy was AA in 2011

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I have listed the no 1 draft pick for the 2000s and a little summary of what i think the players peak was. The number of premierships won is pretty damning which leads me to think tanking to get a number 1 pick is futile and there are better ways to win a premiership.

What are your thoughts?


2000
Nick RiewoldtSt Kildano premiershipsChampion - no 1 player in the league
2001
Luke HodgeHawthorn3 premiershipsChampion - top 10 player
2002
Brendon GoddardSt Kildano premiershipstop 3 player - enigmatic
2003
Adam CooneyWestern Bulldogsno premiershipsBrownlow medalist
2004
Brett DeledioRichmondno premiershipsTop 25 player
2005
Marc MurphyCarltonno premiershipsTop 25 player
2006
Bryce GibbsCarltonno premiershipsTop 25 player
2007
Matthew KreuzerCarltonno premiershipsinjuries curtailed his career
2008
Jack WattsMelbourneno premiershipsHe is Jack Watts, enough said
2009
Tom ScullyMelbourneno premiershipsretired early - top 50 player maybe
2010
David SwallowGold Coastno premiershipstop 50 player
2011
Jonathon PattonGreater Western Sydneyno premiershipscareer ended early . injury prone.
2012
Lachie WhitfieldGreater Western Sydneyno premiershipstop 25 player
2013
Tom BoydGreater Western Sydney1 Premiership1 great year - retired early
2014
Paddy McCartinSt Kildano premiershipsdelisted. injury prone back and playing well , top 100 player
2015
Jacob WeiteringCarltonno premiershipsno 1 defender in the league
2016
Andrew McGrathEssendonno premiershipsupmarket list clogger
2017
Cameron RaynerBrisbane Lionsno premiershipsupmarket list clogger
2018
Sam WalshCarltonno premiershipspotential best midfielder
2019
Matthew RowellGold Coastno premiershipsjurys out. showing top 25 promise
2020
Jamarra Ugle-HaganWestern Bulldogsno premiershipsjury out
2021
Jason Horne-FrancisNorth Melbourneno premiershipsjury out

You do realise they can select any player I'm the draft outside FS and Academy players?

As in talent I'd and development is the issue not having literally the best pick in that draft.
 
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The biggest advantage in finishing last should be getting pick 1 in the PSD and a free swing at any uncontracted player.

It's rare there is a consensus pick 1 in the ND that is that much better than other players in the top 10.

We'll probably get pick 2 this year and it may still be pick 1. I don't care one way or the other. If it was the NBA I would really want pick 1.

The problem with pick one there is too much pressure on it to get it right and I'm not talking as in oy to get the best player but get a player who will be a 200 gamer. No one wants a bust here so imo they will opt for maybe the most consistent mid over say a artin or Judd who came with higher upside but also with a query on them like Judd's double shoulder recos and martin's fitness.

This the means they get a Murphy style consistent accumulator over say a Dale Thomas (pre injury) impact player who wins games off his own boot.

When it comes to taking KPF it's even trickier, they look at say a Boyd or Watts playing in u18 against defenders a foot shorter then them and having anti density rules way less physical and they look a million dollars.

Get them into afl and the flooding style tactics , team defense and kpd they same size and athletic profile puts many to water.

Some of the more physical fwds may not look as food in open play but they translate veter to afl hence your mackays and such slipping.

So it's not the pick bit teh talent id and parameter's of safe picking and kpf hard to gauge that makes it look worse then it is.

Pick 2 to 5 fares very well.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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I have listed the no 1 draft pick for the 2000s and a little summary of what i think the players peak was. The number of premierships won is pretty damning which leads me to think tanking to get a number 1 pick is futile and there are better ways to win a premiership.

What are your thoughts?


2000
Nick RiewoldtSt Kildano premiershipsChampion - no 1 player in the league
2001
Luke HodgeHawthorn3 premiershipsChampion - top 10 player
2002
Brendon GoddardSt Kildano premiershipstop 3 player - enigmatic
2003
Adam CooneyWestern Bulldogsno premiershipsBrownlow medalist
2004
Brett DeledioRichmondno premiershipsTop 25 player
2005
Marc MurphyCarltonno premiershipsTop 25 player
2006
Bryce GibbsCarltonno premiershipsTop 25 player
2007
Matthew KreuzerCarltonno premiershipsinjuries curtailed his career
2008
Jack WattsMelbourneno premiershipsHe is Jack Watts, enough said
2009
Tom ScullyMelbourneno premiershipsretired early - top 50 player maybe
2010
David SwallowGold Coastno premiershipstop 50 player
2011
Jonathon PattonGreater Western Sydneyno premiershipscareer ended early . injury prone.
2012
Lachie WhitfieldGreater Western Sydneyno premiershipstop 25 player
2013
Tom BoydGreater Western Sydney1 Premiership1 great year - retired early
2014
Paddy McCartinSt Kildano premiershipsdelisted. injury prone back and playing well , top 100 player
2015
Jacob WeiteringCarltonno premiershipsno 1 defender in the league
2016
Andrew McGrathEssendonno premiershipsupmarket list clogger
2017
Cameron RaynerBrisbane Lionsno premiershipsupmarket list clogger
2018
Sam WalshCarltonno premiershipspotential best midfielder
2019
Matthew RowellGold Coastno premiershipsjurys out. showing top 25 promise
2020
Jamarra Ugle-HaganWestern Bulldogsno premiershipsjury out
2021
Jason Horne-FrancisNorth Melbourneno premiershipsjury out
Jury out on Horne Francis? Has played about 10 games. Pull your head in.

Hodge had 4 premierships.
 
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