Scape Goat I've lost my faith in Ken Hinkley Part 3

RossFC

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This meeting-to-next meeting 100+ point winning margin to defeat switcharoo would have to be some sort of record too:

• 2014 - defeats Brisbane by 113
• 2014 - defeats Carlton by 103
• 2015 - loses to Brisbane by 37
• 2015 - loses to Carlton by 4

I’m sure many teams would have lost once on the turnaround, but to do the double twice?
Was curious about this and just googled Melbournes results because they'd been smashed heaps. Can only find 2 turnarounds that involve Melbourne, bad and good.

2004 - Melboune beat Carlton by 105.
Later in 2004 - Carlton beat Melbourne by 31.

2013 - Essendon beat Melbourne by 148.
2014 - Melbourne beat Essendon by 1.
 
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Adz2332

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If youse talk about dropping Ryder too much, Hinkley might get excited and see the opportunity to drop him for Johnson.
hahah... if that happens ill pack hinkelys bag myself and drive him to carlton where he can play all the midget forward line he likes
 

AwwThatsApples

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Coached a team that didn't trail for one solitary second between the siren to sound Q1 and the siren to end Q4 but still managed to lose the game (West Coast at AO, 2018).
Right, even though we were missing three interchanges including our key Ruckman and forward
 

Janus

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Does anyone seriously think we’re a paddy Ryder away from winning the 2020 premiership?

As for better player

Ladhams has caught up at a crazy rate, and Ryder is going backwards

You could almost make the argument that even though Ryder is the better ruck that we would be better served by the better forward in Frampton who can also ruck.

If you’re judging Ryder on his 2019 form, and trying to imagine the form of Ryder and ladhams Frampton and Hayes 1 year from now I think calling Ryder the better player is naive.
Cool. Then there's nothing stopping Ladhams, Frampton and Hayes from beating Ryder out for a spot, is there?
 

tribey

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Was curious about this and just googled Melbournes results because they'd be smashed heaps. Can only find 2 turnarounds that involve Melbourne, bad and good.

2004 - Melboune beat Carlton by 105.
Later in 2004 - Carlton beat Melbourne by 31.

2013 - Essendon beat Melbourne by 148.
2014 - Melbourne beat Essendon by 1.
Closest I can find to a Hinkley-double after a brief glance at AFL Tables is Leigh Matthews,

2004: defeated Adelaide by 141
2004: defeated NM by 113
2005: defeated Adelaide by 9*
2005: lost to NM by 19

*They lost the inside-50 count by 18 and had six less scoring shots
 

philthy05

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Cool. Then there's nothing stopping Ladhams, Frampton and Hayes from beating Ryder out for a spot, is there?
Hinkley prefers incumbents

Hinkley traditionally is slow to reward bigs and quick to drop them

Hinkley will be under even more pressure to win games next year and that usually means less risk taking with blooding talls and more relying on older players

At some point Rucks need to play ruck to develop. Not full forward , forward pocket or watching from the pine.
 

philthy05

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Didn't stop Houston, Byrne-Jones, Howard, Powell-Pepper, Lienert and Farrell.

If you're good enough, you stay in the team. If you're not, you get replaced.
Pretending the small tall Hinkley bias doesn’t exist and ignoring that Hinkley might pick dozens of smalls but there’s only so many ruck spots
 

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SimonSpeilberg

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Didn't stop Houston, Byrne-Jones, Howard, Powell-Pepper, Lienert and Farrell.

If you're good enough, you stay in the team. If you're not, you get replaced.
You need to play consistently bad footy to keep being selected. If you dare play a good game and then an average game, you’re out! Don’t get me started if you have played under 50 games.
 

Kiss from a Rozee

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Yeah nah. It’ll be because he’s contracted more like.

So old Ken’s going to give us a shot a premiership, is he?

And Ladhams or Hayes instead of Ryder precludes premierships, right?

Nothing but lols
I don’t think that Ken stays here unless we have a great second half of 2019. I honestly think it’s incredibly likely he is gone a month from now at this point.

And no Ladhams or Hayes doesn’t preclude premierships, but considering that Ryder has been the best ruckman in the country in the past I’d say he could be important to any tilt he is around for.

Do I think we can still win the premiership in 2019 or 2020 if we continue in the current direction? Yes. Do I think Ken is an amazing coach? No, I don’t really care whether he is or not. One coach or player hardly matters in the scheme of a whole club, so yes neither would Ryder really.

If we sack him and promote a Longmuire or Chris Scott it could be the edge we need, if we sack him and bring in a Malthouse and they clean out good players and staff we could be a basket case for years. I’d rather see Koch gone before Ken because at least Ken isn’t going to sack himself to save his job and appoint someone worse.

If we are still **** in a month I’ll take the chance of a Malthouse though. Because if we aren’t good enough with Dixon, Wines, Gray, Hartlett and Jonas back and in form (EDIT: just to clarify by “in form” I mean back for more than a week to adjust, not that if they aren’t playing well its an excuse) I’d hold more than just Ken accountable.
 

philthy05

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I don’t think that Ken stays here unless we have a great second half of 2019. I honestly think it’s incredibly likely he is gone a month from now at this point.

And no Ladhams or Hayes doesn’t preclude premierships, but considering that Ryder has been the best ruckman in the country in the past I’d say he could be important to any tilt he is around for.

Do I think we can still win the premiership in 2019 or 2020 if we continue in the current direction? Yes. Do I think Ken is an amazing coach? No, I don’t really care whether he is or not. One coach or player hardly matters in the scheme of a whole club, so yes neither would Ryder really.

If we sack him and promote a Longmuire or Chris Scott it could be the edge we need, if we sack him and bring in a Malthouse and they clean out good players and staff we could be a basket case for years. I’d rather see Koch gone before Ken because at least Ken isn’t going to sack himself to save his job and appoint someone worse.

If we are still **** in a month I’ll take the chance of a Malthouse though. Because if we aren’t good enough with Dixon, Wines, Gray, Hartlett and Jonas back and in form (EDIT: just to clarify by “in form” I mean back for more than a week to adjust, not that if they aren’t playing well its an excuse) I’d hold more than just Ken accountable.
There’s been zero indication that Hinkley could be booted this year.

I find your belief we could win a premiership in 19/20 if we continue in this direction extremely optimistic
 

Janus

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Hinkley prefers incumbents

Hinkley traditionally is slow to reward bigs and quick to drop them

Hinkley will be under even more pressure to win games next year and that usually means less risk taking with blooding talls and more relying on older players

At some point Rucks need to play ruck to develop. Not full forward , forward pocket or watching from the pine.
Let's see:

Tom Jonas - best 22 from 2013.

Alipate Carlile - best 22 in 2013-2014, got injured in 2015 and retired.

Jackson Trengove - best 22 in 2013, moved to forward line in 2017.

Jack Hombsch - 6 games in 2013, best 22 from 2014 to 2015, injured in 2016.

Tom Clurey - 1 game in 2014, 8 games in 2015, 9 games in 2016, best 22 from 2017.

Dougal Howard - 6 games in 2016, did ACL, 4 games in 2017, best 22 in 2018, learned different way to defend, best 22 in 2019.

Todd Marshall - 3 games in 2017, 7 games in 2018, started in best 22 in 2019 but faded and has played 6 out of 11 games.

Billy Frampton - 1 game in 2018, 2 games in 2019.

Peter Ladhams - 1 game in 2019.

So Clurey and Howard have developed into best 22 players. There's no bias...it's just how Hinkley operates. He rewards players for reaching a milestone by giving them a game when they are ready after a spot becomes available, and then sets the milestone to being better than the incumbent in the position so the team actually improves in performance.

When Hombsch replaced Carlile in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Clurey replaced Hombsch in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Howard replaced Trengove in the back line in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Marshall replaced Trengove in the forward line in the best 22, it was a good call.

We are just going through the same stage with the forward line and the rucks now. People are just impatient because they think that development is some linear progression. It's not like the backline is going anywhere.
 

Leaveit2charlie

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I don’t think that Ken stays here unless we have a great second half of 2019. I honestly think it’s incredibly likely he is gone a month from now at this point.

And no Ladhams or Hayes doesn’t preclude premierships, but considering that Ryder has been the best ruckman in the country in the past I’d say he could be important to any tilt he is around for.

Do I think we can still win the premiership in 2019 or 2020 if we continue in the current direction? Yes. Do I think Ken is an amazing coach? No, I don’t really care whether he is or not. One coach or player hardly matters in the scheme of a whole club, so yes neither would Ryder really.

If we sack him and promote a Longmuire or Chris Scott it could be the edge we need, if we sack him and bring in a Malthouse and they clean out good players and staff we could be a basket case for years. I’d rather see Koch gone before Ken because at least Ken isn’t going to sack himself to save his job and appoint someone worse.

If we are still **** in a month I’ll take the chance of a Malthouse though. Because if we aren’t good enough with Dixon, Wines, Gray, Hartlett and Jonas back and in form (EDIT: just to clarify by “in form” I mean back for more than a week to adjust, not that if they aren’t playing well its an excuse) I’d hold more than just Ken accountable.
Would go Jack before Malthouse.
 

philthy05

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Let's see:

Tom Jonas - best 22 from 2013.

Alipate Carlile - best 22 in 2013-2014, got injured in 2015 and retired.

Jackson Trengove - best 22 in 2013, moved to forward line in 2017.

Jack Hombsch - 6 games in 2013, best 22 from 2014 to 2015, injured in 2016.

Tom Clurey - 1 game in 2014, 8 games in 2015, 9 games in 2016, best 22 from 2017.

Dougal Howard - 6 games in 2016, did ACL, 4 games in 2017, best 22 in 2018, learned different way to defend, best 22 in 2019.

Todd Marshall - 3 games in 2017, 7 games in 2018, started in best 22 in 2019 but faded and has played 6 out of 11 games.

Billy Frampton - 1 game in 2018, 2 games in 2019.

Peter Ladhams - 1 game in 2019.

So Clurey and Howard have developed into best 22 players. There's no bias...it's just how Hinkley operates. He rewards players for reaching a milestone by giving them a game when they are ready after a spot becomes available, and then sets the milestone to being better than the incumbent in the position so the team actually improves in performance.

When Hombsch replaced Carlile in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Clurey replaced Hombsch in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Howard replaced Trengove in the back line in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Marshall replaced Trengove in the forward line in the best 22, it was a good call.

We are just going through the same stage with the forward line and the rucks now. People are just impatient because they think that development is some linear progression. It's not like the backline is going anywhere.
Because Hinkley stalling debuting each of these guys is why they are the players they are now?

Or if he hadn’t of waited so long in each case clurey and Howard would have more games under their belt and be better is another way to look at it. I mean does anyone here expect that clurey or Howard will go backwards in 20 games time? So why wouldn’t an extra x amount of games into them at this point be beneficial? The answer is of course it would be but you sometimes have to sacrifice getting games into the young for success now but what success have we had? Not a skerrick of it in that time.

And what superstars we’ve had holding them out.

I struggle to name 3 key defenders we’ve had together in one peak fit at the same time between 2005-2018 to even know how we possibly could have had 3 defenders holding out getting games into hombsch clurey or Howard.

Don’t even get me started on the forward line.

Hinkleys stalling their debuts isn’t remotely responsible for the development of those kids to what they are today. He simply prefers incumbents, and prefers smaller running players. The you must be this good bar is set differently for talls than smalls and it’s not for the betterment of the team or the players.
 

Kiss from a Rozee

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There’s been zero indication that Hinkley could be booted this year.

I find your belief we could win a premiership in 19/20 if we continue in this direction extremely optimistic
For context I think any of the current top 10 sides could win it from here. I think any of about 10 sides could have won it last year as well.

I think there is a ****load of luck involved in competitive sports. Particularly in a knockout competition like the AFL.
 

PA88

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Well said.

We used to laugh at the WWT type clubs who used to change their coach and their jumper as often as we changed our underwear.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
After the War we mainly had continual success where prompt change wasn't necessary. Prior to Fos and Cahill we moved on senior coaches promptly if they weren't getting results. We had coaches for one or two years.
 

Janus

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Because Hinkley stalling debuting each of these guys is why they are the players they are now?

Or if he hadn’t of waited so long in each case clurey and Howard would have more games under their belt and be better is another way to look at it. I mean does anyone here expect that clurey or Howard will go backwards in 20 games time? So why wouldn’t an extra x amount of games into them at this point be beneficial? The answer is of course it would be but you sometimes have to sacrifice getting games into the young for success now but what success have we had? Not a skerrick of it in that time.

And what superstars we’ve had holding them out.

I struggle to name 3 key defenders we’ve had together in one peak fit at the same time between 2005-2018 to even know how we possibly could have had 3 defenders holding out getting games into hombsch clurey or Howard.

Don’t even get me started on the forward line.

Hinkleys stalling their debuts isn’t remotely responsible for the development of those kids to what they are today. He simply prefers incumbents, and prefers smaller running players. The you must be this good bar is set differently for talls than smalls and it’s not for the betterment of the team or the players.
The best season we've had since 2007 was 2014.

Carlile (27), Hombsch (21), Jonas (23) and Trengove (24) were the main defenders then. These were their averages per game (Carlile, Hombsch, Jonas and Trengove):

Kicks - 6.6, 8.5, 8.6, 5.9
Handballs - 5.6, 5.1, 6.5, 7.7
Marks - 3.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.5
Tackles - 2.0, 2.4, 2.2, 2.2
Inside 50s - 0.8, 1.1, 1.6, 1.4
Goal Assists - 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0
Contested Possessions - 4.3, 4.1, 4.8, 6.7
Uncontested Possessions - 7.7, 9.4, 10.2, 6.5
Effective Disposals - 9.1, 10.8, 12.1, 10.1
Contested Marks - 0.9, 0.4, 0.6, 0.9
Rebound 50s - 1.9, 1.8, 1.9, 1.1

Compare that to Jonas (28), Clurey (25), Howard (23) and Lienert (24) this year:

Kicks - 11.0, 9.4, 9.0, 16.2
Handballs - 5.1, 3.2, 4.7, 5.5
Marks - 6.0, 4.8, 5.3, 6.7
Tackles - 2.0, 1.8, 1.8, 1.5
Inside 50s - 1.0, 0.9, 1.4, 2.2
Goal Assists - 0, 0.1, 0, 0.2
Contested Possessions - 5.0, 4.3, 5.3, 4.7
Uncontested Possessions - 10.6, 7.2, 8.3, 15.0
Effective Disposals - 13.1, 10.4, 10.9, 17.3
Contested Marks - 0.6, 1.1, 1.4, 0
Rebound 50s - 3.3, 3.3, 2.9, 6.5

In pretty much every single statistical category, the 2019 players are better, even though the game style has changed from a back half team (slingshot) to a forward half team (press). This is the difference between a preliminary finalist calibre team and a premiership calibre team.

That's why I say wait for some continuity in the back line and get Dixon back in the side before you start judging whether this season is a write off or not.
 

tribey

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After the War we mainly had continual success where prompt change wasn't necessary. Prior to Fos and Cahill we moved on senior coaches promptly if they weren't getting results. We had coaches for one or two years.
There have been titanic figures of PAFC history who’ve been sacked/not renewed despite far greater successes.

But when you’re benchmarking against 2010-12 instead of 1870-Present you’re doomed to accept slop in perpetuity.
 
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