Is the top 4 set?

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Falcon3518

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Mar 13, 2022
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Agree with that, we are pretty healthy at the moment though. Our run home is pretty much perfect. If we are good enough, we go 8-0, if not, then we are just making up the numbers anyway. I assume we will start favourite in every remaining game. Only 2 top 8 sides we play are home to Freo and Brissy. The Gold Coast away game in 2 weeks is gonna be massive and easily our hardest remaining match.

I think today was a good loss that we can launch from, I felt it was the best we have played for ages after a shocking start to the game. Of course we could lose to West Coast next week and its over.

I think Carlton is the only team that could take Melbourne out of finals though. I just couldnt see Geelong (or us if we make it that far) stopping their run later in the game. Both teams probably too old. Then the interstate teams will have to beat them at the G, seems unlikely in finals.

The lions game and port over there will be the hardest IMO. I can’t get a read on freo anymore.
 

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Arr0w

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Agree with that, we are pretty healthy at the moment though. Our run home is pretty much perfect. If we are good enough, we go 8-0, if not, then we are just making up the numbers anyway. I assume we will start favourite in every remaining game. Only 2 top 8 sides we play are home to Freo and Brissy. The Gold Coast away game in 2 weeks is gonna be massive and easily our hardest remaining match.

I think today was a good loss that we can launch from, I felt it was the best we have played for ages after a shocking start to the game. Of course we could lose to West Coast next week and its over.

I think Carlton is the only team that could take Melbourne out of finals though. I just couldnt see Geelong (or us if we make it that far) stopping their run later in the game. Both teams probably too old. Then the interstate teams will have to beat them at the G, seems unlikely in finals.

Have stated this a number of times, this year, any side that make finals and have a healthy list is the most dangerous. Sides like the Tigers could win it from any position in the 8, I wouldn't underestimate your side
 

Tippett2Goal

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Looking at the run home each of the top 7 have, in order for Collingwood or Sydney to make top 4 they need to win 2 more games than the 2 of the 4 teams above them (or 3 more games than Melbourne).

So just assuming the favourites win all games not listed here, I think these are the pivotal games for deciding top 4

R16 - Bris vs WB, GC vs Coll
R17 - Dees vs Cats, Swans vs WB
R18 - Blues vs Cats, Swans vs Freo
R19 - Freo vs Rich, WB vs Dees
R20 - Freo vs Dees, Cats vs WB, Rich vs Bris
R21 - Dees vs Pies, Freo vs WB, Bris vs Blues
R22 - Dees vs Blues, Swans vs Pies
R23 - Bris vs Dees, Blues vs Pies


Dees have 6 games
Bris have 4 games
Freo have 4 games
Cats have 3 games
Blues have 4 games
Swans have 3 games
Pies have 4 games


Suggests to me that there is still a fair bit of play in the top 4

Cats are likely to bank 5 more wins so would pencil them into top 4 assuming they don't drop all 3 of their harder games.
 

crows dude

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ATM top 4 is Melbourne, Geelong, Bris, Freo.

my Squiggle says

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Phipppppa

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I see us dropping a few costly games because of Stewart’s absence. Could cost us a top 4 spot.

Let’s hope we can function well without Stewart against teams like Melbourne, Carlton and Port in Adelaide.
 

Falcon3518

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I can’t lie it’s nice seeing the two oldest clubs in one and two. Does anyone know the last time that happened?

I can’t see us making top four but I can see a 1999 situation happening where the 3rd best team knocks off the best in a prelim and folds in the granny. The only way us (or more likely Brisbane) can win the premiership is by being an accident of history.

You’ll make top 4 cause of the easy run and GMHBA games then go out in straight sets, probably against us in the SF.
 

Fadge

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Leigh Montagna had Collingwood in his Top 4 last night.

Always thought Leigh was an astute judge.
 

Sky

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You’ll make top 4 cause of the easy run and GMHBA games then go out in straight sets, probably against us in the SF.
You couldn’t beat us when we were forced to host you at your own home ground. If it was in Geelong you wouldn’t have got within 5 goals. Lose-lose scenario for you buddy.

If the 2017 qualifying final was in Geelong where it would’ve been in any other competition in the world then the Crows would’ve been premiers. Win-win situation because Crows failed.
 

Falcon3518

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You couldn’t beat us when we were forced to host you at your own home ground. If it was in Geelong you wouldn’t have got within 5 goals. Lose-lose scenario for you buddy.

If the 2017 qualifying final was in Geelong where it would’ve been in any other competition in the world then the Crows would’ve been premiers. Win-win situation because Crows failed.

Imagine having a 95% win rate at KP and whinging about other home ground advantages, priceless. MCG is only 1 hour drive away too
 

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Blue1980

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No, I fully understand that our situation of 9 games in Geelong and 5 at the MCG is the best set-up in world sport during the home and away season since we travel interstate like a Victorian club. I don’t think many people would disagree unless they’re in denial.

What matters is over the last 10 years of simply accomplishing nothing it proves these extra MCG games don’t help prepare whatsoever come finals. I’d rather play 11 games in Geelong and get 1-2 MCG games like a non Victorian club during the year because that permanent top 8 spot we’ve claimed for most of our early 20’s lives is guaranteed top 4.

I couldn’t imagine having 14 games at home every year like you, s**t would be crazy. 4 interstate teams get 12, the other 4 get 11 and we only get 9. Yes, I’m aware the MCG is a neutral venue for you against the other tenants and Kardinia is a safe haven for us but why shouldn’t it be? It’s our home. You’d have my 100% blessing to play at home at Punt Rd if that’s what Richmond wanted.

To add to this we simply don’t need to be hosting sides at the MCG and I believe teams like yours shouldn’t be forced to play at Marvel. You’re being screwed yourself but we get screwed the hardest due to no home finals which is where games matter (also includes the Marvel clubs) and this only occurs because certain teams can’t fund their own existence without prostituting themselves out interstate.

Ground advantage is overrated, it isn’t like cricket with different pitch conditions suiting different types of players.

Home ground advantage helps a bit but doesn’t make a crap side good. Not sure how Geelong have a greater advantage than anyone else, or a disadvantage.
 

Coolangatta

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Ground advantage is overrated, it isn’t like cricket with different pitch conditions suiting different types of players.

Home ground advantage helps a bit but doesn’t make a crap side good. Not sure how Geelong have a greater advantage than anyone else, or a disadvantage.
I think conditions matter, some teams play better in warm, humid conditions, some player better in the cold and the wet, and some play better in windy or dewy conditions.

But the dimensions aren’t a big issue. Look how s**t West Coast have been at home. And I remember when Freo under Ross Lyon got smashed by over 120pts against Geelong away but beat them at the same ground this year.
 

Blue1980

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I can’t lie it’s nice seeing the two oldest clubs in one and two. Does anyone know the last time that happened?

I can’t see us making top four but I can see a 1999 situation happening where the 3rd best team knocks off the best in a prelim and folds in the granny. The only way us (or more likely Brisbane) can win the premiership is by being an accident of history.
Thats generous calling us 3rd best in 1999, we were a far better side in 2000 actually.

99 we were also beneficiaries of the last year of the stupid old finals system. Finished 6th flogged by 3rd, get double chance then play Eagles at the MCG (who had won away the previous week), because of the stupid having to have one final at the MCG rule.

Difference was Essendon were even better in 2000 than in 99 also, and we copped injuries at the wrong time on top of that.
 

Macca180

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Why does everybody cry so much about Geelongs home ground advantage...

Every team has home games....

I'm not so sure about the Cats going out in straight sets either.

For me it's Melbourne, Cats and Tigers.
 

Falcon3518

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It's almost as though teams don't win many home games when they're going bad, and win most of them when they're going well.

Who would have thought?

Seems people don’t know what the word advantage is and think it means guaranteed wins. Amazing, education has really decline in Australia, need to look into it.


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catstorm

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Why does everybody cry so much about Geelongs home ground advantage...

Every team has home games....

I'm not so sure about the Cats going out in straight sets either.

For me it's Melbourne, Cats and Tigers.
Doesn't happen often to us, but people keep predicting it.

Only year we went out in straight sets was 2014, but hey lets see what happens.
 

Falcon3518

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My god are you still sooking it up.

Nah cause we will beat you in the SF to make you go out in straight sets. Another wasted top 4 spot and another year added to your 11 year drought. It’s so funny seeing you guys pretending to be a successful club since 2011. Almost as bad as port with their 37 flags


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Footy_Fan2007

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Nah cause we will beat you in the SF to make you go out in straight sets. Another wasted top 4 spot and another year added to your 11 year drought. It’s so funny seeing you guys pretending to be a successful club since 2011. Almost as bad as port with their 37 flags


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😂😂😂😂 I am genuinely laughing out loud.
Imagine carrying on sooking for 4 days straight about a loss.
Get a life mate 😂
 

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