Opinion Is this where Carlton drops away?

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Mitchell, Gibson and Rioli all missed 8 or 10 games.

A number of other players missed a bunch of games at different times.

I dont think our draw saw us playing 8 or 10 easy games in a row.

No but Mitchell and Gibson for instance missed mostly against the poor sides.

Mitchell missed three games against top 8 sides. You snuck over the line against Essendon by 4 points where he was about your only injury. Hawthorn lost the other two games.
Gibson missed one game agains a top 8 side which you lost.
Cyril missed two games against a top 8 sides before most players were back from injury around rd ~17 and you lost both those games.

You pretty much had a horrible injury run where you lost to the good sides and beat the poor sides then got everyone back at the end of the season for the important stuff.

West Coast’s premiership was pretty amazing but also an outlier

 

[g_TRAIN]

Really enjoyed watching them this year and last night.

Hopefully they make it if not hopefully they take the growth this year and build on it next year.



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[My Tilly]

That was one of the most intense games of the year. Carlton needed more from Curnow and Weitering but as a collective, they could not have played any better. If they bring that same performance next week against Collingwood (get 3 or 4 goals from Curnow), it will be enough.

Melbourne got a terrific tune-up to what Brisbane will throw at them on Friday night so really, puts both teams in a good position to get the win.

 

[nineteen eighty]

That was one of the most intense games of the year. Carlton needed more from Curnow and Weitering but as a collective, they could not have played any better. If they bring that same performance next week against Collingwood (get 3 or 4 goals from Curnow), it will be enough.

Melbourne got a terrific tune-up to what Brisbane will throw at them on Friday night so really, puts both teams in a good position to get the win.

This isn't the thread for it but what are the chances of Melksham kicking 4 again this season? Without him, Blues win.

And this game reinforced for me the view that Ben Brown is their most important player. To win big games in September, he is key. He doesn't need to be kicking goals but he needs to be taking marks.

 

[My Tilly]

This isn't the thread for it but what are the chances of Melksham kicking 4 again this season? Without him, Blues win.

And this game reinforced for me the view that Ben Brown is their most important player. To win big games in September, he is key. He doesn't need to be kicking goals but he needs to be taking marks.

Brown is trash at the moment.
They are better taking a chance on Weideman because he has upside to his game whereas Brown's best is what we saw last year. Not even sure he recaptures that form.

 

[Juddernaut08]

At least you were brave last night Juddernaut08 La Dispute

Must be a strange feeling watching a team be in the 8 fir 22 rounds and on the verge of not playing finals.. Guess the premise of the thread is accurate that Carlton were always going to fall away..

Ok

 

[GC2015]

Carlton's task probably just got a whole lot tougher now that Collingwood have dropped to 5th and need to beat Carlton to finish inside the top 4. Melbourne and Brisbane play each other on Friday night so one of them is staying on 15 wins (or both are going to 15.5 wins) and Collingwood will overtake one of them with a 16th win of the season against Carlton. I'm very confident the Bulldogs will comfortably beat Hawthorn next week (particularly after the 61-point belting they suffered at the hands of Richmond today) and that means the Dogs will temporarily enter the top 8 around the midway point of the Collingwood-Carlton game.

So here we have it. Final round and final day of the home and away season. Collingwood need to win to finish top 4 and Carlton need to win to play finals. Can the Blues do it or will they fall agonisingly short of a place in the finals?

 

[Arr0w]

Look. still a very real possibility of Carlton making finals, but apparently winning finals is the main aim of playing / following AFL clubs, os so I am told

Well considering some sides haven't won a final in some time, you can only give yourself a chance by being there

But some sides just have poor 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players compared to other clubs. It's all about improving a list, while improving continuity so you remain competitive and not being blown out of the water

Predicted 11-13 wins, if we make finals it will be a great base, but if we don't, our list demographic is sound in terms of age to continue to improve

 

[nut]

Sure, and the double chance is great. But if we win today and lose next week we'll finish 3rd, playing either Melbourne or Brisbane at the Gabba (undesirable). If we win both we get top 2, securing both a double chance and a home qualifying final

Playing Melbourne is a home final regardless where you finish

 

[gouki88]

Playing Melbourne is a home final regardless where you finish

It's irrelevant now after Sydney beat us, but we had an equal chance of playing Brisbane in Brisbane

 

[gouki88]

We have to talk slowly to collingwood supporters remember

How classy. You cannot comprehend the fact that had we won against Sydney but lost against Carlton, we would have played one of Melbourne or Brisbane. It's really not that hard to *ing understand

 

[nut]

Couldn't agree more. Castagna is a 3 time premiership player. Enough said.

He’d have a norm smith in 19’ if he kicked straight ….. I mean if he could kick straight.

 

[nut]

How classy. You cannot comprehend the fact that had we won against Sydney but lost against Carlton, we would have played one of Melbourne or Brisbane. It's really not that hard to *ing understand

And half of those games would be a at the G

 

[gouki88]

And half of those games would be a at the G

I am not sure how much clearer I can spell this out for you.

Winning both games would have put us in 2nd, thus securing a 100% chance of playing the first final in Melbourne. Winning against Sydney but losing against Carlton would have left it a 50/50 for playing the first game in Melbourne or Brisbane. Losing against Sydney but beating Carlton guarantees a Melbourne game. Losing both guarantees a game in Melbourne, but at the cost of the double chance.

The point was that it was the best case to try and win both. It is really not that complicated for people with the ability to read.

 

[nut]

I am not sure how much clearer I can spell this out for you.

Winning both games would have put us in 2nd, thus securing a 100% chance of playing the first final in Melbourne. Winning against Sydney but losing against Carlton would have left it a 50/50 for playing the first game in Melbourne or Brisbane. Losing against Sydney but beating Carlton guarantees a Melbourne game. Losing both guarantees a game in Melbourne, but at the cost of the double chance.

The point was that it was the best case to try and win both. It is really not that complicated for people with the ability to read.

Yer but making top 4 losing to Brisbane in Brisbane gives you 2 Melbourne finals also ….

 

[gouki88]

Yer but making top 4 losing to Brisbane in Brisbane gives you 2 Melbourne finals also ….

A) no, it didn't.
B) it's impossible now anyway.

 

[bourbons]

Kudos to coach Voss in getting them up for the game. Personally I think that I’m fire they showed was temporary after the Cripps appeal and such a poor showing the two weeks previous.

To come with the same intent two weeks in a row would belie their current ladder position and season form.

I’m less confident of them doing this next week as I was for the Melb game.

But you never know, it would be a big development moment for them if they did.

I prostrate myself before the altar of your superior footy knowledge mate

Not sure where that effort came from after the last month of form.

But yeah tend to agree re: the next one. Thought the Pies would be the winnable game out of the 2 but can see them blowing us out now, feels like we may have played our GF staurday night. Just such a heart breaking loss, will be tough to get up and bring that kinda effort again. Pies also dropping one does us no favours either, they were due and its happened this round instead of next

 

[nineteen eighty]

He’d have a norm smith in 19’ if he kicked straight ….. I mean if he could kick straight.

He has been a fantastic role player. A great Richmond man who did all he could with his skills. And he's been handsomely rewarded. But let's not kid ourselves, he could be playing A grade ammos and no-one would bat an eye lid.

Regardless, thanks George for the fantastic memories. You played your role beautifully in 3 flag years.

Back to the topic at hand...

 

[dean33]

Hawks in 2014 were smashed by injuries and even lost the coach for 5 games.

The fact we batted so deep is why we did well.

Yes but you are comparing a dynasty

I prostrate myself before the altar of your superior footy knowledge mate

Not sure where that effort came from after the last month of form.

But yeah tend to agree re: the next one. Thought the Pies would be the winnable game out of the 2 but can see them blowing us out now, feels like we may have played our GF staurday night. Just such a heart breaking loss, will be tough to get up and bring that kinda effort again. Pies also dropping one does us no favours either, they were due and its happened this round instead of next

loss for the pies was the best thing for you to beat them this week, they realise they aren’t invincible now. You’ll beat them this week and then the tigers will knock them out 2 weeks later.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Carlton are in with a good shot against Collingwood and most on the Dogs board know we haven’t been that great, so if they win good luck to them.

I honestly don’t read much into the game against Melbourne though. Melbourne have won 5 of their last 11 and aren’t any where near their best. At the moment they’re probably reasonably matched.

 

[bourbons]

Yes but you are comparing a dynasty

loss for the pies was the best thing for you to beat them this week, they realise they aren’t invincible now. You’ll beat them this week and then the tigers will knock them out 2 weeks later.

Yeah not so sure about that. I see it more as a pressure release for them with the streak now being over and the loss they were most certainly due for.

Add the emotional gut punch we copped on saturday night not winning that game and Sunday just got much tougher for us all things considered I reckon.

 

[Rich01]

I prostrate myself before the altar of your superior footy knowledge mate

Not sure where that effort came from after the last month of form.

But yeah tend to agree re: the next one. Thought the Pies would be the winnable game out of the 2 but can see them blowing us out now, feels like we may have played our GF staurday night. Just such a heart breaking loss, will be tough to get up and bring that kinda effort again. Pies also dropping one does us no favours either, they were due and its happened this round instead of next

They will be down after that loss but Voss will be doing his best to keep his charges positive.

It’s going to be a great game.

Both sides with everything to play for. I’m no fan of Ginnavin but he would have been a tricky matchup for your defence so that’s a big out for them. Elliot will be the big matchup for Voss to cover now, but I bet he’s glad it’s just the one danger small down there.

Will be interesting to see where they play JDG if he gets up. For me he’s more dangerous up forward but with Johnson in the side they might have too many mid-forwards. Not sure of his injury status for this week though.

With Adam’s and also Grundy out, they are ripe for the picking. Cerra looks like he comes back in and Setterfield should hold his spot in the middle so perhaps there’s an outside runner that needs to make way for him.

Keeping the ball locked in the forward line will be key for the Blues so I see Motlop and Owies playing massive roles here if they are to get over the line (and that might not necessarily translate into them kicking many themselves).

Will be great viewing and if your mob get up I’d expect them to go into the finals on a wave of confidence, which all successful finals teams need to have.

 

[evo]

Brown is trash at the moment.
They are better taking a chance on Weideman because he has upside to his game whereas Brown's best is what we saw last year. Not even sure he recaptures that form.

Brown has looked good at times this season. Why don't Melbourne play Brown AND Weid?

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I still don't rate Voss yet.

The list has the top end talent. But the defense structure is fairly average, teams like Port, Hawthorn and Adelaide have got a run on against them when the momentum has switched.

Perhaps a pass for 2022 as he hasn't had much time, would expect great improvement in 2023. Also need to have a 1 out 1 in game style where the odd injury doesn't ruin defensive structures at stoppages or in d50.

We've been one of the hardest teams to score against this year, and last week against the Lions was the 1st time a team has scored 100+ points against us.
As the injuries have stacked up over the season and the fringe players, who are taking more of the burden than expected, are starting to tire, there's some old habits creeping back in.

If anything, it's probably been our forward line spluttering a bit in past weeks that's been the biggest problem, but that's probably largely due to midfield changes with more injuries rearing their head. Pitto coming back and TDK getting dropped has made the ruck combos different the past 3-4 weeks. Lost Kennedy, Hewett and Cerra from the starting mids.

We were looking like getting Hewett, Kennedy, Williams and Newman back for the last round. Now it looks like Williams will be the only one available, although his fitness will be questionable after being out for a while, and a new question mark over Cerra.

 

[My Tilly]

Brown has looked good at times this season. Why don't Melbourne play Brown AND Weid?

Too top heavy with Jackson spending minutes down there?
Not sure but Weideman looked a class above in poor conditions on the weekend for Casey. They may have to bite the bullet and entrust he can deliver.