It's Time

[CaptainDangerfield]

At the start of 2008, our team's average age was 24.37. Assuming the players named are all replaced by players averaging 18 years of age, that figure will drop to 22.0 on 1/1/2009. We will have a VERY young list indeed.

Not much point having one of the youngest lists in the competition if it's also the least experienced. I mentioned in another thread that we need to look at rotating the likes of Bassett/Shirley/Massie/Stevens/Doughty (not all at once ) with a few of the kids between the SANFL and AFL.

Getting gametime into the players I mentioned above is going to have zero benefit/impact on our next premiership run. Getting gametime into a few of the kids will.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

I didn't think that was your question, rather who would be better that Craig.

Do you really think Collingwood has a top 4 list..........not even close.

Why do you think Collingwood always perform in the big games, like showdowns , because Mick gets rid of players who can't handle pressure.

Why have Adelaide struggled in Big games????????

There is your answer!

So Malthouse is a better coach than NC, he's also better than every other coach in the game. What's the relevance to us?

 

[Vader]

Not much point having one of the youngest lists in the competition if it's also the least experienced. I mentioned in another thread that we need to look at rotating the likes of Bassett/Shirley/Massie/Stevens/Doughty (not all at once ) with a few of the kids between the SANFL and AFL.

Getting gametime into the players I mentioned above is going to have zero benefit/impact on our next premiership run. Getting gametime into a few of the kids will.

We would be in complete agreement on this. We're going to have one of the youngest & least experienced teams going around in 2009. This is unavoidable, the inevitable result of Ayres' years of list vandalism. We need to get as many games as we can into our kids in 2008, to minimise the impact of having to introduce them en masse in 2009.

Doughty has been outstanding this year and doesn't deserve a holiday - even if it's just a rotation.

I would be happy to see Bassett & Kite play 3 games each, with Massie & Petrenko also splitting games. Jericho out for Mackay, permanently. Maybe Otten & Stevens swapping? With Moran already in the team it's harder to find a replacement for Stevens.

The trick is to find a good balance. None of us want to see the club deliberately throwing games away. However, we also need to have 1 1/2 eyes fixed on the future - 2008 is gone, 2009 & beyond need to be looked at. Increasing the mix of youngsters, whilst not critically weakening our team, will require a delicate balancing act.

 

[KUNG FU]

Vader, I think your point only proves that we will not be delisting 8-9 players this year. Thats ludicrous.

So you're saying we will win a flag within the next 5-6 years?

We'll be around the mark, most definitely after a couple years of punishment.

 

[Vince Van Mackay]

What do you mean by saying he wasn't a dud? What did he ever to for the AFC?

Umm gee I don't know, perhaps I mean he wasn't a dud?

As in, he was not a dud.

He had a alot of talent, duds are ones with no talent, as in they are duds. He might of made poor choices, but he was not and still isn't a dud.

 

[Vader]

Vader, I think your point only proves that we will not be delisting 8-9 players this year. Thats ludicrous.

It's the crash which has been coming for quite a few years now. I've always thought that people predicting us to be flag favourites in 2010 were optimistic. Finals in 2011 and an outside chance for the flag in 2012 is the way I see it.

Ironically, I'd rather see us delisting the 8-9 players and getting on with it. Sure, it will cause us some inevitable pain in 2009-2011. That's going to happen whether the delistings are spread over 1 year or 2. Better to just get it over with and to grow the new group together, particularly when 2008 is a strong draft and 2009 is particularly weak. What is to be gained by putting off the inevitable?

Assuming we make the cuts I have suggested we will still have a solid core of hardened bodies - (2 of) Goodwin, Edwards, Macca, Shirley, Doughty, Rutten, Bock, Johncock & co. They will just be surrounded by a much larger cadre of inexperienced youngsters.

In my mind it is almost inconceivable that the club will delist fewer than 7 players this year. I doubt they will cut to quite the depths they did last year (10 players gone from the senior list), but they won't be too far off it.

 

[James23]

we couldnt have picked a worse period in our history to bottom out

 

[Alex99]

we couldnt have picked a worse period in our history to bottom out

why?

We could have bottomed out in 18 months time when the CG17 and WS18 are stealing all the good young draft picks. At least now we can still grab a few in this year draft and not lose that much.

 

[Vader]

we couldnt have picked a worse period in our history to bottom out

We're going to be at the bottom during those bad draft years. However, we'll have recruited the bulk of our future team during the brighter years immediately preceding them (2007 & 2008). Those dark years will be spent giving the kids experience, not trolling for draft picks.

If we do the cull this year, then our list of "to be culled" in 2009 is considerably shorter - McLeod, Edwards & Goodwin (whoever survives this year), Shirley, Doughty, Gill (if not gone this year), plus those of our youngsters who are deemed not to have come up to scratch.

In 2009 we're looking at 5-6 delistings/retirements, with (hopefully) 2-3 rookie upgrades, making for only 3-5 new draftees.

The 2009 draft is 2/3 strength because of the change in age eligibility. The top end talent will still be there, but not the depth. The 2010 & 2011 drafts are the ones where the top end talent is all heading north. They're the ones you really want to be avoiding unless you trade for some of the GC/WS picks.

2010 requires a whole new crystal ball.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

The trick is to find a good balance. None of us want to see the club deliberately throwing games away. However, we also need to have 1 1/2 eyes fixed on the future - 2008 is gone, 2009 & beyond need to be looked at. Increasing the mix of youngsters, whilst not critically weakening our team, will require a delicate balancing act.

I think we will find out in the next 6 weeks where Craigies priorities lie - his coaching win/loss ratio or building our next premiership side.

 

[Caramelas13]

Umm gee I don't know, perhaps I mean he wasn't a dud?

As in, he was not a dud.

He had a alot of talent, duds are ones with no talent, as in they are duds. He might of made poor choices, but he was not and still isn't a dud.

Well i only wished i saw some of that talent.

 

[jo172]

I think we will find out in the next 6 weeks where Craigies priorities lie - his coaching win/loss ratio or building our next premiership side.

So to make you happy he should deliberately lose games?

Honestly, if we had gotten over the line yesterday there would be 10 topics on this board that wouldn't exist.

We have a reputation for being incredibly fickle, but the suggestion that in 5 weeks we went from potential grand finallists to bottoming out is plainly stupid.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

The 2009 draft is 2/3 strength because of the change in age eligibility. The top end talent will still be there, but not the depth. The 2010 & 2011 drafts are the ones where the top end talent is all heading north. They're the ones you really want to be avoiding unless you trade for some of the GC/WS picks.

2010 requires a whole new crystal ball.

What change is that Vader? I thought the 2009 draft is when the top picks kick in for the new QLD side?

It's going to be interesting times between 2009-2011. I'm betting alot of top tier talent will be available for free in the pre-season draft. For the 16 existing sides, the pre-season draft maybe nearly as important as the main draft for recruiting quality talent for nothing. It could get ugly.

 

[Caramelas13]

So to make you happy he should deliberately lose games?

Honestly, if we had gotten over the line yesterday there would be 10 topics on this board that wouldn't exist.

We have a reputation for being incredibly fickle, but the suggestion that in 5 weeks we went from potential grand finallists to bottoming out is plainly stupid.

No one is saying to go out and deliberately lose games. I think a lot of our supporters have realized that we need to develop our list for our next premiership tilt. While our season has been okay, we have only played in spurts here and there. We don't play 4 qtrs of football let alone 2 or 3.

 

[Vader]

What change is that Vader? I thought the 2009 draft is when the top picks kick in for the new QLD side?

It's going to be interesting times between 2009-2011. I'm betting alot of top tier talent will be available for free in the pre-season draft. For the 16 existing sides, the pre-season draft maybe nearly as important as the main draft for recruiting quality talent for nothing. It could get ugly.

In 2008, players are eligible for the draft if they were born on or before April 30th 1991. In 2009 they will only be eligible if they were born on or before December 31st 1991.

This is to eliminate the Dangerfield/Watts scenario, where the youngster decides to stay home and finish year 12 rather than starting their AFL career straight away. The idea is that players will be 18 before the start of their first year on an AFL list, rather than the current situation where some are 18 and some are only 17. This should eliminate year 11 students from the draft.

Effectively, next year is an 8-month crop of youngsters rather than a full 12 month crop. Only players who were born in the window from 1st May to 31st December will be "new" players, everyone else having previously been eligible for the 2008 ND.

In 2009 the Gold Coast will be able to pick the eyes out of the Queenslanders, if they can convince them to sign on the bottom line. Big "if", considering that the best these players could hope for would be to play in the VFL, without an AFL team to play for until 2011. Then again, if Queensland's 2009 crop is anywhere near as bad as 2008 (and 2007) then that won't be much concern to anybody.

In 2010 the GC get to pick the eyes out of the entire draft (not just the Queensland boys). In 2011 WS get to do likewise.

Also, it is quite possible that the pre-season draft may not even exist in 2009 and beyond. The AFL changed the delisting rules, effective this year. Players who have not re-signed with their clubs are now eligible for the National Draft, without having to wait to be formally delisted after the ND has been held. The PSD originally existed as a means for players to leave a club if they no longer wish to play there, it no longer has a reason to exist. The AFL will persevere with it in 2008, but it may not even be held in the future.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

So to make you happy he should deliberately lose games?

Honestly, if we had gotten over the line yesterday there would be 10 topics on this board that wouldn't exist.

We have a reputation for being incredibly fickle, but the suggestion that in 5 weeks we went from potential grand finallists to bottoming out is plainly stupid.

I never predicted we would be a GF chance. In fact, I thought alot would have to go right for us to make the 8 given the age and stage of development of our list.

No I don't think he should lose games but if he plays ALL OF THE 2nd/3rd tier players I mentioned ahead of the youngsters for the remainder of the year than what has that proven?? We finish between 7th to 10th and youngsters like Petrenko, Otten etc still are yet to have a decent crack at it.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

In 2008, players are eligible for the draft if they were born on or before April 30th 1991. In 2009 they will only be eligible if they were born on or before December 31st 2009.

This is to eliminate the Dangerfield/Watts scenario, where the youngster decides to stay home and finish year 12 rather than starting their AFL career straight away. The idea is that players will be 18 before the start of their first year on an AFL list, rather than the current situation where some are 18 and some are only 17. This should eliminate year 11 students from the draft.

Effectively, next year is an 8-month crop of youngsters rather than a full 12 month crop. Only players who were born in the window from 1st May to 31st December will be "new" players, everyone else having previously been eligible for the 2008 ND.

In 2009 the Gold Coast will be able to pick the eyes out of the Queenslanders, if they can convince them to sign on the bottom line. Big "if", considering that the best these players could hope for would be to play in the VFL, without an AFL team to play for until 2011. Then again, if Queensland's 2009 crop is anywhere near as bad as 2008 (and 2007) then that won't be much concern to anybody.

In 2010 the GC get to pick the eyes out of the entire draft (not just the Queensland boys). In 2011 WS get to do likewise.

Also, it is quite possible that the pre-season draft may not even exist in 2009 and beyond. The AFL changed the delisting rules, effective this year. Players who have not re-signed with their clubs are now eligible for the National Draft, without having to wait to be formally delisted after the ND has been held. The PSD originally existed as a means for players to leave a club if they no longer wish to play there, it no longer has a reason to exist. The AFL will persevere with it in 2008, but it may not even be held in the future.

Thanks vader. I like the sounds of the change to the pre-season draft. It seems a much fairer system.

 

[macca23]

In 2008, players are eligible for the draft if they were born on or before April 30th 1991. In 2009 they will only be eligible if they were born on or before December 31st 2009.

So we're down to drafting babies now, Vader???

 

[StuPendus]

Look, i'm not sure who is the next coach to guide us to our 3rd premiership. To be honest we should be fighting for a top 4 spot. The competition is very even apart from Geelong. There is no reason why we can't be up with the best. I just have my doubts with NC. We had the best team in the competition in 05 & 06 and we couldn't reach a GF. Alot of media experts in Melbourne still cannot believe we didn't playoff in a GF in those 2 years. I just feel he is too negative and goes into a defensive shell too often in the big games. I also think his style of play is too methodical and too precise at times. Now with 6 rounds to go, i'd like to see the likes of Walker, Kite, Otten, Dangerfield & Mackay get given some game time. Finals shoudn't be our number 1 goal at the moment. Round 1 2009 should be the aim and we should be managing our playing list towards that.

Are you for real? We were never going to be in the position to have a crack at the top 4. We do not have the side for it. Before the year most had us between between 6 and 12. Our earlier results have completely flattered our position as to where we really are in the pecking order.

We are still playing kids, one that has played only 50 games of Aussie Rules so just get off your high horse about having a shot at the top 4.

On another note, I guess you don't read a lot about some of our recruits like Dangerfield. He will not be playing this year due to his schooling.

 

[jenny61_99]

So we're down to drafting babies now, Vader???

Well everybody is screaming for us to play the kids afterall!

 

[Vader]

So we're down to drafting babies now, Vader???

Spotted that one when it appeared in SpringChoke's quote. Fixed already.

 

[Drummond]

Neil Craig is the best man for the job. By a country mile. Name me another available coach out there at the moment who could do better with the list we have? So many people say we blew our chances in 2005/2006 but in all honesty, we should NEVER have been competitive in either of those years. It was through the sheer brilliance of Craig that saw us play well above our capabilities. This has been said MANY times before... Craig is suffering as a result of his own early success. People expect him to perform miracles with a club that has been in the re-modelling phase for the last three years. He certainly is not perfect and makes mistakes... like ALL coaches. The Hawthorns/Geelongs and Western Bulldogs have all had periods of poor performance, allowing them to rebuild their lists. But their lists haven't become successful over night - it has taken years. We are seeing the fruits of this now. To expect Craig to take us to a flag with the list he inherited in less that three years is ridiculous. Let him develop his list. Let him do it HIS way. Of course we'd all love to see the youngsters played NOW, but that's not how he does it. He always brings them in slowly, trying to develop every aspect of their game BEFORE they enter at the top level. There has been some exceptions of that (Tippett and Jacky) and neither of them have been roaring successes. But when you see Douglas/Knights etc slowly introduced at this level and now see them performing at a much higher level, you can see that his methods have many merits.

Look here jenny, if we have been in remodeling mode for three years as you said, then why haven’t we moved forward on field? In fact, we’re going backwards. We’re on the worst losing streak for about 5 years and we still refuse to play the youngsters and if we do actually play them, we show no faith in them. Let him develop his list you say, let him do it HIS way? Well that’s what’s been happening for over 4 years now, and especially over the past 18 months when we have really entered rebuilding mode. And what steps has he taken to help us move forward? Barely any. You keep hearing names like Knights, van Berlo and Douglas thrown up as examples of Craig weaving his magic. The former two are in their 4th year in the AFL and the latter is in his third, of course you expect them to be playing and performing. No magic there, just natural progression.

His game plan has been exposed; we are far too defensive and have few, if any, players that are attacking, risk takers who can do the unpredictable. He is developing a side that is rigid and is seemingly unable to play with any flair and attacking nature. We are unbelievably boring to watch. Sure you don’t need to be exciting to win the premiership, just look at the Swans from a few years back, but I cannot imagine the players having too much fun playing in a side that is lifeless and has to do everything perfectly and cannot step out of the square. Walker plays with flair and such great enthusiasm and he always gets the crowd pumped after a goal. He’s already a fan favourite at Norwood and he responds to the crowd. I’m fearful of what will happen when he eventually makes it to the AFL. I can’t imagine Craig wanting a guy who likes to passionately celebrate a goal because it’s not what this club stands for. Everything has to be by the book and nothing can be out of the ordinary.

We want to see the youngsters played because they are the future. What happened to his lecture on not placing limitations on the youngsters and how if their form dictates selection then he won’t hesitate in playing them? Was that a lie? Walker, Otten and Petrenko are three that more than deserve a chance and yet Petrenko can’t even get upgraded, Otten played and got 25 minutes, and Walker has already been ruled out despite kicking 13 goals in 3 weeks. He ruled him out a week after harping on about how he wouldn’t be afraid to play him. Another lie, he IS afraid. He is scared of playing the youngsters. He’d prefer to make the 8 and save face than to roll the dice on a few youngsters and potentially miss out on the finals. I know what I’d rather, long term success any day over a bit of short term success, in this case making up the numbers in the finals.

Why is he trying to develop every aspect of their game before they enter at the top level? You’re only going to take the next step by playing at the NEXT LEVEL! Look at Chris Knights for he is the perfect example. Dominated in the SANFL in 2005, played 10 or so AFL games in 2006 and struggled but absolutely tore it up in the SANFL. His kicking was still a concern and he was missing targets too regularly. But enough was enough, there was nothing left for him to learn in the local comp so he played every game he was available in 2007 for Adelaide and as a result he was much improved and we saw what he was capable of. He only got to the next level because he played at the highest level, pretty simple. Craig leaves players for FAR too long in the SANFL when he should be blooding them with the Crows and letting them learn and gain experience.

We cleaned up in the draft last year and yet he's still afraid to give a few of them a shot because he still has his eye on finals. Making the finals is great, it should always be the goal, but he has once again taken his eye off the prize at the end of the tunnel, a premiership. We are far too short sighted, look at last year; we fought an uphill battle all year to make the 8, gallantly got there and for what? To be knocked out in the first week and be in no better position than half the teams that missed out on the 8? We are far, far too conservative in everything we do.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

we couldnt have picked a worse period in our history to bottom out

We haven't bottomed out yet. Next two years we will be worse.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Awww gee your negative Drummond. How dare you criticise the Coach.

Bl**dy spot on. As I said above, we will get a truer indication of where Craigies priorities lie over the next 6 weeks - building a future premiership side or maintaining his coaching win/loss ratio.

 

[Cap]

I agree the youngster our the future but what about the present ?