Is the top 4 set?

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Angus Young

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 3, 2008
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I will be shocked if Collingwood beat Melbourne now things are getting important.

If they do, I will change my mind and be on the Pies bandwagon.
 

PJays

Club Legend
Nov 2, 2020
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Um, no, you beat them at Marvel in round 5. What are you on about?

Apologies, Melbourne were briefly favourites at one point over the weekend. Not sure it changes my point though…
Forgive the brain fade

Yes, beating GC up there is a good result.

As is beating Essendon at the moment (whose other results have been as good as almost anyone's outside Geelong, for the last 6 or 7 weeks now).

But my point is, those good wins have been mixed in with very mediocre wins- eg Scraping over the line vs bad teams like Adelaide, North and GWS. To even make a Grand Final, Collingwood will need to play 2 or 3 very good games in a row against quality opposition.
 

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PJays

Club Legend
Nov 2, 2020
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Sorry, I should have qualified my statement - it is since 2000, under the current finals system.

It may be a small sample size, but it's all we have. And it does indicate that percentage means diddly squat come finals time.
Ah fair enough

Well I stand by my suggestion that a much larger sample size of relevant data will give a very different conclusion to the one you clearly want to be true.
 

craffles

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2008
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So are the results with Melbourne and Freo just flashes in the pan?

Yes. Look at your collective season. Like I said it's been a good year but you've hardly been burying sides, especially weak ones and lost to some absolutely putrid sides.

Don't get me wrong, if I was a pies fan there's plenty to like for the future it has been a great year but I will happily change my username to CrafflesLovesGinnivan for a year if pies win the flag
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
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Ah fair enough

Well I stand by my suggestion that a much larger sample size of relevant data will give a very different conclusion to the one you clearly want to be true.
Oh well, I guess we'll have to wait 200 years to assess that.
 

dean33

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
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I'm sure I heard Nick Riewoldt say the Pies could win the flag two or three weeks ago, and that's just one example.
Really clutching at straws aren’t you? Again why do pies fans care if no one rates them? Just enjoy your time in the sun, I’m pretty confident it won’t last long.
 

demondavey

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 18, 2005
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2 of the last 3 we have beaten , we start even chance in each of these last games

Feel like Swans are the over rated team of the comp by a mile - Theyve lost to the bombers and port , teams we have beaten or "scraped over the line against" but we are more vulnerable come september? Spare me
Why are Sydney overrated? They’ve beaten Melbourne and Geelong? You can’t just say X beat Y so they aren’t as good etc etc.

Very even top 4
 

SuperSub17

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Sep 25, 2011
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Forgive the brain fade

Yes, beating GC up there is a good result.

As is beating Essendon at the moment (whose other results have been as good as almost anyone's outside Geelong, for the last 6 or 7 weeks now).

But my point is, those good wins have been mixed in with very mediocre wins- eg Scraping over the line vs bad teams like Adelaide, North and GWS. To even make a Grand Final, Collingwood will need to play 2 or 3 very good games in a row against quality opposition.
To be fair, Adelaide haven’t been easy to beat at home most of the season. They beat Richmond and Carlton, lost to Freo by 1 point after conceding the last 3, and were within 5 of Melbourne well into the last quarter. They even had the Saints on toast back when they were top 4 and flying, and burnt it with inaccuracy. They have been routinely belted away though.

Even GWS were playing ok at the time, having given Brisbane a huge scare at the Gabba two weeks prior. And Collingwood really should have won that game by 40+, as 33 scores to 17 would suggest.

No doubt we have to lift to get deep into finals. But I don’t believe it’s a stretch at all to be hopeful of winning a final.
 

PJays

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Nov 2, 2020
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Oh well, I guess we'll have to wait 200 years to assess that.
Or, you could look at the last 15 or 20...

Here's a relevant data set for this discussion

The last 25 times a team with a percentage under 110 has played a team with a percentage over 120 in finals, the results have been 5 wins, 20 losses with average losing margin of 47

This doesn't bode well for Collingwood's (106.2%) chances of winning multiple games in the same finals series vs teams with percentages over 120 (Gee 135.5%, Melb 131.6%, Syd 126.5%, Bris 123.3%)

YearTeam%Opponent%ResultPercentage gapLosing margin
2021​
GWS
99.7​
Syd
119.9​
Won by 1
20.2​
2021​
Ess
109.1​
WB
132.8​
Lost by 49
23.7​
49​
2021​
GWS
99.7​
Gee
126.7​
Lost by 35
27​
35​
2020​
Coll
109.5​
Gee
136.8​
Lost by 68
27.3​
68​
2016​
NM
105.2​
Ade
138.3​
Lost by 62
33.1​
62​
2015​
NM
106.5​
Richmond
123.1​
Won by 17
16.6​
2015​
NM
106.5​
Syd
127.1​
Won by 26
20.6​
2015​
NM
106.5​
WC
148.2​
Lost by 25
41.7​
24​
2014​
Rich
105.8​
PA
129.9​
Lost by 57
24.1​
57​
2013​
Carl
106.7​
Rich
122.8​
Won by 20
16.1​
2013​
Carl
106.7​
Syd
132.5​
Lost by 24
25.8​
24​
2011​
Ess
100​
Carl
130.9​
Lost by 62
30.9​
62​
2011​
Syd
109.3​
Haw
144.1​
Lost by 36
34.8​
36​
2010​
Syd
108.3​
WB
125.4​
Lost by 5
17.1​
5​
2010​
Fre
103.9​
Gee
147.9​
Lost by 69
44​
69​
2009​
Bris
106.7​
WB
122.6​
Lost by 51
15.9​
51​
2007​
Coll
101​
Syd
119.6​
Won by 38
18.6​
2007​
Coll
101​
Gee
152.8​
Lost by 5
51.8​
5​
2007​
NM
109.3​
Gee
152.8​
Lost by 106
43.5​
106​
2006​
Fre
109.8​
Ade
142.1​
Lost by 30
32.3​
30​
2006​
Fre
109.8​
Syd
128.7​
Lost by 35
18.9​
35​
2006​
WB
106.4​
WC
120.4​
Lost by 74
14​
74​
2005​
Port
98.2​
Ade
136.5​
Lost by 83
38.3​
83​
2004​
Ess
102.4​
Gee
119.9​
Lost by 10
17.5​
10​
2004​
Syd
107.4​
StK
128​
Lost by 51
20.6​
51​
46.8
 

dean33

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
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We don't.
Think going off the pies posters in this thread you care very much. Every post is trying to convince other posters you are the real deal.
Again don’t worry that no one rates you.

See how you shape up against the dees this week, I’m predicting a comfortable Melbourne win, if pies get up I will admit I’m wrong.
 
Last edited:

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
9,218
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Melbourne
AFL Club
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Or, you could look at the last 15 or 20...

Here's a relevant data set for this discussion

The last 25 times a team with a percentage under 110 has played a team with a percentage over 120 in finals, the results have been 5 wins, 20 losses with average losing margin of 47

This doesn't bode well for Collingwood's (106.2%) chances of winning multiple games in the same finals series vs teams with percentages over 120 (Gee 135.5%, Melb 131.6%, Syd 126.5%, Bris 123.3%)

YearTeam%Opponent%ResultPercentage gapLosing margin
2021​
GWS
99.7​
Syd
119.9​
Won by 1
20.2​
2021​
Ess
109.1​
WB
132.8​
Lost by 49
23.7​
49​
2021​
GWS
99.7​
Gee
126.7​
Lost by 35
27​
35​
2020​
Coll
109.5​
Gee
136.8​
Lost by 68
27.3​
68​
2016​
NM
105.2​
Ade
138.3​
Lost by 62
33.1​
62​
2015​
NM
106.5​
Richmond
123.1​
Won by 17
16.6​
2015​
NM
106.5​
Syd
127.1​
Won by 26
20.6​
2015​
NM
106.5​
WC
148.2​
Lost by 25
41.7​
24​
2014​
Rich
105.8​
PA
129.9​
Lost by 57
24.1​
57​
2013​
Carl
106.7​
Rich
122.8​
Won by 20
16.1​
2013​
Carl
106.7​
Syd
132.5​
Lost by 24
25.8​
24​
2011​
Ess
100​
Carl
130.9​
Lost by 62
30.9​
62​
2011​
Syd
109.3​
Haw
144.1​
Lost by 36
34.8​
36​
2010​
Syd
108.3​
WB
125.4​
Lost by 5
17.1​
5​
2010​
Fre
103.9​
Gee
147.9​
Lost by 69
44​
69​
2009​
Bris
106.7​
WB
122.6​
Lost by 51
15.9​
51​
2007​
Coll
101​
Syd
119.6​
Won by 38
18.6​
2007​
Coll
101​
Gee
152.8​
Lost by 5
51.8​
5​
2007​
NM
109.3​
Gee
152.8​
Lost by 106
43.5​
106​
2006​
Fre
109.8​
Ade
142.1​
Lost by 30
32.3​
30​
2006​
Fre
109.8​
Syd
128.7​
Lost by 35
18.9​
35​
2006​
WB
106.4​
WC
120.4​
Lost by 74
14​
74​
2005​
Port
98.2​
Ade
136.5​
Lost by 83
38.3​
83​
2004​
Ess
102.4​
Gee
119.9​
Lost by 10
17.5​
10​
2004​
Syd
107.4​
StK
128​
Lost by 51
20.6​
51​
46.8
Good stats. I'll call Fly and tell him not to bother turning up in September :rolleyes:
 

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Corn Cobbers

All Australian
Dec 9, 2015
963
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Percentage is one thing but there's no precedent for what Collingwood are doing. Ten wins on the trot by small margins against teams ranging from 1st to 18th. We'll never see anything like it again. Not frightening but you would still be pretty nervous playing us until the streak is broken. The self-belief is significant and you can see it. One loss will pop the bubble though and next match is the biggest test yet with Melbourne back to their scary best.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
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I'm still wondering if we're allowed to suggest that Geelong are one of the two most likely teams to win it this season, or whether we have to wait another eight weeks to make such a bold claim (like we were told five weeks ago)?!?
 

Corn Cobbers

All Australian
Dec 9, 2015
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I'm still wondering if we're allowed to suggest that Geelong are one of the two most likely teams to win it this season, or whether we have to wait another eight weeks to make such a bold claim (like we were told five weeks ago)?!?
They will choke again, too old and slow for September
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
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They will choke again, too old and slow for September
You can make about 25% yield on your investment in two months by laying them if you believe that is the case.

Add another 5% for laying Collingwood because 106%.

Easy money for the naysayers, surely?
 

Forward Press

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Jul 5, 2011
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Think it's getting quite circular now - no Collingwood fan rates themselves as a flag favourite, but as the saying goes you've got to be in it to win it and the double chance is crucial to that - since 2000, only one side has ever won it from outside the top 4 and you could argue with their win-loss record and percentage (Dogs 2016) that they were unlucky to only be 7th that year.

15 other sides would prefer to be where the Pies are on the ladder at this moment.
 

OniAu

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 4, 2007
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Why are Sydney overrated? They’ve beaten Melbourne and Geelong? You can’t just say X beat Y so they aren’t as good etc etc.

Very even top 4

Thats the whole basis of every footy nuffies point towards collingwood " theyve only scaped home" Yet beating Melb & Freo comfortably is overlooked , just using the same logic
 

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