Analysis Is this 2003 or a false dawn?

bergholt

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This year feels a bit like 2003. If it's really that, if it's the start of an extended run of success thanks to a talented young list, then there should be a bunch of young talent coming through. And we shouldn't be relying on our older players too much.

For me, tbh, jury still out on both of those things. Last night certainly an example: Riewoldt kicked goals, Dempster and Gilbo were very good in defence, Joey got lots of the footy. Not to mention mid-agers in Steven, Geary and Armo being very good. Conversely, a few kids did little: Acres, Sinclair, Billings, Wright, McKenzie, etc.

So I'm a little worried that this turns out to be a false dawn.

Best way to get a sense of the age of the good players is to look at the B&F. Here's what ended up being the top 10 in 2002, 2003, and 2004.

2002 best and fairest placings:
1st: 19 year old (Riewoldt)
2nd: 22 year old (Hayes)
3rd: 21 year old (Baker)
4th: 29 year old (Thompson)
5th: 25 year old (Lawrence)
6th: 24 year old (Hamill)
7th: 22 year old (Milne)
8th: 25 year old (Hudghton)
9th: 22 year old (Black)
10th: 29 year old (Peckett)

Young (18-23): 5
Middle age (24-28): 3
Veteran (29+): 2

2003 best and fairest placings:
1st: 23 year old (Hayes)
2nd: 31 year old (Harvey)
3rd: 26 year old (Powell)
4th: 20 year old (Riewoldt)
5th: 26 year old (Jones)
6th: 27 year old (Gehrig)
7th: 22 year old (Baker)
8th: 25 year old (Hamill)
9th: 19 year old (Clarke)
10th: 26 year old (Hudghton)

Young (18-23): 4
Middle age (24-28): 5
Veteran (29+): 1

2004 best and fairest placings:
1st: 21 year old (Riewoldt)
2nd: 19 year old (Ball)
3rd: 24 year old (Hayes)
4th: 20 year old (Dal Santo)
5th: 27 year old (Jones)
6th: 28 year old (Gehrig)
7th: 32 year old (Harvey)
8th: 23 year old (Baker)
9th: 26 year old (Voss)
10th: 23 year old (Penny)

Young (18-23): 5
Middle age (24-28): 4
Veteran (29+): 1

Pretty young names there, especially in 04. "Young" players were half of the top ten. And that was a year where we won 10 in a row and made a prelim, so they performed in big games. It was a young list but it was showing a lot - the top 4 in the B&F were younger than 24 - and sprinkled in were Harvey, Gehrig, Jones, etc.

On the other hand, here's our B&F last year:

2015 best and fairest placings:
1st: 25 year old (Steven)
2nd: 26 year old (Armitage)
3rd: 31 year old (Dempster)
4th: 31 year old (Montagna)
5th: 26 year old (Geary)
6th: 23 year old (Roberton)
7th: 32 year old (Riewoldt)
8th: 22 year old (Bruce)
9th: 32 year old (Fisher)
10th: 21 year old (Webster)

Young (18-23): 2
Middle age (24-28): 3
Veteran (29+): 4

Not so good. Two veterans in the top four, four in the top ten. And only two young players, in 8th and 10th. Doesn't look like any of 02, 03, 04.

There are many ways to rebuild, sure. But in order to be confident we have anything like that same talent base, I'd want to see some kids finishing top ten and ideally top four in the B&F. Will that happen this year? My rough guess at the moment, ordered by age not placing, is:

33 year old (Riewoldt)
32 year old (Dempster)
29 year old (Gilbert)
27 year old (Geary)
26 year old (Steven)
25 year old (Hickey)
25 year old (Savage)
23 year old (Newnes)
22 year old (Ross)
21 year old (Membrey)

Young (18-23): 3
Middle age (24-28): 4
Veteran (29+): 3

(Yes, Weller could sneak in there, adding a 24 year old - equally though so could Joey.)

So that's definitely moving in the right direction, but still doesn't compare with 03/04. And none of the young players are going to finish in the top two (Steven+Riewoldt). Still doesn't feel like quite enough for me to be convinced there's a solid foundation of young talent coming through.

That doesn't mean I'm not excited about Billings, McCartin, and Gresham. I definitely think Lonie has what it takes. Dunstan I'm hoping will take another step. Goddard will get there eventually. Freeman could obviously be anything. Webster, Sinclair, Acres look like they should make solid players or better.

But they're not close to being there yet. If we play finals this year, a big part of that will be thanks to guys who are still very good but aging rapidly. How much can we possibly expect from them in 2017, 2018, 2019?

Bottom line:

This isn't 2003. We don't have a young Hayes and a very young Riewoldt with B&Fs already in hand, leading a super-young group containing Ball, Baker, Milne, Clarke, Dal Santo, etc. We don't have a middle like Gehrig, Hamill, Hudghton, Voss, Jones.

We're relying on our old players to get us over the line in big games, and they're getting older, and that's why we're at least another 18 months from a serious finals challenge. 2018 should remain the expectation.
 

Murraj1966

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Bit grim there.

I don't think anyone is expecting a flag next year but the original script was top 4 by 2018 and contending by 2020.

If we finish the season well and take a good mid again with our first pick we'll be looking pretty good for making that the reality. Especially with Carlisle coming back and the prospect of a good list enticing some GWS stars hopefully
 
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Rebuilding completely different in my eyes. We have a really good core group atm sprinkle it with a couple more A graders and our team will look completely different and not relying on 5-8 players week in week out like we used to.
Yep we have very good depth compared to last time but Roo is just a champion
 
I've always hoped for finals next year and push from there; the list is developing very nicely.

If McCartin plays at least half of the games next year reckon we will do well. There is a real spread of players that we have not had in the past along with an attacking game style.

Still have blokes like White, Rice, Freeman, Goddard and Carlisle in the wings

Other factor is who we bring in this off season; almost our most important in recent years as far as trading / recruiting goes. If we get some midfield polish look out.
 

VDS66

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2003 as far as results go and coming home with a wet sail.

However, much different this time around IMO.

Lists are coming from different spaces to be honest.

Back then, it started to click and we had a decent spread age wise.

This time we have had to repair a chasm between our oldest and our youngest.

We have done this by drafting as best as we can, and then adding young players who already had a few years in the system.. rather than just go all out for kids.

what I believe we are seeing is that mid age gap closing nicely with Newnes and co getting around the mid 20's. We will also see a lift in consistency from the likes of Dunstan, Billings and Acres next year as they continue to get another preseason under their belts.

If players such as Members, Weller, Hickey and those mentioned above continue to improve them we will see exponential improvement. Oh and don't forget Jake!
Unless something magical happens, I can't see next year being like 2004 because I think our list in terms of start power was much better, so our 2014 may not come until 2018. I hope I'm wrong because with Roo, Demps, Joey and Gears continuing their output, we could go deep next year.
 

VDS66

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I've always hoped for finals next year and push from there; the list is developing very nicely.

If McCartin plays at least half of the games next year reckon we will do well. There is a real spread of players that we have not had in the past along with an attacking game style.

Still have blokes like White, Rice, Freeman, Goddard and Carlisle in the wings

Other factor is who we bring in this off season; almost our most important in recent years as far as trading / recruiting goes. If we get some midfield polish look out.

This is the key my friend. If we happen to trade in a great mid, then look out. Could do for us what Paddy D has done fort he Cats.
 
This is the key my friend. If we happen to trade in a great mid, then look out. Could do for us what Paddy D has done fort he Cats.

Yep....this is why I spend time on this forum; discussions like this one.

We have salary cap space, are now a place players want to go to and the list is developing really well.

To be honest I am really looking forward to the trade / draft period - we do not need to cull our list just add to it. When we traded out McEvoy we were ridiculed but now our ruck stocks are strong and we have Dunstan and Savage (did we get Acres as part of that as well??) Have traded well recently although this is not recognized elsewhere (but who gives a s**t!)

If we can trade in a couple of class players watch out!
 

VDS66

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Yep....this is why I spend time on this forum; discussions like this one.

We have salary cap space, are now a place players want to go to and the list is developing really well.

To be honest I am really looking forward to the trade / draft period - we do not need to cull our list just add to it. When we traded out McEvoy we were ridiculed but now our ruck stocks are strong and we have Dunstan and Savage (did we get Acres as part of that as well??) Have traded well recently although this is not recognized elsewhere (but who gives a s**t!)

If we can trade in a couple of class players watch out!

Time to invoke the Spirit of 78! ;)
 

StKing11

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In 2003 we had 6 young top 10 picks on our list (Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Ball, Dal Santo, Goddard, X.Clarke), currently we have 3 (Billings, McCartin, Freeman) and they've been interrupted by injuries to varying degrees up to this point.

I think we have a lot of good young players but not many great ones just yet, a lot of them are in and out of the side and don't have the level of consistency yet to be considered some of the best players in our side. That will come with time, experience and confidence.

As others have said, we've got great depth in our young players and if we're able to add another 1-2 surefire A-graders then we are going to be a force.
 
We are having a pretty good year.
Thats about it.
Im not gonna over think it. Im just gonna enjoy it a lot more than the last few years:thumbsu:

We've gone from 4 wins, to 6 and 1/2 to 9+ this season. We are heading n the right direction it's clear to see. Next year, being in the middle band, our draw will be slightly more difficult, but we need to aim for the bottom of the eight.
 

BrianSpeaking

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We've had the softest draw in our history, we would want to have won the games we have, but who cares, a wins a win.

Free agency changes everything, expect us to shoot up the ladder for the next 6-8 years.
 

TassieSaint

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2003 list young talent wise was, on paper, definitely better than 2016 so far.

However, that doesn't mean we can't push into finals next year and top 4/premiership contention the year beyond (a year behind the millennial rebuild schedule). Will definitely still need some younger players stepping up if that's going to happen though.
 

bergholt

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2003 list young talent wise was, on paper, definitely better than 2016 so far.

However, that doesn't mean we can't push into finals next year and top 4/premiership contention the year beyond (a year behind the millennial rebuild schedule). Will definitely still need some younger players stepping up if that's going to happen though.

Based on this year, yes, we need to aim for finals next year. But I worry that the expected dropoff in the veterans will hurt us - partly because they'll get picked each week even if out of form - and we might actually go backwards a little. Hopefully Richo's got enough credits in the bank at that point to get through to 2018, which is the real make or break season for mine.
 
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As Brian said, free agency is the game changer when comparing to our last rebuild.

Wouldn't it have been nice to be able to attract a gun player to those 2004/5 or 2009/10 teams with no need for finding & then trading early picks.

Of course our salary cap was screwed back then thanks to GT's efforts to look after his boys.


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Sep 8, 2015
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Based on this year, yes, we need to aim for finals next year. But I worry that the expected dropoff in the veterans will hurt us - partly because they'll get picked each week even if out of form - and we might actually go backwards a little. Hopefully Richo's got enough credits in the bank at that point to get through to 2018, which is the real make or break season for mine.
Still 2016 but Montagna isn't vital only Roo and Dempster are important but we have managed without dempster before while Geary is 28.
Roo is the only hard loss to cover but not much we can do about it.
 
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As Brian said, free agency is the game changer when comparing to our last rebuild.

Wouldn't it have been nice to be able to attract a gun player to those 2004/5 or 2009/10 teams with no need for finding & then trading early picks.

Of course our salary cap was screwed back then thanks to GT's efforts to look after his boys.


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On the salary cap it was a huge effort to hold those young players when we were running 2nd rate facilities and there was little believe in the club thays why we didnt get Troy Simmons for Black
 

TassieSaint

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Based on this year, yes, we need to aim for finals next year. But I worry that the expected dropoff in the veterans will hurt us - partly because they'll get picked each week even if out of form - and we might actually go backwards a little. Hopefully Richo's got enough credits in the bank at that point to get through to 2018, which is the real make or break season for mine.
People have been saying that about us for ages but as yet we have been successful in phasing them out.

Riewoldt barely plays forward these days, we're sorted there. Carlisle coming in will help cover Fish/Dempster with Goddard hopefully stepping up. Joey plays his role well but I'm not sure we'd see a huge difference without him.

Not to mention all 4 could play on next year and bar injury realistically 2018 as well. Joey is Boomer-esque, Dempster appears to be some sort of cyborg, and Riewoldt is just an absolute champion who will only be slowed by a significant injury. Fish may struggle to get back but on exposed form still has it.
 
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On the salary cap it was a huge effort to hold those young players when we were running 2nd rate facilities and there was little believe in the club thays why we didnt get Troy Simmons for Black

Disagree with little belief in the club... We had the most exciting young list who were close mates.

We didn't get Simmonds purely because of money.


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Sainttony

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We've had a very weak draw this year and can't expect that in coming years. That will impact on next years .

We are better coached than in 03, 04. Richo has a finals winning type of game plan based around pressure .

We still have holes in our line up. Need a clearance mid, maybe another big defender.

Although we seem to be further behind than in 03 04 don't be surprised if we advance just as quickly. Prelim next year?
 
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