Toast It's the finals countdown - 2021
- Thread starter RUNVS
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Welcome to the finals everyone! But still a long way to go and we are gonna try our hardest to push for top 4.
Top 4 gives you a second chance if you lose that first game. If you do, you play 4 games, same as finishing 5th.
Finish 3rd or 4th and most likely play Dogs or Cats on home deck (Vic anyway). Going to have to beat at least one of them to WIN it all. But a tough assignment first up for the kids.
Finish 5th and play someone who limps into the 8, hopefully Eagles or Freo, also in Vic (Sydney still in lockdown). Only Bombers a worry there.
Might be a better tuneup.
Then the next game is against a loser coming off a tougher game. Probably Melbourne or Port. We can definitely beat either of them.
Then the prelim.
Game on.
There’s no way finishing 5th is better, history shows that.
We are a shot if we can get top 4 but will be too hard to win 4 straight from 5th given how even the competition is imo
Just pointing out that THIS YEAR there may be less difference than historically given the makeup of the 8.
Finish 3/4, win and go straight to the prelim with a week off is the bees knees.
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- Jan 11, 2003
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This season feels more like 2010, returning to the finals after an absence...
- Mar 11, 2012
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I agree there are similarities to that season in some respects, but I think the competition is also very different. That year, St. Kilda, Geelong and Collingwood were miles ahead of the rest of the competition.
Our results against them that year were as follows:
Round 1 - Lost to the Saints by 8
Round 7 - Lost to the Cats by 67
Round 8 - Lost to the Dogs (the 4th best team) by 38
Round 13 - Lost to the Pies by 25
Round 18 - Lost to the Cats by 53
Round 21 - Beat the Dogs by 44 points (our only win against a top 4 team that year)
So that's 1/6 against the top four, and a fair few beltings.
Compare that to this year against the top four teams, where we beat the Bulldogs and the Cats, and had narrow losses to Melbourne and Port away from home. 50% record, and competitive in all games. Add to that, we beat the teams in 6th, 7th and 8th comfortably across the season - and I think it shows we're positioned much better relatively within the competition than we were in 2010.
I think we'll make the top 4... yes, we need to win 3 straight games to win the premiership... But gives us the double chance... And exposure to finals pressure without it being an elimination game...
Top 4 is a must given our circumstances.
Top 4 is a must given our circumstances.
- Nov 11, 2012
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Can win it this year from outside the 4 imo
We are ever chance away from the scg
Think the clearances and contested ball will finish us in 2021
Rectify over summer
We are ever chance away from the scg
Think the clearances and contested ball will finish us in 2021
Rectify over summer
We go as far as JPK/Parker form holds up.
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- Sep 25, 2019
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When in finals Tigers evened up the clearances.
On The Couch showed scores when we win and lose contested possessions. If we can bring up the pressure during finals and break even in that stat we win.
- Sep 25, 2012
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I've got us 4th. Think we win out, Port will lose to the Dogs. I can even see a desperate WC beating Dees this week, and Dees losing to Geelong in Round 23 to hand us 3rd. But I reckon I'd almost prefer to play Geelong in Geelong. However, I heard on TV on the weekend Geelong will play week 1 at the MCG.
Finish 4th: Week 1 v Geelong/Dogs at MCG/GMHBA/Marvel
Finish 3rd: Week 1 v Geelong/Dogs at MCG/GMHBA/Marvel
Finish 5th: Week 1 v Richmond/Freo/West Coast/Essendon/GWS at GMHBA
If we finish 5th, coming up against the loser of 1 v 4 is a bit worrying. I would hope thats Geelong rather then a trip to play Port.
The final 3 rounds are massive. So many games that have implications on ladder positions.
Finish 4th: Week 1 v Geelong/Dogs at MCG/GMHBA/Marvel
Finish 3rd: Week 1 v Geelong/Dogs at MCG/GMHBA/Marvel
Finish 5th: Week 1 v Richmond/Freo/West Coast/Essendon/GWS at GMHBA
If we finish 5th, coming up against the loser of 1 v 4 is a bit worrying. I would hope thats Geelong rather then a trip to play Port.
The final 3 rounds are massive. So many games that have implications on ladder positions.
- Jun 27, 2010
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Yep, the way we're playing and the spirit in the group is 'something special' like the pundits keep saying. On our form in the last half of the season we're a top four team.
That's what the stats say, too.
Hoyne said 13 of the past 14 premiers rated in the top three for points differential from turnovers and the Swans currently rank third in that stat behind Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.
But another stat stands out even more — Sydney ranks No.1 for ball movement and No.2 for restricting opposition ball movement — “unbelievable” numbers.
We still need to win our last 3 games which is no gimme.
GotTheGoodes
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All I know is that this time last year I honestly could not, hand on heart, say I'd think we'd be playing the kind of footy we've been playing this year.
The group has a special feel about it. I find it kind of hard to explain... A kind of camaraderie that I recall in those 2005 & 2012 teams. With spots up for grabs... young & old... superstars & role players alike, all being vital to our success. Like a puzzle we've figured out & put together at just the right time with just the right combination of pieces.
It just feels special to me.
Despite how we go from here, the boys have given me one hell of a year so far... But I can't wait to see what kind of damage we can do the next month or so. I reckon we're all in for a ride.
UP THE BLOODS.
The group has a special feel about it. I find it kind of hard to explain... A kind of camaraderie that I recall in those 2005 & 2012 teams. With spots up for grabs... young & old... superstars & role players alike, all being vital to our success. Like a puzzle we've figured out & put together at just the right time with just the right combination of pieces.
It just feels special to me.
Despite how we go from here, the boys have given me one hell of a year so far... But I can't wait to see what kind of damage we can do the next month or so. I reckon we're all in for a ride.
UP THE BLOODS.
I agree, there's something special about the team this year.
The low injury numbers, hickey the recruit of the year on his 4th club, the young guys coming into the team and having an immediate impact, the experienced players being absolute rocks, the defence gelling after a shaky first few rounds, mills slotting straight into the mids, Hayward and blakey being sent back to the reserves and coming back in and taking the opportunity, the pressure we apply to opposition, the way we move as a cohesive unit around the ground, the sublime ball movement when we get a chain through the corridor, the way we keep winning games under a variety of different circumstances, our forward line being the most potent it's ever been, with paps, heeney and Hayward consistently scoring, and the fact that buddy is now the icing and not the cake!
Ps can't wait to see gulden in the finals. I think the kid is going to lift a gear.
- Oct 10, 2012
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Coming to this thread late.
to save me some time, our chances at top 4 are basically down to us winning next 3 and Port losing to Doggies??
What’s the % difference in actual points like 75?
to save me some time, our chances at top 4 are basically down to us winning next 3 and Port losing to Doggies??
What’s the % difference in actual points like 75?
- Sep 25, 2012
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Yeah. Basically. The small % difference should make itself up with the teams we have to play.
Live ladders currently says for this week Adelaide need to score 44 and we need to score 56. And Adelaide win. So swap out Adelaide with Dogs for the same number. Those numbers obviously change as the opponents score as well.
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The four areas championship data says we need to be in the top for a premiership:
-Points differential from turnovers (4th)
-Ball movement (1st)
-Restriction of opponents ball movement (2nd)
-Contested possession (5th)
Pretty much in the hunt for the premiership.
-Points differential from turnovers (4th)
-Ball movement (1st)
-Restriction of opponents ball movement (2nd)
-Contested possession (5th)
Pretty much in the hunt for the premiership.
Slight vested interest because I live in Adelaide, but I'd rather play Port than Cats in an away final. They're more prone to off games if the oppo brings the heat. I was at the Eagles final a few years back (barracking for Port), so they're susceptible. They had plenty of chances to take out Richmond last year but couldn't. Question marks over Hinkley's big game performances as a coach.
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True but we can lose anywhere too... still been a fantastic season though.
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