Is there anyone here who thinks we WON'T make finals? (September bound?)

Matt_TY

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Jul 19, 2003
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Come on Doggies. If they finish this off then results-wise it's been a very good weekend for us.
If the Dees get up too then Sydney's percentage makes it very helpful for us. It's a shame that a Heater-less GWS plays both teams in the remaining weeks though.
 
May 25, 2006
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Come on Doggies. If they finish this off then results-wise it's been a very good weekend for us.
If the Dees get up too then Sydney's percentage makes it very helpful for us. It's a shame that a Heater-less GWS plays both teams in the remaining weeks though.

You're looking at it all wrong.You're looking at not going down the ladder rather than moving up.

Doggies winning helps but not that much, North never going to threaten us on the ladder but its good to seem them eliminated.

We want the Swans to win tonight and GWS to lose in subsequent weeks. We need to pass Melb and GWS on the ladder (and the Hawks....or at least two of the three) and we have the Swans covered on percentage so it wont matter if they draw equal on points
 
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May 12, 2014
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Well the only way CFC can be knocked out of finals is if they lose the next two games and either Geelong or North Melbourne win the next two and end up with better percentage. My personal opinion is CFC will go undefeated for the rest of the home and away season pushing for a top four position.
 
May 25, 2006
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Well the only way CFC can be knocked out of finals is if they lose the next two games and either Geelong or North Melbourne win the next two and end up with better percentage. My personal opinion is CFC will go undefeated for the rest of the home and away season pushing for a top four position.

That would also require the Swans and Power to also win both their games, otherwise they will get knocked out instead of Collingwood.
 
May 25, 2006
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If we beat Port there is a chance we may not even have to beat Freo to lock in 5th spot. Could be a chance to rest sore bodies.

Fourth will almost certainly be still up for grabs. No rest. Cant see any scenario where we enter round 23 in fifth and cant go up or down the ladder.

Would have been nice if we were scheduled to play on the Sunday with other games results known but thats why the AFL schedules rd 23 games late in the season.
 
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May 25, 2006
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Carn the Swans!
Did us a big favour today.

Need to do us 2 more!

Theres lots of combinations and permutations . We dont neccessarily need two more favours from the Swans. Out-win compared to Hawthorn and closing the percentage gap on them and we dont have to rely on anybody!!!!

In other words, keep winning and you make your own luck.
 

Matt_TY

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You're looking at it all wrong.You're looking at not going down the ladder rather than moving up.

Doggies winning helps but not that much, North never going to threaten us on the ladder but its good to seem them eliminated.

We want the Swans to win tonight and GWS to lose in subsequent weeks. We need to pass Melb and GWS on the ladder (and the Hawks....or at least two of the three) and we have the Swans covered on percentage so it wont matter if they draw equal on points

I'm looking at worst case scenarios, and how we can miss the eight (as per the topic). The only way we can miss the eight assumes we lose both remaining games.
The only way for us to improve ladder position is to win, and if we win one more we're mathematically safe and other results cease to matter at all on that front.
Of course we want to and absolutely can improve ladder position, both remaining games are very gettable.

EDIT: Also, forget percentage, if North had won today and both remaining games, while we lost both remaining games, they'd have more wins than us. And if we lost both remaining games, then we couldn't pass GWS on the ladder as they already have the same number of wins plus a draw. So, infact, Melbourne beating GWS in the last round would be disastrous for us in that scenario.
 
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El cane

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Think we fall into 8th on percentage now even if disaster strikes and we lose to port and freo. Think we can roll port and freo to go as high as 3rd. I would settle for eagles hosting GWS in finals week 1 and us beating the tigers at the G from 4th.

Port and Dees in trouble. Imagine if the dees miss again losing to eagles and GWS.
We have to smash Robbie Grey next week he’s been our giant killer in the last few years.
Roos still alive with a dead rubber against the crows and a last round blowout against the saints.
Dons could sneak in if they beat tigers and port in the last round and Roos stumble.
Geelong have 2 easy wins to bring them into the 8, how!
Hawks safe also, damn!
Swans have got out of jail again. How!
GWS injuries aside could lift to 2nd if the eagles stumble twice.
If the eagles stumble twice we can get to second but need the swans to tae out hawthorn. Just do it! We would have the swans at the G in first week of the finals.
 

HFF

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Mathematically, defeat Port in another massive 8 point game we will have sealed our fate and return to finals.
We still looks like we have done enough overall but I'd much prefer to have destiny in our hands than relying on results to go our way in the next 2 weeks.
 

Torpy

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May 6, 2006
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For what its worth, the bookies have us and Hawthorn both at $1.85 to make the top 4, with GWS at $1.50, so it really is still open and we should absolutely still aim for a top 4 spot rather than simply 'lock in finals' which we have basically already done, barring a disastrous last 2 games where we lose both heavily plus have all the teams below us winning and we and miss out on the 8 on %.

Also Collingwood isn't even a backable team on the bookies to make the 8 - that is about as much as a lock mathematically when bookies aren't offering odds on your team to make the 8.

TLDR: We're playing finals boys. Let's push for top 4 now!
 
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